Date: Tuesday, 25th November 2025 Ref: CBN/MPC/COM/160/303 Attention: News Editors/Gentlemen of the Press

MONETARY POLICY RATE RETAINED AT 27.0 PER CENT

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) held its 303rd meeting on November 24 and 25, 2025. The Committee reviewed key developments in the global and domestic economies, including the risks to the outlook. All the twelve (12) members of the Committee were in attendance.

Decisions of the MPC

The Committee decided by a majority vote, to maintain the current monetary policy stance with an adjustment to the corridor as follows:

1. Retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.0 per cent.
2. Adjust the Standing Facility corridor around the MPR at +50/-450 basis points.
3. Retain the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) for Deposit Money Banks at 45.00 per cent, Merchant Banks at 16.00 per cent, and 75.00 per cent for non-TSA public sector deposits.
4. Keep the Liquidity Ratio unchanged at 30.00 per cent.

The Committee's decision was underpinned by the need to sustain the progress made so far towards achieving low and stable inflation. The MPC reaffirmed its commitment to a data-driven assessment of developments and outlook to guide future policy decisions.

Considerations

The Committee welcomed the continued deceleration in headline inflation (year-on-year) in October 2025, for the 7th consecutive month. This favourable development resulted from several factors, including sustained monetary policy tightening, stable exchange rate, increased capital inflows, and surplus current account balance. In addition, the relative stability in the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and improved food supply, supported the pace of disinflation. However, headline inflation remains high at double digit requiring sustained efforts toward moderating it further.

The Committee was, therefore, of the view that the steady deceleration in inflation across the three measures (headline, core and food) in October 2025, suggests that the lagged impact of previous tight policy measures is expected to continue in the near term. Thus, maintaining the current stance of policy, amidst lingering global uncertainties, would allow the effect of previous policy rate hikes to sufficiently transmit to the real economy and further reduce prices.

Members noted the robust performance of the external sector, evidenced by the surplus current account balance and steady accretion to reserves, which have contributed to stability in the exchange rate and moderation in inflation. The MPC also commended the collaborative effort of both the fiscal and monetary authorities, which led to the recent upgrade of Nigeria's sovereign credit rating by major rating agencies, and the delisting of the country from the FATF grey list. Members acknowledged that these positive developments would further boost investor confidence and improve capital flows to the economy.

The Committee noted with satisfaction, the sustained resilience of the banking system, with most financial soundness indicators remaining within regulatory thresholds. Members also acknowledged the substantial progress in the ongoing recapitalization programme, with sixteen (16) banks achieving full compliance with the revised capital requirements. The Committee, thus, urged the Bank to ensure a successful implementation and conclusion of the programme.

Price and Other Domestic Developments

Headline inflation (year-on-year) further declined to 16.05 per cent in October 2025, from 18.02 per cent in September, driven by a moderation in both food and core inflation. Food inflation fell significantly to 13.12 per cent in October 2025 from 16.87 per cent in the preceding month, reflecting improved domestic food supply, stable exchange rate and base effect.

Similarly, core inflation slowed to 18.69 per cent (year-on-year) in October 2025, from 19.53 per cent in the preceding month, owing largely to a decline in the price of furnishing & household maintenance.

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2025 sustained its positive trajectory, evidenced by the growth rate of 4.23 per cent (year-on-year), compared with 3.13 per cent in the first quarter of 2025. In addition, the Purchasing Manager's Index increased significantly to 56.4 points in November 2025, the highest in the last five years, pointing to a more positive growth outlook for the third and fourth quarters of 2025.

Gross external reserves increased by 9.19 per cent, reaching a high of US$46.70 billion on November 14, 2025, from US$42.77 billion at end-September 2025, sufficient to cover 10.3 months of import for goods and services.

Global Developments

Global output is projected to recover in the near to medium term, underpinned by improved trade negotiations, accommodative monetary policy especially in Advanced Economies and easing geopolitical tension. However, headwinds to the outlook include the potential for increasing protectionism, geoeconomic fragmentation and likely resurgence of trade tensions between the US and its major trading partners.

Global inflation is expected to maintain a steady decline through 2026, on the back of the combined impact of past monetary tightening, gradual stabilization of the global supply chain and softening commodity prices. Inflation is, however, projected to remain above pre-Pandemic levels in the near term.

Outlook

The Committee's forecast indicates a sustained disinflation in the near term, to be largely driven by the lagged impact of previous monetary policy tightening measures, supported by the continued stability in the foreign exchange market. In addition, the ongoing seasonal harvest cycle is expected to boost local food supply, and further moderate food prices.

The MPC reaffirmed its commitment to evidence-based policy approach towards achieving the Bank's mandate of price and financial system stability.

The next meeting of the Committee is scheduled for Monday, 23rd and Tuesday, 24th February 2026. Thank you.

Olayemi Cardoso Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria November 25, 2025.

PERSONAL STATEMENTS BY THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE MEMBERS

MPC MEETING NOVEMBER 24 – 25, 2025

1. AKU PAULINE ODINKEMELU

INTRODUCTION

I vote to reduce the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points from 27.00 per cent to 26.50 per cent, adjust the asymmetric corridor around the MPR to +50/-450 basis points, retain the Cash Reserve Ratio for commercial banks at 45 per cent, merchant banks at 16 per cent, and 75 per cent CRR on non-TSA public sector deposits, and retain Liquidity Ratio at 30.00 per cent. My decision is influenced by the following developments:

ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONTEXT

GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS

The October 2025 WEO projects a slowing global expansion, with growth at 3.2 per cent in 2025 and 3.1 per cent in 2026. This modest pace reflects a world adjusting to a landscape marked by greater protectionism and economic fragmentation. While global headline inflation is expected to decline further, it will likely remain above target in some countries.

Overall, growth forecast remains dim, and risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside. Prolonged uncertainty and an escalation of protectionist measures threaten to further hinder activity. Specific vulnerabilities include larger-than-expected labour supply shocks, particularly acute in ageing economies with skill shortages alongside fiscal strains and financial market fragilities. These could interact with higher borrowing costs and increased rollover risks for sovereigns. Additional threats to macro-financial stability include an abrupt repricing of technology stocks and mounting pressure on the independence of key economic institutions, which could undermine sound policymaking.

Growth trajectories are also diverging across country groups. Advanced economies are projected to moderate to 1.6 per cent in 2025 and remain steady at that rate in 2026. Meanwhile, growth in Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) is expected to ease from 4.3 per cent in 2024 to 4.2 per cent in 2025 and 4.0 per cent in 2026. Sub-Saharan Africa's forecast has been revised downward to 3.9 per cent for 2025, with a rebound to 4.3 per cent anticipated in 2026.

This highly divergent and fragile outlook underscores the urgent need for coordinated multi-level global action to address primary threats, notably geopolitical tensions and trade restrictions. To navigate a global economy in flux and restore confidence, policymakers must implement a coherent strategy built on credible, transparent, and sustainable policies. This strategy should integrate proactive trade diplomacy with macroeconomic adjustments, rebuild fiscal buffers to manage vulnerabilities, preserve central banks' independence for price and financial stability, and accelerate structural reforms to strengthen long-term growth.

Global headline inflation is expected to continue its downward trajectory but faces mounting headwinds and increasing divergences across regions. The IMF's October 2025 forecast projects a decline from 5.8 per cent in 2024 to 4.2 per cent in 2025 and 3.7 per cent in 2026, remaining above most advanced-economy central bank targets. This moderating trend is supported by a projected decline in commodity prices and some stabilization in supply chains. However, the disinflation process is becoming more fragile and uneven, with significant risks now tilting to the upside.

This is particularly evident in the diverging outlooks for advanced and emerging economies. In advanced economies, inflation is projected to ease modestly from 2.6 per cent in 2024 to 2.5 per cent in 2025 and 2.2 per cent in 2026. Notably, the forecast for the United States has been revised upward due to emerging signs that tariffs and associated supply-chain rewiring are beginning to pass through to consumer prices, threatening to slow the pace of disinflation.

Meanwhile, inflation in EMDEs is expected to decline from 7.9 per cent in 2024 to 5.3 per cent in 2025 and 4.7 per cent in 2026. While this represents progress, the level remains elevated and the path is fraught with persistent risks. These include exchange rate pressures, infrastructure gaps, and climate-related shocks. Furthermore, the landscape is now complicated by new, potent upside risks: escalating protectionist trade measures, which act as a supply shock; potential labor supply shocks from restrictive immigration policies; and mounting fiscal vulnerabilities that could interact with financial market fragilities. Eroding confidence in the independence of key economic institutions also presents a material risk to price stability.

DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK

In line with the rebasing of Nigeria's national accounts to a 2019 base year, real GDP grew by 3.98 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025. However, 4.23 per cent (year-on-year) was recorded in the second quarter of 2025 using the previous methodology. The Q3 2025 growth was led by a broad-based acceleration in the Agriculture and Industry sectors, which more than offset a modest slowdown in the dominant Services sector. The Services sector continues to account for most of the output, but the recent performance highlights a more balanced growth contribution from productive sectors.

Nigeria's recent growth in agriculture and industry is vital for sustained easing prices and reducing pressure on interest rates, while also strengthening economic resilience. However, these gains remain at risk due to persistent insecurity, which disrupts production and deters investment.

Headline Inflation (year-on-year) eased to 16.05 per cent in October 2025, the lowest in five years and the seventh consecutive monthly slowdown. This trend was driven by a continued drop in food inflation, supported by strong harvests, and a fifth straight month of decline in core inflation.

The exchange rate remained stable, supported by rising capital inflows and a persistent current account surplus. External reserves grew for the third consecutive month, reaching US$43.20 billion in October 2025. This level equates to 8.3 months of import cover, significantly strengthening the economy's buffer against external shocks and underscoring sustained confidence among investors and markets.

