2026-08-21
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The document reports that Peru's GDP grew 2.6% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, driven by private consumption and investment, while public investment contracted. Terms of trade increased 15.8% due to higher export prices for copper and gold, leading to a current account surplus of 2.7% of GDP. The fiscal deficit of the Non-Financial Public Sector narrowed from 2.6% to 1.3% of GDP, and private credit growth reached 8.7% year-on-year despite a slight decrease in the credit-to-GDP ratio.
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 1 MACROECONOMIC REPORT: SECOND QUARTER OF 20261 SUMMARY Economic activity grew 2.6 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026. This growth was supported by the continuous advance of private spending, in a context of dynamism and solidity of the labor market, favorable credit conditions, high terms of trade, and business expectations in the optimistic range. Among the components, private investment stood out, mainly due to the rebound in the non-mining component. Ho-wever, the GDP expansion rate was lower than that of the previous quarter, due to the decline in public investment by the National Government and a negative contribution from the change in inventories. Terms of trade increased 15.8 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, driven by the 30.9 percent increase in export prices, led by traditional mining products, particularly copper and gold. This rebound is associated with a global context of consolidation of structural demand linked to electrification, renewable energies, and data centers, specific supply constraints in the production and smelting of industrial metals, and the continuity of geopolitical and commercial uncertainty that sustained demand for safe-haven assets. This dynamic was partially offset by the 13.0 percent increase in import prices, associated mainly with the higher cost of oil and its derivatives and industrial inputs, in a context of persistent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The current account surplus reached 2.7 percent of GDP in the second quarter of 2026 (year-on-year increase of 0.9 p.p.) and a cumulative result in the last four quarters of 4.5 percent. The year-on-year expansion was explained mainly by the widening of the trade surplus, in line with the rising trend of terms of trade and the advance of shipped volumes of gold and copper. On the other hand, the financial account recorded a net capital inflow of USD 2,487 million in the quarter (2.6 percent of GDP), lower than that observed a year ago (USD 3,460 million or 4.3 percent of GDP), due to lower net external borrowing by the public sector, in response to the absence of issuances and a lower pace of bond purchases by non-residents. The increase in net external financing of short and long term received by the private sector partially counteracted this trend. The accumulated fiscal deficit in the last twelve months of the Non-Financial Public Sector was reduced from 2.6 to 1.3 percent of GDP between the second quarter of 2025 and the second quarter of 2026. This reduction was explained mainly by the reduction of non-financial spending as a percentage of GDP, mainly due to the lower share of capital spending. Meanwhile, current revenues of the General Government increased, associated with the greater dynamism of economic activity and the favorable evolution of export prices. The liquidity ratio to GDP rose from 43 to 45 percent between the second quarter of 2025 and 2026; in nominal terms, this result responded to the sustained growth of liquidity, driven by the general increase in its components, especially in currency in circulation and demand and savings deposits. The credit ratio to GDP 1 Report prepared by Joseph Amaya, Diego Mamani, Catyry Ramos, Carmen Rojas, Janice Mamani and Bruno Gonzaga from the Current Analysis Department; and by Marina Beteta, Oscar Carrión, Guillermo Chumpitaz, Gabriel Gálvez, Jonathan Luna, Rosaura Venegas and María del Rosario Bernedo from the Balance of Payments Statistics Department.
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 2 decreased from 36 to 35 percent, despite credit registering a year-on-year growth of 8.7 percent. This reduction is explained by the greater expansion of nominal GDP, associated, in part, to the improvement of terms of trade. The nominal expansion of credit was due to the consumption segment and the corporate sector. BCRPData/NEMAC202606C0 II Q III Q IV Q Year I Q II Q YoY real % change
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 3 I. ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: GDP grew 2.6 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026.
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 4 Chart 1 Source: BCRP. BCRPData/NEMAC202606G1 The GDP of the second quarter of 2026, in seasonally adjusted terms, decreased 0.1 percent compared to the previous period, as did domestic demand. In this way, economic activity in the first quarter was 11.9 percent above the pre-pandemic level. Chart 2 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED INDICES, BASE 100 = 4Q19 GDP Domestic Demand Source: BCRP. BCRPData/NEMAC202606G2 Domestic Demand 2. Domestic demand grew 5.2 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, which represented a moderation compared to the 6.7 percent observed in the previous quarter. However, domestic demand excluding the effect of inventories accelerated its growth from 5.7 to 6.0 percent between the first and the second quarter. The expansion of the quarter was due to the growth of private spending (5.9 percent), particularly private investment (17.6 percent). It also contributed, albeit to a lesser extent, the increase in public consumption (4.1 percent). On the other hand, in the quarter, a negative contribution from inventories to product growth was observed (-1.0 percentage points). Table 1 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT BY TYPE OF SPENDING 1/ (Year-on-year real percentage change) 1/ At 2007 prices. 2/ Contribution. 3/ Includes investment of the General Government (National Government and Subnational Governments) and non-financial public companies. Source: BCRP. BCRPData/NEMAC202606C1 3. Private consumption in the second quarter increased 3.7 percent year-on-year, a rate slightly higher than the 3.6 percent observed in the previous quarter. Thus, 11 consecutive quarters of growth were recorded. The result of the quarter was driven by the dynamism of employment and income, the expansion of consumer credit, and the greater liquidity of the private sector. Nationally, labor market indicators maintained a favorable performance. Formal employment registered a year-on-year growth of 4.1 percent in the second quarter, which represented the incorporation of approximately 251 thousand new jobs. The expansion was led by the private sector, with 235 thousand new jobs. In particular, the services sector stood out (97 thousand), driven by activities linked to business services and transport and communications, commerce (49 thousand) and agriculture (39 thousand). Likewise, total real wage mass grew 4.4 percent, which represented a moderation compared to the 7.3 percent observed in the previous quarter. This result was supported by the increase in both employment and average income, partially offset by the increase in inflation. During the quarter, imports of durable consumer goods maintained double-digit growth (37.4 percent). This performance was explained mainly by an increase in the acquisition of cars, televisions, motorcycles, and bicycles. The growth of consumer credit showed an acceleration and reached 6.4 percent, above the 4.0 percent observed in the previous quarter. This expansion was II Q. III Q. IV Q. Year I Q. II Q. I Domestic Demand 5.5 5.9 5.0 5.6 6.7 5.2 Private Consumption 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.7 Public Consumption 3.8 4.7 0.9 3.3 7.1 4.1 Private Investment 9.2 11.5 10.1 10.0 13.2 17.6 Non-mining Investment 9.2 10.0 6.7 8.8 10.8 15.9 Mining Investment 9.5 25.7 35.3 20.3 39.0 34.0 Public Investment 2.6 4.8 5.6 5.7 -0.2 -2.6 Change in Inventories 2/ 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 -1.0 II Exports 1.9 2.7 4.9 4.7 1.2 3.1 III Imports 12.7 10.6 10.7 12.6 11.7 12.7 IV GDP ( I + II - III ) 2.7 3.7 3.3 3.4 3.6 2.6 Public Investment 3/ Of which: National Government 9.1 -13.8 -4.0 0.5 -16.8 -17.8 Subnational Governments 3.7 17.9 14.7 12.4 16.0 8.1 2025 2026
