The Riksbank's Business Survey: "There was concern before the summer, but then it turned around"

"It feels like there's still some tailwind"
The economic situation has improved since the May survey. At that time, companies expressed concern that the war in the Middle East would delay an already protracted recovery. But despite the war continuing, the economic effects have not been particularly large. Companies talk about "people no longer feeling the same concern" and that "most companies seem to be handling it quite well." The recovery that companies experienced before the outbreak of the war has gained new momentum, and they now assess, for the first time since September 2022, that the economic situation is above its historical average, see Diagram 1. Many see the war in the Middle East as another factor in the uncertain environment they have learned to navigate: "The new normal is probably being able to handle the abnormal as normal." Risks to economic development have subsided, and they are looking more brightly at the future again. This is also reflected in companies' increasing investment plans, see Diagram 2. Economic development is considered to have "a bit of a tailwind" right now, while several emphasize that it is largely driven by structural changes leading to increased investments in defense, data centers, and the energy transition (see "Structural changes boost the economy," p. 5). Diagram 1. Economic Situation and Economic Risks Net figures (left scale) and index figures (right scale) Note. The index figures show a standardized value (mean = 100 and standard deviation = 10) of the net figures for companies that state that the current economic situation is good or bad and those that state that the economic situation in six months will be better or worse. The red line, the economic situation in six months, is shifted forward two quarters. The bars show the net figures for companies that state that the risks for economic development are currently greater or smaller than normal.

"A very good July"
In retail and hospitality, most companies report that demand has been strong during the summer. Summer sales also received a boost from increased tourism from abroad, mainly from neighboring countries: "You notice that there are larger tourist flows to Sweden now." This has particularly benefited hotels, but also restaurants and retail. The travel and airline industry, which clearly noticed weaker demand when the war in the Middle East broke out, also had a good summer: "In the middle of summer, it turned around, and we have a positive trend for both the concluding part of the summer and for the winter." The fact that domestic consumption also improved during the summer is explained by "people being frugal in everyday life but willing to spend on their leisure and holidays." Companies also highlight that households spend more in connection with special events and activities. A respondent notes: "People are spending a little more money but still very consciously." Just as in May, daily grocery retail reports that sales have increased due to the temporary VAT reduction on food. They see that the VAT reduction has also led consumers to choose premium products to a greater extent, which has increased the average receipt. The restaurant industry also notices the VAT reduction through slightly more take-away orders. "To a greater extent than before, there's a tailwind" Most in retail and hospitality believe that household demand has strengthened beyond holiday-related effects. They highlight, among other things, that "there is a different interest in regular prices so that you don't have to entice customers to buy with discounts." A respondent in electronics retail notes that "we can see that what has had a negative development before is now growing, for example, white goods." Several describe that there is "some form of brightening" of underlying demand. There is therefore more widespread optimism about consumption development now than in May. But companies continue to express themselves with some caution about the coming six months. "Consumers have just started to come back a little more, they are probably still easily scared," says a respondent.

