Regulatory Alerts2026-08-14
Added
Monetary Program August 2026
The Board of Directors of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) decided to maintain the reference interest rate at 4.25 percent. In July 2026, total inflation rose to 4.1 percent and core inflation to 4.6 percent, driven by seasonal transport costs and food prices, while 12-month inflation expectations increased to 3.0 percent. The BCRP projects inflation will return to the target range of around 2 percent as supply shocks dissipate, though it monitors risks from a potential strong El Niño event and geopolitical tensions.
Monetary Program August 2026 1 14 August 2026
The Board of Directors of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) agreed to maintain the reference interest rate at 4.25 percent.
2 Nominal and Real Reference Interest Rate (in percentage) Source: BCRP.
- With inflation expectations.
| Aug. 25 | Sep. 25 | Oct. 25 | Nov. 25 | Dec. 25 | Jan. 26 | Feb. 26 | Mar. 26 | Apr. 26 | May. 26 | Jun. 26 | Jul. 26 | Aug. 26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (I) Nominal Rate | 4,50 | 4,25 | |||||||||||
| (II) Inflation Expectations | 2,19 | 2,18 | 2,16 | 2,19 | 2,16 | 2,13 | 2,03 | 2,14 | 2,52 | 2,82 | 2,89 | ||
| (III) Real Rate: (I) - (II) | 2,31 | 2,07 | 2,09 | 2,06 | 2,09 | 2,12 | 2,22 | 2,11 | 1,73 | 1,43 | 1,36 |
4,25 1,24 -4,0 -2,0 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20 Dec-20 Feb-21 Apr-21 Jun-21 Aug-21 Oct-21 Dec-21 Feb-22 Apr-22 Jun-22 Aug-22 Oct-22 Dec-22 Feb-23 Apr-23 Jun-23 Aug-23 Oct-23 Dec-23 Feb-24 Apr-24 Jun-24 Aug-24 Oct-24 Dec-24 Feb-25 Apr-25 Jun-25 Aug-25 Oct-25 Dec-25 Feb-26 Apr-26 Jun-26 Aug-26 Nominal Reference Rate Real Reference Rate *
3 Real Monetary Policy Interest Rates in Latin America * (in percentage)
- Monetary policy rates and expectations updated to 12 August 2026. Source: Central Banks. The reference interest rate has been the lowest among the main countries in the region during this decade.
| Country | Nominal Interest Rate | 12-Month Inflation Expectation | Ex Ante Real Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 14,00 | 4,56 | 9,44 |
| Colombia | 12,00 | 5,49 | 6,51 |
| Mexico | 6,50 | 3,91 | 2,59 |
| Chile | 4,50 | 3,00 | 1,50 |
| Peru | 4,25 | 3,01 | 1,24 |
4 Inflation (12-month percentage variation) Source: INEI. In July, monthly inflation was 0.29 percent and inflation excluding food and energy was 0.28 percent. This result was explained mainly by the increase in prices of some foods and by the increase in national transport tariffs due to higher seasonal demand for National Holidays. On a year-on-year basis, total inflation increased from 4.0 percent in June to 4.1 percent in July, while inflation excluding food and energy increased from 4.5 to 4.6 percent in the same period.
5 This deviation from the target range responds mainly to the rise in fuels and its effects on transport costs in March and April. Excluding the transport item, underlying inflation was 1.7 percent year-on-year, and has remained below 2 percent since April of last year.