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 5 boosted by the increase in credits associated with cards and vehicle credit, in a context of reduction of delinquency rates. Indicators of transactions and monetary, such as the internal IGV, payment receipts, and currency in circulation, maintained a favorable evolution. In addition, the Digital Payments Indicator (DPI) 2 continued with its growing trend, explained mainly by a greater use of digital wallets and payment cards. 4. Private investment accelerated its growth again, from 13.2 to 17.6 percent year-on-year between the first and second quarters of 2026. This acceleration was credited to non-residential investment, which increased by 22.5 percent, higher than the 16.0 percent observed in the previous quarter. This result was mainly due to the acceleration of the non-mining sector, as well as the good performance of mining investment. On the other hand, residential investment grew 5.1 percent. Table 2 PRIVATE INVESTMENT, BY COMPONENTS (Year-on-year real percentage change) Source: BCRP. BCRPData/NEMAC202606C2 Within the non-residential non-mining component of investment, the advance of infrastructure projects stood out, mainly in the transport sector, such as Line 2 of the Lima and Callao Metro and road projects linked to IIRSA North and IIRSA South. To this were added investments aimed at expanding and renewing installed capacity in other sectors, in line with the increase in imports of capital goods (excluding construction materials), as well as greater credit to companies. According to the notes to the financial statements of large private sector companies, increases in investment levels were recorded in several sectors. The electrical sector stood out, with a joint execution of approximately S/ 400 million in the second quarter. Pluz Energía, Luz del Sur, and Electroperú led the expansion, with around S/ 51 million additional invested compared to the same quarter of the previous year, aimed mainly at expanding and renewing distribution networks, mass electrification projects, and replacement of facilities. In the telecommunications sector, Integratel invested nearly S/ 259 million, compared to nearly S/ 88 million the previous year, particularly in data networks and transmission, coverage expansion, and transmission capacity and modernization of its mobile network. 2 The DPI includes operations of clients of participants in the BCRP's Real-Time Gross Settlement System (LBTR) and digital retail payments (credit and immediate transfers via CCE, intrabank and interbank transfers via wallets (includes interoperable transfers via wallets) and other digital channels, payment cards, direct debit, and operations with electronic money (BIM). II Q. III Q. IV Q. Year I Q. II Q. Total Private Investment 9.2 11.5 10.1 10.0 13.2 17.6 Residential Investment 3.1 2.4 5.3 3.5 7.3 5.1 Non-Residential Investment 11.8 15.6 11.9 12.8 16.0 22.5 Mining 9.5 25.7 35.3 20.3 39.0 34.0 Non-Mining 12.2 14.0 7.3 11.6 12.7 20.7 2025 2026
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 6 Regarding the hydrocarbons sector, Petroperú and La Pampilla Refinery executed approximately S/ 139 million, an increase of S/ 68 million compared to the second quarter of 2025. Petroperú allocated the amounts to various ongoing works and to the final stage of the Talara Refinery Modernization Project. Meanwhile, Backus and Gloria made investments of nearly S/ 121 million. Gloria's disbursements stood out, aimed at projects for expanding bottling and dairy product manufacturing lines, for approximately S/ 37 million. The Ministry of Energy and Mines reported that in the second quarter of 2026 mining investment amounted to USD 1,795 million. The main investments of the quarter were executed by Southern (USD 245 million), Shougang (USD 162 million), Antamina (USD 156 million), and Las Bambas (USD 131 million). The total investment amount in the period exceeded that of the same quarter of 2025 by USD 529 million, and the increase corresponded mainly to development and preparation and infrastructure items. By company, the increase in mining investment was explained mainly by: (i) Southern Peru, which increased its investment by approximately USD 175 million, mainly due to higher disbursements in development and preparation associated with the Tía María project, as well as in infrastructure and equipment in its Toquepala and Ilo Refinery operations; (ii) Antapaccay, whose investment increased by around USD 114 million, mainly due to higher disbursements in the Coroccohuayco concession aimed at operational support components, in addition to the acquisition of machinery and equipment; and (iii) Shougang, which increased its investment by approximately USD 77 million, associated mainly with infrastructure at the San Nicolás Accumulation Beneficiation Plant and development and preparation work at the CPS 1 UEA. 5. Public spending grew 2.3 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2026, mainly due to the increase in public consumption, partially offset by the decline in public investment. Public consumption increased 4.1 percent, which represented a slowdown compared to the 7.1 percent registered in the previous quarter. The expansion responded mainly to higher spending on goods and services, particularly professional and technical services, service leasing, and maintenance services. Public investment decreased 2.6 percent in the second quarter, a more pronounced contraction than the 0.2 percent drop in the first quarter. This result is explained mainly by the lower investment of the National Government, partially compensated by the greater execution of Subnational Governments. In the National Government, lower disbursements were recorded for projects under the former National Plan for Sustainable Infrastructure for Competitiveness (PNISC), mainly due to the completion of the first stage of the Bicentennial Schools, and those in charge of the National Infrastructure Authority (ANIN). Regarding Regional Governments, greater execution was observed in 13 of the 25 departments, with emphasis on Education, Health, and Sanitation functions. Meanwhile, Local Governments showed higher disbursements in 16 of the 25 departments, mainly in projects associated with Transport, Education, and Housing functions.
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 8
Savings-Investment Gaps
Table 3 1/ Includes inventory variation. 2/ Adjusted mainly by the effect of informal gold exports. Note: The savings-investment gap methodology considers that the public gap is equal to the economic result of the Non-Financial Public Sector. The data in this table are preliminary. Source: BCRP. BCRPData/NEMAC202606C3
Chart 3 Source: BCRP. BCRPData/NEMAC202606G3
Differences II Trim. (a) III Trim. IV Trim I Trim. II Trim. (b) (b) - (a) 1 Gross Internal Investment 1/ 21.2 21.3 21.1 20.9 21.1 -0.1 2 Internal Savings 23.6 24.0 24.6 25.3 25.6 2.0 External Gap (=2-1) 2.4 2.7 3.5 4.4 4.5 2.1 1.1 Gross Private Internal Investment 1/ 16.1 16.2 16.0 16.1 16.3 0.2 a. Gross private fixed investment 16.8 16.8 16.6 16.5 16.7 -0.1 b. Inventory variation 2/ -0.7 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 0.3 1.2 Private Savings 21.0 21.4 21.7 22.5 22.1 1.1 Private Gap (=1.2-1.1) 4.9 5.2 5.7 6.5 5.7 0.8 2.1 Public Investment 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 -0.4 2.2 Public Savings 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.8 3.5 0.9 Public Gap (=2.2-2.1) -2.6 -2.5 -2.2 -2.1 -1.3 1.3
SAVINGS-INVESTMENT GAPS (Accumulated last 4 quarters, % of nominal GDP) 2025 2026 4.5 5.4 6.2 5.8 5.7 4.9 5.2 5.7 6.5 5.7 -3.3 -3.8 -3.9 -3.4 -3.3 -2.6 -2.5 -2.2 -2.1 -1.3 1.2 1.6 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.5 4.4 4.5 I Trim 2024 II. Trim III. Trim IV. Trim I. Trim 2025 II. Trim III. Trim IV. Trim I. Trim 2026 II. Trim SAVINGS-INVESTMENT GAPS (Accumulated last 4 quarters, % of nominal GDP) Private gap Public gap External gap
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 9
II. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS: the current account surplus was 2.7 percent of GDP in the second quarter of 2026, higher by 0.9 p.p. than a year ago. With this, the annualized surplus increased to 4.5 percent of GDP, the highest level since 2006.
