Policy Rate Unchanged at 1.75 Percent

Press Release

Inflation in Sweden is low and the economic conjuncture is slightly weaker than normal. At the same time, supply disruptions linked to the war in the Middle East have led to increased inflationary pressure and the risks of inflation becoming too high have increased. The Executive Board assesses that it is well-balanced to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 percent, but the probability of the rate being raised later this year has increased compared to the assessment in March.

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Published

2026-06-17

The global economy is still being affected to a large extent by the war in the Middle East, and most recently by the announced statement of intent between the USA and Iran.[1] The tense situation around the Strait of Hormuz has reduced the supply of, among other things, oil products and pushed up prices for energy and fuels. Inflation in the rest of the world has risen and the cost pressure for Swedish business has increased. The Riksbank bases its forecasts on oil futures prices, which indicate that supply is beginning to normalize in the near future and that the oil price is falling. If this happens, the rise in import prices and the pass-through of higher costs to consumer prices are assessed to be limited. However, uncertainty regarding the forecast remains high. The supply disruptions have now lasted for almost four months and the longer they continue, the greater the risk that the inflationary effects will become, and they can be reinforced by changed pricing behavior.

Inflation in Sweden is still low, largely due to dampening effects of fiscal policy measures. The economic conjuncture is slightly weaker than normal and growth was lower than expected during the first quarter. In addition, there is a tentative recovery in the labor market. Household consumption, however, has continued to increase at a good pace, while purchasing power has strengthened. The supply disruptions due to the war in the Middle East dampen development somewhat, but in the forecast, growth is expected to be higher this year than last year and the economy to strengthen.

The Executive Board has decided to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.75 percent. Underlying inflation is low and the economic conjuncture is slightly weaker than normal, but at the same time, the supply disruptions have led to increased inflationary pressure and the risks of inflation becoming too high have increased. Against this background, the Executive Board has raised the forecast for the policy rate slightly, but assesses that it is well-balanced to leave the policy rate unchanged at present. The forecast implies that the probability of the rate being raised later this year has increased compared to the assessment in March.

Uncertainty is significant and the development calls for vigilance. In addition to the war in the Middle East, there are several other risks that can affect inflation and economic prospects. It cannot be ruled out that the effects of the war interact with other more fundamental vulnerabilities in the global economy, such as high stock valuations and unsustainable high public debt. The range of possible outcomes for what may happen in the future is large and the Riksbank has high readiness to adjust monetary policy.

Forecast for Swedish inflation, GDP, unemployment and policy rate*

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029 Q2**

CPI

0.7 (0.7)

0.6 (0.8)

2.7 (2.0)

3.4 (3.5)

2.4

CPIF

2.6 (2.6)

1.1 (1.5)

1.7 (1.3)

2.8 (2.7)

2.0

GDP

1.5 (1.5)

2.2 (2.5)

2.3 (2.6)

1.4 (1.3)

1.5

Unemployment, percent

8.8 (8.8)

8.6 (8.4)

8.2 (8.0)

7.8 (7.6)

7.6

Policy rate, percent

2.1 (2.1)

1.8 (1.8)

1.9 (1.9)

2.1 (2.1)

2.2

• Annual percentage change, annual or quarterly average Note: Assessment in the monetary policy report in March 2026 in parentheses. ** Quarter 2 2029 refers to calendar-adjusted GDP growth and seasonally adjusted AKU unemployment. Sources: SCB and the Riksbank

Forecast for the policy rate*

2026 Q3

2026 Q4

2027 Q1

2027 Q2

2028 Q2

2029 Q2

Policy rate

1.76 (1.75)

1.82 (1.77)

1.89 (1.81)

1.93 (1.85)

2.07 (2.03)

2.20

• Percent, quarterly averages Note: Assessment in the monetary policy report in March 2026 in parentheses. Source: Riksbank

The decision on the policy rate applies from June 24, 2026. The minutes from the Executive Board's monetary policy meeting will be published on June 24, 2026. A press conference with Riksbank Governor Erik Thedéen and Åsa Olli Segendorf, Head of the Department for Monetary Policy, will be held today at 11:00 at the Riksbank. Press credentials or equivalent are required to attend. Mandatory advance registration to Press Secretary Susanne Meyer, susanne.meyer@riksbank.se by 10:00 on June 17, 2026. The press conference will be broadcast live on riksbank.se.

[1] The Riksbank's forecasts and reasoning in the monetary policy report are based on the information available on June 11. The subsequent developments in the Middle East, and especially the announced statement of intent, have therefore not been taken into account in the forecasts and reasoning in the report. The development is still surrounded by great uncertainty and the Executive Board assesses that the report still constitutes a good basis for monetary policy.

Documents

Press Release June 17, 2026: Policy Rate Unchanged at 1.75 Percent

(pdf | 189.2 kB)

Monetary Policy Report, June 2026

(pdf | 4.3 MB)

Monetary Policy Decision, June 2026: Decision on Policy Rate

(pdf | 205.7 kB)

Data: Monetary Policy Report, June 2026

(xlsx | 567.3 kB)

Results and Forecasts, June 2026

(xlsx | 1.4 MB)

Related Content

Collection Page: Monetary Policy Decision June 2026

Staff memo: The Effects of Oil Price Shocks on the Swedish Economy

(pdf | 2.4 MB)

Contact: Press Service 08-787 02 00

Updated 2026-06-17