2025-09-01
The Central Bank of Somalia issued this policy brief to analyze the nation’s ongoing fiscal modernization, highlighting a persistent 3.0 percent revenue-to-GDP ratio and an annual $116 million fiscal gap between domestic collections and operational expenditures. It outlines three strategic imperatives: enforcing the new Income Tax Law and expanding the tax net to informal sectors, scaling digital administration tools like ETAS and SOMCAS to automate compliance, and harmonizing federal-fiscal governance to establish a unified revenue authority. Implementing these measures through the 2025–2027 Medium-Term Revenue Roadmap will enable the government to fully finance its operating expenses from domestic resources and reach a targeted 4 percent revenue-to-GDP ratio by 2027.
Policy Briefs June 2025 008/2025 Evolution of Somalia’s Fiscal Sector: A Journey Towards Modernization and Optimization of Revenue Collection and Tax Administration
June 2025 CBS Policy Briefs info@centralbank.gov.so www.centralbank.gov.so @CBSsomalia Central Bank of Somalia ©2025 In the case of quotation, please refer to this Publication as follow: - Central Bank of Somalia (CBS) Policy Briefs: June 2025 Mogadishu – Somalia To request a complimentary copy of this report, an electronic copy is available at www.centralbank.gov.so 55 Corso Somalia P. O. Box 11 Mogadishu, Somalia
Evolution of Somalia’s Fiscal Sector: A Journey Towards Modernization and Optimization of Revenue Collection and Tax Administration Policy Research & Analysis Division Research and Statistics Department Monetary, Financial, Regulatory Policy Group Central Bank of Somalia June 2025
Policy Brief, June 2025 2 Executive Summary Somalia’s fiscal sector is undergoing a significant transition, marked by reforms in tax policy, digitization of business processes, and public financial management. These significant strides in reforming the fiscal system have strengthened domestic revenue performance aimed to reduce over-reliance on external grants. After reaching the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC) Completion Point in December 2023, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) accelerated tax mobilization initiatives through customs modernization, broader sales tax, and better tax administration. Most of the reform was driven by enhanced collection of income tax and sales tax. In September 2024, the FGS widened the sales tax base by working with firms in the telecommunications sector to introduce a digital mechanism to collect a 5 percent sales tax from businesses using merchant accounts. The main benefits of this reform were seen in the fourth quarter of 2024, assisted by digital tools like the Electronic Tax Administration System (ETAS) and Invoice Tracking System (ITS). These efforts led to domestic revenue growth, from US$262.8 million in 2022 to US$369.4 million in 2024. Yet, Somalia’s revenue-to-GDP ratio remains low at 3.0 percent, well below the East African Community’s 25 percent target. Although Somalia’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) developed a Medium-Term Revenue Roadmap (MTRR) in 2024, which sets out the FGS’s revenue mobilization strategy for 2025–27. The core target is for the FGS to be able to cover all operating expenses from domestic revenues by 2027. Although tax collection has improved, it has not kept up with the FGS spending needs. In 2024, FGS collected US$369.4 million but spent over US$485 million on operating costs (excluding donor funded projects), resulting in a fiscal gap of over US$116 million. Most of this spending goes to operational costs including salaries and other non-income generating expenditures, leaving little for capital expenditure. Encouragingly, digital sales tax collection and outsourced rental income management have boosted revenues in Mogadishu, showing what is possible when reforms are well implemented. To move forward, Somalia needs to broaden the tax base and enhance taxpayer compliance by adopting the Medium-Term Revenue Roadmap-2024-2027 strategy, bringing informal sectors into the system, fully digitizing tax processes, deescalating political tensions, and improving coordination between the FGS and FMS fiscal reforms. Equally important is aligning spending with actual revenue, increasing transparency, and building public trust in the system. With sustained commitment and targeted reforms, Somalia can create a fair, more effective, and self-reliant fiscal policy. The paper outlines three strategic policy recommendations:
3 Evolution of Somalia’s Fiscal Sector: A Journey Towards Modernization and Optimization of Revenue Collection and Tax Administration
