2026 Q3: Quarterly decision of the National Bank of Belgium on the countercyclical buffer rate (1 July 2026): 1.25%

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Quarterly decision of the National Bank of Belgium on the countercyclical buffer rate for 2026Q3: 1.25 % Pursuant to Art. 5 §2 Annex IV to the Banking Law, the National Bank of Belgium has decided to keep the countercyclical buffer rate for exposures in Belgium at 1.25 %. Justification

1. The countercyclical capital buffer is a macroprudential instrument designed to mitigate cyclical
   systemic risks and to counter pro-cyclicality in lending. Its objective is to support the sustainable provision of credit through the cycle by strengthening the resilience of banks. In particular, capital buffers are imposed whenever there is an increase in cyclical systemic risks (i.e. with excessive growth in lending), so that these additional requirements can be relaxed when the cycle turns and the risks start to decline. If risks emerge – in a situation of financial stress for instance – a decision can be taken to release the buffer instantly in order to give the banks some extra breathing space and thus put them in a better position to absorb losses and keep up their level of lending when the economic and financial environment is vulnerable. The countercyclical buffer rate, expressed as a percentage of banks’ risk-weighted assets, is generally between 0 and 2.5 %, but can be set higher when justified by the underlying risk. It should be noted that the countercyclical capital buffer is only one of the macroprudential instruments available to the National Bank of Belgium for achieving its mission of contributing to the stability of the financial system.
2. Pursuant to Article 5 of Annex IV to the Law of 25 April 2014 on the legal status and supervision of
   credit institutions, the National Bank of Belgium sets each quarter the countercyclical buffer rate applicable to credit exposures to counterparties located on Belgian territory on the basis of one or more reference indicators that reflect the credit cycle and the risks stemming from excessive credit growth in Belgium, and that account for the specific elements of the national economy. These indicators shall include the deviation of the credit-to-GDP ratio from its long-term trend (the credit￾to-GDP gap), accounting for the change in volumes of credit granted on Belgian territory and the evolution of Belgian GDP, the recommendations issued by the ESRB, and any other variable that the National Bank of Belgium deems relevant to capture cyclical systemic risk.
3. The National Bank of Belgium sets the countercyclical buffer rate pursuant to its policy strategy
   regarding the countercyclical capital buffer. 1 In line with the Basel III framework and the ESRB Recommendation of 18 June 2014 on guidance for setting countercyclical buffer rates, the quarterly decision on the countercyclical buffer rate is partially based on a ‘buffer guide’ derived from the credit-to-GDP gap. 2 Given the specific features of the domestic financial system and statistical properties of the credit series monitored, the National Bank of Belgium sets the credit-to-GDP variable on the basis of resident bank loans. The quarterly decision on the countercyclical buffer rate also takes into account additional macrofinancial indicators, including broader credit measures.
4. On 1 October 2025, the National Bank of Belgium decided to adjust its macroprudential policy in
5. On the one hand, the reduction in vulnerabilities in mortgage loan portfolios justified the
   discontinuation of macroprudential capital requirements specifically for these portfolios, thereby also allowing macroprudential policy to be simplified. On the other, given the uncertainty surrounding the impact of international geopolitical developments, the Bank deemed it appropriate to increase the countercyclical capital buffer, which has a broad scope and applies uniformly to all banks with regard to their exposures in Belgium. This buffer is a temporary reserve of additional capital intended to strengthen banks’ capacity to cope with a potential widespread increase in loan repayment difficulties whilst continuing to support borrowers. 1 "Setting the countercyclical buffer rate in Belgium: a policy strategy". 2 The buffer guide is the result of the credit-to-GDP gap being mapped into a benchmark buffer rate, as specified in the ESRB Recommendation of 18 June 2014 on guidance for setting countercyclical buffer rates. The benchmark buffer rate equals 0 % for credit-to-GDP gap levels up to 2 percentage points. When the credit-to-GDP gap exceeds 2 percentage points, the benchmark buffer rate increases linearly, reaching its maximum level of 2.5 % for credit-to-GDP gap levels of 10 percentage points and higher.

