2022-11-02
The Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM) issued a report analyzing execution quality on two Payment for Order Flow (PFOF) venues, one non-PFOF venue, and one investment firm. Using the Comparative Pricing Model, the AFM found that PFOF venues structurally provided worse execution prices for retail clients compared to reference markets, with significant price deterioration. The study confirms that PFOF creates conflicts of interest leading to inferior outcomes for investors and validates the AFM's post-trade data methodology as a robust tool for replication by other regulators.
Assessing the quality of executions on trading venues The “Comparative Pricing Model” March 2022 (version 2) AFM
2 Assessing the quality of executions on trading venues Contents Summary 3 1 Introduction 4 2 Methodology 5 3 Research outcomes 7 Annex I Specifications of the Comparative Pricing Model 17 Annex II Questions and answers 20 Annex III The Comparative Pricing Model and order-data analysis 23
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Summary Following the emerging worldwide public debate on the risks and presumed benefits of the practice of payment for order flow (PFOF) 1 , the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA) published a warning on the risks arising from PFOF. PFOF causes a conflict of interests between a firm and its clients as it incentivizes the firm to choose the third party offering the highest payment, rather than the best possible outcome for its clients when executing or routing their orders for execution. Therefore, ESMA called on National Competent Authorities (NCAs) to dive deeper into the issue. Subsequently, the Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets (AFM) looked into the execution quality of two PFOF trading venues and one non-PFOF trading venue (all three used by pan-European operating low-cost neobrokers) as well as one low-cost investment firm. The AFM selected these trading venues and low-cost investment firm based on criteria such as data availability and a substantial presence of activities in multiple European countries. The analyzed trading venues are used by neo-brokers with comparably low commissions. The results of our analysis show that the PFOF trading venues structurally offered worse execution prices compared to real transactions happening at a similar point in time on multiple other trading venues. The CNMV applied the same methodology to a different dataset and obtained similar results.2 In order to assess execution quality, the AFM developed a methodology which provides a robust indicator of a trading venue’s execution quality based on post-trade data: the Comparative Pricing Model. The methodology is easy to replicate by other NCAs using their own available datasets. Replication was a key concern for us, and – since not all NCAs have order-data readily available – one of the primary reasons why we chose a post-trade data-based methodology. The AFM applies the Comparative Pricing Model to analyze how execution prices on one trading venue compares to execution prices on other trading venues. In its analysis, the AFM considers the price of a transaction to be better when the client is selling at a higher price (or buying at a lower price) than the price of any transaction on any reference trading venue in the same instrument in the same second. Similarly, the AFM considers a trade to be worse priced when the client is selling at a price lower (or buying at a price higher) than the price of any transaction on any of the reference trading venues in the same instrument in the same second. If neither is the case, the execution price is considered of similar quality. The results show that for the two PFOF trading venues, most retail client transactions are executed at a worse price compared to the most liquid reference markets. For most of the transactions (68-72% for PFOF trading venue X and 81-83% for PFOF trading venue Y) the execution price was worse. On PFOF trading venue X the average price deterioration for a transaction of € 3,000 is € 1.44, and € 3.46 for PFOF trading venue Y. For the third trading venue (Z), a non-PFOF trading venue, most of the retail client transactions are executed at a similar price (74-77%) compared to the reference markets, with the average price deterioration for a trade of € 3,000 being € 0.24. For the investment firm we examined, the percentage worse, better or similar executions are almost evenly divided, with the average price deterioration for a transaction of € 3,000 being € 0.42. In response to version 1 of this paper, the AFM noticed that some parties would have liked us to compare transaction-data with order-data (instead of with transaction-data), some of these respondents claimed such a 1 Payment for order flow is the practice of a third party such as a regulated market, market maker or liquidity provider paying any monetary or non-monetary benefits to an investment firm for routing their clients’ orders to that third party for execution. 2 CNMV, ‘Payment for Order Flow: an analysis of the quality of execution of a zero-commission broker on Spanish stocks’, 15 February 2022. Link: https://www.cnmv.es/DocPortal/Publicaciones/OTROS/Analisis_PFOF.pdf.
