2026-07-02

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Study Note No. 45: Inflation - June 2026

The Central Reserve Bank of Peru reported that annual inflation reached 4.01% in June 2026, driven primarily by sharp price increases in fresh fish and eggs. Core inflation excluding food and energy accelerated to 4.46% annually, reflecting significant cost pressures in international air transport and domestic services. While food and energy prices moderated, the overall inflationary environment remains elevated above the target range.

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BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 45 - July 2, 2026 1 / 29 INFLATION: JUNE 2026

  1. In June 2026, a monthly inflation rate of 0.23 percent was recorded, and 4.01 percent over the last 12 months. Inflation excluding food and energy -SAE- was 4.46 percent year-on-year, and SAE excluding transport services was 1.56 percent year-on-year. BCRPData/NEINF20266G1

  2. The main upward contributions to monthly inflation were fresh fish, meals outside the home, other fresh fruits, and papaya, while chicken meat, vehicle fuels, potatoes, and fresh legumes contributed to the decrease. BCRPData/NEINF20266C1

Main price increases of the month • Maritime fresh fish (26.0 percent): The result was explained by the higher price of bonito (48.7 percent), due to lower supply in June compared to the May average (-59.2 percent). Mackerel also experienced a price increase (18.1 percent) following lower arrivals at fishing terminals in the last week of June (-43.3 percent compared to the third week of June). This occurred due to the occurrence of anomalous swells that led to the closure of ports, mainly in the central and northern coast during the first half of the month, and in the southern zone in the last seven days.

Percentage variation of June -0.13 0.47 0.77 -0.34 0.25 0.10 -0.04 0.26 0.16 0.33 0.14 -0.16 0.33 -0.09 -0.27 0.52 1.19 -0.15 0.12 0.13 0.23 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 IPC Percentage variation of June Average 06-26 0.18

CONTRIBUTION TO INFLATION: JUNE 2026 IPC base Dec. 2021=100 Positive Weight Var.% Contribution Index item/ Negative Weight Var.% Contribution Index item/ IPC IPC Maritime fresh fish 0.7 26.6 0.17 122.5 Chicken meat 2.7 -4.5 -0.11 83.5 Meals outside the home 15.5 0.4 0.07 106.0 Vehicle fuels 1.1 -5.7 -0.06 96.8 Other fresh fruits 0.6 6.1 0.05 155.8 Potato 0.7 -6.0 -0.06 125.2 Papaya 0.2 14.0 0.04 152.7 Fresh legumes 0.2 -16.5 -0.04 113.5 Eggs 0.7 4.5 0.03 113.3 Onion 0.2 -4.6 -0.01 128.1 Banana 0.4 6.7 0.03 115.7 Rents 4.5 -0.4 -0.01 85.5 Apple 0.2 11.1 0.03 133.8 National air transport 0.2 -5.7 -0.01 71.6 Leaves or stems 0.2 11.0 0.02 144.9 Dry noodles 0.3 -2.2 -0.01 106.5 Corn 0.1 14.4 0.02 107.6 Sweet potato 0.1 -5.8 -0.01 131.9 Domestic and household services 2.2 0.8 0.02 92.0 Tomato 0.2 -3.4 -0.01 105.1 Total 0.48 Total -0.33

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• Meals outside the home (0.4 percent): The main price increases were recorded in restaurant menus (0.5 percent), breakfast in restaurants (0.9 percent), chaufa rice and pork chicharrón (0.6 percent each), chicken milanesa (0.5 percent), grilled chickens (0.4 percent), and pizzas (0.2 percent). In June, demand for this service likely increased due to Father's Day celebrations, the long weekend for the Feast of Saint Peter and Saint Paul, as well as the start of the 2026 Football World Cup from the second week of the month. • Other fresh fruits (7.8 percent): This mainly reflected the higher price of mango (27.2 percent), due to the end of the seasonal harvest in Ancash. This was partially compensated by the lower price of blueberries (-16.5 percent) due to higher arrivals from the departments of Lambayeque and La Libertad compared to the previous month (123.6 percent). • Papaya (14.0 percent): This reflected lower supply due to adverse weather conditions. Supply from Ucayali, San Martín, and Madre de Dios decreased 7.7 percent compared to May. In these regions, rainfall intensified in the low jungle and river flows increased in June, causing crop losses and difficulties in road transport. • Egg (4.5 percent): The higher price occurred in an environment where temperatures on the coast remained high and at levels similar to May. Additionally, demand pressures arose from provinces due to the Inti Raymi and San Juan Festival celebrations. • Banana (6.9 percent): The price of seda (7.8 percent) and isla (6.2 percent) varieties increased. The supply of seda banana from Piura and Junín decreased 6.2 percent compared to May due to the seasonal end of harvests in both departments. The arrival of isla banana also decreased seasonally compared to May (-3.2 percent).