- The transport item is estimated with INEI report. Source: INEI and BCRP. Inflation: July 2026 * (percentage variations)
| Weight | Month | 12 Months | Month | 12 Months | Month | 12 Months | Month | 12 Months | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI | 100,0 | 0,7 | 2,2 | 2,4 | 3,8 | 0,5 | 4,0 | 0,3 | 4,1 |
| 1. CPI excluding food and energy | 55,3 | 0,4 | 2,2 | 2,1 | 3,7 | 0,9 | 4,4 | 0,3 | 4,6 |
| Excluding transport | 46,1 | 0,4 | 1,8 | 0,5 | 1,5 | 0,1 | 1,5 | 0,2 | 1,7 |
| Goods | 17,4 | 0,1 | 0,8 | 0,1 | 0,5 | 0,2 | 0,6 | 0,2 | 0,9 |
| Services | 37,9 | 0,5 | 2,8 | 3,0 | 5,1 | 1,2 | 6,1 | 0,3 | 6,2 |
| Transport | 9,1 | 0,3 | 4,1 | 9,1 | 14,1 | 4,0 | 18,1 | 0,7 | 18,2 |
| Education | 8,6 | 0,2 | 3,8 | 2,9 | 3,4 | 0,0 | 3,4 | 0,1 | 3,6 |
| Water supply | 1,4 | 10,3 | 10,3 | 0,0 | 10,3 | 0,0 | 10,3 | 0,0 | 10,3 |
| Other services | 5,0 | 0,2 | 2,5 | 0,2 | 2,4 | 0,3 | 2,5 | 0,1 | 2,4 |
| 2. Food and energy | 44,7 | 1,1 | 2,2 | 2,7 | 4,0 | 0,1 | 3,6 | 0,3 | 3,5 |
| a. Food and beverages | 40,0 | 1,3 | 3,3 | 2,2 | 4,4 | 0,1 | 3,8 | 0,5 | 3,6 |
| b. Fuels and electricity | 4,8 | -1,0 | -8,8 | 8,8 | -0,2 | 0,7 | 0,9 | -1,4 | 1,9 |
| Fuels | 2,1 | 1,4 | -7,8 | 20,1 | 11,8 | 0,4 | 13,5 | -2,6 | 10,1 |
| Vehicle fuels | 1,1 | 2,8 | -7,5 | 30,9 | 23,3 | 2,8 | 28,4 | -4,1 | 17,8 |
| Domestic gas | 0,8 | 0,0 | -8,0 | 12,5 | 3,6 | -2,9 | 1,6 | -1,1 | 4,3 |
| Electricity | 2,6 | -2,8 | -9,5 | -0,4 | -9,7 | 0,9 | -8,9 | -0,3 | -4,4 |
Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 Jul-26
In July, 38 percent of the CPI items registered rates higher than 3 percent, a level similar to that observed in periods when inflation is within the target range. Dispersion Index and Percentage of CPI items with year-on-year price variation greater than 3 percent Source: INEI and BCRP. 6 Jul-26; 38,3 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-23 Jul-24 Jul-25 Jul-26
Average 2001-2026: 39 Average around 2 percent: 27
| Aug-25 | Sep-25 | Oct-25 | Nov-25 | Dec-25 | Jan-26 | Feb-26 | Mar-26 | Apr-26 | May-26 | Jun-26 | Jul-26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | 30 | 36 | 36 | 35 | 32 | 36 | 35 | 34 | 34 | 33 | 36 | 36 |
| Number of items: | ||||||||||||
| Items with variation greater than 3% | 57 | 67 | 68 | 65 | 61 | 68 | 66 | 64 | 64 | 62 | 68 | 67 |
| Items with variation less than 3% | 131 | 121 | 120 | 123 | 127 | 120 | 122 | 124 | 124 | 126 | 120 | 121 |
Source: BCRP. 7 Twelve-month inflation expectations increased from 2.8 percent in June to 3.0 percent in July, at the upper limit of the inflation target range. 12 and 24-month inflation expectations of analysts and the financial system (in percentage) Macroeconomic Expectations Survey: Inflation (in percentage) Note: 12-month inflation expectations are calculated as the simple average of the 12-month expectations of the financial system and economic analysts. For each of them, an estimate of the 12-month expectation is obtained by weighting the expectation of the year by the number of months remaining and the expectations of the following year by the number of months left to complete the 12 months. 1/ 20 analysts in May, 18 in June, and 20 in July 2026. 2/ 14 financial companies in May, 13 in June, and 14 in July of 2026. 3/ 278 non-financial companies in May, 302 in June, and 288 in July 2026. 4/ 12-month inflation expectations are calculated as the simple average of the 12-month expectations of the financial system and economic analysts. 5/ 24-month inflation expectations are calculated as the simple average of the 24-month expectations of the financial system and economic analysts.