Diagram 2. Companies' overall response patterns Index figures Note. The answers to the questions are placed along the "spokes" of the diagram, where an index figure closer to the center is worse. Historical averages are calculated from the date when the respective question began to be asked. The designation -3m means the last three months, +3m means the next three months, and +6m means the next six months. Increased economic risks and discounts imply deterioration and thus lower index figures. Increased costs are reflected in a lower index figure. The question about inventory size is answered only by the manufacturing industry (finished goods inventory) and retail (merchandise inventory). Decreased inventory size implies a higher index figure. The questions about order intake are answered only by the manufacturing and construction industries. For questions about sales prices, the construction industry only answers the question about sales prices in twelve months (+12m). The answers to the other questions in the diagram come from all companies in the survey. "A structural upturn in demand" Since May, the economic situation has also improved somewhat for companies selling to other companies, which is partly due to increasing production volumes in industry. Overall, demand from the USA is described as strong, while demand in Europe "plods along" and is more subdued in Asia. Parts of the automotive industry are experiencing increased order intake and stronger European demand. However, the economic situation is still relatively weak for the timber and pulp industry, and they do not see any turnaround in the near future. Structural changes in society contribute to certain business areas within industry performing very well. Demand is strong and growing for products used in the defense industry and for data centers. "There we have more work than we can take," says a company leader. Investments in the green transition, such as renewable energy, are also highlighted as something that drives demand. Several mention that they see good business opportunities linked to the transition going forward. Service companies with corporate clients confirm that the industrial economy is doing better and that the defense industry, in particular, serves as an important driving force. "Everything that has to do with building our sovereignty as a country, defense facilities, infrastructure, energy investments, and rare earth metals is going up," says a company leader. Structural changes boost the economy Companies are now clear that structural changes in society are affecting their view of economic development. In September 2025, companies did not make a big deal of defense investments; a representative from the industry then said that "defense investments are noticeable, but it doesn't turn the ship." A year later, several state that investments in defense and preparedness are one of the primary drivers behind stronger demand. Construction and service companies that have
industry as customers also notice strong demand from the defense industry and its subcontractors. Others are indirectly affected: "The rearmament that is now taking place also spills over to us." Others see the rearmament as an opportunity for new revenues: "We are starting to invest in the defense industry, critical societal activities, police, fire trucks, railways, and so on." A company leader in construction explains, however, that there is a certain inertia, and despite investments in both infrastructure and defense, it does not lead to sharp shifts in demand. In May, the industry spoke of strong demand linked to the expansion of data centers. In August, a respondent notes: "It feels like a shift has occurred here during 2026." Now, the service sector and the construction industry also mention that they are affected by, for example, "a lot" of data centers being built in the Nordics. Several companies also highlight that the effects spill over to them. A respondent says that "if industry as a whole benefits, then we also benefit indirectly from it." Parallel to defense and data centers, many in industry and construction mention that the green transition is driving demand. In September 2024, companies described how the green transition risked losing momentum due to a weaker economy and a greater focus on costs. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has contributed to the issue becoming relevant again. "If we look at renewable energy, it is a strong market and driven by the conflict in the Middle East," says a respondent. The fact that companies also need to adapt to meet their emission targets by 2030 contributes to increased demand for certain products. For example, demand for electric cars and products that increase energy efficiency has risen.

"Everything else is good except the housing market" Large construction companies see continued good order intake in civil engineering, infrastructure, and construction other than housing, for example, public construction. Construction companies point to minor improvements in demand for new housing but emphasize that it is from low levels and "it's not like you feel that things are really starting to pick up now." For external orders, they describe that "one or two housing projects appear occasionally, which they didn't a year ago." For construction companies' own housing construction, it is primarily considered motivated to start their own projects in good locations in larger cities where demand exists. "We are streamlining and quite restrictive when making replacement recruitments" Many companies talk about ongoing streamlining of operations and being cautious with recruitment. Several believe that new technology, such as AI, makes them question to a greater extent whether they need to make certain recruitments. "If someone quits, maybe you check – can we manage without replacing them, or should we hire a consultant initially and see? Can we manage without this?" But just as before, companies believe that the use of AI has not yet had any major effects on the size of the workforce. Over the past three years, companies have described making successive reductions in their workforce. Now, fewer companies plan to cut staff. According to staffing companies, the labor market is starting to move, which is due to increased demand, especially from the defense industry and its subcontractors. Staffing companies also believe that demand will increase further, and they expect "quite strong" employment growth in Sweden going forward.