Main price decreases of the month • Chicken meat (-5.2 percent): The price is explained by higher supply in the month due to higher placement of baby chickens in May (2.5 percent year-on-year growth). Additionally, demand appeared less dynamic, as the average weight of chicken grew 0.9 percent in June compared to the May average. • Vehicle fuels (-5.7 percent): The decrease in the average price of gasohols (-6.4 percent) reflected the reduction in international parity price (-14.0 percent), which was passed on to the refinery level (-12.8 percent). However, the lower refinery price was partially compensated by the increase in the gas station margin (22.6 percent).

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• Potato (-6.0 percent): Prices of white and yellow potatoes decreased (-7.1 and -3.9 percent, respectively). This was explained by the large campaign in the Central Sierra. In June, the supply of white potato from Junín and Ayacucho increased 6.9 percent compared to May. Additionally, shipments of yellow potato from Huánuco grew 9.5 percent compared to the previous month. • Rents (-0.4 percent): The price of rents in soles decreased due to the lower average exchange rate of June. • Onion (-4.6 percent): An increase in supply was recorded from Ica and Lima (45.2 percent compared to May), due to the seasonal arrival of harvests, as well as higher sowing between January and February. • National air transport (-5.7 percent): The result was influenced mainly by the lower price of fuels. In June, the WTI oil quote decreased around 20 percent compared to May.

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BCRPData/NEINF20266C2 Average Weight Dec.21=100 2001-2025 Month 12 months Month 12 months IPC 100.0 2.90 -0.16 3.91 0.23 4.01

  1. IPC excluding food and energy 55.3 2.35 0.09 4.44 0.08 4.46 SAE excluding transport 46.1 2.22 0.14 1.56 0.10 1.56 Goods 17.4 2.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 0.7 Services 37.9 2.6 0.1 6.1 0.1 6.1 Transport 9.1 2.9 -0.2 18.2 0.0 18.3 National land transport 0.3 4.2 -4.9 4.8 1.8 9.5 Local transport 8.1 2.9 0.0 19.1 0.1 19.1 National air transport 0.2 4.2 -3.8 16.4 -5.7 8.8
  2. Food and energy 44.7 3.5 -0.5 3.3 0.4 3.5 a. Food and beverages 40.0 3.6 -0.7 3.2 0.5 3.5 Chicken meat 2.7 2.6 -8.0 0.9 -4.5 -2.5 Eggs 0.7 3.3 -1.9 -11.7 4.5 -1.3 Agricultural perishable foods 5.0 4.3 -3.3 12.5 1.1 12.1 Potato 0.7 4.0 -6.2 20.7 -6.0 13.3 Fresh legumes 0.2 3.8 -32.9 -0.4 -16.5 -19.9 Fresh, refrigerated or frozen fish 0.1 2.7 -1.1 -7.8 -0.2 -7.1 Restaurant food service and lo 12.8 3.8 0.8 4.3 0.4 4.4 b. Fuels and electricity 4.8 2.8 2.2 3.9 -1.1 3.0 Fuels 2.1 2.7 0.2 14.4 -2.4 12.4 of which Vehicle fuels 1.1 2.1 0.1 29.5 -5.7 22.3 Domestic gas 0.8 2.4 0.3 2.6 0.6 4.4 Electricity 2.6 2.6 4.2 -4.4 0.1 -4.3 May 2026 Inflation: June 2026 Percentage variations June 2026