Policy Brief, June 2025 4 1.1 Somalia’s Revenue Mobilization Gap: Regional Lag and Structural Challenges Somalia remains significantly behind its East African Community (EAC) counterparts in domestic revenue mobilization. While EAC countries such as Rwanda, Burundi, and Kenya consistently collect between 15% and 22% of GDP in government revenue, Somalia’s revenue-to-GDP ratio has remained extremely low—rising only from 2.3% in 2018 to 3.0% in 2024. This substantial gap highlights the urgent need for Somalia to strengthen its revenue generation and optimization strategies. By prioritizing reforms in tax policy, enforcement, and digital systems, Somalia can work toward closing this gap and fostering sustainable economic growth and fiscal resilience. Table 1: Government Revenue, Percentage of GDP in EAC (2018-2024) Year Burundi Uganda Rwanda Tanzania Kenya Somalia 2018 19.4 13.2 23.8 15.3 17.5 2.3 2019 22.4 13.5 23.1 15.2 17.0 2.7 2020 23.1 13.7 23.9 14.9 16.7 2.4 2021 25.1 14.0 24.6 14.9 16.8 2.4 2022 23.0 14.2 23.9 15.2 17.1 2.6 2023 20.7 14.3 22.3 15.5 16.9 3.0 2024 20.7 14.2 22.4 14.9 16.8 3.0 Source: IMF Portal, 2025 The above table shows that FGS’s recorded a revenue-to-GDP ratio (excluding grants) of just 3 percent in 2024 significantly lower than regional peers such as Rwanda (22.4), Kenya (16.8%) and Uganda (14.2%). This relatively low ratio reflects Somalia’s continued dependence on external grants and highlights the urgent need to expand the domestic tax base. A narrow revenue base constrains the government’s capacity to fund development priorities, sustain essential public services, and manage fiscal risks effectively. On the expenditure side, reforms targeted payroll efficiency through the Civil Servant Law and the Public Service Pension and Gratuity Act (2024). Despite these initiatives, expenditure remains skewed toward recurrent costs, with limited allocations for capital investment. Intergovernmental fiscal coordination also remains a challenge. While most of the Federal Member States (FMS) have aligned with national tax frameworks, some are yet to integrate fully, complicating harmonization and equitable revenue sharing. 2. Key Domestic Revenue Mobilization Reforms Improving domestic revenue mobilization remains a core fiscal priority for the FGS. In 2024, total domestic revenue reached over US$369 million, representing a 12 percent increase from US$329 million in 2023. Despite this growth, the revenue-to-GDP ratio remained unchanged at 3.0 percent, underscoring the need for deeper tax base expansion and efficiency gains. Significant improvements in the mobilization of domestic revenue have been made by the federal government. The FGS has implemented new tax measures, including a turnover tax that was previously absent, as well as the extension of sales tax to the service sector. Additionally, there are plans to modernize the income tax law to better align with the country’s current economic realities. These new taxes and improved tax administration are expected to raise domestic revenue in 2025 to US$430.3 million, equivalent to 3.18 percent of GDP.
5 There are also increased automation efforts in tax collection. The Somali Customs Automated System (SOMCAS) is operationalized in Mogadishu and Kismayo ports and Airports, thus facilitating the implementation of tariffs. The custom taxes collected in 2024 were US$168.88 million against a target of US$164.52 million2 , implying that the automation had increased efficiency. The FGS is formulating a comprehensive revenue strategy, supported by the IMF, to guide revenue collection over the next three years with a target of getting the revenue to GDP ratio to over 4 percent by 2027. This includes implementing a new Income Tax Law to replace the outdated 1966 income tax legislation. The revenue growth was largely due to improved income and sales tax collection. In early 2024, the FGS outsourced the collection of rental income tax on public properties in Mogadishu to a private contractor. The contractor introduced an electronic database of rental properties and stepped-up enforcement that saw rental income rise tremendously by Q3 2024 (Figure 5). The corporate and personal 2 3 income tax compliance improved, as more firms were registered and complied with income tax requirements. In Q3 2024, the government collaborated with telecommunications companies to introduce a digital system that automated sales tax collection via merchant accounts, significantly boosting sales tax receipts in Q4. Additionally, utility providers, including