Study Note No. 40: Macroeconomic Expectations Survey Report - May 2026

BCRP STUDY NOTES
No. 40 – June 5, 2026
1 / 14

Macroeconomic Expectations Survey Report:
May 20261

1. In the second half of May, the Macroeconomic Expectations Survey was conducted on a representative sample of companies from various economic sectors in the country, as well as financial institutions and economic analysts.

Inflation Expectations

2. The inflation expectation for 2026 was located in a range of 2.80 to 3.50 percent. For 2027, it is between 2.25 and 2.60 percent, while for 2028, agents expect inflation between 2.20 and 2.50 percent.

BCRPData/NEEXP202605C1

3. The inflation expectation, for the average of economic analysts and the financial system, rose from 2.82 percent in April to 2.89 percent in May.

1 Prepared by Patrick Castilla, specialist in the Sectoral Economic Activity Department.

31 Mar. 30 Apr. 29 May.

ECONOMIC ANALYSTS 1/
2026 2.80 3.15 3.50
2027 2.25 2.50 2.60
2028 2.25 2.37 2.35

FINANCIAL SYSTEM 2/
2026 2.45 2.80 2.95
2027 2.15 2.50 2.25
2028 2.15 2.25 2.20

NON-FINANCIAL COMPANIES 3/
2026 2.30 2.50 2.80
2027 2.30 2.50 2.50 =
2028 2.30 2.50 2.50 =

1/ 18 analysts in March, 16 in April, and 20 in May 2026 2/ 14 financial companies in March, 14 in April, and 14 in May 2026 3/ 282 non-financial companies in March, 278 in April, and 278 in May 2026

MACROECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS SURVEY:
INFLATION (%)
Survey conducted on:

BCRP STUDY NOTES
No. 40 – June 5, 2026
2 / 14

BCRPData/NEEXP202605G1

Growth Expectations

4. The GDP growth expectation for 2026 was located in a range of 3.0 and 3.1 percent. For 2027 and 2028, agents expect growth between 3.0 and 3.3 percent.

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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
Feb-07
Jul-07
Dec-07
May-08
Oct-08
Mar-09
Aug-09
Jan-10
Jun-10
Nov-10
Apr-11
Sep-11
Feb-12
Jul-12
Dec-12
May-13
Oct-13
Mar-14
Aug-14
Jan-15
Jun-15
Nov-15
Apr-16
Sep-16
Feb-17
Jul-17
Dec-17
May-18
Oct-18
Mar-19
Aug-19
Jan-20
Jun-20
Nov-20
Apr-21
Sep-21
Feb-22
Jul-22
Dec-22
May-23
Oct-23
Mar-24
Aug-24
Jan-25
Jun-25
Nov-25
Apr-26

12-month inflation expectations of analysts and the financial system (Percentage points) Note: The 12-month inflation expectations are calculated as the simple average of the 12-month expectations of the financial system and economic analysts. For each of them, an estimate of the 12-month expectation is obtained by weighting the expectation of the year by the number of months remaining and the expectations of the following year by the number of months left to complete the 12 months.

Range
Inflation target
Maximum
Minimum
2.89
%
Feb. 26 2.14
Mar. 26 2.52
Apr. 26 2.82
May. 26 2.89

31 Mar. 30 Apr. 29 May.

ECONOMIC ANALYSTS 1/
2026 2.9 2.9 3.0
2027 3.1 3.2 3.3
2028 3.2 3.0 3.1

FINANCIAL SYSTEM 2/
2026 3.1 =
2027 3.0 =
2028 3.0 =

NON-FINANCIAL COMPANIES 3/
2026 3.1 3.0 3.1
2027 3.3 3.1 3.2
2028 3.4 3.2 3.3

1/ 18 analysts in March, 16 in April, and 20 in May 2026 2/ 14 financial companies in March, 14 in April, and 14 in May 2026 3/ 282 non-financial companies in March, 278 in April, and 278 in May 2026

MACROECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS SURVEY:
GDP GROWTH (%)
Survey conducted on:

BCRP STUDY NOTES
No. 40 – June 5, 2026
3 / 14

Exchange Rate and Interest Rate Expectations

5. The exchange rate expectation for the end of 2026 and 2027 is in a range of S/ 3.46 and S/ 3.50 per dollar. For 2028, it moved to a range between S/ 3.48 and S/ 3.53 per dollar.