This was slightly reinforced by the increase in secondary income by USD 179 million, explained by higher income from non-resident income tax. However, the surplus pressures on the current account were limited by the increase in profits of companies with foreign capital by USD 1,895 million, mainly mining, as a consequence of the high international metal quotes, complemented by companies in the industry and hydrocarbon sectors. To a lesser extent, the increase in the deficit by services by USD 497 million —due to the increase in freight costs and expenditures for travel— limited the expansion of the current account surplus.
Table 4 BCRPData/NEMAC202606C4
II Trim. (a) III Trim. IV Trim. Year I Trim. II Trim.(b) (b) - (a) I. CURRENT ACCOUNT 1.9 4.2 5.8 3.5 5.1 2.7 0.9
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Chart 4 Source: BCRP. BCRPData/NEMAC202606G4
In terms of output, the accumulated current account surplus by the second quarter of 2026 rose from 2.4 to 4.5 percent, which represents 3 years of consecutive surplus (2023-2025) and 11 quarters of positive results in accumulated terms (Q4 2023-Q2 2026). This episode of continuous surplus results (from 2023 to 2025) exceeds in extent that at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic (2020), although it is still smaller than that of the period prior to the international financial crisis (2004-2007).
The year-on-year expansion of the surplus during the second quarter of 2026 came mainly from the price effect of domestic absorption by 4.3 percentage points (p.p.), in response to the growing trend of the terms of trade (4.6 p.p.). In the same direction contributed the "rest" item (0.4 p.p.), due to an increase in the flow of current transfers from abroad and to the higher balance of external reserve assets; and, the net volume effect of services (0.1 p.p.), resulting from higher income from passenger transport and other business services.
On the contrary, the higher returns paid on FDI liabilities (-1.6 p.p.), explained by the 34.2 percent expansion of profits of companies with foreign investment, partially compensated the effects of the components mentioned in the previous paragraph. Its dynamics are associated mainly to operations of companies in the mining and hydrocarbon sectors, due to the high international quotes of their products (minerals, oil and natural gas). Likewise, the good performance of the industry sector contributed. Another factor that exerted deficitary pressures was the negative volume effect of net goods trade (-2.5 p.p.), due to greater dynamism in import volumes, mainly capital goods and durable consumer goods —both consistent with
-4.2 -3.8 -3.1 -2.2 -1.6 -0.9 -0.5 -0.9-0.9 -1.1 -1.5 -1.2 -1.5 -1.5 -1.2 -0.7 -0.2 0.0 0.8 0.6 0.1 -0.7 -1.5 -2.3 -3.2 -3.4 -4.1 -4.0 -3.0 -1.8 -0.6 0.5 1.2 1.6 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.5 4.4 4.5 I Trim 2016 II III IV I Trim 2017 II III IV I Trim 2018 II III IV I Trim 2019 II III IV I Trim 2020 II III IV I Trim 2021 II III IV I Trim 2022 II III IV I Trim 2023 II III IV I Trim 2024 II III IV I Trim 2025 II III IV I Trim 2026 II CURRENT ACCOUNT (Percentage of GDP - Accumulated last 4 quarters) Historical average IT 2001-IIT 2026:
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 11 the strength of private spending—, and oil, given the geopolitical context; as well as lower shipments of agricultural and steel products.
Table 5 FACTORS BEHIND THE VARIATION IN CURRENT ACCOUNT RESULT, 2025-2026 Current Account (% of GDP) Year-on-year variation of CA (p.p. of GDP)
In contrast, the private sector recorded an expansion of net external debt by USD 2,673 million, reaching the equivalent of 1.3 percent of GDP in the second quarter of 2026. This evolution responded mainly to an increase in short-term external liabilities by USD 688 million, particularly from the banking sector, in contrast with the continuous reductions it had been recording since the second quarter of 2025. Likewise, the drop in long-term loan amortizations by USD 3,375 million, from the non-financial sector —mainly mining— and higher disbursements to the banking sector —to finance foreign trade operations and working capital—, contributed to greater private external financing.
7.9 10.0 -2.0 -2.3 -6.4 -7.2 2.4 2.3 1.9 2.7 2 T 2025 2 T 2026 Goods Services Primary income Secondary income Current account 2T 2026/ 2T 2025 A. Domestic absorption 1.9
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 12
Table 6 BCRPData/NEMAC202606C6
Table 7 BCRPData/NEMAC202606C7
In particular, average export prices increased in the second quarter of 2026 due to global supply shocks associated with the negative impact of II Trim. (a) III Trim. IV Trim. Year I Trim. II Trim.(b) (b) - (a) FINANCIAL ACCOUNT -4.3 2.1 0.2 -1.0 0.1 -2.6 1.7 Net creditor (+) / Net debtor (-) I. LONG-TERM FINANCIAL ACCOUNT -5.8 0.7 -2.1 -2.2 -1.0 -2.0 3.8
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 13 the Middle East conflict and stoppages in various mines. On the other hand, demand remains for electrification, renewable energy, data centers and for safe-haven assets like gold. This favorable evolution was partially attenuated by the fall in prices of non-traditional fishing products, associated with a greater supply of Peruvian squid.
This effect was partially counteracted by the increase in average import prices (13.0 percent), explained mainly by the increase in the cost of oil and its derivatives (56.9 percent), which impacted the increase in industrial input prices (9.4 percent). The price of oil rose as a consequence of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, in the context of the conflict between the United States and Iran, while industrial inputs —particularly plastics, fertilizers and chemical products— rose due to higher energy costs and the shortage of petrochemical inputs associated with the same conflict.
With the result of this period, Peru records 24 consecutive quarters of trade surplus. If we exclude the pandemic episode, Peru would have recorded more than 9 consecutive years of surplus results (39 quarters). On an annual basis, the commercial surplus of the second quarter of 2026 was USD 44,882 million (increase of USD 9,450 million compared to the end of 2025) and as a percentage of GDP was 12.0 percent (increase of 1.6 p.p. compared to 2025), marking a new historical maximum.
Chart 5 TRADE BALANCE, 1994-2026 (In percentage of GDP) *Accumulated to the second quarter of 2026. Source: BCRP. BCRPData/NEMAC202606G5
2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026*
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Exports amounted to USD 27,279 million during the second quarter of 2026, which represented a year-on-year expansion of USD 7,106 million (35.2 percent). The greater year-on-year dynamism of export prices —mainly of traditional products (39.2 percent)— was reinforced by the growth in the shipped volumes of these same products (5.4 percent), driven basically by gold (12.2 percent) and copper (1.9 percent). These effects were partially counteracted by a drop in shipments of non-traditional products of 5.5 percent, explained basically by agricultural products (-5.6 percent), steel products (-14.6 percent) and textiles (- 9.2 percent).