| 29 May. | 30 Jun. | 31 Jul. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECONOMIC ANALYSTS 1/ | |||
| 2026 | 3,50 | 3,20 | 3,85 |
| 2027 | 2,60 | 2,50 | 2,53 |
| 2028 | 2,35 | 2,42 | 2,50 |
| FINANCIAL SYSTEM 2/ | |||
| 2026 | 2,95 | 3,10 | 3,55 |
| 2027 | 2,25 | 2,50 | 2,50 |
| 2028 | 2,20 | 2,30 | 2,25 |
| NON-FINANCIAL COMPANIES 3/ | |||
| 2026 | 2,80 | 2,80 | 3,00 |
| 2027 | 2,50 | ||
| 2028 | 2,50 | ||
| a 12 months 4/ | 2,89 | 2,83 | 3,01 |
| a 24 months 5/ | 2,36 | 2,43 | 2,43 |
Survey conducted on:
8 Leading indicators of economic activity to July continue to show good performance. Capital Goods Imports * (real year-on-year % var.) Internal IGV * (real year-on-year % var.) Durable Consumer Goods Imports * (real year-on-year % var.)
- July information is preliminary. Source: SUNAT, INEI and BCRP. Internal Cement Consumption * (year-on-year % var.)
9 Monetary aggregates, credit, and card transactions have shown high dynamism. Currency in Circulation * (nominal year-on-year % var.)
- July information is preliminary. ** Constant exchange rate. *** Without gas stations, financial entities, and government. Source: BCRP, Niubiz and Izipay. Total Credit ** (nominal year-on-year % var.) Total Liquidity ** (nominal year-on-year % var.) Card Transactions *** (nominal year-on-year % var.)
10 In the Central Bank survey, most current situation indicators registered an improvement compared to the previous month, while most expectation indicators showed a significant increase, all being in the optimistic range. Source: BCRP. Businessmen's expectations about the economy and sector in 3 months (Diffusion Index) Results of the Macroeconomic Expectations Survey Source: BCRP.
| May 2026 | June | July | Correlation with GDP 1/ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CURRENT BUSINESS SITUATION | ||||
| SALES LEVEL | 56,4 | 56,6 | > 57,6 | > 0,56 |
| PRODUCTION LEVEL | 56,2 | 55,3 | > 59,2 | > 0,49 |
| DEMAND LEVEL WITH RESPECT TO EXPECTED | 57,9 | 59,8 | > 58,7 | > 0,44 |
| PURCHASE ORDERS WITH RESPECT TO PREVIOUS MONTH | 47,0 | 48,6 | < 48,4 | ~ < 0,68 |
| UNWANTED INVENTORY DAYS 2/ | 51,5 | 54,3 | > 56,5 | > 0,52 |
| 9,5 | 11,7 | < 8,7 | < -0,36 | |
| EXPECTATION OF: | ||||
| THE ECONOMY IN 3 MONTHS | 46,2 | 55,5 | > 62,3 | > 0,63 |
| THE ECONOMY IN 12 MONTHS | 55,9 | 68,6 | > 72,1 | > 0,42 |
| THE SECTOR IN 3 MONTHS | 50,0 | 56,0 | > 58,6 | > 0,67 |
| THE SECTOR IN 12 MONTHS | 58,8 | 68,4 | > 67,8 | > 0,33 |
| YOUR COMPANY'S SITUATION IN 3 MONTHS | 53,8 | 58,6 | > 60,8 | > 0,66 |
| YOUR COMPANY'S SITUATION IN 12 MONTHS | 63,4 | 70,3 | > 69,9 | > 0,66 |
| DEMAND FOR YOUR PRODUCTS IN 3 MONTHS | 56,5 | 62,0 | > 62,7 | > 0,66 |
| DEMAND FOR YOUR PRODUCTS IN 12 MONTHS | 66,3 | 71,3 | > 71,1 | ~ > 0,66 |
| PERSONNEL HIRING IN 3 MONTHS | 53,2 | 54,6 | > 56,6 | > 0,66 |
| PERSONNEL HIRING IN 12 MONTHS | 59,0 | 63,0 | > 64,4 | > 0,58 |
| YOUR COMPANY'S INVESTMENT IN 3 MONTHS 3/ | 57,2 | 57,5 | > 59,2 | > 0,65 |
| YOUR COMPANY'S INVESTMENT IN 12 MONTHS 3/ | 63,7 | 67,2 | > 67,3 | ~ > 0,65 |
| EXPECTED AVERAGE PRICE OF: | ||||
| INPUTS IN 3 MONTHS | 60,7 | 58,9 | > 58,6 | > 0,63 |
| SALE IN 3 MONTHS | 61,2 | 58,5 | > 57,0 | > 0,59 |
: greater than 50 < : less than 50 ~ : Indicates that the monthly difference of each diffusion index is not greater, in absolute value, than 0.2. Arrows up or down indicate that this threshold was exceeded, while the "-" sign implies that the index did not vary. 1/ Correlations found from December 2007 to December 2019 respectively. For current situation indicators, contemporaneous correlation is shown, and for the rest of expectations, correlation with leading GDP is presented. 2/ Unwanted inventory days show the difference between the inventory days corresponding to each month minus the desired inventory days according to companies. 3/ Correlation with Private Investment from September 2017 to December 2019, considering optimal lag (t=-3 for 3-month investment and t=-6 for 12-month investment)
11 Global risks have recently moderated due to the relative normalization of supplies in the hydrocarbon market. However, uncertainty persists regarding the outcome of negotiations in the Middle East, which adds to other geopolitical and commercial risks. WTI Spot Quotation * (USD/bl.)
