Bank of Thailand Press Release on Economic and Monetary Conditions for March and Q1 2026

Press Release on the Economic and Monetary Conditions for March and Q1/2026

BOT Press Release No. 17/2026 | 30 Apr 2026

Summary

Thailand’s economy expanded in the first quarter, supported by both demand and supply side factors, reflecting favorable economic conditions prior to the escalation of the Middle East conflict. In March, overall economic activity stabilized from the previous month.

• Merchandise exports and manufacturing production continued to increase , alongside an expansion in government expenditure. - Early signs of economic impact from the Middle East conflict has begun to emerge. Tourist arrivals from the Middle East and Europe have declined sharply, exports to the Middle East and Europe contracted significantly , and fuel imports increased as firms accelerated sourcing from alternative suppliers. Private consumption also softened , particularly in hotels and restaurants, despite some front-loaded spending on fuel amid concerns over rising prices. Headline inflation moved closer to zero from negative territory in the previous month , driven mainly by energy prices. Core inflation remained positive and broadly unchanged, suggesting limited pass‑through of cost pressures to consumer prices. Key issues to monitor : (1) Middle East conflict developments, (2) the extent to which businesses and households can adapt, (3) government economic stimulus measures, and (4) potential shifts in U.S. trade policy.

Thailand’s economy in March remained broadly stable from the previous month. Merchandise exports excluding gold increased, led by continued growth in the electronics sector. Some product groups also increased from temporary firm‑specific factors. Manufacturing production rose, supported by higher sugar output and a rebound in petroleum production following the resumption of refinery operations. Government expenditure also expanded, led by both central government and state‑owned enterprise spending. However, spillovers from the Middle East conflict have started to emerge. Foreign tourist arrivals declined sharply, particularly from the Middle East and Europe. However, tourism receipts increased, but only due to temporarily longer lengths of stay amid reduced flight services. Exports to the Middle East contracted significantly across all product groups. Private consumption softened, despite some front‑loaded spending on fuel and consumer goods amid concerns over rising prices. The decline was driven mainly by lower spending on hotels and restaurants, in line with weaker service‑sector activity due to fewer Thai and foreign tourists. Meanwhile, private investment has not yet been clearly impacted from the Middle East conflict, but moderated following earlier front‑loaded expansion.

On the economic stability front ,

headline inflation rose close to zero from negative territory in the previous month, driven by higher energy price. Core inflation remained positive and broadly unchanged, suggesting limited pass‑through of cost pressures to consumer prices, despite increases in cleaning product prices and airfares. The current account surplus narrowed, reflecting a trade deficit due to accelerated imports, alongside a smaller surplus in services, income, and transfers. Meanwhile, overall labor market conditions improved.

Thailand’s economy in the first quarter expanded from the previous quarter, supported by both demand and supply side factors. On the demand side, merchandise exports excluding gold continued to increase, led by technology‑related products. Domestic demand also improved, as private consumption rose following front‑loaded vehicle deliveries after the expiration of the EV 3.0 scheme, alongside accelerated fuel purchases towards the end of the quarter amid concerns over price increases. Private investment expanded, driven mainly by machinery and equipment, alongside an increase in government expenditure. On the supply side, manufacturing production increased, supported by higher petroleum output following major refinery maintenance in the previous quarter, as well as capacity expansion by large firms in the chemical industry. Services also expanded, led mainly by trade‑related activities, in line with higher production and exports. However, towards the end of the quarter, the economy began to be affected by the conflict in the Middle East, reflected in a sharp decline in exports to the Middle East and weaker foreign tourist arrivals, particularly from the Middle East and Europe.

On the economic stability front in the first quarter, headline inflation remained negative and broadly unchanged from the previous quarter, mainly reflecting declines in electricity prices that stem largely from high base effects in the previous year. Raw food prices became less negative, led by higher rice prices. Meanwhile, core inflation remained positive and broadly unchanged from the previous quarter. Towards the end of the quarter, while headline inflation began to be affected by rising energy prices, cost pass‑through to prices of goods and services in the core inflation basket remained limited. The current account recorded a surplus, driven mainly by a surplus in the services, income, and transfers balance. Meanwhile, labor market conditions weakened from the previous quarter.

Press Release Documents

1. Table Attached 1

2. Table Attached 2

For further information, please contact:

Macroeconomic Unit

+66(0) 2283 5639, +66(0) 2283 5647

macroeconomic-epd@bot.or.th

Related Tag

Economic and Monetary Conditions