Regulatory Alerts2026-07-10
Added · Updated
Monetary Program - July 2026
The Board of Directors of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) decided to maintain the reference interest rate at 4.25 percent. Inflation reached 4.0 percent year-on-year in June, driven by food prices, while forward-looking economic indicators and business expectations showed significant improvement and optimism. The BCRP remains vigilant regarding El Niño risks and geopolitical tensions, reaffirming its commitment to returning inflation to the target range.
Monetary Program
July 2026
10 July 2026
Reference Rates Nominal Reference Rate: 4.25 Real Reference Rate *: 1.42
[Chart: Nominal and Real Reference Rates from Jul-17 to Jul-26]
| Period | Jul. 25 | Aug. 25 | Sep. 25 | Oct. 25 | Nov. 25 | Dec. 25 | Jan. 26 | Feb. 26 | Mar. 26 | Apr. 26 | May. 26 | Jun. 26 | Jul. 26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| (I) Nominal Rate | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.25 | ||||||||||
| (II) Inflation Expectations | 2.28 | 2.19 | 2.18 | 2.16 | 2.19 | 2.16 | 2.13 | 2.03 | 2.14 | 2.52 | 2.82 | 2.89 | 2.83 |
| (III) Real Rate: (I) - (II) | 2.22 | 2.31 | 2.07 | 2.09 | 2.06 | 2.09 | 2.12 | 2.22 | 2.11 | 1.73 | 1.43 | 1.36 | 1.42 |
The Board of Directors of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) agreed to maintain the reference interest rate at 4.25 percent.
Nominal and Real Reference Interest Rates
(in percentage) Source: BCRP.
- With inflation expectations.
| Country | Nominal Interest Rate | 12-Month Inflation Expectation | Ex Ante Real Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 14.25 | 4.75 | 9.50 |
| Colombia | 12.00 | 5.57 | 6.43 |
| Mexico | 6.50 | 4.02 | 2.48 |
| Chile | 4.50 | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Peru | 4.25 | 2.83 | 1.42 |
Ex Ante Real Monetary Policy Interest Rates in Latin America *
(in percentage)
- Monetary policy rates and expectations updated as of 10 July 2026. Source: Central Banks. The reference interest rate has been the lowest among the main countries in the region since 2020.
Inflation
(12-month percentage variation) Source: INEI. In June, monthly inflation was 0.23 percent and inflation excluding food and energy was 0.08 percent, both compatible with the target range in annualized terms. The month's result was explained mainly by the increase in prices of some food items, particularly fish, affected by anomalous swells. On a year-on-year basis, total inflation increased from 3.9 percent in May to 4.0 percent in June, while inflation excluding food and energy increased from 4.4 to 4.5 percent in the same period.
| Weight | Month 12 months | Month 12 months | Month 12 months | Month 12 months | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI | 100.0 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 0.5 | 4.0 |
| 1. CPI excluding food and energy | 55.3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 4.4 |
| Excluding transport | 46.1 | 0.5 | 1.5 | 0.1 | 1.5 |
| Goods | 17.4 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Services | 37.9 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 6.1 |
| Transport | 9.1 | 9.1 | 14.1 | 4.0 | 18.1 |
| Education | 8.6 | 2.9 | 3.4 | 0.0 | 3.4 |
| Water supply | 1.4 | 0.0 | 10.3 | 0.0 | 10.3 |
| Other services | 5.0 | 0.2 | 2.4 | 0.3 | 2.5 |
| 2. Food and energy | 44.7 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 0.1 | 3.6 |
| a. Food and beverages | 40.0 | 2.2 | 4.4 | 0.1 | 3.8 |
| b. Fuels and electricity | 4.8 | 8.8 | -0.2 | 0.7 | 0.9 |
| Fuels | 2.1 | 20.1 | 11.8 | 0.4 | 13.5 |
| Vehicle fuels | 1.1 | 30.9 | 23.3 | 2.8 | 28.4 |
| Domestic gas | 0.8 | 12.5 | 3.6 | -2.9 | 1.6 |
| Electricity | 2.6 | -0.4 | -9.7 | 0.9 | -8.9 |
Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26
This deviation from the target range responds mainly to the rise in fuels and their indirect effects on transport costs in March and April. Excluding the transport item, underlying inflation stood at 1.6 percent year-on-year, and has remained below 2 percent since April of last year.
- The transport item is estimated using INEI reports. Source: INEI and BCRP.
