RegAlertReport · NBE · 1 Sep 2023
National Bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin First Quarter 2023/24
monetary
The National Bank of Ethiopia issued its Quarterly Bulletin for the first quarter of fiscal year 2023/24 to present comprehensive data on the country's macroeconomic and social indicators. The report details developments across energy production, monetary policy, external sector performance, and federal government finance. It provides statistical tables covering GDP growth, inflation, money supply, and balance of payments to inform economic analysis and policy formulation.
Quarterly Bulletin
FIRST QUARTER 2023/24
FISCAL YEAR SERIES
nbe.gov.et
NATIONAL BANK OF ETHIOPIA
National Bank of Ethiopia (Central Bank)
- P.O. Box: 5550, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
- Tel: 251-11-551 7430
- Tel: 251-11-551 4588
Telegraphic Address:
NATIONAL BANK, TELEX 21020, CODES
USED PETERSON 3rd & 4th ED
BENTLEY’S 2nd PHRAS A.B.C...6th H EDITION
- E-mail: nbe.edpc@ethionet.et
- Web Site: http://www.nbe.gov.et
Prepared By:
Domestic Economic Analysis & Publications Directorate National Bank of Ethiopia
This Publication can be acquired by subscription or exchange. Please Contact:
Domestic Economic Analysis & Publications Directorate
National Bank of Ethiopia
P. O. Box 5550
Tel. 251 11 517 5262/11 517 5268
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
NATIONAL BANK OF ETHIOPIA
Quarterly Bulletin
Volume 40, No. 1
First Quarter 2023/24
Fiscal Year Series
Addis Ababa
2024
National Bank of Ethiopia Quarterly Bulletin
Table of Contents
| Section | Topic | Pages |
|---|---|---|
| Ethiopia: Macroeconomic and Social Indicators | i | |
| I. Overview | 1 | |
| 1.1: International Economic Developments | 1 | |
| 1.2: Macroeconomic Developments in Ethiopia | 2 | |
| II. Energy Production and Processing | 7 | |
| 2.1: Import of Petroleum Products | 7 | |
| 2.2: Electric Power Generation | 13 | |
| III. Quarterly Price Developments | 16 | |
| 3.1: Developments in National CPI | 16 | |
| 3.2: Developments in Regional CPI | 19 | |
| IV. Monetary Developments | 22 | |
| 4.1: Money Supply and Credit | 22 | |
| 4.2: Developments in Reserve Money and Monetary Ratio | 25 | |
| 4.3: Interest Rate Developments | 27 | |
| 4.4: Developments in the Financial Sector | 29 | |
| 4.5: Activities of the Banking System | 32 | |
| 4.5.1: Resource Mobilization | 32 | |
| 4.5.1.1: Deposit Mobilization | 33 | |
| 4.5.1.2: Collection of Loans | 34 | |
| 4.5.1.3: Borrowing | 34 | |
| 4.5.2: Disbursement of Fresh Loans | 35 | |
| 4.5.3: Outstanding Credit | 36 | |
| 4.6: Financial Activities of NBE | 38 | |
| 4.7: Developments in Financial Markets | 39 | |
| 4.7.1: Treasury Bills Market | 39 | |
| 4.7.2: Inter-bank Money Market | 41 | |
| 4.7.3: Corporate Bond Market | 41 | |
| V. External Sector Developments | 44 | |
| 5.1: Balance of Payments | 44 | |
| 5.2: Balance of Trade | 47 | |
| 5.2.1: Exports of Goods | 48 | |
