Scenario Thinking Crucial for Capital Market Stability - NL Summary — AFM — NL

TOEZICHT EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Deep Dive Analysis Capital Markets | Summary | November 2025

Scenario Thinking Crucial for Capital Market Stability

European capital markets appear robust, but vulnerabilities lie beneath the surface. Geopolitical tensions, technological dependencies, and financial innovations are increasing hidden risks. Crises often do not arise from a single error, but from interconnectedness and synchronized behavior: when many parties make the same choices simultaneously, even a strong system can collapse.

Why Scenario Thinking?
The world is unpredictable. Examples such as the financial crisis, the COVID-19 market shock, and the LME nickel incident show that systemic stress often stems from chain effects. The AFM is investigating critical functions – issuance, investing, trading, clearing, and settlement – and identifies archetypal risks, such as:

Institutional concentration
Geographic dependence
Hidden dependencies
Behavioral convergence

Example Scenario
A loss of confidence in the US dollar, combined with cyberattacks and instability of stablecoins, could trigger a domino effect in a concentrated ecosystem. This threatens European market infrastructure and could lead to systemic stress.

What Does Scenario Thinking Yield?
Through scenario thinking, we explore plausible futures that reveal vulnerabilities. By collaborating and focusing on system-wide dynamics, market participants can:

Detect risks earlier
Limit the impact of crises
Enhance transparency and robustness

Why Act Now?
It is not just about financial stability, but also about trust, protection of households, and securing the European economy. Scenario thinking is crucial to prepare for plausible futures and to ensure the resilience of capital markets.

Read the full deep dive analysis (English) here