- Quotation as of 13 August. Source: Reuters.
| Price / Var. % Aug.26*/ Dec.25 | Aug.26*/ Feb.26 | Aug.26*/ May.26 | Aug.26*/ Jul.26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI (Spot) | 41,5 | 20,6 | -7,0 | -4,0 |
| WTI (Future Dec-26) | 36,3 | 19,8 | -0,9 | 1,5 |
12 In this environment, the favorable outlook for global economic activity growth continues to be positive and terms of trade remain favorable for the Peruvian economy. Terms of Trade (Index 100 = 2007) Source: BCRP.
- Corresponds to annual average. ** Projection from the June 2026 Inflation Report. Source: BCRP. Terms of Trade * (percentage variation)
13 It is projected that both year-on-year inflation and inflation excluding food and energy will return to the target range and be around 2 percent in the projection horizon, as the effects of supply shocks affecting inflation dissipate. However, there is a risk that a more intense El Niño Phenomenon and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may have more persistent effects on inflation. Source: ENFEN. Preparation: Department of Economic Activity Indicators. Estimated probability of occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon (zone 1+2) - 17 July (Percentage)
| Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weak Cold | 1 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 25 |
| Neutral | 5 | 15 | 23 | 22 | 22 | 26 | 27 | 25 | 78 |
| Weak | 65 | 49 | 39 | 38 | 30 | 22 | 20 | 30 | 36 |
| Moderate | 38 | 39 | 38 | 30 | 26 | 10 | |||
| Strong | |||||||||
| Extraordinary |
14 According to the monthly evaluation by NOAA (13 August 2026), the Global Niño strengthened in July and will continue to do so until the end of the year, with a probability greater than 90 percent of a very strong event during the autumn and early winter of the Northern Hemisphere (between September 2026 and January 2027). In the fourth quarter of 2026, there is a 69 percent probability that the magnitude of the event will be the largest since records began (1950). Source: NOAA
| Differential with respect to last communication (pp) | |
|---|---|
| JAS | |
| Moderate | -22 |
| Strong | 19 |
| Very Strong | 4 |
Estimated probability of occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon in the Central Pacific - 13 August (Percentage)
| JAS | ASO | SON | OND | NDE | DEF | EFM | FMA | MAM | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 3 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 43 | 4 | 1 | 1 |
| Weak | 6 | 21 | 42 | 32 | 76 | 24 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| Moderate | 23 | 38 | 29 | 7 | 20 | 75 | 93 | 95 | 90 |
| Strong | 70 | 35 | 6 | 0 | |||||
| Very Strong |
15 The Board remains especially attentive to new information on inflation and its determinants, including the evolution of underlying inflation, inflation expectations, economic activity, and the duration of supply shocks, in order to make, if necessary, adjustments in the monetary policy stance. The Board reaffirms its commitment to taking the necessary actions to guarantee the return of inflation to the target range in the projection horizon. Inflation Projection: 2026 - 2027 (percentage variation last twelve months)
- Executed to July 2026. Source: June 2026 Inflation Report.
Monetary Program August 2026 16 14 August 2026
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