electricity and water companies, were integrated into the digital sales tax system, broadening the tax base further. Despite these gains, revenue estimates remained insufficient to finance operations fully. While over US$369 million collected in 2024 was enough to cover FGS salary obligations (Figure 1), it fell short of covering operational expenditure, which stood at US$485 million. The resulting fiscal gap of US$116 million3 highlights the persistent mismatch between domestic revenue performance and expenditure needs, reinforcing the urgency of continued reform and improved budget discipline. Source: MoF, 2025 2 FGS, 2024 End-Year Budget Performance Report, 16 March 2025. https://mof.gov.so/sites/default/files/ Publications/2024%20END%20YEAR%20BUDGET%20PERFORMANCE%20REPORT_0.pdf 3 Federal Government of Somalia. Somalia Financial Governance Report 2024: Strengthening Petroleum Revenue Sharing for State Building and Economic Development. Mogadishu: Ministry of Finance, April 2025. https://mof. gov.so/sites/default/files/Publications/Somalia%20Financial%20Governance%20Report%20%20 2024%20.pdf Figure 1: FGS Domestic Revenues, Salaries, and Total Operational Costs,2020–2024 Evolution of Somalia’s Fiscal Sector: A Journey Towards Modernization and Optimization of Revenue Collection and Tax Administration
Policy Brief, June 2025 6 3. Recent Developments in FGS Domestic Revenue Trends (2018–2024) Somalia’s domestic revenue mobilization exhibited notable and consistent growth in domestic revenue mobilization over the past seven years, cumulative domestic revenue has surpassed US$1.8 billion, consistently exceeding targets. This progress reflects the impact of ongoing fiscal policy reforms focused on expanding the tax base, improving taxpayer compliance, and strengthening public financial management systems. Source: MoF, 2025 Figure 2 presents annual domestic revenue collected by the FGS during this period. In 2018, actual domestic revenue stood at approximately US$183.4 million, surpassing the initial budget estimate of US$156 million. The upward momentum continued into 2019, with revenue reaching around US$230.3 million. In 2020, collections declined to US$211.2 million, primarily due to the adverse economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite this temporary setback, the recovery was swift: domestic revenue rebounded in 2021 and has continued on a rising trend through 2024. By 2024, total revenue collections reached an all-time high of US$369.4 million, exceeding the budget estimate by over US$23 million. Notably, both 2023 and 2024 saw actual revenues outperform projections, signaling improved forecasting, enforcement, and revenue mobilization efforts. Overall, the strong performance in recent years demonstrates Somalia’s growing fiscal capacity and lays a solid foundation for achieving the mediumterm goals outlined in the National Tax Plan and broader public finance reform agenda. 4. FGS Rental Income and Sales Tax Trends Table 3 presents the Federal Government of Somalia’s (FGS) quarterly rental income and sales tax performance from 2022Q1 to 2024Q4. The data highlights a steady increase in rental income collection and a dramatic surge in sales tax revenue beginning in late 2023. Figure 2: Domestic Revenue Trends (2018–2024) with YTD Performance
7 Table 3: Quarterly Rental Income and Sales Tax Trends (2022Q1-2024Q4) Year Quarter Rental Income Sales Tax Total 2022 Q1 $ 168,675 $ - $ 168,675 2022 Q2 $ 136,539 $ - $ 136,539 2022 Q3 $ 162,077 $ - $ 162,077 2022 Q4 $ 163,989 $ - $ 163,989 2023 Q1 $ 211,779 $ - $ 211,779 2023 Q2 $ 275,351 $ - $ 275,351 2023 Q3 $ 403,846 $ - $ 403,846 2023 Q4 $ 279,996 $ 214,738 $ 494,734 2024 Q1 $ 937,963 $ 160,435 $ 1,098,398 2024 Q2 $ 1,842,219 $ 219,075 $ 2,061,294 2024 Q3 $ 2,069,831 $ 93,883 $ 2,163,714 2024 Q4 $ 1,815,424 $3,851,666 $ 5,667,090 Source: MoF, 2025 The data illustrates a significant upward trajectory in both rental income and sales tax collections throughout 2024, with sales tax revenue peaking in Q4 at nearly US$4 million. Between 2022 and 2023, revenue was primarily driven by rental income, while sales tax remained uncollected until Q4 of 2023, highlighting its phased rollout. A notable turning point occurred in Q4 of 2024, coinciding with the formal launch of the 5 percent electronic transaction tax, targeting digital payments. This policy shift led to a dramatic increase in tax revenue, with total collections in 2024Q4 reaching over US$5.6 million. This growth was significantly enabled by the deployment of digital tax administration systems, namely the Rental Income Tax System (RITS) and the Electronic Tax Administration System (ETAS). While RITS facilitated streamlined rental income collections, ETAS played a transformative role by enabling the government to monitor real-time sales through merchant accounts and automatically deduct applicable taxes directly into government accounts. These two systems collectively enhanced compliance, transparency, and efficiency in revenue mobilization. This growth in tax revenue can be attributed to three key drivers:
