October 2026 Monetary Program: BCRP Maintains Reference Interest Rate at 4.25%

INFORMATIVE NOTE
OCTOBER 2026 MONETARY PROGRAM
BCRP MAINTAINED THE REFERENCE INTEREST RATE AT 4.25%

1. The Board of Directors of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) agreed to maintain the reference interest rate at 4.25 percent.

2. The decision to maintain the reference rate took into account the following information and projections:

i. In September, monthly inflation was 0.12 percent and inflation excluding food and energy was 0.07 percent. On a year-over-year basis, inflation increased from 4.4 percent in August to 4.5 percent in September, mainly due to the increase in prices of fuels and electricity. Inflation excluding food and energy remained at 4.5 percent, while, excluding the transport category, it remained at 1.8 percent year-over-year and has remained below 2 percent since April of last year. The deviation of inflation from the target range responds mainly to the rise in fuel prices and their effects on transport costs in March and April.

ii. Twelve-month inflation expectations remained at 3.1 percent in September, slightly above the upper limit of the inflation target range.

iii. It is projected that both year-over-year inflation and inflation excluding food and energy will return to the target range and settle around 2 percent in the projection horizon, as the effects of supply shocks that affected inflation dissipate. However, there is a risk that the El Niño Phenomenon and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may have more persistent effects on inflation.

iv. Leading indicators of economic activity as of September continue to show good performance. In the Central Bank's survey, current situation indicators recorded a mixed evolution compared to the previous month, while expectation indicators remained in the optimistic range with some moderation.

v. Global risks remain elevated, reflected in greater volatility of financial markets and international oil prices. Furthermore, uncertainty persists regarding tensions in the Middle East, to which other geopolitical risks are added. Despite this, the outlook for global economic activity growth remains positive, and terms of trade continue to favor the Peruvian economy.

3. The Board remains particularly attentive to new information on inflation and its determinants, including the evolution of underlying inflation, inflation expectations, economic activity, and the duration of supply shocks, in order to make adjustments to the monetary policy position in the short term. The Board reaffirms its commitment to taking necessary actions to ensure the return of inflation to the target range within the projection horizon.

4. During the same session, the Board agreed on the following interest rates for BCRP operations in national currency with the financial system under the counter window modality:

i. Overnight deposits: 2.25 percent annually.

ii. Direct securities and currency repurchase operations, and Monetary Regulation Credits:
i) 4.75 percent annually for the first 10 operations in the last 3 months; and ii) the interest rate set by the Monetary and Exchange Operations Committee for operations additional to these 10 operations in the last 3 months. Additionally, the Monetary and Exchange Operations Committee may establish higher rates based on the amount of the operations.

5. The next Board session in which the Monetary Program will be evaluated is scheduled for November 12, 2026.

Lima, October 7, 2026