2026-07-17
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The Central Reserve Bank of Peru reports that the annual fiscal deficit decreased from 1.6 to 1.3 percent of GDP between May and June 2026, driven by a rise in current revenues to 19.4 percent of GDP and a reduction in non-financial expenditures to 19.5 percent of GDP. In June 2026, the non-financial public sector recorded a surplus of S/ 98 million, contrasting with the S/ 3.3 billion deficit in June 2025, due to a 23.0 percent growth in current revenues offset by a 2.4 percent increase in expenditures. For the first half of 2026, the fiscal surplus amounted to S/ 10.1 billion, resulting from a 16.0 percent increase in revenues and an 8.7 percent increase in expenditures.
BCRP STUDY NOTE No. 50 – July 17, 2026 1 NON-FINANCIAL PUBLIC SECTOR OPERATIONS: JUNE 20261
Between May and June 2026, according to preliminary information, the annual fiscal deficit decreased from 1.6 to 1.3 percent of GDP. This result is explained both by the increase in current general government revenues, from 19.2 to 19.4 percent of GDP, particularly tax revenues, and by the reduction in non-financial expenditures, from 19.7 to 19.5 percent of GDP, particularly capital expenditures. In June 2026, the non-financial public sector would record a surplus of S/ 98 million, which contrasts with the fiscal deficit of S/ 3.3 billion recorded in June 2025. This result is mainly explained by the 23.0 percent growth in current general government revenues, particularly tax revenues by 33.1 percent, which was partially offset by the 2.4 percent increase in non-financial general government expenditures, particularly current expenditures, as capital expenditures decreased. I. ANNUAL ECONOMIC RESULT OF THE NON-FINANCIAL PUBLIC SECTOR: AS OF JUNE 2026
BCRP STUDY NOTE No. 50 – July 17, 2026 2 The growth in current revenues is explained by the higher level of economic activity and favorable export mineral prices, as well as by higher income tax advance payment coefficients, determined in the March-April 2026 regularization campaign, and lower balances in favor of taxpayers, in addition to control and inspection actions by the tax authority. The reduction in non-financial expenditure as a percentage of GDP is explained by the capital expenditure component, mainly in the national government's other capital expenditures item, and, to a lesser extent, in the gross capital formation item of this level of government. Table No. 1 BCRPData/NESPF202606C1 Compared to December 2025, the annual fiscal deficit decreased from 2.2 to 1.3 percent of GDP, both due to the increase in current revenues by 0.4 percentage points (p.p.) of GDP, mainly tax revenues, and due to the reduction in non-financial expenditures by 0.4 p.p. of GDP, particularly capital expenditures. The dynamism of tax revenues is explained by the aforementioned factors, highlighting the higher collection from income tax on non-domiciled legal entities, domestic VAT, and the Special Mining Tax (IEM), while among non-tax revenues, the higher level of income from mining royalties and profit transfers to the national government by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru-BCRP (S/ 938 million in June 2025 vs S/ 1,648 million in April 2026) and the National Fund for the Financing of State Business Activity-FONAFE (S/ 56 million in May 2025 vs S/ 640 million in April-May 2026) stood out. NON-FINANCIAL PUBLIC SECTOR OPERATIONS ACCUMULATED LAST 12 MONTHS 1/ Millions of soles Percentage of GDP 2024 2025 2026 2024 2025 2026 As of Dec. As of Dec. As of May. As of Jun. As of Dec. As of Dec. As of May. As of Jun.
BCRP STUDY NOTE No. 50 – July 17, 2026 3 the Financing of State Business Activity-FONAFE (S/ 56 million in May 2025 vs S/ 640 million in April-May 2026). The fall in non-financial expenditures as a percentage of GDP was due to the national government's capital expenditure component, in the gross capital formation and other capital expenditures items by 0.3 and 0.1 p.p. of GDP, respectively. Non-financial expenditure, however, continues to expand, although in the second quarter of 2026 the growth rate moderated compared to the first quarter. II. ECONOMIC RESULT OF THE NON-FINANCIAL PUBLIC SECTOR: JUNE 2026 2. In June 2026, the non-financial public sector would record a surplus of S/ 98 million, which contrasts with the fiscal deficit of S/ 3.3 billion recorded in June 2025. This result is mainly explained by the 23.0 percent growth in current general government revenues, particularly tax revenues by 33.1 percent, among which stand out income tax on domiciled legal entities; regularization; VAT, both domestic and on imports; Selective Consumption Tax (ISC) applied to products other than fuels; Special Mining Tax (IEM); fines and transfer of detractions. This was partially offset by the 2.4 percent increase in non-financial general government expenditures, reflecting a higher level of current expenditures by 9.5 percent, mainly due to remunerations and transfers, which was mitigated by a 14.2 percent fall in capital expenditures, mainly other capital expenditures. Table No. 2 BCRPData/NESPF202606C2 NON-FINANCIAL PUBLIC SECTOR OPERATIONS 1/ (Millions of soles) MAY JUNE FIRST HALF 2026 2024 2025 2026 Var. % 2024 2025 2026 Var. % 26/25 26/25
BCRP STUDY NOTE No. 50 – July 17, 2026 4 3. In the first half of 2026, the fiscal surplus would amount to S/ 10.1 billion, an amount greater than that recorded in the same period of 2025 (S/ 995 million). This result is explained by the 16.0 percent increase in current general government revenues, both tax (16.6 percent) and non-tax (13.8 percent). This was mitigated by the 8.7 percent increase in non-financial general government expenditures across all three levels of government, particularly current expenditures (13.1 percent), whose items recorded double-digit growth rates. To a lesser extent, the higher debt interest service contributed by 2.7 percent, particularly domestic debt (6.9 percent). II.1 GENERAL GOVERNMENT REVENUES 4. In June 2026, current general government revenues (S/ 21.0 billion) grew by 23.0 percent year-on-year, due to a 33.1 percent increase in tax revenues, particularly from the national government (33.7 percent), while non-tax revenues decreased by 5.4 percent. Chart No. 2 BCRPData/NESPF202606G2 14 341 17 086 21 010 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 Jun 24 Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov