Meeting of the National Bank Council

Skopje, 29 July 2026 Skopje, 29 July 2026

The Council adopts the Quarterly Report: The latest macroeconomic developments are mainly in line with the National Bank forecasts

The National Bank Council adopted the Quarterly Report, according to which the latest macroeconomic indicators are mainly in line with the April forecasts. The Report indicates that the external position of the country is stable, while foreign reserves are maintained at an appropriate level to preserve the exchange rate of the denar against the euro.  The domestic inflation accelerated, as expected in the second quarter, and remained relatively high, amid gradual deceleration during the quarter.  The economic activity is resilient to the uncertain external environment, with a solid growth of deposits and loans in the banking sector.

In the second quarter of 2026, the National Bank increased the policy rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4.25 % , amid prolonged inflation and high uncertainty from the external environment.  The current monetary setup together with the changes in other monetary instruments aim at contributing to the maintenance of the denar exchange rate stability and stability of inflation and inflation expectations.  In the second quarter, the average inflation equaled 4.6%, amid gradual deceleration during the quarter, dropping to 3.4% in June. However, its return to the historical average is slower, amid pronounced risks from geopolitical developments, movement of primary commodity prices on global stock markets and from domestic factors affecting demand.    For 2026, average inflation of 4% is expected, while 3 % for 2027.

In the first quarter of 2026, the economic activity noted a real annual growth of 3.1%, almost in line with the forecast, mainly driven by domestic demand.  The indicators for the second quarter point to a possible growth acceleration, while GDP growth of 3.5% in expected for the entire 2026.

The external position of the country is assessed as stable.  In the first quarter, the current account registered a deficit of 1.6% of GDP, which is an annual improvement, while the financial account noted net inflows of 2.9% of GDP.  Foreign reserves remain in the safe zone and equaled Euro 4,936.4 million.  As of early May onwards, the foreign currency market is stable, amid minor National Bank interventions both, on the side of sales and on the side of purchasing foreign currency.

Monetary sector data point to further solid credit activity and strengthening of the banks’ deposit base. Further favorable movements were registered in the structure of savings, with a growth in denar and long-term deposits.

At its meeting, the National Bank Council also discussed other issues related to the bank’s regular operations.