Monetary Program for September 2026: BCRP maintained reference interest rate at 4.25%

INFORMATIONAL NOTE MONETARY PROGRAM FOR SEPTEMBER 2026 BCRP MAINTAINED THE REFERENCE INTEREST RATE AT 4.25%

1. The Board of Directors of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) agreed to maintain the reference interest rate at 4.25 percent.
2. The decision to maintain the reference rate took into account the following information and projections: i. In August, monthly inflation was 0.07 percent and inflation excluding food and energy was 0.02 percent. Year-on-year, inflation increased from 4.1 percent in July to 4.4 percent in August, mainly due to a base effect associated with the negative monthly inflation recorded in August of last year. Inflation excluding food and energy decreased from 4.6 to 4.5 percent in the same period. The deviation of inflation from the target range is mainly due to the rise in fuel prices and their effects on transport costs in March and April. Excluding the transport sector, underlying inflation stood at 1.8 percent year-on-year, and has remained below 2 percent since April of last year. ii. Twelve-month inflation expectations increased from 3.0 percent in July to 3.1 percent in August, slightly above the upper limit of the inflation target range. iii. Both year-on-year inflation and inflation excluding food and energy are projected to return to the target range and settle around 2 percent in the projection horizon, as the effects of supply shocks that affected inflation dissipate. However, there is a risk that the El Niño phenomenon and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may have more persistent effects on inflation. iv. Leading indicators of economic activity for August continue to show good performance. In the Central Bank's survey, all current situation indicators showed an improvement compared to the previous month, while expectation indicators remained in the optimistic range with some moderation. v. Global risks remain elevated, reflected in increased volatility in financial markets and international oil prices. Uncertainty also persists regarding tensions in the Middle East, compounded by other geopolitical and commercial risks. Despite this, global economic activity growth prospects remain positive, and terms of trade continue to favor the Peruvian economy.
3. The Board of Directors remains especially attentive to new information on inflation and its determinants, including the evolution of underlying inflation, inflation expectations, economic activity, and the duration of supply shocks, in order to make adjustments to the monetary policy stance in the short term. The Board of Directors reaffirms its commitment to adopt the necessary actions to ensure the return of inflation to the target range within the projection horizon.
4. In the same session, the Board of Directors agreed on the following interest rates for BCRP's national currency operations with the financial system under the window facility. i. Overnight deposits: 2.25 percent per annum. ii. Direct repo operations for securities and currency, and Monetary Regulation Credits: i) 4.75 percent per annum for the first 10 operations in the last 3 months; and ii) the interest rate set by the Monetary and Foreign Exchange Operations Committee for operations additional to these 10 operations in the last 3 months. Furthermore, the Monetary and Foreign Exchange Operations Committee may establish higher rates depending on the amount of the operations.
5. The next Board of Directors meeting to evaluate the Monetary Program is scheduled for October 7, 2026. Lima, September 10, 2026