RATIONALE FOR DECISION & POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Global developments present a fragile and fragmented economic landscape. The October 2025 WEO projects a slowing global growth at 3.2 per cent in 2025 and 3.1 per cent in 2026. While global headline inflation is on a downward trajectory, it remains above target in many countries, and significant upside risks persist, notably from escalating protectionist trade measures, fiscal vulnerabilities, and potential labour supply shocks. In this context of subdued global growth and heightened uncertainty, domestic policy space is constrained, underscoring the need for credible and sustainable policy frameworks.

Against this backdrop, Nigeria's recent economic performance provides a compelling rationale for a calibrated policy adjustment. Domestically, the disinflation trend is now entrenched and broad-based. Headline inflation has declined for seven consecutive months to a five-year low of 16.05 per cent in October 2025, driven by a sustained drop in food prices, supported by strong harvests and a steady decline in core inflation. Concurrently, external stability has markedly improved. The naira exchange rate has stabilized, bolstered by significant capital inflows, a persistent current account surplus, and robust external reserves of $43.20 billion, providing a formidable 8.3 months of import cover. Furthermore, Nigeria's economic momentum is shifting favourably. Q3 2025 GDP growth of 3.98 per cent was underpinned by a broad-based acceleration in the critical Agriculture and Industry sectors, signalling a move toward more balanced and resilient growth.

A 50bps reduction in the MPR at this juncture is a prudent, forward-looking adjustment. It acknowledges the hard-won gains in price stability and external resilience, providing a measured stimulus to support this nascent productive sector recovery without jeopardizing the credibility of the disinflation process.

The decision to retain tight prudential ratios (CRR, LR) is crucial. It ensures that systemic liquidity remains controlled, anchoring inflationary expectations and preventing any premature flood of liquidity that could undermine exchange rate stability. The asymmetric corridor adjustment (+50/-450 bps) actively discourages banks from parking excess funds at the Bank's standing deposit facility, incentivizing them instead to channel liquidity toward private sector lending to support growth in the critical sectors of the economic such as agriculture and industry.

This policy-mix modest easing paired with stringent reserve requirements strikes a necessary balance. It signals a cautious pivot toward supporting domestic output and employment, while firmly maintaining the defensive buffers needed to shield the economy from persistent domestic insecurity and volatile global financial conditions. The primary implication is a carefully managed reduction in the cost of credit for the real economy, aimed at consolidating growth in productive sectors without reigniting inflationary and exchange rate pressures.

CONCLUSION

Based on current developments, I conclude that the improving trends in inflation, external reserves, and productive sector growth provide a window for a cautious policy adjustment. A modest 50 bps MPR reduction, combined with a liquidity-steering asymmetric corridor and maintained reserve ratios, offers a balanced path forward. This stance supports domestic economic momentum while preserving the defensive buffers necessary to manage ongoing risks from insecurity, global volatility, and potential inflationary pressures, thereby safeguarding macroeconomic stability.

2. ALOYSIUS UCHE ORDU

Introduction

I voted as follows:

1. Reduce the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points to 26.50 per cent.
2. Adjust the Standing Facilities corridor around the MPR to +50/-450 basis points.
3. Maintain the 45 per cent CRR for commercial banks, the 16 per cent for merchant 16 percent, and the 75 per cent for non-TSA public sector deposits.
4. Keep the Liquidity Ratio unchanged at 30.00 percent.

Economic and Financial Developments

• Global Developments

The November 2025 MPC meeting convened against a backdrop of easing global uncertainties and the resolution of the U.S. political standoff that culminated in the end of a protracted government shutdown. Geopolitical tensions have moderated, following the UN's endorsement of President Trump's 20-point comprehensive plan on November 17 to end the Gaza conflict, alongside his diplomatic engagements with Presidents Putin and Xi Jinping, and Prime Minister Modi, and renewed efforts to advance a 28-point peace framework for the Russia-Ukraine war. Additional developments, including the renegotiation of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), have reinforced a sense of improving global stability.

Monetary policy responses have mirrored these shifts. Major central banks have embarked on a cautious easing cycle. Among advanced economies, the U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points in October to 4 percent, while the Bank of Canada reduced its benchmark rate to 2.75 percent. The Bank of England is widely expected to follow suit. Similar trends are evident in emerging markets: Kenya cut rates by 25 bps to 9.25 percent, South Africa by 25 bps to 6.75 percent, and Egypt by 100 bps to 21 percent. These synchronized moves, driven by global disinflationary pressures, are anticipated to support output recovery. This outlook aligns with the IMF's upward revision of global growth to 3.2 percent from 3.0 percent, with emerging and developing economies projected to expand by 4.2 percent compared to 1.5 percent for advanced economies. Consensus suggests that the disinflationary trend observed in 2025 will persist into 2026.

The recent U.S. government shutdown (October 1-November 12), triggered by partisan disputes over appropriations and healthcare subsidies, introduced temporary uncertainty, disrupting data releases and fuelling safe-haven demand for gold, while undermining the dollar. Nevertheless, the growth impact is expected to dissipate in the near term, with U.S. GDP projected to rebound strongly—between 3 and 4 percent—in Q1 2026, defying earlier consensus forecasts.

While consecutive rate cuts by the Fed are expected to bolster employment and growth, the combination of lower rates, fiscal strain, policy ambiguity, and China's gradual divestment of U.S. assets could temper demand for Treasuries. Notably, foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries declined marginally in September, from USD 9.262 trillion to USD 9.249 trillion. This shift may create opportunities for capital inflows into emerging markets, including Nigeria.

• Domestic Development

Output: Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicates that the Nigerian economy sustained its growth momentum in Q2 2025, expanding by 4.23 percent—up from 3.48 percent in Q2 2024 and 3.13 percent in Q1 2025. The performance was broad-based, driven by a strong rebound in the oil sector, which surged by 20.48 percent, alongside continued resilience in information and communication, crop production, real estate, financial services, insurance, and trade sub-sectors. While this trajectory underscores steady progress, it falls short of the growth threshold required to significantly reduce poverty. As indicated in my previous statements, achieving inclusive prosperity in Nigeria will require real output growth of at least 7 percent per year for over a decade.

The near-term outlook remains positive. Growth is projected at 4.62 percent in Q3 2025 and 4.27 percent for full-year 2025. This optimism is reinforced by the composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), which expanded for the 11th consecutive month to 55.4 points in October, from 54.0 points in August—signalling sustained business confidence. Continued implementation of structural reforms in both monetary and fiscal policy spaces will be critical to maintaining this trajectory.

Inflation: Consistent with projections at the September MPC meeting, price pressures have eased for the eighth consecutive month since March 2025. Headline inflation declined to 16.02 percent in October from 18.02 percent in September, supported by tight monetary policy, exchange rate stability, structural reforms, and fiscal consolidation measures. Food inflation softened markedly to 13.12 percent from 16.87 percent, reflecting improved domestic supply and rising food imports amid a stable exchange rate. Staff estimates suggest further moderation to 15.02 percent in November, driven by sustained currency stability, stable fuel prices, and the lagged impact of monetary tightening.

Monetary and Financial Developments: The monetary base expanded by 12.15 percent year-to-date, reaching #36.64 trillion at end-October 2025 from #32.67 trillion in December 2024, contributing to moderate broad money growth with minimal inflationary risk. Liquidity management through open market operations remained effective, anchoring short-term rates within the policy corridor. Equity market performance was mixed: the All-Share Index (ASI) and market capitalization declined month-on-month by 2.56 percent and 2.36 percent, respectively, amid uncertainties over tax reforms and corporate earnings. However, year-on-year gains exceeded 40 percent, reflecting robust investor participation and improved macroeconomic sentiment. The ongoing bank recapitalization program is progressing steadily, with several institutions meeting capital requirements ahead of the March 2026 deadline. Financial soundness indicators confirm that the banking sector remains resilient and stable.

Fiscal Developments: Fiscal uncertainty persists with the imminent expiration of the 2025 Appropriation Act and the absence of a proposed 2026 budget. The extension of capital outlay implementation under the 2024 budget from June to December 2025 raises concerns about overlapping fiscal cycles and delayed releases, which could dampen business confidence and investment decisions. On the positive side, federation revenue has improved despite weaker global oil prices, supported by strong non-oil receipts. VAT collections in Q2 2025 totalled #2.06 trillion—a 32.15 percent increase over Q2 2024—while monthly inflows to the Federation Account have averaged over #2 trillion since July. Nonetheless, revenue remains below target, underscoring the need for enhanced mobilization and fiscal transparency. Persistent delays in fiscal reporting, particularly at subnational levels, continue to obscure policy assessment and hinder investment planning.

Public debt rose from #121.67 trillion in Q1 2024 to #152.40 trillion in Q2 2025 (33.98 percent of GDP) but remains within the 60 percent debt ceiling. Investor confidence appears intact, as sovereign debt instruments dominate fixed-income market activity. However, rising debt service obligations could strain fiscal resources, amplifying pressures on the budget. Strengthening revenue generation and improving transparency in fiscal operations remain pivotal to safeguarding fiscal sustainability.

External Developments: Recent policy actions have continued to strengthen Nigeria's external position, sustaining capital inflows and boosting foreign reserves to USD 45.60 billion as of November 18, 2025, from USD 42.77 billion at end-September. Portfolio investment accounted for 89.61 percent of total capital flows, compared to a modest 1.56 percent from foreign direct investment (FDI). This underscores the need for structural reforms to complement monetary policy in attracting more permanent and transformative foreign capital for domestic development. Remittance inflows also improved significantly, rising to USD 485.65 million from USD 313.72 million in September, reflecting the effectiveness of reforms in the remittance subsector.