The growth in shipments of traditional products was sustained mainly by gold dispatches. To a lesser extent, it contributed the increase in the volume of exported copper, explained by a statistical base effect, due to anomalous waves that had limited shipments at the beginning of the second quarter of 2025. On the contrary, a drop was observed in shipments of fish meal —lower availability of anchovy biomass, aggravated by the El Niño phenomenon—, zinc — lower mineral grades in Antamina— and hydrocarbons, due to scheduled maintenance in the natural gas export lot.
On the other hand, the lower shipments of non-traditional sectors are explained by agricultural products, such as some cocoa manufactures, asparagus and tangerines; the production of the latter has begun to be compromised by temperature anomalies. The contraction of steel product dispatches is associated with the United States (US) tariff, a measure that continued to affect shipments of copper products. Finally, in the textile sector, lower sales of clothing to the US were recorded.
Total annualized exports, as a percentage of GDP, were 29.1 percent by the second quarter of 2026, higher compared to 2025 (27.5 percent), due to the increase by 2.2 p.p. of traditional exports.
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 15
Chart 6 EXPORTS, 1994-2026 (In percentage of GDP) *Accumulated to the second quarter of 2026. Source: BCRP. BCRPData/NEMAC202606G6
Imports amounted to USD 17,731 million during the second quarter of 2026, which implied a year-on-year increase of USD 3,988 million (29.0 percent). This increase was explained by both greater volumes of imported goods and by the increase in prices, mainly oil and derivatives (56.9 percent) and industrial inputs (9.4 percent). In terms of volume, the most dynamic items were capital goods other than construction materials (28.7 percent), durable consumer goods (37.4 percent) and oil and derivatives (13.5 percent).
At the item level, the greater volume of capital goods imports responded mainly to greater purchases of heavy machinery and cargo or transport vehicles (dump trucks, pickup trucks, tractors, buses), a trend linked to the expansion of private investment in the economy. The purchases of durable consumer goods were driven by the acquisition of cars, motorcycles and bicycles, consolidating the trend observed so far this year, which is motivated by the solid performance of private spending.
Although to a lesser magnitude, the categories of industrial inputs and non-durable consumer goods also showed expansion in their volumes, by 1.5 and 4.3 percent, respectively. Within industrial inputs, the aggregate result was sustained by organic chemical and plastic products. As for non-durable consumer goods, purchases of food, human-use medicines and perfumery and cosmetics products stood out.
Total imports, on an annual basis and as a percentage of GDP, were 17.2 percent by the second quarter of 2026, slightly higher compared to the end of 2025 (17.1 percent). From the peak reached in 2022 (22.6 percent of output), the
0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026* NON-TRADITIONAL - AGRICULTURAL 10.4 12.1 10.7 13.8 15.5 19.4 23.4 27.2 25.6 22.1 27.1 24.5 21.1 17.7 18.6 20.7 20.4 27.5 26.7 24.6 25.8 27.5 29.1 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026* TOTAL 7.4 7.9 8.4 6.9 9.6 10.9 14.0 17.4 21.2 19.3 17.0 21.1 18.7 15.6 13.6 12.1 13.1 15.5 14.3 20.4 19.3 17.7 18.8 20.6 22.8 5.0 7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0 15.0 17.0 19.0 21.0 23.0 25.0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026* TRADITIONAL 2.9 3.6 3.9 4.3 4.2 4.5 5.3 6.0 6.2 5.0 5.2 6.0 5.5 5.7 5.3 5.8 6.1 7.0 7.3 6.8 6.9 6.8 6.3 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026* NON-TRADITIONAL
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 16
Imports have been decreasing, a dynamic explained by the inputs component; meanwhile, capital and consumption goods have recovered in recent quarters.
Chart 7 IMPORTS, 1994-2026 (In percentage of GDP) *Accumulated to the second quarter of 2026. Source: BCRP. BCRPData/NEMAC202606G7
Outflows for freight increased by USD 301 million (35.2 percent), in a context of high oil prices associated with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. In telecommunications, IT, and information, outflows rose by USD 98 million, mainly due to higher imports of services from the last two components. Travel outflows increased by USD 97 million due to the higher outflow of resident travelers via airports, which grew by 9.1 percent year-on-year, partially offsetting the flow via land borders (-13.0 percent), resulting in a 1 percent drop in total outbound flows.
Service inflows increased by USD 103 million. This result is mainly explained by higher inflows from tickets (transport) by USD 78 million and other business services by USD 23 million. Travel inflows decreased by USD 6 million. The arrival of non-resident travelers fell by 5.6 percent year-on-year—2.9 percent via airports and -9.5 percent via land borders—with the number of tourists remaining at levels below pre-pandemic—25.0 percent below that observed in the second quarter of 2019.
1,0 2,0 3,0 4,0 5,0 6,0 7,0 8,0 9,0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026* CAPITAL 12,9 14,7 15,2 13,8 14,6 13,7 14,8 17,0 23,5 17,1 21,7 20,9 19,2 17,6 18,2 17,4 16,6 21,0 22,6 18,3 17,6 17,1 17,2 10,0 12,0 14,0 16,0 18,0 20,0 22,0 24,0 26,0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026* TOTAL 3,2 3,5 3,6 3,0 3,2 3,1 3,7 3,2 3,7 3,9 4,3 4,4 4,3 4,2 4,2 4,5 4,5 4,1 4,0 4,1 4,1 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026* CONSUMPTION 5,2 6,0 6,2 7,2 6,9 8,1 9,1 12,0 8,2 10,7 9,6 8,2 8,1 8,9 8,1 7,4 10,4 12,5 9,1 8,6 7,9 7,7 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026* INPUTS
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 17
The profits of FDI companies in the second quarter of 2026 exceeded those recorded in the same period of 2025 by USD 1,810 million. This result was mainly due to the better performance of the mining sector, favored by higher export prices for metals. Likewise, companies in the industry and hydrocarbons sectors also recorded higher profits. On the other hand, the services sector showed lower results, mainly due to non-financial services, while the energy sector showed no major variation.
The mining sector recorded an increase in profits of USD 1,650 million, driven mainly by the rise in export prices of copper, gold, and zinc. The international price of copper increased from USD 4.62 per pound in the second quarter of 2025 to USD 6.66 per pound in the second quarter of 2026; gold went from USD 3,292 to USD 4,502 per ounce; and zinc from USD 0.99 to USD 1.21 per pound. Profits in the industry sector increased by USD 112 million, explained mainly by beverage producers and refineries, given the rise in international oil quotations during the second quarter. In this regard, the hydrocarbons sector also recorded an increase in net results, in a context of rising export prices for both natural gas and oil.
