2026-07-30
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This document reports that Peru's GDP grew 1.8% year-on-year in May 2026, driven by a 5.0% expansion in non-primary sectors, primarily commerce, services, and construction. Conversely, the primary GDP contracted 7.8% due to a 73.1% drop in fishing output caused by the suspension of the anchovy fishing season and lower catches. Formal employment increased 4.2% in May, while average formal real income decreased 1.2% for the month, though it accumulated a 2.0% growth for the January-May period.
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 52 – July 30, 2026 1 ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: MAY 2026 SUMMARY Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 1.8 percent year-on-year in May and 3.2 percent in the January-May period. In the month, primary GDP contracted 7.8 percent due to the decline in the fishing sector and its manufacturing, caused by lower anchovy catches; as a consequence of the suspension of the first fishing season. Non-primary GDP expanded 5.0 percent, explained by the boost from the commerce sector, followed by the services and construction sectors. In May, formal employment increased 4.2 percent, accumulating a growth of 4.3 percent in the January-May period. During the month, employment in the private sector increased 5.4 percent, mainly due to higher employment in the services, commerce, and agricultural sectors. In May, average formal income decreased 1.2 percent in real terms, accumulating a growth of 2.0 percent in the January-May period and 2.1 percent compared to the same period in 2019. Total wage mass increased 2.9 percent year-on-year in real terms in the month and 6.4 percent in the January-May period.
ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: MAY 2026 INDEX Page I. Sectoral GDP....................................................................................................2 Agricultural Sector (weight of 6.2 percent)......................................................3 Fishing Sector (weight of 0.4 percent)...................................................................4 Mining and Hydrocarbons Sector (weight of 12.1 percent)..................................6 Electricity, Water, and Gas Sector (weight of 1.9 percent) ...................................9 Manufacturing Sector (weight of 11.7 percent)......................................................9 Construction Sector (weight of 6.4 percent)....................................................12 Commerce (weight of 10.8 percent) and Services (weight of 50.5 percent) Sectors.......................................................................................................................12 Box 1: Methodological note on the calculation of El Niño impacts on GDP . 13 II. Labor Market...........................................................................................15 Formal Employment – Electronic Payroll ...................................................................15 Job Postings.............................................................................................20
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 52 – July 30, 2026 2 ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: MAY 2026 I. Sectoral GDP
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 52 – July 30, 2026 3 Productive Sectors Agricultural Sector (weight of 6.2 percent) 4. The agricultural sector grew 0.1 percent in May. Higher agricultural and livestock production oriented towards both the domestic market (rice and poultry meat) and agroindustry (sugarcane) was observed; but lower agro-export production (olives, cocoa, avocado, and coffee). Table 2 BCRPData/NEPBI202605C2 5. Agricultural production oriented to the domestic market grew 7.0 percent in May due to higher rice production, due to a base effect in the same month of the previous year, when production was low due to a lack of rain on the north coast. This was partially offset by lower onion production in Arequipa due to orientation towards other