4 Assessing the quality of executions on trading venues method might provide different results or a possibly better method to assess execution quality. Therefore, in the March 2022 update of this paper, the AFM added an analysis where we use pre-trade (or “order”) data to compare quality of execution. The results are very similar to the results obtained via the Comparative Pricing Model which uses post-trade data. That is to say: the PFOF venues structurally underperform compared to quoted3 prices as well as actual execution prices. This confirms our belief that the Comparative Pricing Model by itself functions as a robust indicator of a trading venue’s or investment firm’s execution quality. Additional analyses and refinements of the methodology would provide broader insights into order execution quality within the EU. 1 Introduction After the GameStop debacle, a public debate emerged on the practice of PFOF, which causes a conflict of interest between a firm and its clients as it incentivizes the firm to choose a third party offering the highest payment, rather than the best possible outcome for its clients, when executing or routing clients’ orders. In July 2021, ESMA warned investors for the risks arising from PFOF and called on NCAs to dive deeper into the issue. 4 The AFM has analyzed the execution quality on two PFOF trading venues, one non-PFOF trading venue and one low-cost investment firm. The trading venues and investment firms were chosen based on criteria such as data availability and a substantial presence of activities in multiple European countries. In the March 2022 update of this paper the AFM added annex III:
5 Assessing the quality of executions on trading venues
6 Assessing the quality of executions on trading venues Basically, the Comparative Pricing Model works as follows:
7 Assessing the quality of executions on trading venues 3 Research outcomes The AFM applied the methodology to the transactions in Dutch shares on three trading venues (two PFOF trading venues and one non-PFOF trading venue) and to one low-cost investment firm. These venues and investment firm were selected because their activities and services are provided to retail clients across multiple EU member states and they reported a relatively large number of transactions (hence data points). The analyses found that the majority of retail client transactions on the two PFOF trading venues were executed at prices worse than transactions on the reference trading venues. On the non-PFOF trading venue, most of the retail client transactions have similar execution prices when compared to the reference trading venues. For the investment firm, the transaction prices are almost equally divided among the labels worse, better and similar. In the remainder of this chapter, we present the results for the three trading venues and the low-cost investment firm in detail. PFOF trading venue X The outcomes below show that retail clients got a worse price in 68-72% of the cases and a better price in 5- 8% of the transactions when compared to prices in the reference market(s). That is: 68.8% was worse when we compare the executions to executions on ten other trading venues and 72.0% was worse if we compare the transactions solely with transactions on Euronext Amsterdam (which is the most liquid trading venue available in our dataset). We found that – on average, when compared to executions on Euronext Amsterdam – clients trading on trading venue X are paying 4.80 basis points extra per transaction. For a transaction of € 3,000 this means the price is worse by € 1.44. Trading venue X is a PFOF trading venue operating with a regulated market license. Trading venue X has one market maker acting as the counterparty for nearly all retail client orders in shares. PFOF trading venue X Execution prices vs other trading venues Worse Similar Better Execution price vs other venues 68.8% 23.5% 7.6% Based on > 140,000 transactions Execution price vs Euronext Amsterdam 72.0% 22.4% 5.7% Based on 124,904 transactions Price improvement or deterioration Average price deterioration vs Euronext Amsterdam 4.8 bps Based on 124,904 transactions Average price deterioration for a trade of € 1,000 € 0.48 Based on 124,904 transactions Average price deterioration for a trade of € 3,000 € 1.44 Based on 124,904 transactions
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9 Assessing the quality of executions on trading venues PFOF trading venue Y The outcomes below show that clients got a worse price in 81-83% of the cases and a better price in 6-7% of the transactions when compared to prices in the reference market(s). That is: 81.5% was worse when compared to transactions on ten other trading venues and 83.3% was worse when compared to transactions executed on Euronext Amsterdam. We found that – on average, when compared to executions on Euronext Amsterdam – clients trading on Trading venue Y are paying 11.5 basis points extra per transaction, or € 3.46 worse for a transaction of € 3,000. Trading venue Y is a PFOF trading venue operating with a regulated market license. Our data shows the trading venue seems to handle retail client orders from primarily one low-cost broker. Trading venue Y has one market maker acting as the counterparty for nearly all retail client orders in shares.