Conversely, profits in the services sector decreased by USD 40 million, mainly due to the lower results of airlines—affected by the rise in fuel—as well as telecommunications and non-bank financial companies. On the other hand, banking sector companies recorded better results, supported mainly by higher financial income derived from a broader credit portfolio. Finally, the energy sector showed no major variation. Companies related to energy generation presented lower profits, mainly due to the expiration of old contracts. Companies related to energy distribution presented better profits due mainly to lower operating costs and lower interest expenses.
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 18
Table 8 1/ Includes the Financial Sector. Source: Companies. Includes estimates. BCRPData/NEMAC202606C8
In the second quarter of 2026, secondary income amounted to USD 2,165 million, representing an increase of USD 179 million compared to the same period of 2025. This result was explained by higher income from income tax on non-residents, offset by lower income from payment of extraordinary insurance claim indemnities to resident insurers. Remittances from Peruvian workers residing abroad amounted to USD 1,331 million, representing a reduction of USD 10 million (-0.7 percent year-on-year), partly due to restrictive migration measures in the United States, including a 1.0 percent tax on cash remittances, and the slowdown in the growth of European economies. The United States remains the main origin of this type of remittance.
During the second quarter of the year, net long-term external financing of the private sector was USD 641 million, contrary to the increase in external assets of USD 160 million in the same period of the previous year. This result is mainly explained by:
(i) A greater increase in external liabilities compared to that observed in the same quarter of 2025. External liabilities rose by USD 4,221 million, which was USD 2,894 million higher than the liability flow of the second quarter of 2025. Lower amortization of long-term loans and an increase in portfolio liabilities due to higher net issuances by the non-financial private sector were observed.
Loans increased by USD 718 million, which was USD 2,557 million higher than in the second quarter of 2025. The financial sector increased its disbursements by USD 461 million, a result that contrasts with the net amortization recorded in the second quarter of last year. The higher disbursements are mainly explained by the banking sector. In the non-financial sector, disbursements to the industrial sector stand out, along with a significant reduction in the amortization flow, mainly from mining companies.
Portfolio liabilities showed greater growth compared to the second quarter of 2025. Reopenings of previously issued debt instruments were recorded by an infrastructure company and a mining company, to strengthen their financial position and optimize their capital structure.
Differences II Qtr. (a) III Qtr. IV Qtr. Year I Qtr. II Qtr. (b) (b)-(a)
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 19
FDI liabilities increased by USD 3,224 million, slightly lower compared to the second quarter of 2025. The liability flow of the quarter is explained mainly by the reinvestment of profits (mainly mining); and to a lesser extent, by capital contributions. The lower result compared to the previous year is supported by slightly lower financing via debt, although it stands out that another mining company received the entire resources of the bond issued by its parent company for a project.
(ii) The higher liabilities were limited by a greater increase in external assets, compared to that observed in the same quarter of 2025.
FDI assets increased by USD 1,831 million, which was USD 1,899 million higher compared to the second quarter of 2025. This is mainly due to an increase in debt instruments in the mining and industry sectors.
Portfolio investment flow totaled USD 1,749 million (USD 1,555 million in the second quarter of 2025). This was mainly due to higher purchases of external assets by mutual funds (USD 1,066 million) and insurance companies (USD 344 million). The portfolio investment flow of AFPs remained negative for the third consecutive quarter (net sales), although at a lower rate than that observed in the first quarter of this year, to cope with withdrawals by their affiliates.
The public sector recorded a net inflow of capital (increase in its net debtor position) of USD 1,245 million in the second quarter of 2026, a figure lower than the net inflow of USD 4,891 million, recorded in the same quarter of 2025. This evolution is the result of a drop in portfolio investment by USD 3,705 million, explained mainly by lower issuances due to a base effect resulting from comparison with the second quarter of 2025, a period in which a global bond auction took place for USD 3,000 million, destined to finance the repurchase of bonds with near-term maturities. To a lesser extent, the reduction in the pace of purchases of sovereign bonds by non-residents by USD 732 million contributed.
The short-term capital account reflected a net sale of external assets by USD 601 million, a result contrary to the net purchase observed in the same quarter of the previous year by USD 1,271 million.
In the financial sector, an increase in bank liabilities (USD 745 million) was observed, due to national currency deposits from non-residents and loans, which was similar to the increase in its assets (USD 695 million), resulting in a net result of lower purchases by USD 50 million. In the non-financial sector, a reduction in external assets was observed, lower deposits, and collections from the mining sector.
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 20
higher short-term assets of the non-financial sector and higher FDI in debt instruments.
On the other hand, external liabilities reached USD 307,425 million (81.9 percent of GDP), an amount USD 21,690 million higher than the balance of the second quarter of 2025. This increase is explained by the increase in the balance of foreign direct investment liabilities by USD 11,155 million, as well as the portfolio liabilities of the private sector held by non-residents, mainly due to valuation effects on holdings of equity income, particularly mining shares; and debt liabilities by USD 2,347 million.
Chart 8 VALUATION OF NON-RESIDENT HOLDINGS IN EQUITY BY SECTOR (USD Millions) Source: Cavali. BCRPData/NEMAC202606G8
In relative terms of GDP, the balance of private external debt fell from 16.3 to 14.3 percent between the second quarter of 2025 and 2026, while that of public external debt fell from 23.5 to 19.6 percent in the same period.
0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 Banks and Other Financials Diversified Industrial Mining Insurance Public Services Rest
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 21
Chart 9 BALANCE OF MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM EXTERNAL DEBT: 2018-2026 (Percentage of GDP) 1/ The balance of public external debt includes sovereign bonds held by non-residents. Source: BCRP. BCRPData/NEMAC202606G9
15,0 14,2 22,8 21,3 20,2 18,5 18,7 18,4 17,8 17,2 16,8 16,3 15,8 15,3 14,2 14,3 15,2 16,6 23,2 26,3 24,2 22,2 21,6 21,4 22,7 22,1 22,1 23,5 22,5 21,4 19,9 19,6 30,2 30,8 46,0 47,6 44,4 40,7 40,3 39,7 40,5 39,3 39,0 39,8 38,2 36,7 34,1 33,9 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2Q 2024 3Q 2024 4Q 2024 1Q 2025 2Q 2025 3Q 2025 4Q 2025 1Q 2026 2Q 2026
Public 1/ Private
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 22
III. PUBLIC FINANCES: the fiscal deficit accumulated over the last 12 months fell from 2.6 percent of GDP to 1.3 percent between the second quarter of 2025 and 2026.
Economic Result
The annualized current revenues of the quarter increased by 9.7 percent in real terms compared to the same period of the previous year and represented 19.4 percent of GDP, which was 0.2 percentage points higher than that recorded a year ago. This performance was associated with the greater dynamism of economic activity and the favorable evolution of export prices.
Tax revenues reached 15.2 percent of GDP and registered a year-on-year real growth of 10.5 percent. This result responded, mainly, to the increase in collection from advance payments of the Corporate Income Tax, the Selective Consumption Tax (ISC), the internal VAT, and other tax revenues, including the special tax on mining, casinos, and slot machines, the transfer of detractions, and fines. However, this increase was partially compensated by a higher amount of tax refunds. On the other hand, non-tax revenues remained at 4.3 percent of GDP, because the increase in the Special Mining Levy, mining royalties, and transfers from public entities were compensated by a drop in canon and oil royalties, as well as interest income.