crops such as I Trim. Apr. May. Jan-May. AGRICULTURAL 64.1 1.3 -3.3 -0.6 -0.4 Domestic Market 33.0 -0.2 -0.5 7.0 2.2 Potato 7.0 12.1 -7.2 -1.0 0.9 Rice with Husk 6.4 -7.6 39.2 60.7 26.0 Onion 0.8 3.8 -1.1 -38.2 -8.1 Plantain 1.7 -1.8 0.1 0.4 -1.0 Lime 0.3 9.9 8.1 0.0 7.5 Others 10.6 -3.8 -5.8 -9.0 -6.0 Of which forages: Fodder Oats 1.1 -8.1 -16.7 -13.0 -16.5 Fodder Barley 0.1 -4.3 -37.3 -52.8 -35.9 Agroindustrial 4.5 24.2 15.5 20.4 22.0 Hard Yellow Corn 1.9 17.7 10.4 3.1 14.1 Sugarcane 1.4 18.0 39.1 42.5 25.7 Agro-export 26.7 -1.4 -11.9 -19.8 -8.5 Coffee 4.0 -14.3 -12.2 -2.3 -7.8 Grape 3.4 -4.7 -9.6 16.5 -4.6 Avocado 3.2 10.7 4.8 -4.0 3.8 Mango 0.7 -19.0 -30.3 -63.3 -20.1 Cocoa 1.9 -14.0 -11.6 -11.3 -12.5 Blueberry 8.1 23.8 0.0 40.3 23.5 Olive 1.4 -50.3 -77.6 -96.4 -86.0 LIVESTOCK 35.9 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.9 Poultry 19.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.1 TOTAL 100.0 1.5 -1.6 0.1 0.4 1/ At 2007 prices. Source: INEI, and MIDAGRI. AGRICULTURAL SECTOR (Year-on-year percentage change) Wt. 2026 2025
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 52 – July 30, 2026 4 potato and garlic, and lower production of Andean products (corn, barley, pea, fava bean, and forages) due to delays in rains corresponding to the current campaign. 6. Agroindustrial production increased 20.4 percent due to higher sugarcane production, due to fewer days of technical stoppages in the mills of La Libertad, Lambayeque, and Áncash. 7. Production oriented to export decreased 19.8 percent due to a base effect of overproduction in the same month of the previous year of olives and mango; lower coffee and cocoa harvests, due to sanitary impact of intense rains and warm conditions at the beginning of the year; and lower avocado production due to lack of rain corresponding to the current campaign. This result was offset by growth in blueberry production (from Ica, La Libertad, and Lima) due to higher yields. 8. Poultry meat production grew 2.2 percent, with a higher placement of BB chickens. 9. The stored water volume is high in the main reservoirs in the country, as of July 8, 2026. In the north, the stored volume in reservoirs is close to 100 percent, except in Tinajones (53.5 percent); and in the south, the stored volume in reservoirs is above 71 percent. Chart 1 BCRPData/NEPBI202605G1 Fishing Sector (weight of 0.4 percent) 10. In May, fishing production registered a reduction of 73.1 percent. This result was mainly due to lower anchovy catches in the north-central region and, to a lesser extent, lower trout availability, which affected continental fishing. The monthly drop was partially compensated by the growth of species destined for direct human consumption.
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 52 – July 30, 2026 5 Table 3 BCRPData/NEPBI202605C3 11. Maritime fishing for human consumption grew 4.5 percent year-on-year in May, mainly due to higher catches of bonito, shark, corvina, and cojinova. The result was partially compensated by lower catches of squid and scallop. Continental fishing had a reduction of 24.7 percent due to lower trout availability. 12. On April 9, the Ministry of Production authorized the start of the first anchovy fishing season in the north-central zone, with a quota of 1.9 million metric tons (MT). This quota reflects a lower biomass that has been observed since late 2025. In April, total catches totaled 0.4 million MT; in May, about 0.03 million MT were caught; and in June, no resource would have been caught. With this, there would be an advance of 24.6 percent of the quota. The Ministry of Production ordered the temporary suspension of extractive activities of the anchovy resource from April 24 to May 3, as part of actions aimed at preserving biomass and ensuring the sustainability of the first season. Subsequently, it suspended catches again from May 8 to 13, with extensions that prolonged the measure until June 10. Finally, in its last resolution of June 10, it ordered the indefinite suspension of the season1. 