Tariffs: "One can live with these 15 percent reasonably well" US import tariffs continue to drive costs for exporting companies but do not create uncertainty in the same way as before. This allows companies to work and plan based on the prevailing tariff rates. "These 15 percent have simply been largely accepted," explains one respondent, while another states that "it's nothing we see as a big problem right now." Several companies are also starting to receive refunds for tariffs that have been invalidated in US courts.
Instead, a broader discussion emerges about other tariffs and trade barriers introduced in the past year. 2 Overall, new tariff rules have accelerated the change in trade patterns that began already with the pandemic. Regionalization is a recurring theme where several companies describe how they have changed sourcing or moved production, either to the USA or Europe, to reduce the effects of tariffs or due to other trade restrictions against China. Changed trade patterns, in turn, make it difficult for transport companies to plan. For example, when exports increase before new tariffs come into force. This affects transport lead times, available capacity, and prices. The war in the Middle East "drives up costs" Companies report that costs have increased somewhat in recent months, see Diagram 3. Just as in May, they state that the war in the Middle East has primarily driven up fuel prices, which affects companies' transport costs. But high energy costs also affect production and purchasing costs for some companies. It is primarily those that sell to other companies that report that the increased costs have already passed through. Material costs are increasing because world market prices are still high for certain raw materials and metals. A company leader believes that "metal prices are higher than they have been for a very long time, especially precious metals, but also base metals." Companies believe that this is partly due to a reduced supply, which is partly explained by the war. Several, however, reason in terms that costs "are not continuing to accelerate, it seems to be leveling off anyway," but at a higher level than before. A company leader says that "we are preparing for freight prices to remain this high, but hope they don't." 2 The EU introduced new increased tariffs on steel on July 1, 2026. From July 1 this year, new rules also apply to the import of low-value goods, where tariff exemption for goods under 150 euros has been removed. The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) came into full force on January 1, 2026. This is a way for the EU to price imported carbon-intensive goods, such as aluminum, iron, steel, cement, etc., in the same way as goods produced within the EU.

Diagram 3. Average unit costs, last three months, total Index figures Note. The index figures show a standardized value (mean = 100 and standard deviation = 10) of the net figures for companies that state that costs have increased or decreased.
"There is a shortage of certain goods"
The expansion of data centers reduces the availability of memory cards and certain types of chips, which drives up prices. "They have gone up almost day by day" and are expected to "continue to be very high," says a respondent. "Total demand is greater than availability, and that will probably remain for at least another year." Some companies believe that the shortage is "not a huge problem yet" but affects certain business areas and product categories. But "if we get an even worse shortage of components," costs are expected to increase even more, a respondent elaborates. Electronics retail confirms this picture and sees prices of products with memory cards rising. According to companies, there is also a certain shortage of other goods and materials. For example, aluminum is mentioned, whose supply has been affected by the war. A respondent describes that "there is far too little aluminum than Europe actually needs." Some also highlight that they are generally holding larger inventories to prevent delivery disruptions: "we are buffering for uncertainty." At the same time, the shortage is generally reported to be manageable, and the freight situation is "a breeze compared to what it was after the pandemic." "It is rather that suppliers are signaling increases" In retail and hospitality, there is a lag in purchasing costs due to longer lead times. Cost increases are not expected to take effect until the end of the year. Suppliers have signaled higher prices for, for example, packaging and textiles in the autumn. In addition to higher purchasing costs, several companies point out that the exchange rate will contribute to driving up costs. The previous "tailwind" from a weakened US dollar has subsided. However, it will take time before the exchange rate change affects them, as they make seasonal purchases. The cost situation is generally considered manageable. A representative from retail says: "We believe that the conditions for avoiding high-price inflation on clothing look better now." Another states: "The snapshot as it is now is a relatively sustainable situation. It's not like we are losing a lot of profit because of this." "We simply have to try to raise prices" Companies selling to other companies are raising sales prices in the short term, and several are also planning further price increases, see Diagram 4. Many have been able to pass on cost increases continuously and believe that there is some understanding for the price increases among their customers. A company leader states that "we can handle it, it's about us simply having to try to raise prices." Diagram 4. Drivers behind pricing, next twelve months Net shares (left scale) and index figures (right scale) Note. The bars on the left scale show the net of responses to the question of whether the factor will affect prices upwards or downwards in the coming year. A bar above zero means that the factor contributes to rising prices going forward, and below zero that it contributes to
falling prices. The index figures on the right scale show a standardized value (mean = 100 and standard deviation = 10) of the net figures for companies that answer the question of whether sales prices will be raised or lowered over the next twelve months. Companies selling to households refer to retail and companies primarily selling services to households. The item "Costs" includes purchasing costs, labor costs, energy costs, costs related to climate change, and costs for green/sustainable transition. The item "Other" includes, among other things, available capacity and productivity development. Price plans, however, are clearly falling in retail and hospitality, see Diagram 4. This is explained by daily grocery retail not planning to raise its sales prices. The industry continues to focus on pricing after the temporary VAT reduction on food and is streamlining operations, which is partly expected to counteract their upcoming cost increases. Other retail and hospitality, however, generally plan to raise sales prices. Retail plans to pass on some of its higher costs to customers, but they believe it will not be possible to pass on everything due to competition. "At some point, we also have to pass it on to the consumer, but that's not what you want to do in the first instance." Strengthened household demand also makes it possible to raise prices by reducing discounts. A somewhat larger proportion of companies than before the summer plan to raise prices more often and more than normal. They explain this, among other things, by the generally high cost pressure and volatile energy and fuel prices. Most, however, respond that the size and frequency of price increases are normal, see Diagram 5. Diagram 5. Size and frequency of planned price change Percent Note. The diagrams show the proportion of companies that have responded that they have raised sales prices in the current quarter, the coming quarter, or the coming twelve months. The questions began to be asked in autumn 2022.