Table 9 NON-FINANCIAL PUBLIC SECTOR OPERATIONS (Accumulated last 4 quarters, percentage of GDP) 1/ General Government. 2/ Real percentage variations reflect the year-on-year change in the accumulated last four quarters. The difference is shown in percentage points. 3/ Includes capital income of the General Government and primary result of state-owned enterprises. Source: MEF, Banco de la Nación, Sunat, EsSalud, public benefit societies, state-owned enterprises, and public institutions. BCRPData/NEMAC202606C9
Difference II Qtr. (a) III Qtr. IV Qtr. I Qtr. II Qtr. (b) (b) - (a)
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 23
Non-financial expenditure represented 19.5 percent of GDP in the accumulated last twelve months, a figure 1.1 percentage points lower than that observed in the second quarter of 2025. However, in real terms, it registered a year-on-year growth of 2.9 percent, driven mainly by the increase in current expenditure. This increase was explained by higher disbursements in remuneration—especially in the Education, Public Order and Security, Health, Defense and National Security, Legislative, Justice and Planning and Management sectors—as well as by higher spending on goods and services and transfers. In contrast, capital expenditure decreased from 6.1 to 5.2 percent of GDP, mainly due to the lower execution of other capital expenditures. This decrease is explained, in part, because the expenditure accumulated to June 2025 includes the capitalization of Petroperú by S/ 6.1 billion (September 2024), while the annualized expenditure to June 2026 considers support for the same company through the honoring of guarantees associated with a foreign trade credit from the Banco de la Nación, by S/ 3.1 billion.
In quarterly terms, the NFPS recorded a fiscal surplus equivalent to 3.9 percent of GDP, which was 3.0 percentage points higher than that achieved in the same quarter of 2025. This performance responded to the increase in current revenues as a percentage of GDP and the reduction in non-financial expenditure. Current revenues accumulated eight consecutive quarters of growth in real terms, favored by greater economic activity, the expansion of formal employment, high export prices, and the effect of higher coefficients applied to advance payments of the Income Tax (IT).
Table 10 NON-FINANCIAL PUBLIC SECTOR OPERATIONS (Percentage of GDP) 1/ General Government. 2/ The difference is shown in percentage points. 3/ Includes capital income of the general government and primary result of state-owned enterprises. Source: MEF, Banco de la Nación, Sunat, EsSalud, public benefit societies, state-owned enterprises, and public institutions. BCRPData/NEMAC202606C10
Difference II Qtr. (a) III Qtr. IV Qtr. Year I Qtr. II Qtr. (b) (b) - (a)
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 24 General Government Revenues and Expenses 22. Current revenues grew 18.7 percent in real terms compared to the second quarter of 2025. This result was mainly due to greater dynamism in economic activity and high export prices, which have remained at favorable levels since the second quarter of 2024. By component, the growth was mainly explained by higher tax revenue collection, highlighting Income Tax (IR), both for individuals and corporations, the General Sales Tax (IGV) on domestic sales, and the Selective Consumption Tax (ISC). Likewise, tax refunds registered a decrease compared to the same period of the previous year. Regarding non-tax revenues, an increase was observed in transfers from public entities, the Special Levy on Mining, mining royalties, and oil canon and royalties. This result was partially offset by lower interest income and other revenues of the national government. Income Tax collection grew 13.5 percent in real terms compared to the second quarter of 2025, driven mainly by higher revenues from corporations. In particular, the collection of third-category IR increased 40.1 percent in real terms, as a result of the increase in coefficients applied to advance payments determined in the regularization of March-April 2026. Likewise, the collection of IR for individuals showed a favorable performance, explained mainly by the growth of fifth-category incomes, associated with the expansion of the formal wage mass, and second-category incomes, due to higher payments for dividend distribution.
Chart 10 Table 11 Current revenues and export prices (Annual nominal percentage variations) IR by categories (Annual real percentage variations)
In parentheses is included a characteristic keyword of each IR category, but not necessarily limited to them. Source: Sunat and BCRP. BCRPData/NEMAC202606G10 BCRPData/NEMAC202606C11
Revenues from IGV grew 14.6 percent in real terms compared to the same quarter of the previous year, due to the increase in both domestic IGV and IGV on imports. The growth of domestic IGV (14.7 percent) responded to greater economic activity, reflected in higher collection from the mining, commerce, manufacturing, and services sectors. On the other hand, the growth of IGV on imports (14.4 percent) was driven by the higher value of these and by higher payments associated with guaranteed imports, partially compensated by the appreciation of the sol.
The Selective Consumption Tax (ISC) increased 9.6 percent year-on-year in real terms. The component applied to fuels showed a contraction of 3.4 percent, mainly due to the reduction of the domestic component, in turn due to lower payments made by one of the country's main refineries. This effect was partially compensated by the higher ISC applied to imports, associated with the increase in fuel imports. On the other hand, ISC on other goods grew 17.0 percent, due to higher collection in the items of slot machines, imported goods, and soft drinks.
Table 12 Chart 11 Domestic IGV by sectors (Annual real percentage variations) Domestic IGV (Contribution to the annual real percentage variation, by sector, in p.p.)
Source: Sunat. BCRPData/NEMAC202606C12 BCRPData/NEMAC202606G11
Other tax revenues increased 19.5 percent in real terms compared to the same quarter of the previous year, driven mainly by (i) higher collection of the Special Mining Tax (IEM), associated with higher operating profits of the mining sector due to high export prices; (ii) higher revenues from the transfer of detracciones, due to SUNAT's audit actions; and (iii) the tax on casinos and slot machines.
Tax refunds decreased 9.0 percent in real terms, mainly due to lower refunds for early recovery of IGV, for overpayments or improper payments, and for the "other" item, the latter explained by a reduction in ex officio refunds.
