The Riksbank Maintains the Countercyclical Buffer Value at 2 Percent

Postal address: 103 37 Stockholm, Visiting address: Brunkebergstorg 11 Telephone: 08-787 00 00, Web: riksbank.se DECISION DATE: 2026-09-10 DEPARTMENT: Financial Stability Department CASE NUMBER: 2026-01130 HANDLING CLASS: O P E N Countercyclical Buffer Value (announced on September 11, 2026 at 09:30) The Riksbank's Decision The Riksbank decides that the countercyclical buffer value shall be 2 percent. The buffer value of 2 percent, which began to apply on June 22, 2023, shall thus continue to apply. Reasons for the Decision Legal Basis According to Chapter 3, Section 1 of the Act (2022:1568) on the Sveriges Riksbank, the Riksbank Act, the Riksbank shall, without prejudice to the price stability objective, contribute to the financial system being stable and efficient. According to Chapter 7, Section 1 of the Act (2014:966) on Capital Buffers, the Buffer Act, the Riksbank shall calculate a countercyclical buffer guide value for each quarter, and, if necessary, determine or change a countercyclical buffer value. According to Chapter 7, Section 2 of the Buffer Act, the Riksbank shall follow Articles 136.2 and 136.3 of the Capital Requirements Directive when assessing the appropriate buffer value and calculating the buffer guide value. This means that the Riksbank shall assess the degree of cyclical systemic risks and, among other things, consider the credit gap, which refers to the deviation between total private debt as a share of GDP and its long-term trend. Current Buffer Value Contributes to Resilience in an Unsettled World The uncertain global situation has for a longer period entailed elevated risks to financial stability in Sweden. The war in the Middle East continues to affect the Decision 2 (3) O P E N global economy, but the economic effects have so far been less than initially feared. Interest rates on longer-term government bonds have continued to rise in many countries, partly due to expectations of higher policy rates and deteriorating public finances. Despite higher market interest rates and continued geopolitical unrest, global financial conditions have been approximately unchanged in recent months. At the same time, risk appetite in financial markets remains high. Risk premiums on several financial assets are at relatively low levels, and global equity markets have performed strongly, although they are characterized by volatility, partly linked to the implementation of AI and valuations of AI companies. High asset valuations, together with expectations regarding AI's potential, have contributed to several large AI-related companies being able to raise significant amounts of capital, not least through new loans. Overall, there are somewhat more signs of increased risk build-up in the global financial system compared to the spring. The Swedish economy continues to strengthen. 1 GDP growth in the second quarter has been stronger than the Riksbank's latest forecast in June. In addition, sentiment among both households and companies has improved significantly during the summer. Developments in the labor market were somewhat weaker than expected in the second quarter, and overall, the assessment is that there are still available resources. The Swedish economy has so far proven resilient to unfavorable events in the outside world, and there are fundamentally good conditions for continued strong economic growth where household and corporate incomes are strengthened. However, the war in the Middle East makes the economic outlook remain uncertain. Households and companies have good access to financing and continue to face relatively favorable lending conditions. Bank lending to both households and companies continues to grow somewhat faster, but growth rates are still at moderate levels. Corporate borrowing via the bond market, especially in foreign currency, has developed more weakly than their borrowing from Swedish banks. Swedish banks show signs of a continued high willingness to increase their lending to companies, which could contribute to higher lending growth going forward. For households, credit growth aligns relatively well with the development of housing prices, which have continued to grow somewhat faster during the year. In addition, there are signs that households are choosing higher loan-to-value ratios after the easing of borrower-based macroprudential measures, which in the long run could mean that more and more households become vulnerable. Furthermore, a historically high proportion of households have variable-rate mortgages. In the second quarter of 2026, the combined indebtedness of households and companies rose slightly in relation to GDP and incomes. The private sector's total debt then amounted to just over 145 percent of GDP, which is just over 1 percentage point lower 1 See Monetary Policy Update, August 2026, Sveriges Riksbank. Decision 3 (3) O P E N than the corresponding period last year. The credit gap, which shows how much total debt in relation to GDP deviates from its long-term trend, remains clearly negative but rose slightly further to -18.2 percent, and the buffer guide value therefore remained at 0 percent. 2 The Riksbank's indicator for cyclical systemic risk decreased slightly in the second quarter, partly due to lower interest rate ratios for households and companies. The indicator is thus still at a low level and shows limited signs of risk build-up. 3 Overall, developments indicate that there is currently no clear build-up of cyclical systemic risks linked to the private sector's loans in Sweden. The Riksbank's assessment of cyclical systemic risks in Sweden is thus largely unchanged compared to that made in Financial Stability Report 2026:1 from May. 4 However, developments in the outside world entail risks, which could affect Sweden if they materialize. The Swedish banking system generally has good resilience, mainly because banks are profitable, have good liquidity, and significant capital buffers. Capital requirements are also not considered to limit banks' room for maneuver, which suggests that banks have the capacity to maintain credit supply to the real economy. The Riksbank applies a positive neutral level for the countercyclical buffer value during periods when cyclical systemic risks are not building up or are elevated. The current buffer level, which corresponds to the positive neutral level, provides conditions to lower the requirement if needed, should the Swedish banking system be more significantly affected by uncertain global developments or other disturbances. Since there is currently no clear build-up of cyclical systemic risks in Sweden, while the banking system shows good resilience, the Riksbank collectively assesses that the countercyclical buffer value shall remain unchanged at the Riksbank's assessed neutral level of 2 percent. The decision was made by the Executive Board (Governor Erik Thedéen, First Deputy Governor Aino Bunge, and Deputy Governors Per Jansson, Anna Seim, and Göran Hjelm) after presentation by advisor Maria Sjödin and senior economist Niclas Olsén Ingefeldt. In the final processing, the Head of the Financial Stability Department Olof Sandstedt and acting Deputy Head of Department Mattias Erlandsson participated. The Riksbank also consulted with the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority prior to this decision. 2 The credit gap is calculated according to the Basel Committee's standard method and the buffer guide value is calculated based on the credit gap. See BCBS (2010) “Guidance for national authorities operating the countercyclical capital buffer”, December 2010, BCBS. According to this method, a credit gap below 2 percent means that the buffer guide value amounts to 0 percent. 3 The indicator for cyclical systemic risk is based on the method in Lang et al. (2019), “Anticipating the bust: a new cyclical systemic risk indicator to assess the likelihood and severity of financial crises”, ECB Occasional Paper Series, No 219. However, the indicator has been adapted to better reflect Swedish conditions and Swedish data. 4 For a broader description, see Financial Stability Report 2026:1, May 2026, Sveriges Riksbank.