Monetary Program: October 2026

Monetary Program
October 2026
1
9 October 2026

The Board of Directors of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) agreed to maintain the reference interest rate at 4.25 percent. 2 Nominal and Real Reference Interest Rates (in percentage) Source: BCRP.

With inflation expectations.
Oct. 25 Nov. 25 Dec. 25 Jan. 26 Feb. 26 Mar. 26 Apr. 26 May. 26 Jun. 26 Jul. 26 Aug. 26 Sep. 26 Oct. 26 (I) Nominal Rate 4.25 (II) Inflation Expectations 2.16 2.19 2.16 2.13 2.03 2.14 2.52 2.82 2.89 2.83 3.01 3.05 3.09 (III) Real Rate: (I) - (II) 2.09 2.06 2.09 2.12 2.22 2.11 1.73 1.43 1.36 1.42 1.24 1.20 1.16

Real Ex Ante Monetary Policy Interest Rates in Latin America * (in percentage)

Monetary policy rates and expectations updated as of 8 October 2026.
Source: Central Banks.
The reference interest rate has been the lowest among the main countries in the region during the current decade. Brazil 13.75 4.48 9.28 Colombia 12.25 5.34 6.91 Mexico 6.50 3.83 2.67 Chile 4.50 3.30 1.20 Peru 4.25 3.09 1.16 Country Nominal Interest Rate 12-Month Inflation Expectation Real Ex Ante Rate 3

Inflation
(12-month percentage variation)
Source: INEI.
In September, monthly inflation was 0.12 percent and inflation excluding food and energy was 0.07 percent. Year-on-year, inflation increased from 4.4 percent in August to 4.5 percent in September, mainly due to the increase in fuel and electricity prices. Inflation excluding food and energy remained at 4.5 percent, while, excluding the transport category, it remained at 1.8 percent year-on-year and has stayed below 2 percent since April of last year. 4 Jan-25 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26 Aug-26 Sep-26 Inflation -0.09 0.19 0.81 0.32 -0.06 0.13 0.23 -0.29 0.01 -0.10 0.11 0.24 0.10 0.69 2.38 0.52 -0.16 0.23 0.29 0.07 0.12 Excluding food and energy -0.15 0.19 0.64 0.14 0.05 0.07 0.18 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.06 0.46 0.04 0.36 2.07 0.87 0.09 0.08 0.28 0.02 0.07 Food and energy -0.02 0.18 1.01 0.52 -0.18 0.20 0.29 -0.72 -0.04 -0.27 0.17 -0.01 0.16 1.08 2.74 0.12 -0.45 0.40 0.29 0.12 0.17

The deviation of inflation from the target range responds mainly to the rise in fuel prices and their effects on transport costs in March and April.

The transport category is estimated using the report published by INEI.
Source: INEI and BCRP.
Inflation: September 2026 *
(percentage variations)
5
Wtg.
Month 12 months Month 12 months Month 12 months Month 12 months Month 12 months CPI 100.0 0.7 2.2 2.4 3.8 0.5 4.0 0.1 4.4 0.1 4.5

CPI excluding food and energy 55.3 0.4 2.2 2.1 3.7 0.9 4.4 0.0 4.5 0.1 4.5
Excluding transport 46.1 0.4 1.8 0.5 1.5 0.1 1.5 0.1 1.8 0.1 1.8 Goods 17.4 0.1 0.8 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.2 1.2 0.1 1.2 Services 37.9 0.5 2.8 3.0 5.1 1.2 6.1 -0.1 6.0 0.1 6.0 Transport 9.1 0.3 4.1 9.1 14.1 4.0 18.1 -0.4 17.4 -0.1 17.1 Education 8.6 0.2 3.8 2.9 3.4 0.0 3.4 0.0 3.5 0.0 3.5 Water supply 1.4 10.3 10.3 0.0 10.3 0.0 10.3 0.0 10.3 0.0 10.3 Other services 5.0 0.2 2.5 0.2 2.4 0.3 2.5 0.1 2.2 0.3 2.5
Food and energy 44.7 1.1 2.2 2.7 4.0 0.1 3.6 0.1 4.4 0.2 4.6
a. Food and beverages 40.0 1.3 3.3 2.2 4.4 0.1 3.8 -0.2 3.9 0.1 4.0 b. Fuels and electricity 4.8 -1.0 -8.8 8.8 -0.2 0.7 0.9 3.8 8.9 1.3 11.0 Fuels 2.1 1.4 -7.8 20.1 11.8 0.4 13.5 3.7 16.3 2.4 20.4 Vehicle fuels 1.1 2.8 -7.5 30.9 23.3 2.8 28.4 7.3 29.1 4.9 37.2 Domestic gas 0.8 0.0 -8.0 12.5 3.6 -2.9 1.6 -0.7 4.9 -0.5 5.4 Electricity 2.6 -2.8 -9.5 -0.4 -9.7 0.9 -8.9 4.0 3.0 0.4 3.7 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 Aug-26 Sep-26

In September, 39 percent of the CPI categories registered inflation rates higher than 3 percent, similar to the historical average. Dispersion Index and Percentage of CPI Categories with Year-on-Year Price Variation Greater than 3 Percent Source: INEI and BCRP. 6