| 5.2.2: Imports of Goods | 53 | |
| 5.2.3: Direction of Trade | 55 | |
| 5.2.3.1: Exports of goods | 55 | |
| 5.2.3.2: Imports of goods | 57 | |
| 5.3: Services and Transfers | 58 | |
| 5.3.1: Net Services | 58 | |
| 5.3.2: Transfers | 60 | |
| 5.4: Current Account Balance | 61 | |
| 5.5: Capital Account | 61 | |
| 5.6: Changes in Reserve Position | 62 | |
| 5.7: Developments in Foreign Exchange Market | 62 | |
| 5.7.1: Exchange Rate Movements | 62 | |
| 5.7.2: Movements in the Real Effective Exchange Rate | 70 | |
| 5.7.3: Volume of Transactions | 72 | |
| VI. Federal Government Finance | 73 | |
| 6.1: Revenue and Grants | 75 | |
| 6.2: Expenditure | 78 | |
| 6.3: Deficit Financing | 82 | |
| VIII. International Economic Developments | 83 | |
| 8.1: Overview of the World Economy | 83 | |
| 8.2: Inflation Developments | 83 | |
| 8.3: Commodity Price | 84 | |
| 8.4: Exchange Rate Development | 85 | |
| 8.5: Impact of Global Economic Dev’t on Ethiopian Economy | 85 | |
| Statistical Tables | 86 |
Ethiopia: Macroeconomic and Social Indicators
1. Country Profile
| Indicators | 2015/16 (2008) | 2016/17 (2009) | 2017/18 (2010) | 2018/19 (2011) | 2019/20 (2012) | 2020/21 (2013) | 2021/22 (2014) | 2022/23 (2015) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Land Area (total, in Sq.Km) | 1.14 million | 1.14 million | 1.14 million | 1.14 million | 1.14 million | 1.14 million | 1.14 million | 1.14 million |
| Arable Land (% of total area) | NA | NA | 12.00 | 13 | 14.2 | 14.32 | 14.41 | 16.2 |
| Agricultural Irrigated Land (% of total Agricultural area) | NA | NA | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 5 | 6.20% |
| Population Density (person per sq.km)* | 101.00 | 104.00 | 106 | 109 | 112 | 115 | 123 | 127 |
2. Social Indicators
| Indicators | 2015/16 (2008) | 2016/17 (2009) | 2017/18 (2010) | 2018/19 (2011) | 2019/20 (2012) | 2020/21 (2013) | 2021/22 (2014) | 2022/23 (2015) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population total, in millions (Mid-Year population) | 91.2 | 93.4 | 95.5 | 97.6 | 99.75 | 101.9 | 104.1 | 105.7 |
| Urban Population, in % | 19.9 | 20.3 | 21 | 22.8 | 22.8 | 22.8 | 22.8 | 28.2 |
| Working Age Population (In Millions) | ||||||||
| Urban | 12.2 | 12.8 | 13.13 | 14.03 | 15.01 | 16.04 | 16.04 | 31.1 |
| Rural | 39.7 | 40.8 | 42 | 43.06 | 44.28 | 45.8 | 46.6 | 40.4 |
| Total | 52.0 | 53.6 | 56 | 56.19 | 58.31 | 60.81 | 62.64 | 61.7 |
| Age Dependency Ratio | 75.0 | 75 | 69 | 69 | 69 | 69 | 69 | 62 |
| Life Expectancy at Birth (Male - Female) | 60.2-64.2 | 60.2-64.2 | 62.4-66.6 | 62.4-66.6 | 62.4-66.6 | 65.5 | 68.5 | 65.5 |
| Crude Birth Rate | 30.3:1000 | 30.3:1000 | 27:1000 | 27:1000 | 27:1000 | 27:1002 | 27:1003 | 27:1000 |
| Crude Death Rate | 7.2:1000 | 7.2:1000 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6.03 | 6.00 | 6.30 |
| Natural Rate of Population Increase (In %) | 2.31 | 2.31 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2.07 |
