Monetary Program August 2026: BCRP Maintains Reference Interest Rate at 4.25%

INFORMATIVE NOTE
AUGUST 2026 MONETARY PROGRAM
BCRP MAINTAINED THE REFERENCE INTEREST RATE AT 4.25%

1. The Board of Directors of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) agreed to maintain the reference interest rate at 4.25 percent.

2. The decision to maintain the reference rate took into account the following information and projections:

i. In July, monthly inflation was 0.29 percent and inflation excluding food and energy was 0.28 percent. This result was explained mainly by the increase in prices of some foods and by the increase in national transport fares due to higher seasonal demand for National Holidays. On a year-on-year basis, total inflation increased from 4.0 percent in June to 4.1 percent in July, while inflation excluding food and energy increased from 4.5 to 4.6 percent in the same period. This deviation from the target range responds mainly to the rise in fuels and their effects on transport costs in March and April. Excluding the transport item, underlying inflation stood at 1.7 percent year-on-year, and has remained below 2 percent since April of last year.

ii. Twelve-month inflation expectations increased from 2.8 percent in June to 3.0 percent in July, at the upper limit of the inflation target range.

iii. It is projected that both year-on-year inflation and inflation excluding food and energy will return to the target range and be around 2 percent in the projection horizon, as the effects of supply shocks that affected inflation dissipate. However, there is a risk that a more intense El Niño Phenomenon and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may have more persistent effects on inflation.

iv. Leading indicators of economic activity through July continue to show good performance. In the Central Bank survey, most current situation indicators recorded an improvement compared to the previous month, while most expectation indicators showed a significant increase, all being in the optimistic range.

v. Global risks have recently moderated due to the relative normalization of supplies in the hydrocarbon market. However, uncertainty persists regarding the outcome of negotiations in the Middle East, which adds to other geopolitical and commercial risks. In this environment, the favorable growth prospects for world economic activity continue to be positive, and terms of trade remain favorable for the Peruvian economy.

3. The Board remains especially attentive to new information on inflation and its determinants, including the evolution of underlying inflation, inflation expectations, economic activity, and the duration of supply shocks, in order to make, if necessary, adjustments in the monetary policy stance. The Board reaffirms its commitment to taking the necessary actions to guarantee the return of inflation to the target range in the projection horizon.

4. In the same session, the Board agreed on the following interest rates for BCRP operations in national currency with the financial system under the counter modality.

i. Overnight deposits: 2.25 percent annually.

ii. Direct securities and currency repurchase operations, and Monetary Regulation Credits:

i) 4.75 percent annually for the first 10 operations in the last 3 months; and ii) the interest rate set by the Monetary and Exchange Operations Committee for operations additional to these 10 operations in the last 3 months. Furthermore, the Monetary and Exchange Operations Committee may establish higher rates based on the amount of the operations.

5. The next Board session in which the Monetary Program will be evaluated is scheduled for September 10, 2026.

Lima, August 13, 2026