Macrosurvey: Experts Updated Forecasts of Inflation and the Base Rate

Macrosurvey: Experts Updated Forecasts of Inflation and the Base Rate

27.08.2026

The National Bank of Kazakhstan has published the results of latest macroeconomic survey among the expert community.

Experts presented forecasts for Brent crude oil prices, Kazakhstan’s economic growth, inflation, the base rate, exports and imports of goods and services, as well as the tenge exchange rate.

Oil prices and economic growth

Scenario assumptions for oil prices

did not undergo significant changes: expectations for the Brent crude oil price in 2026 decreased slightly to USD

82.7

per barrel, remained unchanged at USD 75

per barrel for 2027, and increased slightly to USD

73.7 per barrel for 2028.

Forecasts for
Kazakhstan’s economic growth

remained unchanged over the entire forecast horizon. GDP growth is expected at

4.8% in 2026,
4.6% in 2027, and
4.3% in 2028.

Inflation and base rate

Analysts’ inflation forecast in 2026 remained unchanged at 10%, while the forecast for 2027 increased from 7.8% to 8.5% , and for 2028 – from 6.8% to 7% .

The median expectations for the base rate in 2026 remained unchanged at 16% . The forecast for 2027 increased from 12.8% to 13% , while for 2028 it decreased slightly from 10.6% to 10.5% .

Survey respondents

The survey involved
15 organizations engaged in analysis and forecasting of macroeconomic indicators of Kazakhstan. The respondents include professional market participants, research institutes, international organizations and rating agencies.

Please note that the macroeconomic survey does not include forecasts from the National Bank . The indicators presented reflect the independent views, assessments, and expectations of professional market participants.

For more see the
Internet resource of the National Bank

For more details, media representatives can contact:
+7 (7172) 77–52–10 e-mail: press@nationalbank.kz www.nationalbank.kz

Macrosurvey: Experts Updated Forecasts of Inflation and the Base Rate

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Date of publication:

27.08.2026