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Evolution of year-on-year inflation to June 3. The year-on-year inflation of June (4.01 percent) was higher than that of May (3.91 percent). The result responds mainly to the increase in fresh fish (from -0.3 to 18.3 percent) and eggs (from -11.7 to -1.3 percent). BCRPData/NEINF20266G2

  1. In June, inflation excluding food and energy -SAE- was 0.08 percent in the month and 4.46 percent in the last twelve months (4.44 percent in May). The result reflected the acceleration of international air transport year-on-year (from 8.7 to 10.4 percent). SAE excluding transport was 0.10 percent in the month and 1.56 percent year-on-year.

4.01 4.46 1.56 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 Mar-26 Jun-26 INFLATION (Percentage variation last twelve months) Inflation Inflation excluding food and energy SAE excluding transport Maximum Minimum Inflation target range May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Total Inflation Monthly -0.06 0.13 0.23 -0.29 0.01 -0.10 0.11 0.24 0.10 0.69 2.38 0.52 -0.16 0.23 12 months 1.69 1.11 1.36 1.35 1.37 1.51 1.70 2.21 3.80 4.01 3.91 4.01 Inflation excluding food and energy Monthly 0.05 0.07 0.18 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.06 0.46 0.04 0.36 2.07 0.87 0.09 0.08 12 months 1.79 1.69 1.68 1.75 1.81 1.77 1.77 1.83 2.02 2.20 3.65 4.41 4.44 4.46 Food and energy prices (Percentage variation) Monthly -0.18 0.20 0.29 -0.72 -0.04 -0.27 0.17 -0.01 0.16 1.08 2.74 0.12 -0.45 0.40 12 months 1.57 1.70 1.70 0.36 0.83 0.86 0.91 1.13 1.32 2.23 3.98 3.56 3.28 3.48

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BCRPData/NEINF20266G4 BCRPData/NEINF20266G3 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Food prices Monthly -0.13 0.25 0.36 -0.53 0.01 -0.21 0.30 -0.01 0.19 1.27 2.20 0.06 -0.70 0.55 12 months 1.87 1.98 2.07 0.91 1.44 1.53 1.78 2.04 2.29 3.33 4.39 3.82 3.22 3.53 Energy prices Monthly -0.71 -0.30 -0.41 -2.76 -0.65 -0.87 -1.22 -0.07 -0.15 -1.00 8.82 0.67 2.18 -1.13 12 months -1.38 -1.14 -2.10 -5.20 -5.26 -5.84 -7.81 -7.94 -8.31 -8.76 -0.20 0.92 3.86 3.00 0.72 6.14 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 Mar-26 Jun-26 INFLATION EXCLUDING FOOD AND ENERGY (Percentage variation last twelve months) SAE goods SAE services Maximum Minimum Inflation target range May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 SAE goods Monthly 0.09 0.08 0.02 -0.04 0.02 -0.01 -0.05 0.00 0.18 0.09 0.06 0.17 0.13 0.13 12 months 1.41 1.25 1.14 1.01 0.97 0.95 0.81 0.82 0.85 0.80 0.48 0.62 0.67 0.72 SAE services Monthly 0.03 0.06 0.26 0.14 0.08 0.07 0.10 0.67 -0.03 0.48 2.96 1.17 0.07 0.06 12 months 1.95 1.89 1.93 2.09 2.19 2.14 2.20 2.29 2.56 2.83 5.08 6.10 6.14 6.14 3.53 3.00

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  • 5 0 5 10 15 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24 Dec-24 Mar-25 Jun-25 Sep-25 Dec-25 Mar-26 Jun-26 FOOD AND ENERGY (Percentage variation last twelve months) Food and beverages Energy

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  1. The prices of SAE goods registered a year-on-year variation of 0.72 percent in June, higher than that observed in May (0.67 percent). Among the items that contributed to a greater variation stand out telephonic equipment (from 4.5 to 5.9 percent), medicines (from 0.4 to 0.7 percent), and household furniture (from 2.7 to 3.5 percent). BCRPData/NEINF20266C10

  2. Services registered a year-on-year price variation of 6.14 percent in June, equal to that observed in May. Among the items that contributed to a greater variation stand out national land transport (from 4.8 to 9.5 percent), international air transport (from 8.7 to 10.3 percent), and domestic services (from 5.2 to 5.6 percent). These increases were compensated by smaller increases in cultural services (from 2.0 to 1.8 percent) and rents (from 0.3 to 0.1 percent).