| Total Fertility Rate | 3.94child/W | 3.94child/W | 3.5child/W | 3.5child/W | 3.5child/W | 4.6child/W | 4.6child/W | 4.1 |
| People : Hospital Beds | 2850:1 | 2980:1 | 3617:1 | 1,312 | 2750 | 2720 | 2900 | 3225: 1 bed |
| People : Physician¹ | 14045:1 | 22766:1 | 26635:1 | 10,521:1 | 9977:1 | 8448:1 | 7576 | 5737 |
| People : Nurse¹ | 1999:1 | 1194:1 | 1780:1 | 1620:1 | 1705 | 1473 | 1415 | 983 |
| Infant Mortality Rate | 62.4:1000 | 62.4:1000 | 53.3:1000 | 53.3:1000 | 43.3:1000 | 47:1001 | 47:1000 | 34:1000 |
| Access to Safe Water (In %) | ||||||||
| Country Level | 61.0 | 66.0 | 71 | 76 | 79.3 | 58.5 | 58.76 | 67.1 |
| Urban Population | 52.5 | 55.0 | 60 | 66 | 66.5 | 62.95 | 71.97 | 75.7 |
| Rural Population | 63.1 | 68.0 | 74 | 79 | 82.7 | 57.26 | 59.76 | 64.5 |
| Student-Teacher Ratio | ||||||||
| Primary (1-8) | 46:1 | 43.00 | 43 | 39 | 39 | 34.8 | 34.6 | 36.4 |
| Secondary (9-12) | 26.5:1 | 43.00 | 43 | 22.5 | 24 | 27.4 | 27.7 | 26.6 |
| Technical & Vocational | 12.6:1 | 11.00 | 26 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 1.71 | 1.71 | 1.78 |
| Student-School Ratio | ||||||||
| Primary (1-8) | 573:1 | 580.00 | 567 | 628 | 528 | 512.7 | 526.6 | 517.6 |
| Secondary (9-12) | 767.2:1 | 754.00 | 741 | 568 | 940 | 1017 | 1063 | 1009.6 |
| Technical & Vocational | 523:1 | 329.00 | 378 | 246.8:1 | 246.6:1 | 777 | 138 | 151.5 |
Continued...
3. Macroeconomic Indicators
| Indicators | 2015/16 (2008) | 2016/17 (2009) | 2017/18 (2010) | 2018/19 (2011) | 2019/20 (2012) | 2020/21 (2013) | 2021/22 (2014) | 2022/23 (2015) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.1. Real sector Development² | ||||||||
| GDP at Current Market Price (In Mn. Birr) | 1,568,097.45 | 1,832,553.7 | 2,202,373 | 2,696,223.0 | 3,374,747 | 4341387.1 | 6,157,538 | 8,722,308 |
| Nominal GDP Growth Rate (In %) | 17.7 | 16.9 | 26.2 | 22.4 | 25.5 | 28.6 | 41.8 | 42.4 |
| Average Marginal Exchange Rate (Birr per USD) | 21.1 | 22.4 | 26.1 | 28.1 | 31.3 | 39.0 | 48.57 | 53,283 |
| GDP at Current Market Price (In Mn. USD) | 74,296.6 | 81,760.4 | 84,355.6 | 95,951.0 | 107,673 | 111271.2 | 126,783 | 163,698 |
| Nominal GDP per Capita (In USD) | 814.6 | 875.8 | 883.3 | 983.1 | 1,080 | 1091.8 | 1,218 | 1,549 |
| Real GDP per Capita (In Birr) | 8,864.0 | 18,257.5 | 19,205 | 20,360.2 | 21,144.7 | 21,863.35 | 22,542.21 | 22,798,071.26 |
| Real GDP per Capita Growth Rate (In %) | 3.4 | 8.0 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 101035.0 |
| GDP Deflator (% change) | 9.5 | 6.7 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 18.2 | 21.8 | 34.7 | 32.9 |
| Real GDP at constant basic price (In Mn. Birr) | 1,449,367.5 | 1,596,481.6 | 1,719,491 | 1,874,689.3 | 1,989,587.7 | 2,114,238.3 | 2,248,571.6 | 2,439,478,100.7 |
| Real GDP at constant market price (In Mn. Birr) | 1,568,097.5 | 1,717,127.2 | 1,834,066 | 1,987,157.5 | 2,109,180.1 | 2,228,170.1 | 2,346,644.1 | 2,409,921,417.8 |
| Real GDP Growth Rate (In %) | 8.0 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 6.3 | 6.1 | 7.2 |