Policy Brief, June 2025 8 This evolution in revenue performance marks a pivotal moment in Somalia’s public finance trajectory, laying the groundwork for greater fiscal self-reliance, improved domestic resource mobilization, and more sustainable public service delivery. 5. Key Notable Issues Somalia’s low domestic revenue is largely a consequence of several interrelated factors. First and foremost, institutional deficiencies play a critical role; many government institutions lack the capacity, resources, and transparency necessary to collect and manage revenue effectively. Additionally, the country struggles with a fragile governance system, which undermines public trust, leading to poor compliance with tax regulations. The presence of a significant informal sector further exacerbates the issue. Many businesses operate outside the formal economy, making it difficult for the government to tax them and capture potential revenue. This informal economy provides livelihoods for many, yet its lack of regulation hinders economic growth and the state’s ability to generate income. Finally, ongoing security concerns also contribute to Somalia’s revenue mobilization challenges. The instability caused by persistent conflict and the threat of violence undermines both domestic and foreign investment, weakens the government’s capacity to increase its fiscal base. Together, these factors create a complex environment that severely limits the effectiveness of domestic revenue generation efforts in Somalia A) Improving Tax Policy and Revenue Mobilization: Expanding the tax base, strengthening fiscal sustainability, and improving revenue design
9 and enforcement remain at an early stage, especially across informal and rural economies, limiting the revenue potential of these tax streams. Weak compliance systems also hamper the effectiveness of existing tax instruments. B) Establishing Solid and Cohesive Tax Administration: Institutional capacity, automation, taxpayer compliance, and operational efficiency: 6. Delays in Establishing the Somali Revenue Authority and Revenue Allocation Committee • Although the creation of the Somali Revenue Authority (SRA) and Revenue Allocation Committee was agreed in principle at the March 2023 National Consultative Council (NCC), both institutions remain non-operational. Progress has stalled due to the absence of clear legal, institutional, and governance frameworks. These entities are critical for enhancing federal revenue collection and ensuring transparent and predictable intergovernmental fiscal transfers. The absence of enabling legislation and weak institutional coordination undermines trust and slows progress on nationally integrated revenue systems. 7. Multiple Taxation and Jurisdictional Overlaps • Inconsistent tax policies and a limited Customs harmonization across Federal Member States (FMS) create significant challenges for businesses and taxpayers. The resulting duplication and jurisdictional confusion reduce tax compliance and increase administrative costs. C) Harmonization through Fiscal Federalism and Customs Reform: Federal-member state alignment, intergovernmental trust, and customs coordination. 8. Delayed SOMCAS Rollout • The SOMCAS has not been fully rolled out across all FMS. • The absence of a standardized valuation framework and inconsistent application of ad valorem tariffs undermines customs efficiency. • Several FMS have implemented turnover taxes targeting Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs), but poor coordination with the Federal Government tax system leads to duplication and disincentivizes business formalization. • The politicized resistance stems from concerns over FGS overreach and potential loss of revenue control by FMS. 6. Policy Recommendations A) Improving Tax Policy and Broadening the Revenue Base