10 Assessing the quality of executions on trading venues PFOF trading venue Y Execution prices vs other trading venues Worse Similar Better Execution price vs other venues 81.5% 11.7% 6.8% Based on > 35,000 transactions Execution price vs Euronext Amsterdam 83.3% 9.8% 6.9% Based on 29,940 transactions Price improvement or deterioration Average price deterioration vs Euronext Amsterdam 11.5 bps Based on 29,940 transactions Average price deterioration for a trade of € 1,000 € 1.15 Based on 29,940 transactions Average price deterioration for a trade of € 3,000 € 3.46 Based on 29,940 transactions
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12 Assessing the quality of executions on trading venues Trading venue Z The outcomes below show that clients got a worse price in 22-24% of the cases and a better price in 1-2% of the transactions when compared to prices in the reference market(s). That is: 22.1% was worse compared to transactions on ten other trading venues and 23.5% was worse compared to transactions executed on Euronext Amsterdam. We found that – on average, when compared to executions on Euronext Amsterdam – clients trading on Trading venue Z are paying 0.8 basis points extra per transaction, or € 0.24 worse on a transaction of € 3,000. Trading venue Z is operating with a regulated market license. The trading venue is used by all kinds of firms, ranging from low cost neo-brokers to more traditional banks and investment firms. Both low cost neo-brokers with and without an inducement business model use Trading venue Z for execution of their clients’ orders. The trading venue allows for multiple market makers to provide liquidity and act as counterparty for client orders. trading venue Z Execution prices vs other trading venues Worse Similar Better Execution price vs other venues 22.1% 76.2% 1.7% Based on > 160,000 transactions Execution price vs Euronext Amsterdam 23.5% 74.6% 1.9% Based on 141,461 transactions Price improvement or deterioration Average price deterioration vs Euronext Amsterdam 0.8 bps Based on 142,461 transactions Average price deterioration for a trade of € 1,000 € 0.08 Based on 142,461 transactions Average price deterioration for a trade of € 3,000 € 0.24 Based on 142,461 transactions
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Investment firm A For the investment firm, we slightly modified the methodology. Since the investment firm is not a trading venue, we compare transactions via the investment firm to transactions occurring via other investment firms. The other steps in the methodology remain the same. The outcome below shows that clients got a worse price in 31-34% of the cases and a better price in 32-36% of the transactions compared to prices via other investment firms (and via other investment firms on Euronext Amsterdam). That is: 33.5% was worse when compared to transactions via other investment firms and 30.8% was worse when compared to transactions executed via other investment firms on Euronext Amsterdam. We found that – on average, when compared to executions on Euronext Amsterdam – clients trading via Investment firm A are paying 1.38 basis points extra per transaction (or € 0.42 worse for transaction of € 3,000).
15 Assessing the quality of executions on trading venues Investment firm A Execution prices vs other investment firms and Euronext Amsterdam Worse Similar Better Execution price vs other investment firms 33.5% 34.4% 32.1% Based on > 100,000 transactions Execution price vs Euronext Amsterdam 30.8% 33.5% 35.7% Based on 84,977 transactions Price improvement or deterioration Average price deterioration vs Euronext Amsterdam 1.4 bps Based on 84,977 transactions Average price deterioration for a trade of € 1,000 € 0.14 Based on 84,977 transactions Average price deterioration for a trade of € 3,000 € 0.42 Based on 84,977 transactions
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17 Assessing the quality of executions on trading venues Annex I Specifications of the Comparative Pricing Model
18 Assessing the quality of executions on trading venues (2) assign the transaction a “Worse execution” if the price of the transaction is higher than the maximum price paid in the same instrument in the same second on another trading venue (as occurring in R) (3) Otherwise assign a “Similar execution” Vice versa for sell-transactions. 6) Report the counts (e.a., number of “Worse execution”, “Better Execution” and “Similar execution”) In addition, one could compute the deviation between the price of the relevant transactions and the average price of all transactions in the same instrument in the same second as occurring on the other trading venues. We convert this deviation to basis points, then take the average to obtain the difference in cost of execution on the relevant market as compared to the reference trading venues. Example report calculated best-ex indicators for platform X Reference market = Top 10 markets in relevant instruments in relevant period of time A = the cost of trading away from the average price on the reference market(s)16 B = the number of price improvements compared to the reference markets C = the number of price deteriorations compared to the reference markets D = the number of “similar” executions compared to the reference markets 16 To be calculated under 6).