Further supporting the narrative of a stronger external position, the overall balance of payments deficit narrowed sharply to USD 0.27 billion in Q2 2025 from USD 2.77 billion in Q1, aided by higher reserve assets and improvements in the current account balance. The naira sustained its resilience, appreciating by 1.89 percent and 2.26 percent at the official and BDC segments in October, with notable convergence between both rates. The diminishing premium signals improved market liquidity and effective price discovery mechanisms. Autonomous sources continued to dominate foreign exchange inflows in October, as the FX market deepened and direct interventions were scaled back.

Risks and Outlook: Despite easing price pressures globally, uncertainties persist, warranting cautious optimism regarding the outlook for global growth. This reinforces the need for vigilance in insulating the domestic economy and preserving recent policy gains. On the domestic front, fiscal risks remain elevated. Delays in presenting the 2026 Appropriation Act could unsettle private sector expectations, weaken investor confidence, and heighten the risk of extra-budgetary spending. These risks may be compounded by spending pressures associated with the onset of the 2027 election cycle, with implications for liquidity conditions and inflation outlook. Renewed insecurity in parts of the country also poses downside risks to the otherwise optimistic macroeconomic outlook. Policy must therefore prioritize transparency, accountability, and the removal of structural bottlenecks to sustain investor confidence.

Rationale for Vote: Based on my assessment of global and domestic conditions, Nigeria is well-positioned to continue to attract capital, supporting robust foreign reserves and exchange rate stability. This outlook, however, hinges on strict adherence to FX reforms, effective policy coordination, and avoidance of disruptive surprises. The economy has recorded broad-based growth, eight consecutive months of disinflation, and a stable, strengthening naira-developments that have significantly altered the macroeconomic narrative.

Nevertheless, I am conscious of the fact that inflation remains a major challenge and the task of fighting inflation is a marathon, not a sprint. We must learn the lessons of other countries which shows that lowering inflation from a high to a sustainable level takes time, often over a period of three to five years. Some countries have celebrated victory over inflation and prematurely loosened policy only to reverse course.

This is thus not a time for rapid loosening of policy. While welcoming the moderation in price pressures, we should continue to signal our tight policy stance in the period ahead. We must persevere, continue to demonstrate policy credibility and consistency; keep our eyes on the prize: macroeconomic stability and stronger growth brought about by defeating inflation.

The challenge now is to consolidate on the gains made and translate them into jobs, productivity, and inclusive growth. Against this backdrop, I support a cautious easing stance and an adjustment of the symmetric corridor to foster credit intermediation and investment, thereby accelerating growth. At this critical inflection point, policy adjustments must remain measured, balancing the imperative of supporting growth with the need to contain inflationary risks.

3. BALA MOH'D BELLO MON

Introduction

At the November 2025 Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, following a thorough review of recent global and domestic macroeconomic developments and a robust assessment of available data, I voted to maintain the current stance of monetary policy, with an adjustment to the corridor as follows:

1. Retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.0 per cent.
2. Adjust the Standing Facility corridor around the MPR at +50/-450 basis points.
3. Retain the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) for Deposit Money Banks at 45.00 per cent, Merchant Banks at 16.00 per cent, and 75.00 per cent for non-TSA public sector deposits.
4. Retain the Liquidity Ratio unchanged at 30.00 per cent.

Rationale

The November meeting provided an opportunity to evaluate the impact of previous monetary policy decisions on key macroeconomic indicators, reassess prevailing risks, and review the short- to medium-term outlook. Notably, remarkable gains have been recorded, including a steady decline in headline inflation, Nigeria's delisting from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list, upgraded sovereign credit ratings, stability in the naira exchange rate, significant accretion to external reserves, and a positive output growth trajectory. Preserving these gains remains a priority as 2025 draws to a close, considering lingering global and domestic risks. Ultimately, my decision was data-driven and evidence-based.

I note with delight recent reports by the National Bureau of Statistics showing further decline in headline inflation year-on-year for the seventh consecutive month to 16.05 per cent in October 2025, from 18.02 per cent in September. Food inflation also trended significantly downwards to 13.12 per cent in October 2025 from 16.87 per cent in the preceding month, while core inflation slowed to 18.69 per cent (year-on-year) in October 2025, from 19.53 per cent in the preceding month, owing largely to a decline in the price of furnishing & household maintenance.

The remarkable decline in headline inflation rate underscores the importance of policy consistency and collaborative efforts of the fiscal authority which helped ramp up food production, thus, bridging the supply-demand gap. Stability in the exchange rate and favourable base effects also contributed to the notable decline.

At the current inflation level, real yields (MPR less headline inflation) remain positive, a development that would bolster investor confidence and enhance economic expectations. Continued moderation in domestic prices is expected as monetary and fiscal policies remain coordinated, alongside stability in the exchange rate. Risk factors such as the traditional end-of-year surge in demand should, however, not be ignored.

While more recent numbers for real Gross Domestic Product (rGDP) are awaited, leading indicators such as the Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) indicate sustained positive economic momentum. The PMI increased significantly to 56.4 points in November 2025, the highest in the last five years, pointing to a stronger outlook for the third and fourth quarters of 2025. Recall that the rGDP for the second quarter of 2025 stood at 4.23 per cent (year-on-year), compared with 3.13 per cent in the first quarter of 2025, thus, maintaining its positive trajectory.

The strong economic performance is mirrored in the financial system, which continues to post robust soundness indicators despite the current tight stance of monetary policy. Staff reports to the Committee indicate considerable progress in the recapitalization programme, with sixteen (16) banks already in full compliance with the revised capital requirements. The exercise will further enhance banks' capacity to absorb risks and strengthen their role in supporting economic activity.

Gains of previous policy decisions are also reflected in key external sector indices. For the first time in several years, gross external reserves increased by 9.19 per cent, reaching a high of US$46.70 billion on November 14, 2025, from US$42.77 billion at end-September 2025, sufficient to cover 10.3 months of import for goods and services. The transparency in foreign exchange management policies and sustained macroeconomic stability are expected to further boost investor confidence, improve capital inflows, and generate positive pass-through effects to domestic prices.

At this point, I must acknowledge the collaborative efforts of the Central Bank of Nigeria, fiscal authority and other relevant agencies which led to the recent upgrade of Nigeria's sovereign ratings and delisting of Nigeria from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list. These developments would further enhance Nigeria's competitiveness globally and attract foreign capital with positive macroeconomic outcomes.

Conclusion

Overall, I recognize that the relative stability enjoyed by the Nigerian economy reflects the combined and individual potency of our past policy decisions. I am also convinced that the current levels of key policy parameters are suitable; this would prevent the disruption of on-going transmission of previous policies, especially the September 2025 MPC decision given the well-established policy lag effects. More so, the current level of real policy rate remains appropriate to balance the objectives of exchange rate stability, price stability and output stabilization without introducing disruptive policy shocks.

Notwithstanding persistent global risks, the continued improvement in key domestic fundamentals, particularly output and inflation, as well as external sector indicators, supports the conclusion that there is no immediate need to alter the current stance of monetary policy. Although inflation remains above the 6-9 per cent benchmark, it is on a downward trajectory, reflecting the effectiveness of ongoing efforts to address supply-side pressures. In addition, routine monetary sterilization continues to play a critical role in containing demand-induced inflation.

To further strengthen the Bank's sterilization operations and enhance the effectiveness of earlier policy actions, I consider an adjustment to the corridor around the MPR necessary. Accordingly, I vote for an adjustment to the Standing Facility corridor around the MPR.

4. BANDELE A.G. AMOO

In view of the recently observed developments in the domestic and external economies, I hereby vote as follows:

a) Reduce the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points to 26.5 per cent. b) Adjust the Standing Facility corridor around the MPR at +50/-450 basis points. c) Retain the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 45.0 per cent for Commercial Banks and 16.0 per cent for Merchant Banks. d) Retain the 75 per cent CRR on non-TSA public sector deposits. e) Retain the Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 30.0 per cent.

My decision was influenced by the following considerations.

1. Global Economic Developments

The global economic recovery persisted in the medium term, underpinned by improved trade negotiations, accommodative monetary policy especially in advanced economies and easing geopolitical tension. However, headwinds to the outlook include the potential for increasing protectionism, geoeconomic and trade fragmentation and likely resurgence of trade tensions between the US and its major trading partners. Though headline inflation in major advanced economies has eased further, core inflation persists, compelling central banks to maintain a cautious stance. The U.S Federal Reserve's continuous pause, alongside similar postures from the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE), reflects a global consensus. In view of these developments, the global monetary policy and financial conditions remain slightly accommodative.

2. Domestic Macroeconomic Developments

The domestic economy expanded by 4.58 per cent year-on-year, in Q3 2025, maintaining its positive growth trajectory and marking a modest acceleration from the 4.23 per cent growth recorded in Q2 2025. Resilient growth across trade, ICT, agriculture, and financial services continues to drive economic performance.

This performance underscores the resilience of the non-oil sector, which continues to serve as the primary engine of economic activity. Notably, growth was driven by Services (4.92%), Agriculture (2.15%), and a resurgent Manufacturing sector, which posted a growth of 1.88 per cent, indicating current gains from the ongoing structural reforms and improved foreign exchange availability for raw materials. This development was corroborated by the October 2025 composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), which rose to 55.40 compared with 54.00 in September 2025, indicating sustained expansion in economic activities for the eleventh consecutive month.

This growth is occurring alongside a continued disinflation trend. Headline inflation (year-on-year) slowed to 16.05 per cent in October from 18.02 per cent in the preceding month, on account of sustained increase in the supply of food, particularly, grains and tubers as well as decline in transportation costs which helped to drive down prices of many consumer items. This trend is supported by a slowdown in both food inflation and core inflation. While this disinflationary path is a key policy success, the pace remains gradual, and the current level of inflation is still profoundly constraining economic welfare and investment planning.