Policy Brief, June 2025 10 B) Establishing a Solid and Digitally Enabled Tax Administration 3. Modernize and Digitize the Administration of Taxes • Implementing technology-driven tax administration systems across all sectors will reduce human errors and increase efficiency in tax administration. The FGS should scale up ETAS and Invoice Tracking System (ITS) across all economic sectors, including utilities, transport, wholesale/ retail, and telecoms. Ensure adoption of common digital tax tools by all FMS to harmonize systems and reduce evasion. 4. Improve Taxpayer Compliance and Public Trust • Increase taxpayer education programs, especially targeting SMEs and informal operators. • Launch comprehensive anti-corruption and audit reforms to ensure transparent use of tax revenues and reduce resistance to taxation. 5. Strengthen Legal and Institutional Frameworks • Establish an independent tax appeals tribunal to handle disputes, ensuring fairness of the tax system and due process. This will build the confidence of the taxpayers in the tax system and enhance overall compliance. C) Harmonization through Fiscal Federalism and Customs Reform 6. Strengthen and Improve Customs Administration • The new customs laws have attempted to standardize customs across all ports; however, this requires effective enforcement to ensure compliance. Ensure that all entry points, including those operated by Federal Member States (FMS), apply the same customs laws and tariffs. • The Federal Government should expand the use of SOMCAS and risk-based inspections. Full deployment of the Somali Customs Automated System (SOMCAS) across all ports and border entry posts is necessary to maximize revenue collection from customs. 7. Establish a Somali Revenue Authority (NRA), and the Independent Revenue Allocation Committee, Promptly • Accelerate efforts to establish and operationalize the Somali Revenue Authority, as endorsed by the National Consultative Council (NCC) in the Baidoa Agreement of March 2023. • Enact enabling legislation and Institutional Frameworks for the National Revenue Authority with clear roles, transparency, and intergovernmental oversight mechanisms. • Establish a transparent, legally binding framework to clarify revenue assignments and administration roles between FGS and FMS. 8. Strengthen IGFF Mandate, Coordination, and Accountability • Empower the Intergovernmental Fiscal Forum (IGFF) to lead the development and enforcement of a federal tax administration code, with defined dispute resolution mechanisms. • Institutionalize regular technical working groups and reporting frameworks to improve coordination and mutual accountability between FGS and FMS. • Enact a legally binding framework for fiscal federalism, with a clearly defined revenuesharing formula, and compliance incentives to foster cooperation and predictability in intergovernmental transfers.
11 References CEIC Data (2025). “Kenya Tax Revenue: % of GDP”, CEICDATA.com. https://www.ceicdata.com/ en/indicator/kenya/tax-revenue--of-gdp. Federal Government of Somalia (2024), “2025 Budget Policy Framework Paper.” Ministry of Finance. https://mof.gov.so/sites/default/files/Publications/FGS%20Budget%20Framework%20 Paper%20for%20FY%202025%20revisedv15.pdf Federal Government of Somalia. Somalia Financial Governance Report 2024: Strengthening Petroleum Revenue Sharing for State Building and Economic Development. Mogadishu: Ministry of Finance, April 2025. Accessed May 30, 2025. https://mof.gov.so/sites/default/files/Publications/ Somalia%20Financial%20Governance%20Report%20%202024%20.pdf FGS (2025). “2024 End-Year Budget Performance Report.” Ministry of Finance. https://mof.gov.so/ sites/default/files/Publications/2024%20END%20YEAR%20BUDGET%20PERFORMANCE%20 REPORT_0.pdf IMF (2023). “IMF and World Bank Announce US$4.5 billion in Debt Relief for Somalia.” International Monetary Fund. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2023/12/13/pr23438-imf-and-worldbank-announce-us-4-5-billion-in-debt-relief-for-somalia IMF (2024), “Statement by Mr. Mahmoud Mohieldin, Mr. Ali Alhosani, and Mr. Abdulqafar Abdullahi on Somalia.” International Monetary Fund. https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/ journals/002/2024/158/article-A004-en.xml Republic of Kenya (2024). “National Tax Policy. Nairobi: The National Treasury and Economic Planning, 2024.” The National Treasury. https://www.treasury.go.ke/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/7.05.- 2024-National-Tax-Policy.pdf. Trading Economics (2024). “Uganda - Tax Revenue (% of GDP) - 2023 Data.” Trading Economics. com. https://tradingeconomics.com/uganda/tax-revenue-percent-of-gdp-wb-data.html. Evolution of Somalia’s Fiscal Sector: A Journey Towards Modernization and Optimization of Revenue Collection and Tax Administration
CENTRAL BANK OF SOMALIA info@centralbank.gov.so www.centralbank.gov.so @CBSsomalia Central Bank of Somalia