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6. The 12-month exchange rate expectation, for the average of economic analysts and the financial system, moved from S/ 3.44 per dollar in April to S/ 3.48 per dollar in May.

31 Mar. 30 Apr. 29 May.

ECONOMIC ANALYSTS 1/
2026 3.38 3.43 3.50
2027 3.40 3.45 3.50
2028 3.40 3.53 3.50

FINANCIAL SYSTEM 2/
2026 3.40 3.47 3.46
2027 3.42 3.42 3.46
2028 3.47 3.47 3.48

NON-FINANCIAL COMPANIES 3/
2026 3.45 3.50 3.46
2027 3.50 =
2028 3.50 3.55 3.53

1/ 18 analysts in March, 16 in April, and 20 in May 2026 2/ 14 financial companies in March, 14 in April, and 14 in May 2026 3/ 282 non-financial companies in March, 278 in April, and 278 in May 2026

• Exchange rate at year-end

MACROECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS SURVEY:
EXCHANGE RATE (S/ per US$)*
Survey conducted on:

BCRP STUDY NOTES
No. 40 – June 5, 2026
4 / 14

BCRPData/NEEXP202605G2

7. For 2026, the reference interest rate expectation for analysts and financial entities remained at 4.25 percent. For 2027, the prospects for this variable are between 4.0 and 4.25 percent; while for 2028, they are at 4.0 percent.

BCRPData/NEEXP202605C4

2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
Feb-07
Jul-07
Dec-07
May-08
Oct-08
Mar-09
Aug-09
Jan-10
Jun-10
Nov-10
Apr-11
Sep-11
Feb-12
Jul-12
Dec-12
May-13
Oct-13
Mar-14
Aug-14
Jan-15
Jun-15
Nov-15
Apr-16
Sep-16
Feb-17
Jul-17
Dec-17
May-18
Oct-18
Mar-19
Aug-19
Jan-20
Jun-20
Nov-20
Apr-21
Sep-21
Feb-22
Jul-22
Dec-22
May-23
Oct-23
Mar-24
Aug-24
Jan-25
Jun-25
Nov-25
Apr-26

12-month exchange rate expectations of analysts and the financial system (Soles per dollar) Note: The 12-month exchange rate expectations are calculated as the simple average of the 12-month expectations of the financial system and economic analysts. For each of them, an estimate of the 12-month expectation is obtained by weighting the expectation of the year by the number of months remaining and the expectations of the following year by the number of months left to complete the 12 months.

3.48
S/ per USD
Feb. 26 3.38
Mar. 26 3.39
Apr. 26 3.44
May. 26 3.48

31 Mar. 30 Apr. 29 May.

ECONOMIC ANALYSTS 1/
2026 4.25 =
2027 4.00 4.25 4.25 =
2028 4.00 4.25 4.00

FINANCIAL SYSTEM 2/
2026 4.25 =
2027 4.00 =
2028 4.00 =

1/ 18 analysts in March, 16 in April, and 20 in May 2026 2/ 14 financial companies in March, 14 in April, and 14 in May 2026

MACROECONOMIC EXPECTATIONS SURVEY:
YEAR-END REFERENCE INTEREST RATE
Survey conducted on:

BCRP STUDY NOTES
No. 40 – June 5, 2026
5 / 14

Business Expectations

8. In May, mixed results are presented in the current situation indicators. Most of the expectations indicators increased and remained in the optimistic range, with the exception of the economy and sector indicators at 3 months. Fourteen indicators out of a total of 18 were located in the optimistic range. The expectations indicators for input and sales prices at 3 months decreased.