The banking system remains stable, sound and resilient. Many financial soundness indicators in respect of our financial system stood within approved benchmark levels. The successful recapitalisation of a substantial number of banks has strengthened the sector further. However, the transmission of systemic liquidity into broad-based productive credit remains suboptimal. Credit to the private sector (CPS) is growing marginally, sectoral concentration in oil & gas still subsists, manufacturing, and general commerce credit share remains excessive, crowding out credit to the agriculture and SMEs. The external sector shows resilience, with the current account surplus sustained by improved remittance inflows. The relative stability of the naira in recent weeks is encouraging but remains fragile.

3.0 My Concern

My main concern this period is that, while the 75 per cent CRR on non-TSA public sector deposits introduced in September 2025 has begun to sterilise FAAC-induced liquidity, fiscal injections remain another potent source of excess liquidity. Excessive liquidity, if not well managed can pose a latent threat to exchange rate stability and the disinflation success. The approaching 2026 budget cycle and the early shadow of the 2027 electoral season, which may fuel higher government consumption/expenditure, underscore the imperative for monetary policy to maintain a firm, anti-inflationary stance to prevent a derailment of our hard-won disinflation gains. That was the reason I chose a modest slack in policy rate to encourage financial sector operators channel credit to productive sectors to boost aggregate production during the festive seasons.

Nigeria stands at an important juncture today as fundamental macroeconomic indices continue to improve: policy reforms have begun to restore investor trust, general consumer prices are declining, non-oil export basket and procedure is improving, reserves are recovering, and external liquidity conditions are gradually improving. So far, the durability of these gains depends on whether the economy can transit away from random inflows toward a foundation built on economic productivity, institutional credibility, and export diversification. Achieving this shift will transform Nigeria's external reserves from a fragile buffer into a strategic asset capable of supporting macroeconomic stability, long-term growth, and sustained economic resilience.

To this end, I am of the opinion that a bold, strategic hold for most parameters is the most prudent policy action at this meeting. A small ease in MPR, strongly reinforced by adjusted rate corridors will strengthen critical sectors and help to moderate the risk of high inflation expectations. Also, a rate ease could improve the growth momentum and boost the current positive sentiment in the capital market.

Therefore, I voted to reduce the MPR to reaffirm our unwavering commitment to inclusive growth and price stability. The adjustment of the standing facility corridor to +50/-450 bps is a critical, complementary operational tool. Narrowing the deposit-taking window to -450bps reduce the incentive for banks to place idle liquidity with the CBN, enhancing the effectiveness of our intention to increase credit to real sector economy. I support retaining the CRR measures introduced in September. The 75 per cent CRR on non-TSA deposits is essential for continued sterilisation of public sector liquidity at its source. Maintaining the 45 per cent CRR for deposit money banks provides them the operational flexibility to manage this new regime and, over time, re-orient portfolios towards more productive lending.

4.0 Conclusion

The current policy mix supports the structural balance needed for economic growth. It allows previous policy actions more time to fully transmit through the Nigerian economy; it can further strengthen the moderation of fiscal-driven liquidity, helps sustain a tight monetary environment to further entrench the current disinflation trend.

We must remain vigilant by continuing to monitor the impact of these liquidity measures closely and stand ready to make adjustments the when necessary. I reiterate the need for strengthened collaboration with the fiscal authorities to ensure spending efficiency and to fast-track on-going structural reforms, particularly in power, agriculture, infrastructure and logistics, to address the supply-side drivers of inflation. Our communication must also remain clear and consistent to firmly anchor inflation expectations.

5. EMEM USORO

At the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) held on November 24 - 25, 2025, I voted to:

i. Retain the MPR at 27% ii. Adjust the Asymmetric Corridor from +250/-250 basis points to +50/-450 basis points around the MPR. iii. Retain the CRR for commercial banks deposits at 45%, a 75% CRR on non-TSA public deposit, CRR for merchant banks at 16%; and iv. Retain the LR at 30.0%.

This policy adjustment reflects my recognition of recent progress in macroeconomic stabilization, and the importance of maintaining financial system resilience amid moderating inflation and improving external conditions.

Recent developments in the global and domestic economy point to a cautiously improving macroeconomic environment, although characterised by persistent vulnerabilities that require a disciplined and forward-looking monetary policy stance. Externally, there has been a gradual easing in global inflation, supported by softening food and energy prices, and improvements in supply chain efficiency, supported in part by new technologies, better logistics architecture, and productivity gains from Al adoption. Business confidence indicators globally have strengthened, with Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) readings signalling expansion in both manufacturing and services, following earlier periods of contraction.

However, volatility persists as geopolitical concerns remain elevated, and major central banks continue to navigate complex policy trade-offs. Although major central banks have signalled caution regarding future policy directions, the global monetary environment is still relatively tight, with markets sensitive to unexpected policy signals and asset-price volatility. Commodity markets provide mixed signals, with crude oil prices declining due to weaker demand from China and robust non-OPEC supply, while gold prices have strengthened on account of flight-to-safety positions.

Within this challenging external environment, domestic indicators suggest momentum is gradually strengthening. High-frequency data show continued expansion in business activity, with industrial output moving from contraction to modest growth on the back of improved domestic demand and enhanced productivity in the oil sector. Inflation continues to moderate, with notable disinflation in the food component due to improved harvest conditions, easing logistics bottlenecks, and relative exchange-rate stability. Investor confidence appears stronger, reflected in risk-on sentiments. External buffers have strengthened, with gross reserves reaching about post-pandemic highs, supporting a more resilient FX market. Broad money supply grew, fuelled by an increase in net foreign assets, and improvements in reserve money. These gains indicate visible progress in stabilising the macroeconomic environment.

Notwithstanding the improvement, several pressure points remain evident. Inflation expectations are yet to be fully anchored, given that disinflation has so far been driven primarily by supply-side conditions rather than monetary transmission. The exchange rate, while currently stable, remains vulnerable to seasonal demand pressure, domestic security concerns, and shifts in global risk sentiment. Equally important is concerns around the sensitivity of foreign portfolio flows to external narratives, particularly recent geopolitical commentary and security-related statements from advanced economies, which can influence FX demand and investor confidence.

In addition, monetary and financial stability indicators present a mixed picture. On one hand, capital adequacy and liquidity ratios improved, supported by recapitalisation activities. On the other hand, asset quality deterioration and rising contagion exposure reflects growing liquidity preference among banks and uneven distribution of reserves. Empirical stress-test highlight the susceptibility of the banking system to moderate shocks, particularly given contagion exposure. These trends require carefully calibrated tools that recognise the endogenous nature of money and credit. From a policy perspective, liquidity conditions have improved following the introduction of the 75% CRR on non-TSA deposits. However, seasonal fiscal flows during December and January, along with election-related spending and end-of-year liquidity movements, pose risks to current conditions and could amplify the already existing imbalance, thus, placing pressure on both money-market rates and the exchange rate.

In view of these factors, maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance remains appropriate. Retaining the Monetary Policy Rate at 27% reinforces anti-inflation signalling and supports the disinflation trajectory without jeopardising recent gains. Adjusting the corridor is consistent with managing upward rate volatility and discouraging passive liquidity parking in the standing deposit window, while promoting interbank activity. This operational refinement aligns with the Committee's broader aim of controlled normalisation, helping maintain monetary discipline without imposing additional contraction on an economy.

Looking forward, my vote at the next meeting will depend on whether inflation expectations remain anchored given the expected base-effect rebound in the first quarter of 2026; FX stability is supported by adequate liquidity and external buffers, and whether credit transmission improves as the banking system conditions normalise. Thus, continuous monitoring of inflation expectations, FX stability, NPL evolution, and interbank liquidity distribution will be essential. Enhancing liquidity forecasting, refining CRR operations, and deploying targeted macroprudential interventions, rather than relying solely on interest-rate tools, will be critical to supporting financial stability and sustaining recovery.

6. LYDIA SHEHU JAFIYA

Introduction

At the 303rd meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), I voted to maintain all policy parameters at their extant levels:

1. Retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.0 per cent.
2. Retain the Standing Facilities corridor around the MPR at +250/-250 basis points.
3. Maintain the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) for Commercial Banks and Merchant Banks at 45.0 and16.0 per cent, respectively. Retain the CRR on non-TSA public sector deposits at 60.0 per cent.
4. Maintain the Liquidity Ratio at 30.0 per cent.

THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

Global economic growth is forecast to slow to 3.2 and 3.1 per cent in 2025 and 2026, respectively, (World Economic Outlook, October 2025). Though, slightly better than the June 2025 WEO projections, growth remains below the world's expectations. While better financial conditions and reduced controversies over tariffs provide strong impetus for growth, prolonged policy uncertainties, trade fragmentation, and fiscal vulnerabilities remain key risks to the global outlook.

Global headline inflation is projected to moderate to 4.2 and 3.7 per cent in 2025 and 2026, respectively, from 5.7 per cent in 2024 (WEO, October 2025). The outlook is on account of easing demand pressures, lower energy prices, moderating supply chain disruptions and de-escalation of geopolitical crisis. Inflation outcomes have shown divergences among major advanced economies. Likewise, in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDES) disinflation is expected to continue with notable variations across countries.

Global trade is forecast to grow by 0.3 percentage points to 2.9 percent in 2025 and 2026, apiece. This is supported by some clarity around tariff regimes, including renewed momentum of reforms across the globe and increased production enabled by artificial intelligence. Downside risks to global trade include increasing economic fragmentation, financial market fragility, labour supply shocks and lingering geopolitical tensions.

