Regulatory Alerts2026-08-27
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Macrosurvey: Experts Updated Forecasts of Inflation and the Base Rate
Experts from 15 organizations engaged in analysis and forecasting of macroeconomic indicators presented updated forecasts excluding those from the National Bank. Analysts' inflation forecast is 10% in 2026, 8.5% in 2027, and 7% in 2028, while median expectations for the base rate are 16% in 2026, 13% in 2027, and 10.5% in 2028. GDP growth is expected at 4.8% in 2026, 4.6% in 2027, and 4.3% in 2028, with expectations for the Brent crude oil price at USD 82.7 per barrel in 2026, USD 75 in 2027, and USD 73.7 in 2028.
Macrosurvey: Experts Updated Forecasts of Inflation and the Base Rate
27.08.2026
The National Bank of Kazakhstan has published the results of latest macroeconomic survey among the expert community.
Experts presented forecasts for Brent crude oil prices, Kazakhstan’s economic growth, inflation, the base rate, exports and imports of goods and services, as well as the tenge exchange rate.
Oil prices and economic growth
Scenario assumptions for oil prices
did not undergo significant changes: expectations for the Brent crude oil price in 2026 decreased slightly to USD
82.7
per barrel, remained unchanged at USD 75
per barrel for 2027, and increased slightly to USD
73.7 per barrel for 2028.
Forecasts for Kazakhstan’s economic growth
remained unchanged over the entire forecast horizon. GDP growth is expected at
4.8% in 2026, 4.6% in 2027, and 4.3% in 2028.
Inflation and base rate
Analysts’ inflation forecast in 2026 remained unchanged at 10%, while the forecast for 2027 increased from 7.8% to 8.5% , and for 2028 – from 6.8% to 7% .
The median expectations for the base rate in 2026 remained unchanged at 16% . The forecast for 2027 increased from 12.8% to 13% , while for 2028 it decreased slightly from 10.6% to 10.5% .
Survey respondents
The survey involved 15 organizations engaged in analysis and forecasting of macroeconomic indicators of Kazakhstan. The respondents include professional market participants, research institutes, international organizations and rating agencies.
Please note that the macroeconomic survey does not include forecasts from the National Bank . The indicators presented reflect the independent views, assessments, and expectations of professional market participants.
For more see the Internet resource of the National Bank
For more details, media representatives can contact: +7 (7172) 77–52–10 e-mail: press@nationalbank.kz www.nationalbank.kz
Macrosurvey: Experts Updated Forecasts of Inflation and the Base Rate
201.1 Кб
Date of publication:
27.08.2026
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