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Dec 2019 Mar 2020 Mar 2026 Apr May Corr. with GDP 1/ Historical Avg

CURRENT BUSINESS SITUATION 53.4 41.1 55.6 56.6 > 56.4 ~ > 0.56 54.3 SALES LEVEL 54.2 30.3 56.5 56.4 ~ > 56.2 ~ > 0.49 54.3 PRODUCTION LEVEL 50.0 23.5 51.2 57.1 > 57.9 > 0.44 52.8 DEMAND LEVEL WITH RESPECT TO EXPECTED 40.0 23.0 47.0 47.6 < 47.0 < 0.68 44.3 PURCHASE ORDERS WITH RESPECT TO PREVIOUS MONTH 51.2 27.5 56.5 54.6 > 51.5 > 0.52 51.5 UNWANTED INVENTORY DAYS 2/ 8.9 5.9 8.9 9.4 ↑ < 9.5 ~ < -0.36 10.3

EXPECTATION OF:
THE ECONOMY AT 3 MONTHS 50.8 21.8 52.0 44.6 < 46.2 < 0.63 54.7 THE ECONOMY AT 12 MONTHS 61.5 41.5 60.0 51.2 > 55.9 > 0.42 61.4 THE SECTOR AT 3 MONTHS 51.5 28.5 55.0 51.1 > 50.0 = 0.67 56.6 THE SECTOR AT 12 MONTHS 61.5 43.4 62.1 56.5 > 58.8 > 0.33 62.6 YOUR COMPANY'S SITUATION AT 3 MONTHS 56.1 28.3 57.1 55.1 > 53.8 > 0.66 60.3 YOUR COMPANY'S SITUATION AT 12 MONTHS 66.6 46.4 65.1 60.9 > 63.4 > 0.66 64.7 DEMAND FOR YOUR PRODUCTS AT 3 MONTHS 55.1 30.7 61.4 55.6 > 56.5 > 0.66 58.7 DEMAND FOR YOUR PRODUCTS AT 12 MONTHS 68.0 47.4 68.8 65.5 > 66.3 > 0.66 66.9 PERSONNEL HIRING AT 3 MONTHS 48.6 35.9 54.9 52.9 > 53.2 > 0.66 51.5 PERSONNEL HIRING AT 12 MONTHS 54.0 39.6 60.7 57.8 > 59.0 > 0.58 56.0 YOUR COMPANY'S INVESTMENT AT 3 MONTHS 3/ 51.3 29.9 60.3 55.8 > 57.2 > 0.65 50.5 YOUR COMPANY'S INVESTMENT AT 12 MONTHS 3/ 59.3 40.0 65.1 60.5 > 63.7 > 0.65 58.8

EXPECTED AVERAGE PRICE OF:
INPUTS AT 3 MONTHS 51.5 52.9 64.5 66.7 ↑ > 60.7 ↓ > 0.63 56.8 SALES AT 3 MONTHS 56.4 49.7 59.0 61.8 ↑ > 61.2 ↓ > 0.59 57.5

: greater than 50
< : less than 50
3/ Correlation with Private Investment from September 2017 to December 2019, considering optimal lag (t=-3 for investment at 3 months and t=-6 for investment at 12 months) 4/ Depending on the indicator, the historical average is taken from 2002-2013 to the last month executed (May 2026)

Macroeconomic Expectations Survey Results ~ : Indicates that the monthly difference of each diffusion index is not greater, in absolute value, than 0.2. Arrows up or down indicate that this threshold was exceeded, while the sign "-" implies that the index did not vary. 1/ Correlations found from December 2007 to December 2019 respectively. For current situation indicators, the contemporary correlation is shown, and for the rest of the expectations, the correlation with GDP advanced by three periods is presented. 2/ Unwanted inventory days show the difference between the inventory days corresponding to each month minus the desired inventory days according to companies.

BCRP STUDY NOTES
No. 40 – June 5, 2026
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Current Situation Indicators

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12
12 Reported Percentages
Greater Equal Less Index
Apr. 26 22 69 9 56.6
May. 26 23 67 10 56.4
Variation -0.2

CURRENT BUSINESS SITUATION
How do you consider the current situation of your business?