13. According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center, the sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 1+2 zone was 1.81°C in May, 2.82°C in June, and 3.47°C by July 15. 14. The Multisectoral Commission of ENFEN2 maintains the "Coastal El Niño Alert" status. For the Niño 1+2 region, the Coastal El Niño would extend until April 2027. It is more likely that the event will continue with a strong magnitude, without ruling out that it reaches extraordinary magnitude towards the end of 2026. 1 RM-N.° 00162-2026-PRODUCE. 2 ENFEN Communication N° 13-2026 of July 17 I Trim. Apr. May. Jan.-May. MARITIME FISHING 90.7 -5.5 3.5 -75.6 -30.8 Human consumption 45.8 11.9 6.6 4.5 9.5 Canned 2.2 -29.8 49.7 8.6 -16.2 Fresh 20.8 11.8 -7.4 18.0 8.6 Frozen 22.4 18.9 21.6 -6.0 14.2 Dried salted 0.5 -27.9 -11.8 -11.4 -22.0 Industrial consumption 44.9 -41.2 0.9 -97.6 -64.8 Anchovy 363 444 32 839 CONTINENTAL FISHING 9.3 -34.1 -16.7 -24.7 -28.9 FISHING SECTOR 100.0 -9.1 1.7 -73.1 -30.6 1/ At 2007 prices. Source: Ministry of Production – OGEIEE. Wt. 2025 1/ 2026 FISHING SECTOR (Year-on-year percentage change)
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 52 – July 30, 2026 6 It is expected that anchovy will continue to retreat towards the coast and be located at a depth greater than normal, which will require greater expenditure of its energy reserves. It is expected that the entry of tropical water species, such as sawfish, ayamarca, samasa, as well as oceanic species such as mackerel, yellowfin tuna, dolphinfish, billfish, and sharks will continue. 15. In June, the Paita, Chicama, and Chimbote stations increased the positive anomaly observed in the previous month. With information as of July 20, a slight moderation in Paita's anomalies is observed. Table 4 Anomalies in sea temperature by port
BCRPData/NEPBI202605C4 Mining and Hydrocarbons Sector (weight of 12.1 percent) 16. The mining and hydrocarbons sector grew 2.6 percent year-on-year in May. In the month, the result reflected higher production of copper, gold, iron, tin, natural gas liquids, and natural gas. Part of the growth was partially compensated by lower production of zinc, silver, molybdenum, and oil. Dec.25. -0.9 0.2 -0.5 0.0 0.7 1.4 Jan.26. 0.2 0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 1.3 Feb.26. 2.9 2.3 -0.2 -1.2 -1.1 0.5 Mar.26. 1.0 2.1 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 Apr.26. 0.6 1.4 0.8 1.0 1.4 1.8 May.26. 2.9 3.0 2.4 3.5 3.2 1.6 Jun.26. 5.8 4.8 3.5 3.9 4.5 2.1 Jul.26**. 4.1 4.9 3.9 3.8 5.3 2.8 I Sem. 3.9 4.8 3.9 3.8 5.1 2.9 II Sem. 4.1 4.7 3.7 3.7 5.4 2.5 III Sem. 4.3 5.2 4.2 3.8 5.5 2.9 **As of July 20. Source: Imarpe Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies with respect to the 1981-2010 climatology, with the exception of the ports of Huacho (1989-2010) and Pisco (1982-2010). Pisco Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (In degrees Celsius) Paita Chicama Chimbote Huacho Callao
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 52 – July 30, 2026 7 Table 5 BCRPData/NEPBI202605C5 17. In May, copper production increased 2.6 percent year-on-year due to a base effect. The higher production of Antamina responds to a base effect since during the first week of May 2025 the company had suspended operations due to a labor accident that occurred at the end of April. The month's growth was partially compensated by lower processing at Toquepala (Southern), Las Bambas, and lower grades at Marcobre. Metallic Mining 87.4 1.2 -0.3 2.5 1.2 Copper 49.3 3.1 4.3 2.6 3.2 Gold 10.2 1.3 4.4 6.7 2.8 Zinc 10.0 2.0 -20.2 -13.6 -6.5 Molybdenum 7.7 -9.2 -1.1 -0.4 -6.2 Silver 5.1 2.3 -3.8 -11.3 -1.9 Iron 2.8 1.9 2.1 181.1 17.7 Lead 1.9 -4.0 -17.8 -11.1 -8.6 Tin 0.4 -0.8 12.6 15.0 5.2 Hydrocarbons 12.6 -15.4 -24.7 3.2 -13.5 Oil 3.7 -20.2 -33.1 -17.5 -22.5 NGL 5.3 -15.3 -14.5 10.4 -10.1 Natural Gas 3.6 -10.3 -28.8 14.5 -8.3 Total 100.0 -0.9 -3.2 2.6 -0.7 1/ At 2007 prices. Source: INEI, Ministry of Energy and Mines, Perupetro Wt. 2025 1/ I Trim. Apr. May. Mining and Hydrocarbons (Year-on-year percentage change) Product 2026 Jan.-May.
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 52 – July 30, 2026 8 Table 6 BCRPData/NEPBI202605C6 18. Gold production increased 6.7 percent year-on-year in May. The increase responded to higher production from Buenaventura, Antapaccay, Sotrami, and Crespo, due to the start of their operations. Part of the growth was compensated by lower extraction from Minero Horizonte Consortium and Yanacocha. Table 7 BCRPData/NEPBI202605C7 2025 2026 Var. % 26/25 2025 2026 Var. % 26/25 Total 212 218 2.6 1 068 1 102 3.2 Antamina Mining Company 23 39 70.1 141 219 55.2 Cerro Verde Mining Society 27 28 5.8 152 150 -1.4 Las Bambas - M.M.G 38 36 -5.1 173 175 1.2 Southern Peru Copper Corporation 34 30 -10.4 166 149 -10.1 Toromocho - Chinalco 21 20 -4.1 100 94 -6.8 Antapaccay 9 8 -9.0 37 37 0.3 Constancia - Hudbay 8 6 -21.6 36 34 -5.1 El Brocal Mining Society 4 4 0.9 21 20 -5.5 Mina Justa - Marcobre 9 6 -34.5 43 26 -38.6 Quellaveco - Anglo American 26 25 -4.5 129 123 -4.0 Rest 14 15 6.0 71 75 6.2 Source: INEI, Ministry of Energy and Mines Mining units May January-May Copper Production (Thousand metric tons of fine concentrates by flotation) 2025 2026 Var. % 26/25 2025 2026 Var. % 26/25 Total 304 325 6.7 1 750 1 800 2.8 Minera Yanacocha 44 42 -4.8 188 229 21.8 Minera Boroo Misquichilca 14 14 -0.8 69 61 -10.9 Compañía Minera Poderosa 23 22 -3.8 117 106 -9.4 Minero Horizonte Consortium 16 10 -37.0 79 41 -48.5 Buenaventura 12 14 22.2 59 78 32.4 Pan American 12 7 -39.9 51 42 -18.9 Hochschild 11 9 -14.3 59 52 -12.6 Antapaccay 3 3 36.0 9 13 38.6 Constancia - Hudbay 2 1 -38.3 12 12 2.0 Minera Laytaruma 6 6 -5.6 29 27 -7.9 Gold Fields La Cima 9 6 -41.1 49 28 -42.1 Minera Aurífera Retamas 15 14 -3.5 72 66 -7.9 Paltarumi 9 9 4.4 51 53 2.9 Las Bambas - M.M.G 7 6 -18.6 36 38 5.4 Sotrami 4 5 45.7 19 24 26.6 Crespo 0 4 n.a. 0 8 n.a. Artisanal 1 1 -3.4 7 7 -4.9 Of which: Madre De Dios 0 0 -3.6 2 2 -5.8 Puno 0 0 1.9 2 2 -1.5 Arequipa 0 0 -9.0 2 2 -8.1 Piura 0 0 -0.6 1 1 -2.4 Others* 117 150 28.1 844 916 8.6 Source: INEI, Ministry of Energy and Mines *Includes estimated informal gold production by INEI. Mining units January-May Gold Production (Thousand fine Troy ounces) May
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 52 – July 30, 2026 9 19. In May, zinc production decreased 13.6 percent, mainly due to lower grades at Antamina and lower extraction at Volcan. Silver and lead production decreased 11.3 and 11.1 percent, respectively. In both cases, the lower contribution from Antamina, Volcan, and Nexa stands out. Likewise, molybdenum production decreased 0.4 percent due to lower processing at Chinalco and Southern. 20. Iron production increased by 181.1 percent due to a base effect given the work stoppage at Shougang due to an accident involving its only ship loader in May of last year. On the other hand, tin production grew 15.0 percent by Minsur. 