Inflation: June 2026 *
(percentage variations)
[Chart: Dispersal Index and Percentage of CPI items with year-on-year price variation greater than 3 percent]
| Jun-25 | Jul-25 | Aug-25 | Sep-25 | Oct-25 | Nov-25 | Dec-25 | Jan-26 | Feb-26 | Mar-26 | Apr-26 | May-26 | Jun-26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | 30 | 30 | 36 | 36 | 35 | 32 | 36 | 35 | 34 | 34 | 33 | 36 | 36 |
| Number of items: | |||||||||||||
| Items with variation greater than 3% | 56 | 57 | 67 | 68 | 65 | 61 | 68 | 66 | 64 | 64 | 62 | 68 | 67 |
| Items with variation less than 3% | 132 | 131 | 121 | 120 | 123 | 127 | 120 | 122 | 124 | 124 | 126 | 120 | 121 |
In June, 36 percent of CPI items recorded rates greater than 3 percent, a level similar to that observed in periods when inflation is within the target range. Source: INEI and BCRP.
Inflation Expectations at 12 and 24 Months of Analysts and the Financial System
(in percentage)
| Survey Conducted On: | 30 Apr. | 29 May. | 30 Jun. |
|---|---|---|---|
| ECONOMIC ANALYSTS 1/ | |||
| 2026 | 3.15 | 3.50 | 3.20 |
| 2027 | 2.50 | 2.60 | 2.50 |
| 2028 | 2.37 | 2.35 | 2.42 |
| FINANCIAL SYSTEM 2/ | |||
| 2026 | 2.80 | 2.95 | 3.10 |
| 2027 | 2.50 | 2.25 | 2.50 |
| 2028 | 2.25 | 2.20 | 2.30 |
| NON-FINANCIAL COMPANIES 3/ | |||
| 2026 | 2.50 | 2.80 | 2.80 |
| 2027 | 2.50 | = | = |
| 2028 | 2.50 | = | = |
| 12 MONTHS 4/ | 2.82 | 2.89 | 2.83 |
Source: BCRP. 12-month inflation expectations decreased from 2.9 percent in May to 2.8 percent in June, remaining within the inflation target range.
Macroeconomic Expectations Survey: Inflation (in percentage)
Note: 12-month inflation expectations are calculated as the simple average of the 12-month expectations of the financial system and economic analysts. For each of them, an estimate of the 12-month expectation is obtained by weighting the expectation for the year by the number of months remaining and the expectations for the following year by the number of months left to complete the 12 months. 1/ 16 analysts in April, 20 in May, and 18 in June 2026. 2/ 14 financial companies in April, 14 in May, and 13 in June 2026. 3/ 278 non-financial companies in April, 278 in May, and 302 in June 2026. 4/ 12-month inflation expectations are calculated as the simple average of the 12-month expectations of the financial system and economic analysts.
Leading Indicators of Economic Activity
[Charts showing year-on-year real variation for: Capital Goods Imports, Internal IGV, Durable Consumer Goods Imports, Internal Cement Consumption]
- June information is preliminary. Source: SUNAT, INEI and BCRP. Leading indicators of economic activity as of June continue to show good performance.
Monetary Aggregates, Credit, and Card Transactions
[Charts showing year-on-year nominal variation for: Currency in Circulation, Total Credit, Total Liquidity, Card Transactions]
- June information is preliminary. ** Constant exchange rate. *** Without gas stations, financial entities, and government. Source: BCRP, Niubiz and Izipay. Monetary aggregates, credit, and card transactions have shown high dynamism.