10
20
30
40
50
60
70
E.16 J E.17 J E.18 J E.19 J E.20 J E.21 J E.22 J E.23 J E.24 J E.25 J E.26

12
12 Reported Percentages
Greater Equal Less Index
Apr. 26 17 61 22 47.6
May. 26 17 60 23 47.0
Variation -0.6

DEMAND LEVEL WITH RESPECT TO EXPECTED

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
E.16 J E.17 J E.18 J E.19 J E.20 J E.21 J E.22 J E.23 J E.24 J E.25 J E.26

12
12 Reported Percentages
Greater Equal Less Index
Apr. 26 26 60 14 56.4
May. 26 26 61 13 56.2
Variation -0.2

SALES LEVEL

10
20
30
40
50
60
70
E.16 J E.17 J E.18 J E.19 J E.20 J E.21 J E.22 J E.23 J E.24 J E.25 J E.26

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12
12 Reported Percentages
Greater Equal Less Index
Apr. 26 18 73 9 54.6
May. 26 16 71 13 51.5
Variation -3.1

PURCHASE ORDERS WITH RESPECT TO PREVIOUS MONTH

10
20
30
40
50
60
70
E.16 J E.17 J E.18 J E.19 J E.20 J E.21 J E.22 J E.23 J E.24 J E.25 J E.26

12
12 Reported Percentages
Greater Equal Less Index
Apr. 26 29 57 14 57.1
May. 26 29 58 13 57.9
Variation 0.8

PRODUCTION LEVEL

10
20
30
40
50
60
70
E.16 J E.17 J E.18 J E.19 J E.20 J E.21 J E.22 J E.23 J E.24 J E.25 J E.26

12
12 Reported Percentages
Greater Equal Less Index
Apr. 26 18 68 14 51.6
May. 26 21 66 13 54.0
Variation 2.4

INVENTORIES WITH RESPECT TO PREVIOUS MONTH

30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
E.16 J E.17 J E.18 J E.19 J E.20 J E.21 J E.22 J E.23 J E.24 J E.25 J E.26

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Current Situation by Sector

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12
Days
Apr. 26 9.4
May. 26 9.5
Variation 0.1

UNWANTED INVENTORIES

0
5
10
15
20
25
E.16 J E.17 J E.18 J E.19 J E.20 J E.21 J E.22 J E.23 J E.24 J E.25 J E.26

April May April May April May
Mining and Hydrocarbons 55.9 58.3 62.5 55.9 46.7 50.0 Manufacturing 53.2 55.6 56.7 58.8 50.5 51.1 Construction 56.3 53.1 62.5 64.3 53.6 50.0 Commerce 58.3 54.3 n.a. n.a. n.a. 57.0 49.1 Services 61.6 61.0 n.a. n.a. n.a. 62.3 56.9 Total 56.4 56.2 ~ 57.1 57.9 54.6 51.5 Sales Level Production Level Purchase Orders

April May April May
Mining and Hydrocarbons 76.5 69.4 50.0 61.1 Manufacturing 53.8 53.8 42.2 40.2 Construction 37.5 46.9 40.6 37.5 Commerce 61.0 59.6 56.7 55.9 Services 57.5 57.6 ~ 48.7 46.6 Total 56.6 56.4 ~ 47.6 47.0

Current Business Situation Demand with respect to expected

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Expectations Indicators

BCRPData/NEEXP202605G10
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Greater Equal Less Index
Apr-26 8 73 19 45
May-26 7 78 15 46
Variation 1.6

Apr-26 20 62 18 51
May-26 22 67 11 56
Variation 4.7

12 months

EXPECTATION OF THE ECONOMY AT 3 AND 12 MONTHS Reported Percentages 3 months

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
E.16 J E.17 J E.18 J E.19 J E.20 J E.21 J E.22 J E.23 J E.24 J E.25 J E.26 ECONOMY AT 3 MONTHS ECONOMY AT 12 MONTHS