21. Hydrocarbon production grew 3.2 percent year-on-year in May. Production of natural gas liquids (10.4 percent) and natural gas (14.5 percent) increased mainly due to a base effect since in May 2025 maintenance was carried out at the Malvinas Plant which affected the extraction of lots 56 and 88. The subsector's growth was partially compensated by lower oil production (-17.5 percent), due to lower yield at lot 95, and by the end of the contract for lots II, VI, and XV. Electricity, Water, and Gas Sector (weight of 1.9 percent) 22. In May, the electricity, water, and gas sector production increased 5.2 percent year-on-year. Electricity production, including self-producers, increased 5.8 percent in May. Table 8 BCRPData/NEPBI202605C8 According to the Economic Operation Committee of the National Interconnected System (COES), total electricity production registered in the National Interconnected Electric System (SEIN) was 5.5 percent higher compared to May 2025. Manufacturing Sector (weight of 11.7 percent) 23. According to the Ministry of Production, the manufacturing sector fell 10.7 percent in May. Primary manufacturing decreased 35.2 percent, mainly due to lower production of fishmeal and fish oil, and lower refining of non-ferrous metals after the partial stoppage of Cajamarquilla production following the fire that occurred on May 13. I Trim. Apr. May. Jan.-May. Electricity 80.5 3.5 5.2 5.8 4.3 Gas 0.6 -12.9 1.4 -2.4 -7.9 Water 18.9 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.4 SECTOR 100.0 3.0 4.7 5.2 3.8 Source: INEI Wt. 2025 2026 ELECTRICITY, GAS, AND WATER SECTOR (Year-on-year percentage change)
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 52 – July 30, 2026 10 partial stoppage of Cajamarquilla production following the fire that occurred on May 13. Table 9 Source: Ministry of Production and INEI BCRPData/NEPBI202605C9 24. Non-primary manufacturing increased 3.5 percent year-on-year due to higher production of inputs, goods oriented to investment, and mass consumption goods. The month's increase would be explained mainly by the branches of processed wood, plastic, paints, and alcoholic beverages. In seasonally adjusted terms, non-primary manufacturing increased 4.2 percent, after the increase registered in April (1.6 percent). I Trim. Apr. May. Jan.-May. PRIMARY RESOURCE PROCESSORS 100.0 3.1 5.7 -35.2 -7.3 Milled rice 4.8 -7.6 39.2 60.7 26.0 Sugar 3.3 4.3 0.0 24.3 7.1 Meat products 14.3 1.8 3.2 2.0 2.1 Fishmeal and fish oil 14.3 -39.4 0.8 -97.7 -64.7 Canned and frozen fish products 9.3 7.4 10.6 -24.6 -0.7 Non-ferrous metal refining 39.6 13.9 4.9 -11.0 6.4 Petroleum refining 14.0 2.2 1.6 6.9 2.9 Wt. 2025 Manufacturing Sector (Year-on-year percentage change) 2026
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 52 – July 30, 2026 11 Table 10 BCRPData/NEPBI202605C10 I Trim. Apr. May. Jan.-May. NON-PRIMARY MANUFACTURING 100.0 1.3 0.8 3.5 1.6 Mass consumption 40.5 3.9 -3.7 0.3 1.6 Dairy products 2.5 3.5 11.6 8.8 6.2 Bakery 4.5 5.5 -5.4 -2.7 1.6 Noodles 0.7 -8.0 16.6 -2.8 -2.6 Oils and fats 2.3 -1.0 17.7 3.1 3.0 Cocoa, chocolate and confectionery products 0.8 0.5 -39.0 -4.7 -13.1 Various food products 2.1 2.9 4.8 -1.7 2.2 Alcoholic beverages 1.3 10.3 30.8 55.7 21.7 Beer and malt 2.6 12.8 -6.4 3.0 6.9 Soft drinks and table water 2.1 4.7 10.7 8.7 6.5 Footwear 0.7 6.6 -4.0 15.0 6.1 Furniture 