Non-tax revenues grew 19.2 percent in real terms compared to the same quarter of the previous year. This result responded mainly to higher profit transfers from public entities (BCRP and Fonafe) to the Public Treasury, to the increase in mining royalties and the Special Levy on Mining, associated with higher operating profits of the mining sector favored by high export prices, and to the increase in social contributions, in line with the growth of
2026 II Trim. Year II Trim. TOTAL 5.9 6.5 14.7 Mining 19.4 28.7 78.7 Commerce 13.7 0.8 29.3 Construction -8.1 12.8 20.1 Manufacturing 5.9 -14.0 4.8 Services 17.4 5.6 2.4 Hydrocarbons -6.8 8.3 -2.7 Agriculture and fishing -9.2 -12.5 -17.2 2025 -4.0 0.0 4.0 8.0 12.0 16.0 20.0 IIT.25 IIIT.25 IVT.25 IT.26 IIT.26 Services Commerce Manufacturing Mining Hydrocarbons Agriculture and fishing Construction Domestic IGV
the formal wage mass. Likewise, higher revenues from own resources contributed. This result was partially compensated by lower interest income. 23. Non-financial expenditures of the second quarter of 2026 increased 3.6 percent year-on-year in real terms, due to an increase in current spending, which was partially counteracted by a fall in capital spending. Current spending registered a growth of 8.9 percent in real terms, explained by the increase in disbursements for remuneration (4.8 percent), mainly in the sectors of Education, Public Order and Security, Health, Defense and National Security; goods and services (13.9 percent), associated with the increase in spending on professional and technical services, service leasing, and maintenance services; and transfers (7.5 percent), due mainly to higher transfers destined to social programs and the payment of pensions, as well as to a higher level of compensation to the Fuel Price Stabilization Fund (FEPC). In April, spending on goods and services was additionally driven by the recording of an advance of S/ 1,589 million for the acquisition of fighter jets by the Armed Forces. General Government capital spending decreased 11.6 percent in real terms, due to a fall in both gross capital formation (-3.7 percent) and other capital spending (-70.8 percent). The gross capital formation of the National Government showed a real contraction of 19.3 percent, due to lower incurred spending on projects under the former National Plan for Sustainable Infrastructure for Competitiveness (PNISC), particularly in Bicentennial Schools, due to the completion of the first stage of this project, as well as in projects under the National Infrastructure Authority (ANIN), mainly those oriented to integral solutions for flood protection of river margins, basins, and banks, and rainwater drainage. In Regional Governments, gross capital formation increased 0.9 percent in real terms, mainly due to greater execution in Education, Health, and Sanitation functions. By department, 13 of the 25 Regional Governments showed a higher level of incurred spending during the second quarter of 2026 compared to the same period of the previous year, highlighting those located in Ucayali, Ancash, and Ica. In Local Governments, gross capital formation increased 10.1 percent in real terms. This expansion was recorded mainly in the functions of Transport, Education, and Housing. By department, an increase was observed in 16 of the 25 departments, highlighting the Local Governments located in Lima, Cajamarca, and Ica.
Chart 12 INVESTMENT PROJECT EXECUTION OF REGIONAL AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS BY DEPARTMENT: IT-2026 (Year-on-year variation in millions of soles) Regional Governments Local Governments Source: MEF. Elaboration: BCRP. BCRPData/NEMAC202606G12
The item of other capital spending registered a real contraction of 70.8 percent, mainly due to a base effect associated with the honoring of state guarantees of credit recorded in June 2025 for S/ 438 million, corresponding to the foreign trade credit granted by the National Bank to Petroperú, as well as for lower transfers to the Mivivienda Fund and for the promotion of private investment. Public Debt 24. Gross public debt stood at 28.3 percent of GDP at the end of the second quarter of 2026, representing a reduction of 1 p.p. compared to the level recorded at the end of the first quarter. This evolution was explained mainly by the decrease in external debt and, to a lesser extent, by the reduction in internal debt, both measured as a percentage of GDP. The balance of gross public debt amounted to S/ 363.4 billion, an amount S/ 3.3 billion lower than that recorded at the end of the first quarter of the year. External debt decreased by S/ 4.5 billion, mainly due to the amortization of external credits with commercial banks and the effect of the appreciation of the sol against the dollar. On the other hand, internal debt increased by S/ 1.2 billion, mainly due to the placement of sovereign bonds carried out within the framework of the Market Makers program. At the end of the second quarter of 2026, the balance of net public debt reached S/ 262.5 billion, equivalent to 20.4 percent of GDP, a level 2.1 percentage points lower
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 28 than that recorded at the end of the first quarter. In nominal terms, net debt decreased by S/ 20.2 billion, mainly due to the fiscal surplus and the net effect of the exchange rate appreciation on gross debt and financial assets.
Chart 13 GROSS AND NET DEBT OF THE NON-FINANCIAL PUBLIC SECTOR (In percentage of GDP and balance in thousands of millions of soles)
Source: BCRP and MEF. BCRPData/NEMAC202606G13
31.7 32.0 31.9 32.0 31.0 31.6 30.9 30.1 29.2 28.3 21.9 22.0 22.4 23.4 22.9 21.8 22.4 22.7 22.5 20.4 16.0 22.0 28.0 34.0 2024 IT 2024 IIT 2024 IIIT 2024 2025 IT 2025 IIT 2025 IIIT 2025 2026 IT 2026 IIT Gross Debt Net Debt Balances Gross Debt Net Debt 2024 IT 327.1 226.4 2024 IIT 338.2 232.0 2024 IIIT 345.2 243.0 2024 355.2 259.6 2025 IT 351.9 259.6 2025 IIT 365.7 251.8 2025 IIIT 364.7 264.6 2025 365.6 276.1 2026 IT 366.7 282.7 2026 IIT 363.4 262.5
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 29 IV. LIQUIDITY AND CREDIT RATIOS: the credit-to-GDP ratio fell from 36 to 35 percent between the second quarter of 2025 and 2026, while the liquidity ratio rose from 43 to 45 percent. 25. The credit monetization coefficient, defined as the ratio of credit to GDP, was reduced from 36 to 35 percent of output between the second quarter of 2025 and 2026. The evolution in terms of output is a reflection of the faster recovery rate of GDP compared to credit. In nominal terms, credit to the private sector rose 8.7 percent between June 2025 and 2026, mainly due to the increase in consumer and corporate credit. Liquidity to GDP increased to 45 percent of output compared to that observed in the second quarter of the previous year (43 percent). Total liquidity advanced 16.4 percent year-on-year in nominal terms due to the increase in all its components. The expansion of currency in circulation by 17.9 percent stood out, as well as that of demand, savings, time, and CTS deposits, which also registered positive variations.
Chart 14 Note: Calculated with constant exchange rate (S/ 3.36 per USD). Source: BCRP. BCRPData/NEMAC202606G14
Chart 15 Note: Calculated with constant exchange rate (S/ 3.36 per USD). Source: BCRP. BCRPData/NEMAC202606G15
31.8 37.8 40.5 40.1 38.8 35.9 35.0 34.7 34.6 34.3 33.8 33.3 32.6 32.1 31.6 31.4 30.7 30.5 29.5 29.1 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.3 27.5 11.2 11.6 10.8 10.5 10.0 9.7 8.7 8.6 8.7 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.1 8.9 8.9 8.7 8.5 8.3 8.0 7.7 7.6 7.9 7.8 7.9 7.7 7.9 43 49 51 51 49 46 44 43 42 42 41 40 40 39 39 37 37 36 35 35 IT 20 IIT IIIT IVT IT 21 IIT IIIT IVT IT 22 IIT IIIT IVT IT 23 IIT IIIT IVT IT 24 IIT IIIT IVT IT 25 IIT IIIT IVT IT 26 IIT CREDIT (In percentage of GDP) MN ME 31.1 39.0 41.5 42.6 41.8 36.1 35.7 34.8 33.2 31.9 33.2 32.8 31.9 31.1 31.1 31.8 31.1 32.0 32.8 32.9 31.6 31.2 31.3 33.5 33.5 32.8 12.9 14.3 14.9 15.4 15.0 13.5 12.5 12.8 13.4 12.9 12.6 12.3 12.2 12.0 11.7 11.7 12.4 11.1 11.5 11.2 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.4 11.3 11.8 44 53 56 58 57 50 48 48 47 45 46 45 44 43 44 44 43 45 IT 20 IIT IIIT IVT IT 21 IIT IIIT IVT IT 22 IIT IIIT IVT IT 23 IIT IIIT IVT IT 24 IIT IIIT IVT IT 25 IIT IIIT IVT IT 26 IIT LIQUIDITY (In percentage of GDP) MN ME
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 30 V. TOTAL FINANCING OF THE PRIVATE SECTOR: rose 7.7 percent year-on-year in June 2026. 26. Total financing to the private sector (credit from financial intermediaries, local capital market funding, and borrowing from abroad) increased by 7.7 percent in June 2026 compared to the same month in 2025, reflecting a widespread expansion of its financing sources. The advance was driven mainly by credit provided by other financial companies (12.1 percent); and, credit granted by deposit companies (8.7 percent). To a lesser extent, private external borrowing contributed, whose medium and long-term component increased 2.4 percent.