EXPECTATION OF THE SECTOR AT 3 AND 12 MONTHS

Greater Equal Less Index
Apr-26 14 75 11 51
May-26 12 76 12 50
Variation -1.1

Apr-26 26 61 13 56
May-26 26 65 9 59
Variation 2.3

12 months

Reported Percentages
3 months

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
E.16 J E.17 J E.18 J E.19 J E.20 J E.21 J E.22 J E.23 J E.24 J E.25 J E.26 SECTOR AT 3 MONTHS SECTOR AT 12 MONTHS

EXPECTATION OF YOUR COMPANY'S SITUATION AT 3 AND 12 MONTHS

Greater Equal Less Index
Apr-26 18 75 7 55
May-26 15 77 8 54
Variation -1.3

Apr-26 31 60 9 61
May-26 35 57 8 63
Variation 2.5

12 months

3 months

Reported Percentages

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
E.16 J E.17 J E.18 J E.19 J E.20 J E.21 J E.22 J E.23 J E.24 J E.25 J E.26 COMPANY AT 3 MONTHS COMPANY AT 12 MONTHS

EXPECTATION OF PERSONNEL HIRING AT 3 AND 12 MONTHS

Greater Equal Less Index
Apr-26 14 78 8 53
May-26 13 81 6 53
Variation 0.3

Apr-26 24 68 8 58
May-26 25 68 7 59
Variation 1.2

3 months

Reported Percentages
12 months

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
E.16 J E.17 J E.18 J E.19 J E.20 J E.21 J E.22 J E.23 J E.24 J E.25 J E.26 HIRING AT 3 MONTHS HIRING AT 12 MONTHS

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EXPECTATION OF DEMAND AT 3 AND 12 MONTHS

Greater Equal Less Index
Apr-26 21 69 10 56
May-26 21 71 8 56
Variation 0.9

Apr-26 38 55 7 66
May-26 38 57 5 66
Variation 0.8

3 months

12 months

Reported Percentages

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
E.16 J E.17 J E.18 J E.19 J E.20 J E.21 J E.22 J E.23 J E.24 J E.25 J E.26 DEMAND AT 3 MONTHS DEMAND AT 12 MONTHS

EXPECTATION OF INVESTMENT AT 3 AND 12 MONTHS

Greater Equal Less Index
Apr-26 18 76 6 56
May-26 20 74 6 57
Variation 1.4

Apr-26 28 65 7 60
May-26 33 62 5 64
Variation 3.2

12 months

3 months

Reported Percentages

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
E.16 J E.17 J E.18 J E.19 J E.20 J E.21 J E.22 J E.23 J E.24 J E.25 J E.26 INVESTMENT AT 3 MONTHS INVESTMENT AT 12 MONTHS

12 Reported Percentages
Greater Equal Less Index
Apr. 26 29 66 5 61.8
May. 26 27 68 5 61.2
Variation -0.6

Indicate your forecast for the next three months regarding the price of the final good

EXPECTATION OF AVERAGE SALES PRICE AT 3 MONTHS

30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
E.16 J E.17 J E.18 J E.19 J E.20 J E.21 J E.22 J E.23 J E.24 J E.25 J E.26

12 Reported Percentages
Greater Equal Less Index
Apr. 26 40 53 7 66.7
May. 26 32 57 11 60.7
Variation -6.0

EXPECTATION OF AVERAGE INPUT PRICE AT 3 MONTHS

Indicate your forecast for the next three months regarding input prices

30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
E.16 J E.17 J E.18 J E.19 J E.20 J E.21 J E.22 J E.23 J E.24 J E.25 J E.26

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Sectoral Expectations

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April May April May
Mining and Hydrocarbons 41.2 50.0 50.0 53.1 Manufacturing 47.3 47.8 55.2 57.1 Construction 43.3 46.7 60.0 60.0 Commerce 42.4 43.2 50.9 52.6 Services 46.1 47.3 48.6 57.6 Total 44.6 46.2 51.2 55.9