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5. In practical terms, the capital buffer dedicated to risks in mortgage portfolios, which currently stands
at around €1.4 billion, will be abolished on 1 July 2026. At that time, the amount of the countercyclical buffer will increase from €2.7 billion (a rate of 1%) to approximately €3.4 billion (a rate of 1.25%). From 1 July 2026, the macroprudential capital requirements will thus be both simplified and lowered, falling from approximately €4.1 billion to €3.4 billion. This reduction, of around €700 million, should be viewed in the context of the total capital requirements applicable to the Belgian banking sector (approximately €60 billion), whose overall resilience therefore remains high. Furthermore, the level of macroprudential requirements remains significant, which is welcome given that, unlike other prudential requirements, these buffers can be rapidly released by the Bank, for example in the event of a major economic shock. This would immediately help banks absorb the shock in an orderly manner whilst supporting borrowers.
6. On 16 June 2026, the Bank has decided to maintain the buffer rate at 1.25% for the third quarter
of 2026. The rate is determined, in particular, by developments in the credit and financial cycles. These cycles are trending upwards, which could signal the need to raise the rate of the countercyclical capital buffer. However, the conflict in the Middle East is generating a very high degree of uncertainty and could weigh on the dynamism of the financial cycle in the future, while more adverse scenarios cannot be ruled out. This therefore justifies adopting a wait-and-see approach and maintaining the countercyclical buffer rate at its present level. At this time, a rate of 1.25% is deemed sufficient to ensure, in combination with other prudential requirements, the resilience of the Belgian banking sector.
7. Countercyclical capital buffer decisions are revisited each quarter, in accordance with European
regulations and the National Bank of Belgium’s macroprudential powers under the 2014 Banking Act.

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Table 1: Key indicators 1
Variable Unit Latest period Value
Non-financial private sector credit cycle (resident bank loans) Preferred credit-to-GDP gap % GDP 2026 Q1 -5.3 Households % GDP 2026 Q1 -5.2 Non-financial corporations % GDP 2026 Q1 -0.1 CCyB guide related to preferred credit gap 2 % RWA 2026 Q1 0.0 Standardised credit-to-GDP gap % GDP 2025 Q4 -30.3 CCyB guide related to standardized credit gap 2 % RWA 2025 Q4 0.0 Bank loan growth y-o-y % 2026 M04 3.3 Households y-o-y % 2026 M04 3.3 Non-financial corporations y-o-y % 2026 M04 3.9 p.m. Credit-to-GDP ratio 3 % GDP 2026 Q1 77.5 Non-financial private sector resilience Debt-to-GDP ratio % GDP 2025 Q4 117.4 Households % GDP 2025 Q4 56.8 Non-financial corporations % GDP 2025 Q4 60.5 Net financial assets % GDP 2025 Q4 129.9 Financial and assets markets Equity prices, nominal (Euro Stoxx 50) y-o-y % 2026 M04 17.2 Price-earnings ratio (Euro Stoxx 50) 4 – 2026 M04 17.3 House prices, nominal y-o-y % 2025 Q3 3.9 House prices, real y-o-y % 2025 Q3 1.7 10-year government bond yield % points/y 2026 M04 3.6 Bank lending rate on mortgage loans to households % points/y 2026 M04 3.3 Bank lending rate on loans to non-financial corporations % points/y 2026 M04 3.7 Banking sector resilience CET 1 capital ratio % 2026 Q1 15.0 Equity-to-total assets ratio % 2026 Q1 7.7 Loan-to-deposit ratio % 2026 Q1 96.4 External imbalances Current account % GDP 2025 Q4 -1.9 Net international investment position % GDP 2025 Q4 52.1 Asset quality NPL ratio Belgian non-financial corporations % total loans 2026 Q1 3.50 Belgian households % total loans 2026 Q1 1.27 Forbearance ratio Belgian non-financial corporations % total loans 2026 Q1 1.80 Belgian households % total loans 2026 Q1 0.82 Loan loss ratio 5 Consolidated, including interbank loans b.p. 2026 22.4 Non-consolidated, excluding interbank loans b.p. 2026 19.4 Sources: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, NBB. 1 Monthly averages for daily data. Data are shown at the end of quarter (March, June, September, December) or for the latest month available. 2 CCyB guides are expressed in percentage of risk-weighted assets. 3 Outstanding amounts of loans granted by resident monetary financial institutions to households and non-financial corporations, including those securitized, in percentage of GDP.

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4 Price earnings (P/E) ratio is a trailing (12 months) P/E ratio.
5 The loan loss ratio is the net flow of new impairments for credit losses, expressed as a percentage of the total stock of loans (one basis point is one-hundredth of one per cent).

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STATISTICAL ANNEX
Sources: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, NBB.

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STATISTICAL ANNEX (cont.)
Sources: Haver Analytics, NBB.

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STATISTICAL ANNEX (cont.)
Source: NBB.