Inflation Goods Year-on-year percentage variations Wtd. Dec-23 Dec-24 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Goods 17.38 2.68 1.63 0.81 0.82 0.85 0.80 0.48 0.62 0.67 0.72 Textile and Footwear 4.10 2.74 0.67 1.12 1.20 1.24 1.12 1.08 1.03 1.01 1.03 Household appliances 0.46 0.67 1.99 2.36 2.57 2.64 2.59 2.14 1.41 1.03 0.53 of which: Stoves and refrigerators 0.22 1.53 2.86 2.85 3.04 2.85 2.86 2.45 2.00 1.26 0.52 Washing machines 0.13 -0.58 2.52 2.20 2.94 3.25 3.23 2.72 1.69 1.37 1.28 Rest of industrial 12.83 2.73 1.91 0.67 0.64 0.66 0.64 0.24 0.47 0.55 0.63 of which: Medicines 1.62 1.60 1.51 -0.12 -0.13 -0.27 -0.24 -0.16 0.15 0.40 0.68 Telephones 0.47 -2.62 -0.36 4.10 3.35 3.44 2.80 2.18 2.57 4.49 5.88 Household furniture 0.49 -0.11 1.12 1.80 1.35 1.54 1.55 1.85 2.31 2.69 3.49

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BCRPData/NEINF20266C3

  1. In June, the contribution to year-on-year inflation of the items most linked to exchange rate, IPM, and quotes was 0.13 percentage points. This result was mainly contributed by the increase in fuel prices.

Inflation Services Year-on-year percentage variations Wtd. Dec-23 Dec-24 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Services 37.89 3.01 3.05 2.20 2.29 2.56 2.83 5.08 6.10 6.14 6.14 Education 8.61 6.40 5.09 4.03 4.03 4.02 3.84 3.37 3.36 3.42 3.44 of which: Primary 1.55 10.39 6.31 5.26 5.15 4.63 Secondary 1.26 10.74 6.42 5.42 5.13 5.00 Higher 4.26 3.86 3.96 3.32 3.32 3.37 3.13 2.57 2.54 2.53 2.53 Post-secondary, non-tertiary 0.51 4.03 3.72 1.94 1.97 1.28 1.51 1.52 1.52 0.91 0.91 Teaching not attributable to any level 0.34 0.00 8.31 3.47 2.26 2.26 4.90 5.46 Transport 9.14 2.89 3.83 2.85 3.01 4.09 4.09 14.12 18.09 18.16 18.28 of which: National land 0.27 -5.23 12.35 -0.84 2.76 4.85 4.23 4.04 0.71 4.82 9.49 Local 8.08 3.51 3.62 2.92 3.03 3.89 4.02 14.63 19.10 19.07 19.14 National air 0.24 24.20 6.81 11.80 1.94 7.20 -2.16 11.58 17.24 16.44 8.78 International air 0.55 -9.05 2.09 0.31 3.18 6.23 7.87 10.43 9.19 8.71 10.31 Health 1.48 3.28 1.59 1.34 1.53 1.72 1.82 1.84 1.72 1.70 1.69 Other services 5.03 3.23 2.43 2.70 2.59 2.58 2.50 2.41 2.52 2.72 2.56 of which: Cultural services 1.13 5.57 3.24 2.84 1.88 2.16 2.46 2.13 2.19 2.05 1.79 Other personal services 3.37 2.39 1.79 3.74 4.24 4.60 5.02 5.27 5.55 5.42 5.67 of which: Domestic services 2.25 0.86 1.08 3.36 3.96 4.37 5.02 5.31 5.58 5.24 5.57 Public services 5.81 0.71 2.02 -1.08 -1.09 -1.29 0.54 -0.89 -1.12 -1.24 -1.20 of which: Fixed and mobile telephone service 4.26 0.35 -0.11 -2.08 -3.29 -5.26 -5.58 -5.74 -5.68 Water 1.37 1.32 7.48 0.80 0.80 0.00 10.29 Rents 4.45 -0.19 0.57 -0.43 -0.33 -0.39 -0.25 0.03 0.17 0.33 0.05