Financial conditions eased as major economies cut interest rates in response to inflation moderation. Exchange rates of several economies particularly in EMDEs improved as the US dollar fluctuated. Global debt rose in the second quarter of 2025 largely due to the spillover effects of accommodative fiscal and monetary policies associated with the Covid-19 pandemic, including debt service costs. Capital flows to EMDEs remained positive as Advanced Economies sustained monetary policy easing.

THE DOMESTIC ECONOMY

Real Gross Domestic Product (year-on-year) maintained an upward trajectory, following the growth rate of 4.23 per cent in the second quarter of 2025, compared with 3.13 per cent in the first quarter of 2025. Growth performance was supported by the improvement in the Composite Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) which increased to 56.4 index points in November 2025, above the 50.0 index points benchmark, signaling a sustained growth outlook for the subsequent quarters in 2025. Growth performance remained above the rate of growth of the population.

Headline inflation (year-on-year) declined to 16.05 per cent in October 2025, from 18.02 per cent in September, driven by a moderation in both food and core inflation. Food inflation (year-on-year) fell sharply to 13.12 per cent in October 2025 from 16.87 per cent in September on account of improved food supply, aided by the harvest season. Similarly, core inflation moderated to 18.69 per cent (year-on-year) in October 2025, from 19.53 per cent in the preceding month, owing largely to a stable exchange rate and improvement in domestic fuel supplies.

On the external sector, gross external reserves increased by 9.19 per cent, reaching a high of US$46.70 billion on November 14, 2025, from US$42.77 billion at end-September 2025. The reserves are adequate to cover 10.3 months of import of goods and services. The foreign exchange rate has remained stable, supported by improved market liquidity, enhanced policy coordination, and positive market sentiment.

The prudential indicators of the banking system are largely within regulatory requirements. The outlook is significantly positive given the success recorded with the banking system recapitalization exercise and the central bank's commitment to regulatory best practices and effective risk management.

CONSIDERATIONS FOR VOTING

The November 2025 MPC meeting was held against the backdrop of sustained improvement in domestic macroeconomic conditions, including rapidly moderating price levels, positive economic growth rate, continuous stability in the foreign exchange market, and comfortable external reserves position. Other developments include improved sovereign ratings by Fitch and Standard & Poor's, and the removal of Nigeria from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) Grey List, amongst others.

These achievements reflect the policy trade-offs undertaken by the monetary and fiscal authorities, which have improved public and market confidence by enhancing policy signaling, reducing uncertainty, and supporting conditions for a stable environment for sustainable economic growth.

It is noteworthy that, since its February 2024 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee has pursued a policy mix designed to balance competing objectives, particularly those of disinflation and growth acceleration. The rapid deceleration of inflation affirms the central bank's commitment to its price and monetary stability objective.

Although the recent stabilization in domestic macroeconomic conditions suggests that a reduction in the policy rate may be optimal, the available policy space remains constrained. However, with inflation still elevated at 16.05 per cent, there is need to tread cautiously as the risk to the outlook is on the upside.

Indeed, there is a need to remain data-driven and continue to assess the balance of risks and how they could impact the economy in the near to medium term, particularly given the volatile external environment. It is noteworthy that year-end festivities and pre-election activities are risk factors that could impact inflation in the near to medium term. Accordingly, it is appropriate to hold policy parameters at their current levels, while continuing to monitor emerging risks and adjust as necessary.

Overall, the fiscal authority remains committed to policy coordination, fiscal sustainability and structural reforms that creates room for predictable taxes and investment climate to boost economic growth and job creation.

7. LAMIDO ABUBAKAR YUGUDA

Policy Decision and Rationale

At the 303rd Monetary Policy Committee meeting held on November 24 and 25, 2025, I voted to:

a) reduce the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points to 26.50 percent; b) adjust the Standing Facility corridor to +50/-450 basis points around the MPR; c) retain the Cash Reserve Requirement at 45 percent for Deposit Money Banks, 16 percent for Merchant Banks, and 75 percent for non-TSA public sector deposits; and d) maintain the Liquidity Ratio at 30 percent.

The case for modest monetary easing at this juncture rests on compelling evidence of significant progress in the disinflation trajectory and improving macroeconomic conditions that warrant a carefully calibrated policy adjustment.

Economic Performance and Disinflation Progress

The most compelling argument for the rate reduction is the substantial disinflation achieved over recent months. Headline inflation declined sharply to 16.05 percent in October 2025 from 18.02 percent in September, marking the seventh consecutive month of decline. This represents over 4 percent reduction in headline inflation within a four-month window, reflecting the effective transmission of previous monetary policy tightening measures implemented at earlier meetings.

The disinflation has been broad-based across all inflation measures. Food inflation fell significantly to 13.12 percent in October from 16.87 percent in September, driven by improved domestic food supply and stable exchange rate conditions. Concurrently, core inflation moderated to 18.69 percent from 19.53 percent, primarily due to declining prices in furnishing and household maintenance categories.

Domestic Economic Conditions

Real economic activity demonstrates resilience with real GDP growth of 3.98 percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025. While this represents a deceleration from the 4.23 percent recorded in Q2 2025, it reflects a marked improvement over the 3.13 percent achieved in Q1 2025 and exceeds the 3.86 percent posted in Q3 2024. This sustained positive trajectory, despite the moderation, underscores the underlying strength of the economy and provides confidence in the growth outlook.

Growth has been broad-based across key non-oil sectors, which contributed 96.56 percent to real GDP. The services sector expanded by 4.15 percent and accounted for 53.02 percent of total real GDP, reflecting sustained strength in telecommunications, financial services, and real estate. Agriculture grew by 3.79 percent, while the industrial sector expanded by 3.77 percent. Overall, the non-oil sector grew by 3.91 percent in real terms, outperforming both the 3.79 percent recorded in Q3 2024 and the 3.64 percent achieved in Q2 2025.

The oil sector recorded real growth of 5.84 percent year-on-year in Q3 2025, with crude oil production averaging 1.64 million barrels per day, reflecting 11.6 percent year-on-year improvement compared to 1.47 million barrels per day in Q3 2024. However, oil sector growth decelerated sharply from the 20.46 percent expansion recorded in Q2 2025, and on a quarter-on-quarter basis, the sector contracted by 5.53 percent, reflecting the volatility characteristic of the oil industry.

The Purchasing Managers' Index reached 56.4 points in November 2025, the highest level in five years, signaling strengthened business activity and positive growth prospects for the remainder of 2025.

Broad money growth strengthened from 3.91 percent (year-to-date) in September to 5.01 percent in October 2025, supported largely by gains in net foreign assets

The external sector has remained robust, with gross external reserves rising by 4.52 percent to US$44.26 billion as of November 21, 2025, from US$42.35 billion at end-September. This level provides adequate cover for approximately 10.3 months of imports, reinforcing external stability. The stronger reserve position reflects a surplus current account balance and sustained capital inflows, which have supported exchange rate stability and contributed to the ongoing disinflationary trend.

Global Macroeconomic Environment

The global backdrop provides further support for monetary accommodation. The US Federal Reserve has initiated rate cuts in its policy cycle, and a weaker US dollar has emerged as global monetary policy shifts toward greater accommodation, particularly in advanced economies. These developments are expected to enhance foreign portfolio investment flows to Nigeria, particularly given the relative attractiveness of domestic yields and the recent sovereign credit rating upgrades from S&P and Fitch. The delisting of Nigeria from the FATF grey list further strengthens the investment climate and investor confidence.

Global inflation continues its steady decline trajectory, supported by past monetary tightening in major economies, gradual supply chain stabilization, and softening commodity prices. However, global uncertainty persists regarding protectionism, geoeconomic fragmentation, and potential trade tensions that could affect global demand.

Assessment of Previous Policy Actions and Near-term Outlook

The MPC's decision at its previous meeting to reduce the Cash Reserve Requirement by 500 basis points to 45 percent for Deposit Money Banks represented a significant injection of liquidity into the financial system. This substantial easing measure, which was only slightly dampened by the introduction of a 75 percent CRR on non-TSA public sector deposits (which affects only about 6 percent of total banking sector deposits), has provided considerable monetary accommodation.

However, given the steady deceleration in inflation and the lagged effects of previous policy tightening, there is merit in allowing a measured reduction in the MPR. Data indicate that the disinflationary process remains on track, supported by exchange rate stability, improved food supply conditions, and the anticipated seasonal harvest cycle expected to further moderate food prices.

Risk Factors and Considerations

Nevertheless, significant downside risks warrant close monitoring and potentially constrain further rate cuts. Exchange rate depreciation pressures remain, as persistent foreign exchange demand continues despite steady reserve accumulation and capital inflows. The volatility inherent in foreign portfolio investment flows, which have become a significant source of capital inflows, creates potential fragility in external stability.

On the domestic front, several concerns warrant attention. The substantial liquidity injection from the CRR reduction may create inflationary pressures if not carefully managed, particularly as the economy enters peak expenditure periods including election-related spending. Real yields on government securities remain negative, which could distort financial intermediation and investment decisions. The security situation in certain parts of the country continues to pose challenges to economic activity and agricultural production, while oil sector headwinds including the volatility in oil production and external demand limit the sector's contribution to growth.

The implementation of the recent tax and tariff regime, including the 15 percent import duty on oil products, presents uncertainty regarding real sector adjustment and its ultimate inflationary impact. These structural challenges suggest that underlying inflationary risks persist beneath the surface of current headline disinflation.