Table 13 1/ The dollarization coefficient is shown in percentage for the columns of millions of soles and the difference in percentage points for the columns of growth rates. Note: Credit from deposit companies does not include foreign currency credit granted by branches of banks abroad. Balances in foreign currency are valued at constant exchange rate (S/ 3.36 per USD). Source: BCRP. BCRPData/NEMAC202606C13
Dec-24 Jun-25 Dec-25 Jun-26 Dec-25/ Dec-24 Jun-26/ Jun-25 Credit from deposit companies 407 894 418 994 434 916 455 305 6.6 8.7 National currency 322 605 328 106 339 523 353 282 5.2 7.7 Foreign currency (millions of USD) 25 384 27 050 28 391 30 364 11.8 12.3 Dollarization (%) 1/ 20.9 21.7 21.9 22.4 1.0 0.7 Credit from other financial companies 38 200 39 057 44 174 43 766 15.6 12.1 National currency 25 946 25 725 29 360 27 582 13.2 7.2 Foreign currency (millions of USD) 3 647 3 968 4 409 4 816 20.9 21.4 Dollarization (%) 1/ 32.1 34.1 33.5 37.0 1.5 2.8 Private external borrowing 94 784 87 064 89 099 88 121 -6.0 1.2 (millions of US$) 28 210 25 912 26 518 26 227 -6.0 1.2 Short term (millions of USD) 4 675 4 439 4 204 4 235 -10.1 -4.6 Medium and long term (millions of USD) 23 534 21 473 22 313 21 991 -5.2 2.4 TOTAL 540 878 545 116 568 188 587 192 5.0 7.7 National currency 348 551 353 830 368 883 380 865 5.8 7.6 Foreign currency (millions of USD) 57 240 56 930 59 317 61 407 3.6 7.9 Dollarization (%) 1/ 35.6 35.1 -0.5 0.0 EXPANDED FINANCING TO THE PRIVATE SECTOR Millions of S/ Percentage variation
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 31 ANNEX 1: DETAILED TABLES OF THE BALANCE OF PAYMENTS BCRPData/NEMAC202606A1.1 II Trim. (a) III Trim. IV Trim. Year I Trim. II Trim. (b) (b) - (a) I. CURRENT ACCOUNT (1+2+3+4) 1 539 3 717 5 729 12 005 4 723 2 625 1 086
BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 59 – August 21, 2026 32 BCRPData/NEMAC202606A1.2 II Trim.(a) III Trim. IV Trim. Year I Trim. II Trim. (b) (b) - (a) I. CURRENT ACCOUNT (1+2+3+4) 1.9 4.2 5.8 3.5 5.1 2.7 0.9
NOTES FROM THE CENTRAL BANK OF PERU No. 59 – August 21, 2026 33 BCRPData/NEMAC202606A1.3 BCRPData/NEMAC202606A1.4 I Trim. II Trim. III Trim. IV Trim. YEAR I Trim. II Trim.
NOTES FROM THE CENTRAL BANK OF PERU No. 59 – August 21, 2026 34 BCRPData/NEMAC202606A1.5 BCRPData/NEMAC202606A1.6 II Trim. (a) III Trim. IV Trim. Year I Trim. II Trim. (b) (b) - (a) I. INCOME 1,649 1,656 1,684 6,531 1,661 1,697 48 Private sector 743 763 775 2,973 727 732 -11 Public sector 906 894 910 3,557 934 964 59 II. EXPENDITURE 6,866 7,818 7,806 29,634 9,783 8,628 1,762 Private sector 6,152 6,793 7,063 26,022 8,421 7,991 1,839 Profits 2/ 5,540 6,201 6,479 23,598 7,864 7,435 1,895 Interest 612 592 583 2,424 556 556 -56 Bonds 236 239 249 959 249 255 19 Loans 376 353 334 1,465 307 301 -75 Long-term 242 229 227 961 214 207 -34 Short-term 3/ 134 124 108 504 94 94 -41 Public sector 4/ 714 1,025 743 3,612 1,363 637 -77 Of which: Interest on loans 331 63 320 786 67 270 -61 Interest on bonds 383 963 424 2,826 1,296 368 -15 III. TOTAL (I-II) -5,217 -6,162 -6,122 -23,104 -8,122 -6,932 -1,715 Private sector -5,409 -6,030 -6,288 -23,049 -7,693 -7,259 -1,850 Public sector 192 -132 166 -55 -428 327 135 PRIMARY INCOME 1/ (Millions of USD) 2025 2026 Differences 1/ Excludes financial intermediation services measured indirectly (FISIM). 2/ Includes reinvested earnings and dividends from direct investment, as well as returns on equity participation in portfolio investment. 3/ Includes private and public companies and includes interest on debt with non-residents denominated in national currency. 4/ Includes commissions. Source: BCRP, MEF, Cofide, ONP and companies. II Trim. (a) III Trim. IV Trim. Year I Trim. II Trim. (b) (b) - (a) I. ASSETS 1,487 3,214 620 8,040 1,778 3,580 2,093
NOTES FROM THE CENTRAL BANK OF PERU No. 59 – August 21, 2026 35 BCRPData/NEMAC202606A1.7 BCRPData/NEMAC202606A1.8 I Trim. (a) II Trim. III Trim. IV Trim. Year I Trim. (b) (b) - (a) I. ASSETS -40 -163 277 153 226 92 132 II. LIABILITIES 1,206 4,727 -847 -302 4,785 -497 -1,704
NOTES FROM THE CENTRAL BANK OF PERU No. 59 – August 21, 2026 36 BCRPData/NEMAC202606A1.9 II Trim.(a) III Trim. IV Trim. I Trim. II Trim. (b) (b) - (a) I. ASSETS 189,791 196,449 204,210 215,845 210,824 215,845 26,053
NOTES FROM THE CENTRAL BANK OF PERU No. 59 – August 21, 2026 37 BCRPData/NEMAC202606A1.10 You can find the tables and graphs of this report in BCRPData/NEMAC202606 II Trim.(a) III Trim. IV Trim. I Trim. II Trim. (b) (b) - (a) I. ASSETS 60.9 60.7 59.8 58.4 57.5 -3.4
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