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BCRPData/NEINF20266C4 Items linked to exchange rate, international quotes, and IPM Weight Var% 12 m Var% 12 m Var% 12 m Var% 12 m Base Dec.21 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25 Jun-26 IPC (I+II) 100.00 3.24 3.24 1.97 1.97 1.51 1.51 4.01 4.01 A. Items linked to exchange rate 14.58 1.92 0.27 1.77 0.25 0.25 0.03 0.38 0.05 Household appliances 0.46 0.67 0.00 1.99 0.01 2.57 0.01 0.53 0.00 Personal care items 3.99 4.76 0.19 2.48 0.10 2.22 0.09 1.60 0.07 Cleaning items 1.32 4.65 0.06 1.35 0.02 0.60 0.01 0.20 0.00 Medicinal products 1.62 1.60 0.02 1.51 0.02 -0.13 0.00 0.68 0.01 Vehicle purchases 1.61 0.12 0.00 2.97 0.05 -5.81 -0.09 -6.49 -0.10 Vehicle spare parts 0.08 -2.25 0.00 1.05 0.00 1.46 0.00 0.42 0.00 Vehicle repair 0.28 4.62 0.01 1.15 0.00 3.66 0.01 2.31 0.01 Rents 4.45 -0.19 -0.01 0.57 0.02 -0.33 -0.01 0.05 0.00 Air tickets 0.78 -1.37 -0.01 3.47 0.02 2.81 0.02 9.93 0.07 B. Items linked to international quotes and exchange rate (1+2) 7.99 1.44 0.12 -1.53 -0.12 -5.14 -0.40 0.36 0.03

  1. Linked to food commodities 5.84 3.96 0.25 -2.94 -0.18 -4.38 -0.26 -3.35 -0.19 Chicken meat 2.70 8.04 0.20 2.66 0.07 -3.74 -0.10 -2.48 -0.06 Bread 1.35 0.74 0.01 -0.18 0.00 -0.90 -0.01 -1.34 -0.02 Sugar 0.37 5.41 0.02 -2.30 -0.01 -18.01 -0.08 -12.68 -0.05 Noodles 0.32 3.61 0.02 -8.13 -0.04 -7.48 -0.03 -11.70 -0.05 Oils 0.38 -9.16 -0.04 -9.33 -0.03 -1.29 0.00 -1.99 -0.01 Eggs 0.71 3.30 0.03 -17.73 -0.17 -4.74 -0.04 -1.30 -0.01
  2. Fuels 2.15 -6.36 -0.13 3.32 0.06 -7.62 -0.14 12.37 0.22 Gasoline and lubricants 1.06 -8.38 -0.09 -4.57 -0.04 -8.22 -0.07 22.34 0.20 Gas 0.84 -5.77 -0.04 16.47 0.11 -6.35 -0.05 4.36 0.03 Other fuels 0.02 1.68 0.00 -2.55 0.00 1.61 0.00 4.25 0.00 Natural gas consumption for housing 0.23 2.22 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -10.36 -0.02 -3.76 -0.01 C. Items related to IPM 1.37 1.32 0.02 7.48 0.10 0.80 0.01 10.29 0.14 Water consumption 1.37 1.32 0.02 7.48 0.10 0.80 0.01 10.29 0.14 D. Items related to exchange rate, IPM and quotes 2.62 -7.11 -0.19 -0.72 -0.02 -8.19 -0.19 -4.32 -0.10 Electricity 2.62 -7.11 -0.19 -0.72 -0.02 -8.19 -0.19 -4.32 -0.10 I. Total items linked to exchange rate, IPM and quotes (A+B+C+D) 26.56 0.82 0.22 0.80 0.21 -2.15 -0.55 0.50 0.13 II. Rest 73.44 4.10 3.02 2.37 1.76 2.76 2.06 5.18 3.88 of which Meals outside the home 15.45 6.56 1.03 2.89 0.47 2.68 0.44 4.20 0.69 Transport 9.14 2.89 0.27 3.83 0.36 3.01 0.29 18.28 1.71 Services excluding transport and water 28.44 2.94 0.80 2.65 0.72 2.13 0.58 1.89 0.51 Agricultural perishable foods 5.04 0.69 0.04 -3.22 -0.18 7.39 0.40 12.06 0.69 Contrib. Wtd. Contrib. Wtd. Contrib. Wtd. Contrib. Wtd.