Conclusion

The modest 50 basis point rate reduction reflects a nuanced assessment of Nigeria's current economic position. The evidence of significant disinflation, resilient economic growth driven by broad-based non-oil sector expansion, improved external stability, and favorable global monetary conditions justifies a cautious move toward less restrictive policy. However, the decision must be weighed against the need to continue monitoring inflation developments, particularly regarding the potential for renewed pressure from fiscal spending, currency depreciation, or supply-side shocks. The MPC must remain vigilant in balancing the need to support economic growth with the overriding objective of achieving low and stable inflation, particularly given the persistent underlying risks that could reverse recent disinflation gains.

8. MUHAMMAD SANI ABDULLAHI

My Vote

The November 2025 meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) came at a crucial time, as the cumulative effects of earlier policy actions have begun to manifest in measurable improvements in key macroeconomic indicators: Headline inflation decelerated further in October, its seventh consecutive month of moderation; external reserves have strengthened significantly; real output has expanded for three straight quarters; and the exchange rates have remained broadly stable for over fourteen months. Collectively, these developments underscore growing traction in macroeconomic fundamentals and justify a contained data-driven approach to policy calibration.

In the last four meetings, I submitted that the overarching objective of safeguarding long-term macroeconomic stability remains paramount. At this 303rd meeting, however, the MPC is confronted with persistent excess liquidity in the banking system, evidenced by substantial placements at the standing deposit facility (SDF) window and compounded by the liquidity impact from maturing OMO bills.

This excess liquidity risks diluting the effectiveness of our tight monetary policy stance and undermines efforts to control inflation, requiring consideration of enhanced OMO operations and improved monitoring of monetary aggregates like M1 to preserve policy credibility. Accordingly, addressing the persistent excess liquidity in the banking system should remain a priority.

Data and their underlying drivers have continued to be the key guiding principles of my votes at all MPC meetings. Therefore, at this meeting, I will also be guided strictly by data, and the need to consolidate the current momentum to sustain credibility and foster growth-supportive measures that will enhance growth performance for the remainder of 2025 and throughout 2026, given policy lags.

In the current context, my assessment is that additional tightening at this stage could undermine the ongoing recovery by suppressing credit, raising borrowing costs, and discouraging investment. With the decision at previous meetings still gaining traction, maintaining the current stance allows the economy to consolidate these gains. This decision is consistent with my assessment of the current situation and strengthens confidence in the direction, impact, and effectiveness of the ongoing policy measures.

Specifically, I voted to:

1. Retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.00 per cent.
2. Adjust the Standing Facilities corridor around the MPR to +100/-450 basis points.
3. Retain the Cash Reserve Ratio of Deposit Money Banks at 45.0 per cent that of Merchant Banks at 16 per cent.
4. Retain a 75 per cent CRR on non-TSA public sector deposits.
5. Keep the Liquidity Ratio unchanged at 30.00 per cent.

My Considerations

Several of the constraints identified earlier in the year have largely abated, as reflected in recent macro-financial indicators. Headline inflation has begun to decelerate, exchange rate pressures have eased, and real output growth as well as consumer and business sentiment remain on a positive trajectory. The period also recorded upgrades in sovereign credit assessments by major rating agencies and Nigeria's removal from the FATF Grey List, further strengthening the macroeconomic risk profile.

At 27%, the monetary policy rate (MPR) remains sufficiently elevated and has directly impacted borrowing costs and yields during the year 2025. Analysis of key macroeconomic indicators suggest that the economy is responding gradually to previous tightening measures, and therefore no further action is warranted even currently. Additionally, evidence from price, output, and exchange-rate developments indicates that the current stance is appropriately restrictive. We have seen inflation slowing for the seventh consecutive month, an indication that policy transmission is underway. This generally pushed bond yields down as the real return increases. Albeit a, stronger GDP growth could further improve these yields.

Inflation Trends and Dynamics

Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) using the 2024 base year, showed the notable progress around inflation dynamics with the seventh consecutive month of observed decline in headline inflation. Headline inflation moderated further in October 2025, declining to 16.05% from 18.02% recorded in September 2025.

Other key underlying components of headline inflation have shown clear disinflation momentum: for example, food inflation fell sharply to 13.12% from 16.87%, reflecting easing supply pressures and improving domestic production conditions. Core inflation declined to 18.69% from 19.53%, demonstrating that monetary tightening is softening demand-side pressures. Consequently, these movements signal that the restrictive policy stance is already curbing underlying inflation, and further tightening may risk over-correcting and harming the recovery.

Both core and food inflation decreased in October 2025 to 18.69% and 13.12% from 19.53 and 16.87%, respectively. The observed continued decline in headline inflation is attributable to significant decrease in energy prices and deceleration in the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages sector, which accounts for 8.89% year-on-year contribution. The share of imported food in the inflation basket also declined to 9.63% from 12.93% in September on account of stability in the FX market.

Real output growth accelerated to 4.23% in Q2 2025, up from 3.13% in Q1. This suggest that output conditions are improving and need to be supported by our actions at this meeting. The forecast shows possible improvements for the third and fourth quarter of 2025. This improvement shows strengthening economic fundamentals, particularly in non-oil sectors.

The data from the foreign exchange market shows that exchange rate pressures are moderating. The exchange rate has largely stabilized, reflecting improved foreign exchange market liquidity and reduced speculative activity. Developments in the foreign exchange market have also been supported by the increase in gross external reserves to US$46.70 billion as of 14th November 2025 from US$42.77 billion at end-September 2025. This will support the current account as it can support over 10 months of import for goods and services.

This current trajectory of headline is consistent with the prevailing tight monetary policy stance, thereby reinforcing the policy transmission mechanism and providing a complementary response to other fiscal measures.

Month-on-month, headline inflation rose to 0.93% in October 2025 from 0.72% in September 2025, driven largely by food prices which increased to -0.37% from -1.57% over the same period. Similarly, core inflation inched up to 1.33% in October from 1.32% in September, indicating persistent underlying price pressures in the non-food segment.

Findings from the Staff Household Expectation Survey (HES) in October 2025 indicate an improvement in consumer price expectations, with households anticipating a continued deceleration in inflation over the next three to six months. In tandem with the HES, results from the Business Expectations Survey (BES) showed that all firms expressed optimism regarding the macroeconomy. Current policies will continue to support these positive business sentiments across key sectors. The October 2025 Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed business activities remained in expansion as PMI stood at 55.4 index points compared with 54.0 index points in September.

Given the recent improvements in key macroeconomic indicators and the need to reinforce these gains, policy credibility will remain a central priority. Achieving this will require addressing the residual gaps in policy transmission and coordination. Accordingly, enhanced and sustained alignment across monetary, fiscal, and structural policy frameworks will be essential to consolidate macroeconomic stability and anchor a durable disinflation trajectory

Outlook

Real GDP growth is expected to remain positive and broad-based through the remainder of 2025, underpinned by sustained expansion in the services sector, the impact of ongoing fiscal reforms, expected recovery in oil production and continuing structural shifts in the composition of aggregate output.

The inflation outlook indicates a possible spike at the end of the year due to December 2024 base effect. It is expected to moderate thereafter. However, the outlook for the month-on-month headline inflation suggests further moderation in headline as the effect of the previous MPC decisions continue to permeate through the system with significant outcomes. Additionally, stability has been sustained in the FX market, and the rebased GDP data showed a positive growth for the second consecutive quarter at 4.32 per cent in Q2 2025.

The fiscal outlook remains broadly stable, underpinned by moderate revenue expansion during the review period. Nonetheless, measures aimed at strengthening revenue mobilization, rebuilding fiscal buffers, and entrenching a more resilient medium-term fiscal framework for the remainder of 2025 and beyond require sustained consolidation.

The near-term outlook for the naira is broadly stable, despite heightened global risks and its potential impact on key foreign exchange inflow channels. The outlook is supported by favourable crude oil price dynamics and sustained stability in the foreign exchange market.

Supported by adherence to regulatory best practices and a strengthened risk management architecture, the Nigerian banking sector remains resilient. Asset quality indicators continue to stabilize, and broader prudential metrics remain within regulatory tolerance bands, underscoring the system's overall robustness.

Expected inflationary dynamics driven by increased seasonal or transitory demand shocks associated with festive-season consumption, persistent supply-side cost pass-through, and statistical base-effect distortions arising from the recent CPI rebasing could mechanically elevate the measured year-on-year inflation rate, thereby contributing to a likely uptick in Nigeria's headline inflation for December 2025 relative to underlying trend inflation.

Given that inflation indicators are improving, and the exchange rate is relatively stable, the marginal benefits of additional tightening are limited compared with the potential economic costs. Based on the trends in inflation, output, and exchange rate stability, the current monetary policy stance remains appropriate, and no further action should be taken at this time. Keeping the MPR and other parameters at their current levels will sustain disinflation trends, encourage growth and preserve financial market stability.

9. MURTALA SABO SAGAGI

Context

Nigeria's economic performance is slowly but gradually improving, especially as it relates meeting inflation and growth projections. Current indicators reveal a marked moderation in inflationary pressures, attributable to the lagged effects of previously implemented aggressive monetary policy measures and substantial decline in food prices. These outcomes underscore the effectiveness of earlier policy interventions in stabilizing key macroeconomic variables which are key to laying a solid foundation for sustainable economic development. However, it is imperative to evaluate the forward-looking implications within the context of the approaching yuletide season and the 2026 pre-election year— periods historically associated with substantial liquidity expansion. This assessment must carefully balance the imperative for price stability and the urgent need to fast track inclusive growth, which is fundamental to elevating living standards and reducing the nation's persistent security challenges. Given that the full transmission effects of prior monetary tightening measures are yet to materialize, a calibrated policy easing could suffice. Such a strategic adjustment would catalyse the requisite economic expansion while maintaining macroeconomic stability, and it is this rationale that informs my policy perspective at this critical moment.