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TARGET DATASET REFERENCE DATASET Quarter Q1 2021 Q1 2021 Number of transactions 318,053 1,376,872 Value of transactions EUR 25,997,354. - EUR 1,524,978,132
INDICATOR INDICATORS FOR PLATFORM X A 0.1 % based on total euro value B 3% based on total number of transactions C 21% based on total number of transactions D 76% based on total number of transactions
20 Assessing the quality of executions on trading venues Annex II Questions and answers
21 Assessing the quality of executions on trading venues By including a sufficiently large number of data-points, we assume the overall results are – despite errors in individual cases – a reasonably good reflection of the actual quality of execution on the relevant trading venue. 5. Question: Could the Comparative Pricing Model also be used to assess the quality of execution in other types of financial instruments than shares? Answer: In principle the same method could be applied to many other asset classes. However, one (most likely) would have to make some modifications. One should for example consider the liquidity of the relevant financial instrument: an illiquid instrument might have none/few transactions occurring within the same second on another trading venue, forcing one to possibly extend the period beyond one second, for example. 6. Question: Why don’t you include volume in your analysis? Surely volume is relevant when comparing the quality of execution of transactions? Answer: The AFM realizes that comparing transactions with small volumes to transactions with large volumes could distort the results. After all: due to price-impact one might expect larger transactions to have (with regards to price) a worse execution than smaller transactions would have had. For the purposes of this paper, the AFM assumes the distribution of volume per transaction to be relatively similar across trading venues. By including a sufficiently large number of data-points, we assume the overall results are – despite errors in individual cases –a reasonably good reflection of the actual quality of execution on the relevant trading venue (according to the logic similar to the Answer to Q.4 “What timestamp is used to match transactions on the relevant venue to the reference markets? And isn’t a period of one second too long to compare prices across trading venues?”). The Comparative Pricing Model could – for future purposes – be extended as to correct for difference in volume per transactions. One could – for example – compare the quality of execution on a trading venue for different volumes per transaction (“Bottom 10%, “Median”, “Top 10%”). 7. Question: Why don’t you look at different order types (market-orders versus limit-orders)? What are implications of not doing so? Answer: The AFM doesn’t have data on order type available for each trading venue. Yet the AFM realizes that order types can play a role in determining quality of execution. For example: a buytransaction (entered via a “market order”) on the relevant market (which is matched to best offer of e.a. “10.72”) might be compared to transactions executed via limit orders occurring on other trading venues (“10.70”). Strictly speaking, this first transaction shouldn’t be qualified as having “Worse Execution”. However, according to the same reasoning, there will also be cases in which the transaction is qualified as “Better Execution”, even though this isn’t the case. By including a sufficiently large number of datapoints, we assume the overall results are – despite errors in individual cases – a reasonably good reflection of the actual quality of execution on the relevant trading venue. Still, the method could be refined by distinguishing between order-types. 8. Question: What is the impact of Data Quality on the output of your analysis? Answer: Data Quality can have a large impact on any analyses. Since MIFID II-data is data reported by trading venues and firms, there could (in principle) be reporting issues. Therefore, we recommend always doing sanity-checks on at least the most important variables in your dataset. The most apparent example being the “timestamp” of a transaction, as it is crucial that trading venues and firms use synchronised clocks for different time-zones when reporting their transactions. Otherwise, one might be comparing transactions that were not actually executed within the same second.
22 Assessing the quality of executions on trading venues 9. Question: What does the analysis conclude about the practice of payment for order flow Answer: The objective of the analyses is not to draw definitive conclusions about PFOF or the effect of PFOF on the quality of execution: the objective is to assess the execution quality with regards to the execution price – for both PFOF and non-PFOF trading venues. According to our analyses, the studied PFOF-trading venues offer worse execution prices than the reference trading venues. Yet there might be other factors (partially) responsible for the worse execution prices, such as lack of competition for the orders on the particular trading venue.