| Agriculture & Allied Activities (In Billion Birr) | 544.1 | 580.4 | 600.9 | 623.8 | 650.3 | 686.4 | 728.4 | 774.0 |
| Industrial Sector (In Billion Birr) | 343.9 | 413.8 | 464 | 526.2 | 576.9 | 618.8 | 649.2 | 694.2 |
| Service Sector (In Billion Birr) | 575.9 | 619.3 | 674 | 745.7 | 786.8 | 836.2 | 899.8 | 971.3 |
| Agriculture & Allied Activities (% of GDP) | 37.5 | 36.4 | 34.9 | 33.3 | 32.7 | 32.5 | 32.4 | 32.1 |
| Industrial Sector (% of GDP) | 23.7 | 25.9 | 27.0 | 28.1 | 29.0 | 29.3 | 28.9 | 28.8 |
| Service Sector (% of GDP) | 39.7 | 38.8 | 39.2 | 39.8 | 39.5 | 39.6 | 40 | 40.3 |
| Private Consumption Expenditure | 1,042,284.6 | 1,219,365.9 | 1,441,581.1 | 1,848,070.0 | 2,360,896 | 3,134,994 | 4,764,429 | 6882737.9 |
| Government Consumption Expenditure | 174,598.8 | 203,607.9 | 225,523.2 | 247,362.0 | 307,769 | 383,565 | 453,263 | 551106.6 |
| Investment | 585,665.0 | 704,596.0 | 761,526.2 | 948,886.0 | 1,037,685 | 1,216,585 | 1,560,325 | 1,933,863 |
| Exports | 122,500.8 | 139,830.1 | 184,282.1 | 213,437.0 | 239,229 | 329,634 | 507,692 | 575,062 |
| Imports | 424,749.9 | 430,233.2 | 502,112.9 | 561,512.0 | 571,230 | 723,391 | 1,128,171 | 1,220,461 |
| Resource Balance | (302,249.0) | (290,403.0) | (317,831.0) | (348,075.0) | -329,096 | -394,236 | -620,479 | -645,400 |
| Gross Private Consumption (% of GDP) | 66.5 | 66.5 | 65.5 | 68.5 | 69.96 | 72 | 77.4 | 78.9 |
| Gross Government Consumption (% of GDP) | 11.1 | 11.1 | 10.2 | 9.2 | 9.1 | 8.84 | 7.4 | 6.3 |
| Gross Domestic Fixed Investment (% of GDP) | 37.3 | 38.4 | 34.1 | 35.2 | 30.7 | 28.02 | 25.3 | 22.2 |
| Resource Balance (% of GDP) | (19.3) | (15.8) | (12.9) | -7.4 | ||||
| 3.2. Monetary Indicators | ||||||||
| Narrow Money Supply (M1) (In Mn. Birr) | 178,609.66 | 216,769.62 | 281,154.66 | 308,937.13 | 360,585.50 | 437,391.97 | 588,015.82 | 706,142.20 |
| Broad Money Supply (M2) (In Mn. Birr) | 445,266.25 | 573,834.05 | 740,572.88 | 886,752.53 | 1,037,646.33 | 1,348,266.15 | 1,715,310.03 | 2,170,848.37 |
| Net Foreign Assets (In Mn. Birr) | 21,524.19 | 38,034.79 | 39,376.20 | 14,506.19 | (8,321.31) | (812,32) | (111,427.54) | (160,097.68) |
| Reserve Requirement (CRs) | 21,745.43 | 28,278.91 | 36,385.76 | 44,861.74 | 51,952.51 | 67,732.37 | 119,022.55 | 150,325.15 |
| Interest Rate (In %) | ||||||||
| Minimum Deposit Rate | 5.00 | 5.00 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| Lending Rate | 12.75 | 12.75 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 14.25 | 14.25 | 14.25 | 14.25 |
| Total Net Domestic Credit (in mn. Birr) | 490,230.35 | 631,092.73 | 784,621.73 | 963,689.91 | 1,176,928.45 | 1,481,844.43 | 1,930,821.80 | 2,444,435.50 |
| Government | 47,524.36 | 85,441.85 | 109,799.21 | 137,082.91 | 214,275.16 | 422,864.02 | 573,675.72 | |
| Other Sectors | 442,705.99 | 545,650.89 | 682,618.90 | 853,900.70 | 1,039,843.53 | 1,267,569.27 | 1,507,757.78 | 1,870,759.78 |
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