Global and Domestic Economic Environment

Global Context

The ongoing wave of monetary policy easing across the global landscape presents significant opportunities for emerging market economies like Nigeria to attract much-needed capital inflows for developmental financing. As central banks, particularly in advanced economies, transition from restrictive to more accommodative monetary stances, global liquidity conditions are improving, creating favorable condition for portfolio and foreign direct investment flows into developing nations. To fully capitalize on these evolving dynamics, Nigeria's domestic policy framework must be strategically aligned to enhance the country's attractiveness as an investment destination, thereby channeling these potential inflows toward critical infrastructure development and productive sectors of the economy.

Nevertheless, there is a need for careful attention to the shifting geopolitical and economic landscape, particularly the evolving balance of power in international trade relations between the United States and its major trading partners, alongside the rising tide of protectionist sentiment gaining traction across various jurisdictions. These developments carry significant implications for global trade flows, supply chain configurations, and cross-border investment patterns. Notwithstanding these complexities, the earlier monetary tightening measures across economies are expected to sustain disinflation while supporting moderate output recovery—a pattern consistent with Nigeria's recent macroeconomic performance. This convergence of global monetary easing and gradual economic stabilization provides a conducive environment for emerging markets to pursue growth-oriented policies while maintaining prudent macroeconomic management.

Domestic Environment

On the domestic front, Nigeria's economy continues to exhibit encouraging macroeconomic trends, with inflation demonstrating sustained moderation while economic growth maintains positive momentum. Headline inflation has declined for the seventh consecutive month, reaching 16.02 percent by the end of October 2025, from higher levels in preceding months. This disinflation has been broad-based, with food inflation moderating to 13.12 percent and core inflation declining to 18.69 percent over the same period. These favorable developments are primarily attributable to improved food supply conditions, relative exchange rate stability, and increased availability of essential household items. Notably, the disinflationary trajectory was achieved without compromising economic expansion, as real GDP growth accelerated to 4.23 percent in Q2 2025 from 3.13 percent in Q1 2025, reflecting strengthening economic momentum across key sectors.

Further reinforcing the positive economic outlook, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased significantly to 56.4 points in November 2025—the highest reading in five years and well above the 50-point threshold that delineates expansion from contraction. This robust PMI performance signals growing business confidence, expanding production capacity, and improved demand conditions across the private sector, collectively underscoring the economy's progressive trajectory and the effectiveness of recent policy interventions in fostering a conducive environment for sustainable economic growth.

Additional positive macroeconomic developments include a substantial strengthening of Nigeria's external reserve position, which rose from US$42.77 billion at the end of September 2025 to US$46.70 billion by November 14, 2025. These developments have significantly bolstered both domestic and international investor confidence in the Nigerian economy, as evidenced by improvements in capital inflows. Gross capital importation increased from US$5.089 billion in Q4 2024 to US$5.642 billion in Q1 2025, reflecting enhanced investor sentiment and perceptions of reduced country risk. Furthermore, Nigeria's removal from international watch lists and the growing recognition of its improved macroeconomic fundamentals underscore the credibility gains achieved through consistent policy implementation. Collectively, these indicators demonstrate that structural reforms and improved economic management are yielding measurable dividends in terms of external sector resilience, market confidence, and the economy's integration into global financial markets. However, more needs to be done in restoring public and private sectors trust in governance. Equally, fiscal dominance and excessive spending on non-critical projects must be addressed.

Major Economic Considerations

Considering the foregoing, the indicators collectively suggest that the financial ecosystem can absorb a less restrictive stance without compromising price or exchange rate stability, thereby facilitating a strategic shift toward growth-oriented policies. Specific diagnosis of the developments in the economy is as follows:

1. Domestic Macroeconomic Stability

The domestic environment presents evidence of stability and resilience, weakening the rationale for continued aggressive tightening:

• Sustained Disinflationary Trajectory: Headline inflation has shown sustained moderation, declining for the seventh consecutive month to 16.02 percent. This trend indicates that earlier restrictive measures are yielding results and that current price pressures are manageable, providing scope for policy adjustment.
• Accelerated Economic Growth Momentum: Real GDP growth accelerated significantly by 4.23 percent in Q2 2025 from 3.13 percent in Q1 2025. This strengthening economic momentum suggests the economy is robust and capable of absorbing a modest stimulus to sustain or further boost output expansion without immediately triggering a significant inflationary spiral.
• Robust Business Confidence: The PMI signals growing business confidence and expanding production capacity, indicating that a mild loosening would align with and reinforce the positive private sector trajectory.

2. Enhanced External Sector Resilience

Strengthened external buffers and market stability will mitigate the risks (such as capital flight and currency depreciation) traditionally associated with monetary easing in emerging markets:

3. Strategic Global Alignment

The global economic environment provides a strategic opportunity for policy alignment. The continuation of the wave of global disinflation supports a moderate worldwide output recovery, creating a conducive environment for emerging markets to pursue growth-oriented policies while maintaining prudent macroeconomic management.

4. Limited Near-Term Headwinds: While medium-term challenges persist, the immediate headwinds facing the economy at this meeting are not too significant. Global conditions remain supportive, domestic supply-side factors continue to improve, the harvest season should sustain food price moderation, and exchange rate stability appears well-anchored. This confluence of favorable factors creates an appropriate window for policy recalibration.

5. Real Interest Rate Considerations: Even with headline inflation at 16.05 per cent, the current MPR of 27.00 per cent implies a real interest rate exceeding 10.5 percentage points. This represents an extraordinarily restrictive stance that, while appropriate during the acute phase of inflation, may now be unnecessarily constraining economic activity without delivering additional disinflationary benefits, given the lagged nature of monetary transmission.

My Vote

• Monetary Policy Rate (MPR): Reduction by 50 basis points to 26.50 per cent I therefore vote for a 50 basis point reduction in the MPR to spur growth.
• Standing Facilities Corridor: Adjustment to +50/-450 basis points (Asymmetric structure) This decision is appropriate at this time as an asymmetric corridor in this manner can help to tighten liquidity conditions significantly on the deposit side, support exchange rate stability, and disciplined liquidity management.
• Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR): Maintained at 45.0 per cent for Deposit Money Banks, 16.0 per cent for Merchant Banks, and 75.0 per cent for non-TSA public sector deposits.
• Liquidity Ratio: Maintained at 30.00 per cent

Recommendations

While monetary policy has responded appropriately to evolving macroeconomic conditions, the pathway to sustainable inclusive growth requires renewed fiscal discipline and growth-enhancing policy implementation to prevent the reversal of the achieved gains. Hence, there is a need to pay closer attention to the following:

I. Renewed Effort on Food Security

Nigeria cannot achieve sustainable development while relying primarily on subsistence agriculture and food imports. This requires substantial public investment, private sector partnership, and policy consistency over multiple years to transform agricultural productivity and value chains.

III. Enhanced Fiscal Discipline

With public debt reaching #152.39 trillion (Q2 2025) and squeezing fiscal space, improved public financial management, strategic prioritization of expenditures, and revenue mobilization are essential. The gains from improved sovereign credit ratings and FATF delisting must be consolidated through consistent fiscal prudence and transparent resource management.

V. Strengthen Policy Coordination

Without effective federal-state collaboration and policy consistency across governmental levels, even an optimal monetary policy will deliver suboptimal outcomes. Enhanced coordination mechanisms and accountability frameworks are needed to ensure policy alignment and implementation effectiveness.

11. PHILIP IKEAZOR

All key indicators of macroeconomic stability remain aligned with the trajectory of monetary policy, highlighting the effectiveness of the Bank's restrictive stance in curbing price pressures and anchoring inflation expectations.

Despite ongoing efforts, fiscal challenges remain, as several key benchmarks set by the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN), from crude oil output to inflation, have not met expectations. The revenue outlook points to a narrowing fiscal space which underscores the importance of maintaining a prudent monetary stance, while strengthening policy coordination to consolidate disinflation and safeguard macroeconomic stability. Against this backdrop, I was mindful of a balanced growth path that aligns with long-term objectives of monetary policy.

I therefore voted to:

(1) Retain the MPR at 27.0 per cent. (2) Adjust the Standing Facility corridor around the MPR to +50/-450 basis points. (3) Retain the CRR for Commercial Banks at 45.0 per cent. (4) Retain the CRR of Merchant Banks to 16.0 per cent. (5) Retain the CRR for non-TSA public sector at 75.0 per cent. (6) Retain the Liquidity Ratio at 30.0 per cent.

Developments in the Global and Domestic Economy

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that global growth in Q4 2025 will remain modest, broadly in line with Q3 performance. This reflects the gradual adjustment of the world economy to a changing macroeconomic environment, shaped by policy reforms and the easing of elevated tariffs. Temporary factors that boosted activity earlier in the year, such as front-loaded demand, are fading, though growth projections for the final quarter have been revised upward relative to Q1-2025.

The global growth is expected to moderate to 3.1 per cent in 2026, slightly below the 2025 forecast. Emerging markets and developing economies are projected to expand by 4.0 per cent, offsetting weaker growth of 1.5 per cent in advanced economies. Global inflation is expected to continue its downward trajectory but remain above target, with risks tilted upward. Downside risks dominate the outlook, including prolonged uncertainty, rising protectionism, labor supply shocks, fiscal vulnerabilities, potential financial market corrections, and institutional erosion.

In this context, central banks must sustain credible, transparent, and sustainable monetary policies to restore confidence. Strengthened coordination with fiscal authorities will be essential to rebuild buffers, support trade diplomacy, and safeguard central bank independence for effective policy signaling.

Domestically, the economy has demonstrated resilience, with the impact of international commodity price swings and exchange rate-driven inflationary pressures beginning to ease. However, global uncertainty continues to weigh on export performance, while supply chain disruptions have intensified imported inflation and strained fiscal space.