The Business Survey's economic indicator rises The overall result of the survey is shown in the business survey's economic indicator, see Diagram 6. After a slight decrease in the indicator in May, it has risen again and shows a stronger sentiment in August. The indicator is now above its historical average and is at its highest level since February 2022. It is primarily companies' investment plans, industrial production, and retail and hospitality sales that contribute to the indicator's rise.
Diagram 6. The Business Survey's economic indicator and GDP Index figures and quarterly change in percent Note. The economic indicator is a summary measure of the business survey questions.3 It is developed using principal component analysis. The index figures show a standardized value (mean = 0 and standard deviation = 1) for the economic indicator. A positive (negative) value indicates that the economic situation is better (worse) than the historical average. Since the business survey is conducted three times a year, the economic indicator has been interpolated for intermediate quarters. The GDP series is seasonally adjusted. Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank.

About the Riksbank's Business Survey
The Riksbank's Business Survey aims to reflect how prices and the economy are developing within the manufacturing industry, construction industry, trade, and parts of the service sector. Since a few actors account for a very large part of the Swedish business sector, relatively few interviews can provide information about large parts of the business sector. Many of the interviewed companies also convey information about other parts of the business sector through their contact points with, among others, small and medium-sized enterprises. Since the survey's inception in 2007, over 300 companies have participated. In the surveys conducted during the period 2007-2019, approximately 30 companies were interviewed each year in February, and approximately 45 companies in May and November. The interviews were conducted by Riksbank staff during a visit of about one hour. However, due to the pandemic and its effects on the economy, the Riksbank conducted a total of eight rounds of telephone and video calls with companies and industry organizations during 2020. Currently, between 30 and 50 companies and industry organizations are interviewed on each occasion. From May 2022, some of the interviews are again conducted in the form of visits. The interviews are generally conducted with individuals in the companies' management teams. The conversations allow companies to elaborate on their answers, and the interviewer can ask in-depth follow-up questions. Specific questions are asked from time to time about current issues in monetary policy. The response rate for the survey is high, often around 95 percent. The survey results are presented in a report published on the Riksbank's website, usually three times a year. The report for August 2026 presents the results of interviews with 40 companies and industry organizations, which were mainly conducted during the period August 20-31. Unless otherwise stated, the diagrams in the report show companies' responses weighted by each company's number of employees in Sweden. The index figures in the diagrams reflect ups and downs in response patterns well. These responses are then combined with the companies' reflections during the interviews. A more detailed description of the survey can be found on the Riksbank's website: Hokkanen, Melin and Nilson (2012), "The Riksbank's Business Survey – a rapid economic indicator", Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy 2012:3. The Riksbank's Business Survey – a rapid economic indicator

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