2026-06-03
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The Central Reserve Bank of Peru issued its May 2026 Financial Stability Report, confirming the resilience of the national financial sector amid heightened geopolitical tensions and international market volatility. The document highlights that the Peruvian economy maintains strong macroeconomic fundamentals, including solid solvency, ample liquidity, and improving credit profitability, which support its ability to withstand external shocks. Additionally, the report details positive developments in the capital markets, effective monetary policy transmission, and the continued expansion of digital payment infrastructure and interoperability.
FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT - May 2017 CENTRAL RESERVE BANK OF PERU MAY 2026
FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT May 2026 1 System No.: INF-2026-004535 Signed with digital certificates issued by RENIEC. The signatories' names appear on the last page.
FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT May 2026
CONTENTS I. MACROFINANCIAL ANALYSIS ................................................................. 4 II. FINANCIAL SYSTEM ANALYSIS .................................................... 20 II.1. Lending ..............................................................................................21 II.2. Portfolio Quality.......................................................................................26 II.3. Reactive Portfolio and Restructured Portfolio.................................................28 II.4. Liquidity and Funding Sources ..........................................................29 II.5. Interest Rate Risk in the Investment Portfolio ...............................31 II.6. Profitability and Solvency of the Financial System ..........................................32 II.7. Stress Testing and Risk Factors of the Financial System....................45 III. CAPITAL MARKET ANALYSIS .............................................. 50 III.1. Private Sector Debt Market.......................................................54 III.2. Equity Market .......................................................................57 III.3. Institutional Investors......................................................................59 III.4. Risk Factors for the Capital Market.....................................68 IV. MONEY AND FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS................................................... 71 IV.1. Money Market....................................................................................71 IV.2. Foreign Exchange Market ...................................................................................73 V. NATIONAL PAYMENTS SYSTEM ............................................................. 80 V.1. Digitalization of Payments ..............................................................................80 V.2. Digital Money Innovation Pilot..........................................................82 V.3. Interoperability.........................................................................................84 V.4. Implementation of the Retail Payments Platform Project............90
INDEX OF BOXES Box 1: Transmission Channels of Geopolitical Risk to Financial Stability ........6 Box 2: Financial Conditions Index for LATAM Countries...............................9 Box 3: Implementation of Open Finance: Use Cases at the International Level......35 Box 4: Financial System Consolidation Process...........................................41 Box 5: Evolution of Assets Under Management by Institutional Investors in Peru...................................................................................................64 Box 6: Digital Wallets: Access, Usage, and the Role of Interoperability......................88
FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT May 2026 2 System No.: INF-2026-004535 Signed with digital certificates issued by RENIEC. The signatories' names appear on the last page.
Summary i. The Peruvian financial sector remains solid in a more volatile international environment, marked by the conflict in the Middle East, which has increased uncertainty, oil prices, and yields on sovereign bonds of developed countries. Although some risks moderated in April 2026, the possibility of further intensification of the conflict and tighter financial conditions persists. In this context, the Peruvian economy stands out for its solid macroeconomic fundamentals—growth close to its potential, low public debt, exchange rate stability, and high international reserves—supported additionally by high metal prices. These factors reinforce the resilience of the financial sector, although risks remain associated with a potential economic slowdown and greater inflationary pressures globally. ii. The Peruvian financial system maintains a solid and resilient position, supported by high levels of solvency and liquidity, as well as a sustained recovery in profitability and credit. These factors create favorable initial conditions to face potential external shocks, allowing the system to preserve its financial intermediation function. iii. Lending is consolidating its growth, driven mainly by the dynamism of the retail segment—particularly consumption and SMEs—in a context of recovering domestic demand and improved credit risk management. The dollarization of credit remains low and stable, especially in more vulnerable segments. In parallel, credit risk indicators continue to improve and are located at levels close to those prior to the pandemic, with a reduction in provisioning expenses and high coverage levels. iv. The financial system maintains ample liquidity levels, backed by strong deposit growth—especially in soles—associated with withdrawals from pension funds. The composition of deposits has shifted towards more liquid modalities (checking and savings), which reduces financial costs. Furthermore, loan-to-deposit ratios remain below pre-pandemic levels, evidencing ample capacity to support credit expansion. Additionally, the dollarization of liabilities continues to decrease and dependence on external financing remains low, strengthening the system's resilience against international shocks. v. The profitability of the financial system continues to improve and sits above pre-pandemic levels, driven mainly by the reduction in provisioning expenses and financial costs. As a result, the system maintains solid solvency levels, with a global capital ratio significantly above the regulatory minimum and high capital surpluses, reinforced through the capitalization of profits, capital contributions, and the issuance of subordinate debt. vi. Regarding the domestic capital market, the equity segment shows positive performance in 2026 so far, despite the greater volatility observed last March and electoral uncertainty. This dynamism is also reflected in an increase in amounts traded on the local stock exchange, driven by high metal prices and the growth of economic activity.
FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT May 2026 3 System No.: INF-2026-004535 Signed with digital certificates issued by RENIEC. The signatories' names appear on the last page. vii. Treasury Bond (BTP) prices decreased slightly year-to-date, in line with the evolution of sovereign bonds in developed economies. In this context, non-resident investors continued to consolidate their BTP holdings, reflecting sustained confidence in the fundamentals of our economy. In the first quarter of 2026, the private sector fixed-income market showed less dynamism due to a decrease in international issuances. In contrast, local issuances registered greater growth, with a higher participation of longer-term instruments compared to previous years, in an environment of gradual improvement in business confidence. viii. Monetary policy actions have been effectively transmitted to local money market interest rates. National currency liquidity in the banking sector increased mainly due to the injection of national currency liquidity resulting from the Central Reserve Bank of Peru's (BCRP) dollar purchases in the spot market. On the other hand, foreign currency liquidity in the banking sector increased to touch a historical maximum due to the inflow of dollars from abroad through current account flows and the repatriation of funds from Pension Fund Administrators (AFPs) to meet withdrawals. ix. Our currency appreciated until the end of February, in line with regional currencies. However, this trend reversed in March with the start of the conflict in the Middle East and the proximity of the electoral process. In this context, the BCRP intervened in the foreign exchange market to reduce excessive exchange rate volatility. Nevertheless, the sol has remained the currency with the lowest volatility in the region, due to Peru's solid macroeconomic fundamentals and its low correlation with risk assets. x. Digital payments maintain a rapid adoption dynamic, reaching 1.8 daily digital payments per adult in 2025. Digital wallets continue to gain relevance in retail payments, while cards remain the second most used payment instrument, registering a reduction in fees for merchants that accept them. On the other hand, the BCRP extended the validity of the Digital Money Innovation Pilot for an additional year. Thus, after the first annual evaluation phase ended on March 10, 2026, the extended period of the Pilot began, which can be extended until March 10, 2027. On the other hand, the BCRP's Interoperability Strategy continues to promote the use of digital payments in the country, generating more than 275 million monthly transactions as of March 2026. This progress responds to the progressive deployment of interoperability phases that have allowed the interconnection between wallets, from these with participants in the Electronic Clearing House, QR codes, and electronic money accounts. The BCRP's Retail Payments Platform, called Peruvian Automatic Payment Transfers (Tapp), continues to advance in its implementation process, reaching relevant milestones corresponding to Phase 2 of the project. This technological infrastructure, conceived as a new rail for digital payments and based on the Unified Payment Interface (UPI) technology developed in India, has a defined integration architecture model for its operation within the current Peruvian payments ecosystem.
FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT May 2026 4 System No.: INF-2026-004535 Signed with digital certificates issued by RENIEC. The signatories' names appear on the last page.
I. MACROFINANCIAL ANALYSIS
Chart 1.1: Financial Stress Index In this context, the Peruvian Financial Sector Stress Index—which covers the financial system, as well as capital, money, and foreign exchange markets—is located at levels of greater slack compared to the last edition of this report. This behavior responds mainly to the strength of the financial system and the revaluation of equity assets, in an environment of high metal prices and solid economic performance. The index continued to decrease until January 2026, when it reached its minimum level (greatest slack) since 2008. However, since February 2026, a decrease in this slack has been observed, associated with the impacts of geopolitical tensions on stock markets, although the indicator remains at favorable levels. Within the financial system, entities maintain solid solvency and liquidity positions.
FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT May 2026 5 System No.: INF-2026-004535 Signed with digital certificates issued by RENIEC. The signatories' names appear on the last page. Credit risk has consolidated its recovery, while lending evidences greater dynamism in a positive macroeconomic context. As a result, the profitability of most financial entities is at levels comparable to those prior to the pandemic, which contributes to strengthening their solvency through the capitalization of profits. 2. International financial conditions deteriorated with respect to 2025, in a context of greater geopolitical tensions associated with the conflict in the Middle East. The conflict severely affected transit through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic route for global hydrocarbon trade, which put upward pressure on the price of oil and elevated risks of greater inflation and lower growth globally. However, the deterioration in international financial conditions began to reverse after the announcement of the ceasefire and negotiations to end the conflict in April.
Chart 1.2: International Capital Market Risk Indicators *Last update: April 30, 2026
The increase in global risk perception was reflected in a rebound in the main volatility and risk premium indicators such as VIX, VXEEM, and EMBIG Latam, which reached levels of 30.6 percent, 39.8 percent, and 330 basis points, respectively, towards the end of March. Nevertheless, the increase in credit risk in Latin America would have been partially attenuated by the reduction of risk premiums in some net oil-exporting economies, favored by the improvement in their terms of trade. In early April 2026, volatility indicators began to partially reverse after the announcement of the ceasefire. However, uncertainty persists regarding the resolution of the conflict in the Middle East. In the weeks following the cessation of hostilities, restrictions on maritime transit, security incidents, and doubts regarding its sustainability remain. Consequently, although a partial relief has been observed in markets, international financial conditions continue to be exposed to episodes of volatility in the event of further deterioration of the geopolitical environment. Although the recent deterioration of international financial conditions has been partially reversed, the persistence of geopolitical tension hotspots and uncertainty regarding the evolution of the conflict in the Middle East justify a more detailed analysis of their potential macrofinancial implications. In particular, it is relevant to evaluate the
FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT May 2026 6 System No.: INF-2026-004535 Signed with digital certificates issued by RENIEC. The signatories' names appear on the last page. main transmission mechanisms to the global economy, as well as the specific channels through which these episodes could impact the Peruvian economy (see Box 1).