Looking ahead, the sustained global growth, moderating inflation, progress in tariff negotiations, improved financial conditions, and expanded fiscal spending are expected to deliver positive spillover effects for Nigeria. A sustained decline in global inflation would help reduce imported price pressures, particularly in food and manufactured goods, thereby supporting domestic price stability.

My Considerations

Nigeria's economy has remained broadly stable, supported by consistent monetary and fiscal reforms. Forecasts from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicate continued growth as inflationary and foreign exchange pressures ease. Real GDP is projected to expand modestly in Q3 2025, rising by 0.40 percentage point relative to Q2. This outlook is contingent on stronger crude oil production, enhanced refining capacity, favorable oil market conditions, and sustained agricultural output underpinned by reforms and improved security.

As the year draws to a close, macroeconomic indicators point to notable progress. Declining inflation, a stable exchange rate, and consistent oversight of the foreign exchange market reflect the effectiveness of monetary policy. Inflation expectations have been anchored, market volatility reduced, and the economy placed on a sustainable growth trajectory. Monthly core inflation stabilized at 1.42 per cent between September and October 2025, signaling the onset of a disinflationary phase.

Nonetheless, inflation dynamics remain mixed across rural and urban areas. In rural regions, food and farm produce prices rose by 0.24 percentage point, while core inflation, imported inflation, and energy costs declined in line with policy objectives. Conversely, urban inflation has intensified, with most key metrics, except passthrough, rising by at least 0.29 percentage point. This divergence underscores the need for coordinated monetary and fiscal measures to consolidate disinflation and drive inflation toward single digits.

Urban inflation presents a downside risk to growth, warranting a cautious but proactive stance. I weighed the balance between holding rates and adopting a more aggressive tightening. A moderate approach was chosen, allowing price levels to adjust fully and avoiding reactive response to temporary fluctuations. This stance also provides space for the new contractionary tax policy to crystallize its impact.

CBN forecasts indicate inflation will continue its downward trajectory, reaching 15.02 per cent (year-on-year) by December. However, the adoption of December 2024 as the CPI base year introduces potential distortions from seasonal effects and base effects. To mitigate unintended signaling, it was necessary to maintain rates and leverage the policy corridor to manage liquidity pressures associated with festive spending. Evidence from prior experiments supports the adoption of an asymmetric corridor between lending and deposit facilities, which is more effective in managing liquidity than a symmetric corridor.

The foreign exchange market exhibited resilience, with NFEM and Bureau de Change rates appreciating month-on-month by 2.11 and 1.36 per cent, respectively. Improved market coordination, strengthened confidence, and enhanced liquidity conditions underpinned this stability. However, the negative premium of #4.00 per USD between NFEM and BDC rates highlights demand pressures and distortions in signaling, necessitating a cautious monetary stance. To safeguard macroeconomic stability and prevent transmission of these pressures into consumer prices, I opted to hold the policy rates.

Fiscal performance fell short of government targets, with crude oil production and inflation outcomes below expectations. Public spending rose by 28.26 per cent year-on-year, while the public debt-to-GDP ratio climbed to 38.17 per cent, nearing the Debt Management Office (DMO) threshold of 40 per cent. Although still within the fiscal framework, narrowing fiscal space pose risks to macroeconomic stability. These developments must be factored into monetary policy, particularly given autonomous spending pressures linked to security challenges.

In conclusion, the consolidation of monetary and fiscal policies has yielded tangible benefits, notably in maintaining price stability and output growth. However, output growth remains below the level required to firmly anchor the economy's fundamentals. I re-emphasized the need for fiscal authorities to be vigilant and to continue addressing structural impediments which are beyond the scope of monetary policy, prioritizing the mitigation of risks associated with oil market disruptions, security challenges, elevated infrastructure and energy costs, while accounting for global geopolitical uncertainties to foster inclusive and resilient growth.

12. OLAYEMI CARDOSO

Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria and Chairman, Monetary Policy Committee

The November meeting, our final for 2025, marks the close of an eventful year. In pursuing our price stability mandate, faced with significant headwinds and financial system shocks, we successfully navigated these challenges and steered the economy towards relative stability. Inflation is now firmly trending downwards on the back of a tight policy stance; the exchange rate is significantly less volatile and has shown a degree of market driven appreciation; our foreign reserves position continues to strengthen on the back of market reforms that have resulted in structural shifts in the balance of payments and improved capital flows; and, confidence remains high across the board, spurring long term investment in critical sectors of the economy.

I must commend the MPC members for staying the course to get us to this point. Our reform story over the past two years is one that we need to collectively communicate more effectively to reinforce confidence, macroeconomic stability, and to signal that we have what it takes to manage any headwinds in the horizon. Our gatherings have provided the opportunity to review and analyse information and estimates from staff, ask questions, and educate ourselves on the complex and dynamic variables that impact the trajectory of the economy. Maintaining the credibility of the MPC (and to an extent the Central Bank remains central to the delivery of our mandate, hence it is important for our decisions to be seen to be evidence-based and correct over the medium to long run.

We must bear in mind that there is a fair amount of time before our next meeting and, given the sheer number of risks and uncertainties that clouds our outlook, focus of members must be on developments we see on the horizon over the next few months. We must endeavour to determine what needs to be done to avoid surprises and lean on all the resources available to us collectively to articulate how best to execute our decisions in a collaborative manner to deliver the best possible outcomes.

On the global stage, an increasing number of bilateral trade deals have brought relief from tariff wars rhetoric and resulted in the upward review in output forecasts for both advanced and emerging economies, with growth expected to remain strong going into 2026. Moderating supply chain disruptions and easing geopolitical tensions has led to a lower inflation outlook, with prices in advanced economies generally expected to soften, except for the United States where heightened protectionism and policy uncertainty could sustain inflationary pressures. Commodity prices are forecast to remain soft, with a bearish oil market expected to persist due to subdued demand coming out of large consumption markets in Asia, and increased supply. Across emerging and developing economies (EMDEs), inflation is projected to trend lower, reflecting an improved policy environment but vulnerabilities to exchange rate and commodity price volatility persist.

On the domestic front, the economy remains firmly on the path of recovery. Real GDP growth sustained its momentum with continued improvements in the oil and non-oil sector, and 4.23% outturn in Q2 2025 is expected to remain strong with a full year forecast of 4.27%. Inflation declined to 16.05% in October, down from 18.02% in the preceding month and 8.43 percentage points below the 24.48% recorded in January 2025. The sustained deceleration is evident across all measures - headline, food, and core, with momentum accelerating in recent months. Contributory factors include the pass-through of low volatility in the foreign exchange market, continued decline in food prices, and well anchored expectations given the relative strength of the exchange rate. Research estimates indicate that our tight policy stance has accounted for up to 10 percentage points of the decline in headline inflation, providing encouraging counterfactual evidence on the effectiveness of monetary policy in the current environment and a reminder of the need to consistently take bold actions.

Business and household sentiments reflect an increasingly optimistic outlook of the macroeconomy and coupled with increased investor confidence, this should continue to foster the stability of the economy. Stability notwithstanding, the data before us firmly indicates the persistence of heightened risks to the near term economic outlook. For example, Nigeria's recent designation as a 'Country of Particular Concern' by the US administration, though grounded in security considerations, could carry economic spillovers that warrant close monitoring.

The local political cycle also makes 2026 pivotal in the economic landscape, with empirical studies showing undeniable links between pre-election fiscal expansion and inflationary pressures, exchange rate depreciation, and external sector vulnerabilities.

Challenges also persist on the fiscal side of the economy and despite the ongoing best and well intended efforts to reform, it is well acknowledged that these often take time to materialise, more so given the extent of changes that needed to be implemented. New challenges also creep in along the way, with upcoming elections now playing a critical role in our outlook.

It is therefore important that monetary policy must remain alert and exceptionally proactive in managing the resultant fragility that these risks pose to the financial system, and constantly evaluate what is required for policy implementation to remain effective. Our triggers and early warning signals will be fine tuned and continuously recalibrated to enhance our capability to take adequate policy actions on issues that might threaten our stable course. Our ability to respond early is a key determinant of the outcomes we will deliver and the extent to which these are sustainable over time. It must however be noted that the extent to which monetary policy alone can deliver sustainable economic gains is limited, and our focus must also be on how we can support the improvement of the fundamentals of the economy across board.

The extensive deliberations at this meeting present an overwhelming case for maintaining a tight monetary stance. I am, therefore, firmly convinced that holding policy rates at current levels best supports our disinflationary progress. In addition to the uncertainties to the outlook earlier mentioned, excess liquidity in the system remains a major risk to sustaining price stability, and we need to ensure policy remains tight and well implemented to forestall any reversal in the disinflationary trend that has now been established.

In my view, holding is a clear signal of reinforcing stability and acknowledgement that the current policy stance is having the desired effect. The effective anchoring of overnight market rates within the standing facilities corridor further demonstrates the improved transmission of our policy stance to the wholesale market. This is a welcome development and gives us some room to further adjust the corridor to reflect emergent liquidity conditions and the sustained price action witnessed in the benchmark government securities market. The proposed asymmetric adjustment of the corridor – widening the floor while keeping the ceiling tight – aims to absorb persistent excess liquidity without compromising control over short-term rates.

Accordingly, I support the following policy actions:

1. Maintain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 27.00 per cent.
2. Adjust the Standing Facilities corridor around the MPR to +50/-450 basis points.
3. Maintain the CRR for commercial banks at 45 per cent and that of merchant banks at 16 per cent, and retain a 75 per cent CRR on non-TSA public sector deposits.
4. Keep the Liquidity Ratio unchanged at 30.00 per cent.

Olayemi Cardoso Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria November 2025