2026-06-30

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Geopolitical Risk Affected Bank Lending in Sweden

Sveriges Riksbank staff member Cristina Cella analyzes how Russian aggression in Ukraine influenced Swedish bank credit supply using loan-level data. The study finds that while overall credit expanded, banks reallocated lending away from energy-intensive and financially vulnerable firms. Banks with higher pre-invasion exposure to geopolitical risk tightened lending more aggressively than their less exposed peers.

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Sweden

Sveriges Riksbank

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