Economy at 3 months Economy at 12 months

April May April May
Mining and Hydrocarbons 44.1 50.0 58.8 61.8 Manufacturing 51.1 49.4 54.5 58.3 Construction 46.9 46.9 65.6 59.4 Commerce 53.3 50.0 57.6 58.8 Services 53.3 52.8 57.6 59.0 Total 51.1 50.0 56.5 58.8

Sector at 3 months Sector at 12 months

April May April May
Mining and Hydrocarbons 52.9 47.1 67.6 67.6 Manufacturing 54.8 57.6 64.6 65.7 Construction 50.0 46.7 56.7 60.0 Commerce 57.5 53.4 66.4 63.6 Services 59.7 62.3 68.8 70.6 Total 55.6 56.5 65.5 66.3

Demand at 3 months Demand at 12 months

April May April May
Mining and Hydrocarbons 55.9 55.9 61.8 70.6 Manufacturing 56.0 56.0 57.4 61.0 Construction 56.7 56.7 66.7 70.0 Commerce 56.9 55.2 61.4 60.7 Services 56.1 60.6 64.1 65.7 Total 55.8 57.2 60.5 63.7

Investment at 3 months Investment at 12 months

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Regional Expectations Survey

9. In May 2026, the regional perception survey was conducted with coverage of 285 companies operating in the different regions of the country.

With respect to the April survey, an increase was recorded in most current situation indicators in all zones. Likewise, a decrease was recorded in most expectations indicators in the north and center zones, while the south zone shows recovery. All expectations indicators remained in the optimistic range in the north and south zones, except for the economy at 3 months in the south zone. For the center zone, the economy indicators at 3 and 12 months are in the pessimistic range, while those of the sector at both horizons are located at the neutral point.

Out of a total of 18 indicators, the north zone registers 16 indicators in the optimistic range, the center zone, 12, and the south zone, 15.

April May April May
Mining and Hydrocarbons 55.9 55.6 61.8 61.1 Manufacturing 52.7 53.8 53.9 57.0 Construction 53.1 50.0 65.6 59.4 Commerce 55.8 51.7 60.2 57.9 Services 52.6 54.8 60.3 61.1 Total 52.9 53.2 57.8 59.0

Employment at 3 months Employment at 12 months

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10. The north zone, since May 2023, on average has been showing higher values with respect to the other zones in the expectations indicators of the economy at 3 and 12 months.

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Apr. 26 May. 26 Historical Avg. Apr. 26 May. 26 Historical Avg. Apr. 26 May. 26 Historical Avg.

CURRENT SITUATION

CURRENT BUSINESS SITUATION 66.4 69.0 > 56.1 55.9 54.2 > 50.0 55.2 58.9 > 48.8 SALES LEVEL 54.7 69.4 > 53.1 50.0 54.5 > 49.5 52.4 52.9 > 49.9 PRODUCTION LEVEL 40.0 50.0 = 52.9 50.0 66.7 > 47.8 56.7 57.7 > 51.8 DEMAND LEVEL WITH RESPECT TO EXPECTED 54.7 57.1 > 46.0 41.2 46.0 < 42.9 44.9 47.1 < 40.0 PURCHASE ORDERS WITH RESPECT TO PREVIOUS MONTH 55.2 69.1 > 52.8 52.3 52.9 > 49.7 48.6 54.7 > 48.9 UNWANTED INVENTORY DAYS1/ 5.3 2.5 ↓ < 1.6 -1.0 4.3 ↑ < -1.7 -3.1 2.5 < 0.7