Source: BCRP.
Twelve-month inflation expectations remained at 3.1 percent in September, slightly above the upper limit of the inflation target range. Meanwhile, 24-month inflation expectations remained at 2.5 percent for the same period. 12- and 24-Month Inflation Expectations of Analysts and the Financial System (in percentage) Macroeconomic Expectations Survey: Inflation (in percentage) Note: 12-month inflation expectations are calculated as the simple average of the 12-month expectations of the financial system and economic analysts. For each of them, an estimate of the 12-month expectation is obtained by weighting the expectation of the current year by the number of months remaining and the expectations of the following year by the number of months left to complete the 12 months. 1/ 20 analysts in July, 21 in August, and 15 in September 2026. 2/ 14 financial companies in July, 14 in August, and 10 in September 2026. 3/ 288 non-financial companies in July, 345 in August, and 278 in September 2026. 4/ 12-month inflation expectations are calculated as the simple average of the 12-month expectations of the financial system and economic analysts. 5/ 24-month inflation expectations are calculated as the simple average of the 24-month expectations of the financial system and economic analysts. 7 31 Jul. 31 Aug. 30 Sep. ECONOMIC ANALYSTS 1/ 2026 3.85 4.00 4.20 2027 2.53 2.60 3.00 2028 2.50 2.35 2.20 FINANCIAL SYSTEM 2/ 2026 3.55 4.00 4.00 2027 2.50 2.55 2.50 2028 2.25 2.45 2.50 NON-FINANCIAL COMPANIES 3/ 2026 3.00 3.00 3.48 2027 2.50 2.50 2.70 2028 2.50 a 12 months 4/ 3.01 3.05 3.09 a 24 months 5/ 2.43 2.46 2.45 Survey conducted on:

Leading indicators of economic activity as of September continue to show good performance. Capital Goods Imports * (real year-on-year % var.) Domestic Value Added Tax (IGV) * (real year-on-year % var.) Durable Consumer Goods Imports * (real year-on-year % var.)

September information is preliminary.
Source: SUNAT, INEI and BCRP.
Domestic Cement Consumption *
(year-on-year % var.)
8

Monetary aggregates, credit, and card transactions continue to show high dynamism. Circulation * (nominal year-on-year % var.)

September information is preliminary. Constant exchange rate.
Excluding gas stations, financial entities, and government.
Source: BCRP, Niubiz and Izipay.
Total Credit
(nominal year-on-year % var.)
Total Liquidity
(nominal year-on-year % var.)
Card Transactions *
(nominal year-on-year % var.)
9

In the Central Bank's survey, current situation indicators registered mixed behavior compared to the previous month, while expectation indicators remained in the optimistic range with some moderation. Source: BCRP. Business Expectations Regarding the Economy and Sector in 3 Months (Diffusion Index) Macroeconomic Expectations Survey Results Source: BCRP. 10

Global risks remain elevated, reflected in greater volatility of financial markets and international oil prices. Furthermore, uncertainty persists regarding tensions in the Middle East, along with other geopolitical risks. Spot Oil Quotation * (USD/Lb.)

Quotation as of 8 October.
Source: Reuters. 11
Price / % Var. Oct. 26*/
Dec. 25
Oct. 26*/
Feb. 26
Oct. 26*/
May. 26
Oct. 26*/
Sep. 26
WTI (Spot) 59.3 36.5 4.7 1.2
WTI (Fut Dec-26) 59.4 42.4 15.9 2.6
Brent (Spot) 117.2 91.5 45.3 12.9
Brent (Fut Dec-26) 73.2 51.9 23.9 6.4

Despite this, global economic activity growth prospects remain positive, and terms of trade continue to favor the Peruvian economy. Terms of Trade (Index 100 = 2007) Source: BCRP.

Corresponds to the annual average.
Projection from the September 2026 Inflation Report.
Source: BCRP.
Terms of Trade *
(percentage variation)
12

It is projected that both year-on-year inflation and inflation excluding food and energy will return to the target range and settle around 2 percent in the projection horizon, as the effects of supply shocks affecting inflation dissipate. However, there is a risk that the El Niño phenomenon and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may have more persistent effects on inflation. Source: ENFEN. Estimated Probability of the Occurrence of the El Niño Phenomenon (Zone 1+2) – 28 September (Percentage) 13

In its last statement, NOAA announced that there is a probability greater than 90 percent of a very strong (extraordinary) event during the autumn and early winter of the Northern Hemisphere (between September 2026 and January 2027). In the fourth quarter of 2026, there is a 75 percent probability that the magnitude of the event will be the largest since records began (1950). Source: NOAA Estimated Probability of the Occurrence of the El Niño Phenomenon in the Central Pacific – 10 September (Percentage) 3 18 55 3 20 48 35 4 19 45 30 8 23 3 2 7 21 39 27 4 77 97 98 93 75 39 5 ASO SON OND NDE DEF EFM FMA MAM AMJ Neutral Weak Moderate Strong Very Strong Difference with respect to the last statement (pp) ASO SON OND NDE DEF EFM FMA MAM Moderate -1 0 0 -1 -2 -2 3 -2 Strong -1 -4 -3 -2 -2 1 -2 -3 Very Strong 2 4 3 3 5 4 -1 0 14

The Board remains especially attentive to new information on inflation and its determinants, including the evolution of underlying inflation, inflation expectations, economic activity, and the duration of supply shocks, in order to make adjustments to the monetary policy position in the short term. The Board reaffirms its commitment to taking necessary actions to ensure the return of inflation to the target range within the projection horizon. Inflation Projection: 2026 - 2027 (percentage variation of the last twelve months)

Executed as of September 2026.
Source: September 2026 Inflation Report.
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Monetary Program
October 2026
16
9 October 2026