23 Assessing the quality of executions on trading venues Annex III The Comparative Pricing Model and order-data analysis In this paper, the AFM explains how a National Competent Authority (“NCA”) could go about using reported transaction-data to determine the quality of executions on a trading venue. In short: by comparing the prices of many transactions on the relevant trading venue with prices of transactions occurring at the same point in time on other trading venues, we established a robust approximation of the execution quality on the relevant trading venue. In response to our paper, the AFM noticed that some parties would have liked us to compare transaction-data with order-data (instead of with transaction-data). Especially: comparing the execution on the relevant trading venue with the best bid and best offer on a liquid reference market. Some respondents claimed such a method might provide different results or a possibly better method to assess execution quality. The AFM would like to refer to the chapters 1 Introduction and 2 Methodology for an explanation as to why we prefer the Comparative Pricing Model to an order-data based analysis. Since the AFM has order-data of Euronext Amsterdam at its disposal, we can indeed compare executions on the relevant trading venue with the relevant best bid and best offer at the time of the transaction on a liquid reference market. The most liquid reference market for Dutch shares is Euronext Amsterdam. As the AFM has this order-data at its disposal, we can compare the best bid and best offer on Euronext Amsterdam with the actual execution price of the relevant transactions on a millisecond level. Doing so, the AFM obtained the following results. The execution prices on the relevant PFOF venues were structurally worse compared to the quoted (best bid and best offer) prices on Euronext Amsterdam. The results are very similar to the ones obtained via the Comparative Pricing Model. We believe these results validate the Comparative Pricing Model and might show NCAs – especially those that don’t have order-data at their disposal – that the transaction-based analysis is indeed a valid method to use instead. Methodology used for the order-data based analysis Transaction-data (1) Select the trading venue to assess (2) Take 5 most traded Dutch shares on (1) in 202117 (3) Take a relevant time period (we took the first four months of 2021) which provides sufficient data points (4) Take all MiFID-II reported transactions on (1) in shares (2) in period (3) during regular market hours (5) Determine relevant side in transactions (4) (“Buy” or “Sell”) according to logic from the Comparative Pricing Model Order-data (6) Using Euronext Amsterdam order-data, take the best bid and best offer per millisecond in the shares (2) in period (3). Specifically: we only list the milliseconds – and best bids/best offer – in which the best bid or best offer changed. This is equivalent to saying the best bid and best offer was constant in between two subsequent timestamps. (7) For each transaction obtained via (5) (reported up to milliseconds) we find the last change in best bid and best offer before the relevant transaction. This is equivalent to taking the best bid and best offer at Euronext Amsterdam at the millisecond of the transaction. 17 We use 5 shares because including more shares would be too computationally intensive.
24 Assessing the quality of executions on trading venues (8) We compare the execution following the same logic of the Comparative Pricing Model (replacing “maxprice” with “best offer” and “minprice” with “best bid”). For example: a buy-transaction would have “Better Execution” on the relevant trading venue if the price was lower than “best bid” at time of transaction; “Worse” in case price was higher than “best offer”; “Similar” otherwise. Doing so, we obtain comparisons such as the following: And graphically: Below, the results of these order-data analyses are included for PFOF trading venues X and Y and trading venue Z. These are the same trading venues as used in Chapter III of this paper. The results are similar to the Comparative Pricing Model. For instance, on PFOF trading venue X the Comparative Pricing Model found 72% worse executions in the same time period. This is 72.7% compared to Euronext in the order-data analysis. For PFOF trading venue Y this is 83.3% vs 77.9% and for trading venue Z 23.5% vs 26.9%. The second chart per trading venue shows the price improvements or price deteriorations versus the mid-price at Euronext Amsterdam.
25 Assessing the quality of executions on trading venues PFOF Trading Venue X
26 Assessing the quality of executions on trading venues PFOF Trading Venue Y
27 Assessing the quality of executions on trading venues Trading Venue Z
28 Assessing the quality of executions on trading venues Follow us: → The AFM is committed to promoting fair and transparent financial markets. As an independent market conduct authority, we contribute to a sustainable financial system and prosperity in the Netherlands. The text of this publication has been compiled with care and is informative in nature. No rights may be derived from it. Changes to national and international legislation and regulation may mean that the text is no longer fully up to date when you read it. The Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets is not liable for any consequences - such as losses incurred or lost profits - of any actions taken in connection with this text © Copyright AFM 2022 The Dutch Authority for the Financial Markets PO Box 11723 | 1001 GS Amsterdam Telephone +31 20 797 2000 www.afm.nl Data classification AFM - Public