7.9 18.4 -15.4 -5.9 6.1 Other paper and cardboard articles 1.6 6.9 6.5 5.1 6.4 Pharmaceutical products and medicines 2.3 -18.3 0.8 1.5 -11.3 Toiletries and cleaning products 4.2 0.6 1.5 2.3 1.1 Diverse Manufactures 2.4 -3.7 -9.2 -3.1 -5.0 Inputs 20.1 1.7 8.6 6.2 4.0 Wheat flour 2.1 -3.4 10.2 -16.4 -4.0 Animal feed 1.1 -12.3 -12.5 3.4 -9.0 Ropes, cords, twines and nets 0.3 -8.3 8.6 -17.4 -7.2 Leather 0.0 -7.3 1.9 7.9 -2.5 Other textile products 0.8 -5.9 -11.9 -9.9 -7.9 Processed wood 1.9 10.8 7.1 56.0 18.9 Paper and cardboard 0.2 17.5 2.2 -21.9 4.0 Paper and cardboard packaging 1.7 -3.0 3.1 4.2 -0.4 Printing activities 1.6 10.9 13.9 -8.6 7.4 Basic chemical substances 1.3 0.7 7.6 8.2 3.5 Explosives, natural and chemical essences 1.9 -1.8 -0.7 11.2 1.3 Rubber 0.5 -12.0 -4.6 -7.8 -9.7 Plastics 5.7 6.7 19.8 11.7 10.2 Pesticides, compound fertilizers and primary plastics 0.5 14.3 3.7 6.9 10.7 Glass and glass products 0.4 -11.5 42.0 3.0 0.7 Oriented to investment 27.8 2.0 4.0 8.2 3.8 Paints, varnishes and lacquers 1.9 0.0 68.3 75.2 29.2 Cement 5.5 16.4 12.6 10.7 14.4 Construction materials 2.8 -5.3 -8.7 5.3 -3.9 Various non-metallic mineral products 0.1 -6.4 -1.4 -13.0 -6.9 Iron and steel industry 3.5 1.2 14.9 7.2 5.1 Metal products 5.9 -11.2 -7.1 10.9 -6.2 Machinery and equipment 0.6 41.2 58.3 21.3 39.8 Electrical machinery 1.1 -13.9 -3.6 -11.7 -11.5 Transport material 2.0 39.7 28.7 34.0 35.9 Industrial services 4.3 -3.2 -38.0 -35.8 -21.2 Oriented to external market 11.7 -9.7 -4.8 -10.4 -8.9 Food preserves 2.2 -15.3 3.7 -5.1 -10.2 Yarns, fabrics and finishes 3.3 -8.2 -4.2 -3.1 -6.4 Knitted fabrics and articles 3.2 -5.4 0.4 -14.2 -6.2 Clothing 2.7 -12.3 -17.7 -20.1 -14.9 Artificial fibers 0.3 -2.3 7.7 11.1 2.8 Source: INEI and PRODUCE. At 2007 prices. Wt. 2025 Manufacturing Sector (Year-on-year percentage change) 2026
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 52 – July 30, 2026 12 Construction Sector (weight of 6.4 percent) 25. In May, the construction sector grew 4.7 percent, due to higher private works. In seasonally adjusted terms, the sector decreased 3.9 percent compared to the previous month. Between January and May, the sector accumulated a growth of 11.4 percent. 26. Domestic cement consumption increased 8.0 percent in May due to higher shipments from Pacasmayo (13.8 percent), in the north of the country, and from Yura (12.4 percent), in the south; while Unacem shipments increased 1.8 percent. 27. Public works progress decreased 4.7 percent due to lower national government investment (-29.8 percent), although it was partially offset by the increase in local (3.9 percent) and regional (15.2 percent) governments. By type of works, investment in risk prevention works, such as protection on river and ravine slopes, decreased.
Table 11 BCRPData/NEPBI202605C11 Commerce (weight of 10.8 percent) and Services (weight of 50.5 percent) Sectors 28. In May, the commerce sector grew 6.9 percent year-on-year, but decreased 0.1 percent monthly in seasonally adjusted terms. The increase was registered in its three subsectors (wholesale, retail, and sale and repair of