Box 1: Transmission Channels of Geopolitical Risk to Financial Stability The intensification of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East during March 2026 significantly increased global uncertainty, the price of oil, and generated a significant adjustment in financial asset prices. However, from a financial stability perspective, geopolitical risk should not be understood solely as an event that temporarily alters some relative prices, but as a shock that, if exacerbated in a prolonged manner, can deteriorate global financial conditions, affect the balance sheets of households, companies, and financial intermediaries, and amplify through market mechanisms and pre-existing vulnerabilities. The purpose of this analysis is to explain the mechanisms through which this geopolitical risk affects financial stability beyond the volatility of asset prices. In this regard, the latest Financial Stability Report1 (April 2026) of the International Monetary Fund emphasizes the importance of identifying these amplification mechanisms that could transform episodes of "market disorder" into events of "financial instability." Under this framework, transmission occurs through 4 main channels:
Transmission Channels A first channel operates through the real sector and relative prices. The conflict in a key region for energy production and transport raises the price of oil and gas, makes international transport more expensive, and puts upward pressure on production costs globally. This shock is quickly transmitted to inflation through higher prices of fuels, energy, fertilizers, and food, reducing household real income and compressing corporate margins. The national economy, due to its dependence on imported fuels, would be directly affected as international price increases are transmitted to the structure of production costs, transport, and domestic inflation. Although Peru is a net exporter of metals, whose prices are going through a good moment and mitigate the negative effects of a macroeconomic shock, a potential global economic slowdown, derived from high oil prices, would depress demand for industrial raw materials and could erode terms of trade. This scenario would be more likely if the conflict prolongs for several more months. Additionally, the increase in the price of oil and natural gas drastically raises the cost of synthetic fertilizers, such as urea and phosphates, whose production and transport depend intensively on hydrocarbons. For the Peruvian agricultural sector, highly dependent on these imported inputs, this increase raises cultivation costs and reduces producer profitability. This supply shock not only puts upward pressure on food inflation but also deteriorates the payment capacity of debtors in the agricultural sector, increasing credit risk in rural portfolios. A second channel of relevance relates to inflation expectations and global financial conditions. This is because if high energy prices persist, it would unanchor inflation expectations, increasing expected inflation. In turn, this would reduce the probability of rate cuts, impacting sovereign bond yields. 1 International Monetary Fund. (2026, April). Global Financial Stability Report: Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks. https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2026/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2026
FINANCIAL STABILITY REPORT May 2026 7 System No.: INF-2026-004535 Signed with digital certificates issued by RENIEC. The signatories' names appear on the last page. sovereigns. This increase in yields reduces the market value of existing portfolios and raises refinancing costs for corporate issuers. For Peru, this channel could translate into an increase in the cost of external funding and an increase in sovereign and corporate spreads. This would generate a restriction on international liquidity, especially in emerging countries, which would increase the cost of capital for these economies. The transmission to the sol-denominated sovereign bond curve would increase interest rates, discouraging private investment and putting pressure on the balance sheets of highly leveraged companies, which elevates credit risk in the local financial system.
A third channel corresponds to the increase in global risk aversion and capital outflows, because, in episodes of high uncertainty, global investors usually reconfigure portfolios towards more liquid and safe assets, reducing their exposure to emerging markets. This produces an outflow of short-term capital flows, which generates depreciation pressures on the exchange rate and an increase in its volatility. Simultaneously, the rebalancing of portfolios by non-resident investors, through the reduction of their positions in local assets, induces a reduction in the price of such instruments. In the Peruvian economy, a potential depreciation of the exchange rate and an increase in volatility can affect companies that maintain dollar-denominated debt and do not have derivatives or dollar income, increasing exchange rate credit risk. Additionally, a reduction in the price of local assets would affect the portfolios of pension funds, mutual funds, and insurance companies. On the other hand, the exit of non-resident investors from the Peruvian sovereign bond market puts upward pressure on local interest rates, making the cost of credit more expensive for the public and private sectors, in addition to producing valuation losses in the sovereign bond portfolios of institutional investors, such as banks. Finally, geopolitical risk can amplify through markets and balance sheets, because, although the initial adjustment of asset prices may be orderly, a prolongation or intensification of the shock can activate non-linear mechanisms, such as margin calls, forced sales due to liquidity constraints, and adjustments in market makers' hedging strategies. These processes can exacerbate volatility, reduce liquidity, and propagate stress to initially unaffected segments. For example, the correction in the price of derivative instruments activates amplification mechanisms such as margin calls, where counterparties demand additional guarantees. In the face of liquidity constraints...