Regulatory Alerts2026-08-14
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Survey of Market Expectations 2026 08 13
The Central Bank of Iceland published survey results from 10-12 August 2026 indicating that market agents expect higher inflation in 2026 compared to the May survey, with one-year expectations unchanged at 3.9%. Participants anticipate the key interest rate will rise by 0.25 percentage points in Q3 2026 to 8%, with rates expected to fall again in Q1 2027. The share of respondents viewing the monetary policy stance as too tight increased to 50%, while those considering it appropriate fell to 17%. The range of responses regarding inflation and interest rate outlooks narrowed for most horizons, though the two-year inflation expectation range widened.
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