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Trend inflation indicators 8. In June, all trend inflation indicators show monthly variations lower than those of the previous month, while the year-on-year measures of the trimmed mean and reweighted indicators increased compared to May.

BCRPData/NEINF20266G5 4.0 3.2 3.3 3.6 4.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Jun-08 Jun-10 Jun-12 Jun-14 Jun-16 Jun-18 Jun-20 Jun-22 Jun-24 Jun-26 INFLATION (Percentage variation last twelve months) Inflation Reweighted Percentile 63 Trimmed mean Inflation excluding food and energy Maximum Minimum Inflation target range Avg. 01-25 2021 2022 2023 2024 May-26 Jun-26 Inflation: 2.9% 6.43% 8.46% 3.24% 1.97% 3.91% 4.01% Excluding food and energy: 2.3% 3.24% 5.59% 2.90% 2.60% 4.44% 4.46% Reweighted: 2.8% 4.20% 7.58% 4.24% 2.26% 3.21% 3.25% Trimmed mean: 2.9% 4.53% 8.22% 4.21% 2.36% 3.51% 3.59% Percentile 63: 2.9% 4.23% 8.84% 4.80% 2.68% 3.34% 3.31%

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BCRPData/NEINF20266C5 MONTHLY TREND INFLATION INDICATORS Percentage variation monthly IPC Reweighted 1/ Mean Percentile IPC excluding trimmed 2/ 63 3/ food and energy 4/ Dec-21 0.78 0.60 0.63 0.68 0.66 Dec-22 0.79 0.62 0.67 0.77 0.54 Dec-23 0.41 0.24 0.22 0.25 0.36 Dec-24 0.11 0.17 0.18 0.22 0.40 Jan-25 -0.09 0.15 0.20 0.23 -0.15 Feb-25 0.19 0.21 0.25 0.33 0.19 Mar-25 0.81 0.42 0.34 0.25 0.64 Apr-25 0.32 0.18 0.14 0.20 0.14 May-25 -0.06 0.17 0.17 0.21 0.05 Jun-25 0.13 0.17 0.13 0.19 0.07 Jul-25 0.23 0.10 0.09 0.11 0.18 Aug-25 -0.29 0.05 0.15 0.16 0.08 Sep-25 0.01 0.08 0.11 0.13 0.06 Oct-25 -0.10 0.04 0.12 0.09 0.04 Nov-25 0.11 0.10 0.14 0.17 0.06 Dec-25 0.24 0.18 0.24 0.16 0.46 Jan-26 0.10 0.19 0.22 0.27 0.04 Feb-26 0.69 0.26 0.23 0.25 0.36 Mar-26 2.38 1.17 1.31 0.93 2.07 Apr-26 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.60 0.87 May-26 -0.16 0.33 0.25 0.21 0.09 Jun-26 0.23 ↑ 0.21 ↓ 0.21 ↓ 0.17 ↓ 0.08 ↓ 1/ Reweighted: Reduces the weight of items with higher volatility, dividing the original weights of each item by the standard deviation of their variations percentage monthly. 2/ Trimmed mean: Weighted average of the percentage variations of prices located between percentiles 34 and 84. 3/ Percentile 63: Corresponds to the percentage variation of the item located in percentile 63. 4/ IPC excluding food and energy: IPC excluding food, fuels, and electricity.

