Regulatory Alerts2026-05-13
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Survey of Market Expectations 2026 05 12
The Central Bank of Iceland conducted a survey of market agents' expectations from 4 through 6 May, receiving responses from 26 participants. Market agents expect inflation to measure 3.9% in one year, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous survey, while longer-term expectations remain unchanged. Participants anticipate the key interest rate to rise by 0.25 percentage points to 7.75% in Q2/2026, followed by a decline starting in Q1/2027. Additionally, the median estimate for the equilibrium real interest rate was 2.5%.
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