EXPECTATIONS OF:
THE ECONOMY AT 3 MONTHS 44.1 51.5 > 51.5 50.0 47.9 < 46.8 45.2 48.8 < 44.4 THE ECONOMY AT 12 MONTHS 63.1 57.9 > 61.1 55.0 47.8 < 53.6 48.8 52.0 > 53.6 THE SECTOR AT 3 MONTHS 63.7 58.1 > 57.6 56.5 50.0 = 50.4 55.2 57.9 > 51.3 THE SECTOR AT 12 MONTHS 76.2 65.4 > 66.1 56.7 50.0 = 56.5 57.0 56.6 > 61.5 YOUR COMPANY'S SITUATION AT 3 MONTHS 67.2 63.3 > 59.9 59.4 62.0 > 54.7 60.6 63.1 > 55.9 YOUR COMPANY'S SITUATION AT 12 MONTHS 82.5 69.2 > 69.2 63.3 63.0 > 61.9 63.4 64.2 > 66.6 DEMAND FOR YOUR PRODUCTS AT 3 MONTHS 71.5 69.6 > 62.9 60.0 64.6 > 56.4 61.8 66.8 > 57.3 DEMAND FOR YOUR PRODUCTS AT 12 MONTHS 82.9 77.4 > 71.5 63.8 65.9 > 64.0 65.0 66.7 > 70.1 PERSONNEL HIRING AT 3 MONTHS 63.3 59.3 > 56.7 54.8 56.0 > 52.3 54.8 51.7 > 51.0 PERSONNEL HIRING AT 12 MONTHS 71.4 66.7 > 65.4 63.3 58.7 > 59.1 57.8 55.8 > 59.8 YOUR COMPANY'S INVESTMENT AT 3 MONTHS 71.7 66.4 > 57.9 60.0 62.5 > 54.7 57.7 54.2 > 53.1 YOUR COMPANY'S INVESTMENT AT 12 MONTHS 75.6 74.2 > 66.0 67.2 61.4 > 61.0 57.9 57.0 > 62.6

PRICES:
INPUTS AT 3 MONTHS 58.9 61.5 ↑ > 57.4 55.3 52.9 ↓ > 50.8 65.6 62.7 ↓ > 57.0 SALES AT 3 MONTHS 54.4 59.0 ↑ > 57.5 72.6 64.6 ↓ > 61.7 66.0 63.5 ↓ > 61.6

NUMBER OF RESPONSES 128 135 34 25 128 125

1/ Unwanted inventory days show the difference between the inventory days corresponding to each month minus the desired inventory days according to companies.

">" greater than 50 points (optimistic range), "<" less than 50 points (pessimistic range) and "=" equal to 50 points (neutral).

Summary Table
~ : Indicates that the monthly difference of each diffusion index is not greater, in absolute value, than 0.2. Arrows up or down indicate that this threshold was exceeded, while the sign "-" implies that the index did not vary.

North Zone Center Zone South Zone

EXPECTATION OF THE ECONOMY AT 3 MONTHS

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
O E.21 A J O E.22 A J O E.23 A J O E.24 A J O E.25 A J O E.26 A

Center Zone North Zone South Zone

12
Average
Oct.20 - May.26

Center Zone 46.8
North Zone 51.5
South Zone 44.4

12

BCRP STUDY NOTES
No. 40 – June 5, 2026
14 / 14

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Special Questions on the Mother's Day Campaign

11. 31 percent of the surveyed companies in the commerce sector reported that the performance of the Mother's Day campaign was better than expected. Compared to the previous year's result, for 32 percent the result was better.

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You can find the charts and tables of this report at:
BCRPData/NEEXP202605

Macroeconomic Statistics Sub-management Economic Information and Analysis Management Central Management of Economic Studies

Lima, June 5, 2026

EXPECTATION OF THE ECONOMY AT 12 MONTHS

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
O E.21 A J O E.22 A J O E.23 A J O E.24 A J O E.25 A J O E.26 A

Center Zone North Zone South Zone

Average
Oct.20 - May.26

Center Zone 53.6
North Zone 61.1
South Zone 53.6

12

52
23 23
40
27 25
10
32 31
23
40
32
2024 2025 2026 2024 2025 2026 than expected? at the beginning of the year? compared to the previous year's campaign? What was the performance of this year's Mother's Day campaign regarding ... (% of commerce sector responses) Worse Better