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BCRPData/NEINF20266C6 YEAR-ON-YEAR TREND INFLATION INDICATORS Percentage variation 12 months IPC Reweighted 1/ Mean Percentile IPC excluding trimmed 2/ 63 3/ food and energy 4/ Dec-21 6.43 4.20 4.53 4.23 3.24 Dec-22 8.46 7.58 8.22 8.84 5.59 Dec-23 3.24 4.24 4.21 4.80 2.90 Dec-24 1.97 2.26 2.36 2.68 2.60 Jan-25 1.85 2.25 2.40 2.68 2.44 Feb-25 1.48 2.11 2.29 2.68 2.11 Mar-25 1.28 2.00 2.10 2.43 1.87 Apr-25 1.65 2.01 2.00 2.32 1.90 May-25 1.69 2.00 1.99 2.29 1.79 Jun-25 1.69 2.03 2.01 2.37 1.69 Jul-25 1.69 1.99 2.00 2.38 1.68 Aug-25 1.11 1.88 2.03 2.34 1.75 Sep-25 1.36 1.88 2.00 2.31 1.81 Oct-25 1.35 1.86 2.02 2.24 1.77 Nov-25 1.37 1.84 2.05 2.33 1.77 Dec-25 1.51 1.86 2.12 2.27 1.83 Jan-26 1.70 1.90 2.13 2.32 2.02 Feb-26 2.21 1.96 2.12 2.24 2.20 Mar-26 3.80 2.72 3.10 2.93 3.65 Apr-26 4.01 3.04 3.43 3.34 4.41 May-26 3.91 3.21 3.51 3.34 4.44 Jun-26 4.01 ↑ 3.25 ↑ 3.59 ↑ 3.31 ↓ 4.46 ↑ 1/ Reweighted: Reduces the weight of items with higher volatility, dividing the original weights of each item by the standard deviation of their variations percentage monthly. 2/ Trimmed mean: Weighted average of the percentage variations of prices located between percentiles 34 and 84. 3/ Percentile 63: Corresponds to the percentage variation of the item located in percentile 63. 4/ IPC excluding food and energy: IPC excluding food, fuels, and electricity.

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  1. In June, tradable products registered a year-on-year variation of 1.70 percent (1.88 percent in May) and non-tradables of 5.02 percent (4.79 percent in May). In the case of tradables, it reflects the deceleration of vehicle fuel and other fresh fruit prices. In the case of non-tradables, it reflects the acceleration of fresh fish, eggs, and leaves or stems prices.

BCRPData/NEINF20266G6 Dispersion indices 10. In June, the IPC dispersion index reached 35.6 percent, lower than that observed in May (36.2 percent). This index has been decreasing since February 2023, the month in which it reached 76 percent. Between January 2001 and June 2026, the value of the dispersion index, considering only the months in which inflation was around 2.0 percent, was 27 percent.

1.70 5.02 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Jun-23 Oct-23 Feb-24 Jun-24 Oct-24 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 Feb-26 Jun-26 TRADABLE AND NON-TRADABLE PRICES (Percentage variation last twelve months) Tradables Non-tradables Maximum Minimum Inflation target range May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Tradables Monthly 0.04 0.38 0.17 -0.52 -0.24 -0.31 -0.19 0.00 0.10 0.26 1.77 0.25 0.21 0.21 12 months 0.93 1.18 1.18 0.63 0.68 0.70 0.48 0.38 0.22 0.18 1.61 1.70 1.88 1.70 Non-tradables Monthly -0.10 0.02 0.26 -0.19 0.12 -0.01 0.24 0.35 0.09 0.88 2.64 0.63 -0.32 0.24 12 months 2.02 1.92 1.91 1.32 1.66 1.64 1.76 2.00 2.35 3.11 4.76 5.02 4.79 5.02

BCRP STUDY NOTES No. 45 - July 2, 2026 14 / 29

BCRPData/NEINF20266G7

  1. The distribution of year-on-year price variations at the item level in the IPC basket shows less dispersion compared to the previous month. This is reflected in the reduction of the 95th percentile and the increase of the 5th percentile. Additionally, the 75th, 50th, and 25th percentiles increased.

Distribution of year-on-year variations of items of