Business Situation and Expectations
[Chart: Economy vs Sector Optimistic/Pessimistic Range]
| Apr | May | Jun | Correlation with GDP 1/ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CURRENT BUSINESS SITUATION | 56.6 | 56.4 | ~ > 56.6 | ~ > 0.56 |
| SALES LEVEL | 56.4 | 56.2 | ~ > 55.3 | > 0.49 |
| PRODUCTION LEVEL | 57.1 | 57.9 | > 59.8 | > 0.44 |
| DEMAND LEVEL VS EXPECTED | 47.6 | 47.0 | < 48.6 | < 0.68 |
| PURCHASE ORDERS VS PREVIOUS MONTH | 54.6 | 51.5 | > 54.3 | > 0.52 |
| UNWANTED INVENTORY DAYS 2/ | 9.4 | 9.5 | ~ < 11.7 | < -0.36 |
| EXPECTATION OF: | ||||
| THE ECONOMY IN 3 MONTHS | 44.6 | 46.2 | < 55.5 | > 0.63 |
| THE ECONOMY IN 12 MONTHS | 51.2 | 55.9 | > 68.6 | > 0.42 |
| THE SECTOR IN 3 MONTHS | 51.1 | 50.0 | = 56.0 | > 0.67 |
| THE SECTOR IN 12 MONTHS | 56.5 | 58.8 | > 68.4 | > 0.33 |
| YOUR COMPANY'S SITUATION IN 3 MONTHS | 55.1 | 53.8 | > 58.6 | > 0.66 |
| YOUR COMPANY'S SITUATION IN 12 MONTHS | 60.9 | 63.4 | > 70.3 | > 0.66 |
| DEMAND FOR YOUR PRODUCTS IN 3 MONTHS | 55.6 | 56.5 | > 62.0 | > 0.66 |
| DEMAND FOR YOUR PRODUCTS IN 12 MONTHS | 65.5 | 66.3 | > 71.3 | > 0.66 |
| PERSONNEL HIRING IN 3 MONTHS | 52.9 | 53.2 | > 54.6 | > 0.66 |
| PERSONNEL HIRING IN 12 MONTHS | 57.8 | 59.0 | > 63.0 | > 0.58 |
| YOUR COMPANY'S INVESTMENT IN 3 MONTHS 3/ | 55.8 | 57.2 | > 57.5 | > 0.65 |
| YOUR COMPANY'S INVESTMENT IN 12 MONTHS 3/ | 60.5 | 63.7 | > 67.2 | > 0.65 |
| EXPECTED AVERAGE PRICE OF: | ||||
| INPUTS IN 3 MONTHS | 66.7 | 60.7 | > 58.9 | > 0.63 |
| SALES IN 3 MONTHS | 61.8 | 61.2 | > 58.5 | > 0.59 |
: greater than 50 < : less than 50 ~ : Indicates that the monthly difference of each diffusion index is not greater, in absolute value, than 0.2. Arrows up or down indicate that this threshold was exceeded, while the "-" sign implies that the index did not vary. 1/ Correlations found from December 2007 to December 2019 respectively. For current situation indicators, contemporary correlation is shown, and for the rest of expectations, correlation with GDP is presented. 2/ Unwanted inventory days show the difference between the inventory days corresponding to each month minus the desired inventory days according to companies. 3/ Correlation with Private Investment from September 2017 to December 2019, considering optimal lag (t=-3 for 3-month investment and t=-6 for 12-month investment)
In the Central Bank survey, most current situation indicators recorded an improvement compared to the previous month, while expectation indicators showed a significant increase, with all located in the optimistic range. Source: BCRP.
Global Risks and Terms of Trade
[Chart: WTI Spot Price Quotation]
| Jul.26*/ Dec.25 | Jul.26*/ Feb.26 | Jul.26*/ May.26 | Jul.26*/ Jun.26 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WTI (Spot) | 22.7 | 4.5 | -19.4 | 1.4 |
| WTI (Future Dec-26) | 22.5 | 7.6 | -10.9 | 2.0 |
- Quotation as of 8 July. Source: Reuters. Global risks have recently moderated due to the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the relative normalization of supplies in the hydrocarbon market, which has led to a downward correction in international oil prices. However, uncertainty associated with geopolitical tensions remains.
[Chart: Terms of Trade Index and Variation]
In this environment, the outlook for global economic activity growth for this year continues to be positive, and the terms of trade remain favorable for the Peruvian economy. Source: BCRP. * Corresponds to annual average. ** Projection from the June 2026 Inflation Report. Source: BCRP.
El Niño and Inflation Projections
[Chart: Estimated Probability of El Niño Phenomenon Occurrence]
It is projected that both year-on-year inflation and inflation excluding food and energy will return to the target range and be around 2 percent in the projection horizon, as the effects of supply shocks dissipate. However, there is a risk that a more intense El Niño Phenomenon and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may have more persistent effects on inflation.
NOAA Communication 9 July: Conditions of El Niño in the Central Pacific continue and are expected to strengthen until the end of the year, with a 97 percent probability that they will persist until early spring 2027. The probability of a very strong El Niño occurring during the October to December period has increased to 81 percent, which would position it among the largest El Niño events in the historical record dating back to 1950.
[Chart: Estimated Probability of El Niño Phenomenon in Central Pacific - July] Source: NOAA.
Inflation Projection: 2026 - 2027
(variation percentage last twelve months)
- Executed as of June 2026. Source: June 2026 Inflation Report.
The Board remains especially attentive to new information on inflation and its determinants, including the evolution of underlying inflation, inflation expectations, economic activity, and the duration of supply shocks, in order to make adjustments to the monetary policy position if necessary. The Board reaffirms its commitment to taking the necessary actions to guarantee the return of inflation to the target range in the projection horizon.
Monetary Program
July 2026
10 July 2026