2026 Q2: Quarterly decision of the National Bank of Belgium on the countercyclical buffer rate (1 April 2026): 1.25 %

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Quarterly decision of the National Bank of Belgium on the countercyclical buffer rate for 2026Q2: 1.25 % Pursuant to Art. 5 §2 Annex IV to the Banking Law, the National Bank of Belgium has decided to keep the countercyclical buffer rate for exposures in Belgium at 1.25 %. Justification

1. The countercyclical capital buffer is a macroprudential instrument designed to mitigate cyclical
   systemic risks and to counter pro-cyclicality in lending. Its objective is to support the sustainable provision of credit through the cycle by strengthening the resilience of banks. In particular, capital buffers are imposed whenever there is an increase in cyclical systemic risks (i.e. with excessive growth in lending), so that these additional requirements can be relaxed when the cycle turns and the risks start to decline. If risks emerge – in a situation of financial stress for instance – a decision can be taken to release the buffer instantly in order to give the banks some extra breathing space and thus put them in a better position to absorb losses and keep up their level of lending when the economic and financial environment is vulnerable. The countercyclical buffer rate, expressed as a percentage of banks’ risk-weighted assets, is generally between 0 and 2.5 %, but can be set higher when justified by the underlying risk. It should be noted that the countercyclical capital buffer is only one of the macroprudential instruments available to the National Bank of Belgium for achieving its mission of contributing to the stability of the financial system.
2. Pursuant to Article 5 of Annex IV to the Law of 25 April 2014 on the legal status and supervision of
   credit institutions, the National Bank of Belgium sets each quarter the countercyclical buffer rate applicable to credit exposures to counterparties located on Belgian territory on the basis of one or more reference indicators that reflect the credit cycle and the risks stemming from excessive credit growth in Belgium, and that account for the specific elements of the national economy. These indicators shall include the deviation of the credit-to-GDP ratio from its long-term trend (the credit￾to-GDP gap), accounting for the change in volumes of credit granted on Belgian territory and the evolution of Belgian GDP, the recommendations issued by the ESRB, and any other variable that the National Bank of Belgium deems relevant to capture cyclical systemic risk.
3. The National Bank of Belgium sets the countercyclical buffer rate pursuant to its policy strategy
   regarding the countercyclical capital buffer. 1 In line with the Basel III framework and the ESRB Recommendation of 18 June 2014 on guidance for setting countercyclical buffer rates, the quarterly decision on the countercyclical buffer rate is partially based on a ‘buffer guide’ derived from the credit-to-GDP gap. 2 Given the specific features of the domestic financial system and statistical properties of the credit series monitored, the National Bank of Belgium sets the credit-to-GDP variable on the basis of resident bank loans. The quarterly decision on the countercyclical buffer rate also takes into account additional macrofinancial indicators, including broader credit measures.
4. On 1 October 2025, the National Bank of Belgium decided to adjust its macroprudential policy in
5. Owing to reduced vulnerabilities in mortgage loan portfolios, a halving of the macroprudential
   capital buffer for risks in Belgian mortgage portfolios was deemed justified. In order to simplify its macroprudential policy and ensure that it is as effective as possible, the NBB further decided to no longer impose a separate buffer for mortgage loans and to incorporate this requirement into the countercyclical capital buffer.
6. This decision led to a raising of the countercyclical capital buffer from 1% to 1.25% on 1 January
7. This increase will take effect on 1 July 2026, following a six-month transition period. The
   amount of the buffer will thereby increase from approximately €2.7 billion to around €3.3 billion. At 1 "Setting the countercyclical buffer rate in Belgium: a policy strategy". 2 The buffer guide is the result of the credit-to-GDP gap being mapped into a benchmark buffer rate, as specified in the ESRB Recommendation of 18 June 2014 on guidance for setting countercyclical buffer rates. The benchmark buffer rate equals 0 % for credit-to-GDP gap levels up to 2 percentage points. When the credit-to-GDP gap exceeds 2 percentage points, the benchmark buffer rate increases linearly, reaching its maximum level of 2.5 % for credit-to-GDP gap levels of 10 percentage points and higher.

NBB - Public the same time, the specific capital buffer for risks in mortgage portfolios, which currently amounts to approximately €1.3 billion, will be abolished. From 1 July 2026, the macroprudential capital requirements will thus be both simplified and reduced, falling from approximately €3.9 billion to €3.3 billion. The reduction in these total requirements corresponds to the decrease in risks in mortgage portfolios.
6. On 10 March 2026, the NBB has decided to maintain the rate of this capital buffer at 1.25% for the
second quarter of 2026. The NBB will continue to adjust the level of this countercyclical capital buffer going forward based on developments in the credit and financial cycle, which are currently pointing upwards. After a slowdown due to the sharp rise in interest rates, which, however, proceeded in a very orderly manner, both lending to the real economy and the residential property market in Belgium recovered reasonably swiftly and are currently back to dynamic levels again. Monetary policy has also been eased, giving an additional boost to lending. In addition, there have been substantial stock market gains in recent quarters while risk premia on the bond markets remained historically low. However, military conflict in the Middle East and investor anxiety about the massive investments being made in artificial intelligence and the potentially disruptive effects of this technology on certain sectors have led to increased financial market volatility in recent weeks. The NBB will monitor these developments closely. For the time being, it considers that a countercyclical capital buffer of 1.25% is so far sufficient to ensure the resilience of the Belgian banking sector. The Belgian financial sector has, in the meantime, maintained its strong financial position.
7. Countercyclical capital buffer decisions are revisited each quarter, in accordance with European
regulations and the National Bank of Belgium’s macroprudential powers under the 2014 Banking Act.

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Table 1: Key indicators 1
Variable Unit Latest period Value
Non-financial private sector credit cycle (resident bank loans) Preferred credit-to-GDP gap % GDP 2025 Q4 -5.1 Households % GDP 2025 Q4 -5.2 Non-financial corporations % GDP 2025 Q4 0.1 CCyB guide related to preferred credit gap 2 % RWA 2025 Q4 0.0 Standardised credit-to-GDP gap % GDP 2025 Q3 -32.1 CCyB guide related to standardized credit gap 2 % RWA 2025 Q3 0.0 Bank loan growth y-o-y % 2025 M12 4.3 Households y-o-y % 2025 M12 3.5 Non-financial corporations y-o-y % 2025 M12 5.1 p.m. Credit-to-GDP ratio 3 % GDP 2025 Q3 77.8 Non-financial private sector resilience Debt-to-GDP ratio % GDP 2025 Q3 116.8 Households % GDP 2025 Q3 56.8 Non-financial corporations % GDP 2025 Q3 60 Net financial assets % GDP 2025 Q3 131.8 Financial and assets markets Equity prices, nominal (Euro Stoxx 50) y-o-y % 2026 M01 16.7 Price-earnings ratio (Euro Stoxx 50) 4 – 2026 M01 17.9 House prices, nominal y-o-y % 2025 Q2 4.1 House prices, real y-o-y % 2025 Q2 1.6 10-year government bond yield % points/y 2026 M01 3.4 Bank lending rate on mortgage loans to households % points/y 2025 M12 3.3 Bank lending rate on loans to non-financial corporations % points/y 2025 M12 3.6 Banking sector resilience CET 1 capital ratio % 2025 Q4 14.9 Equity-to-total assets ratio % 2025 Q4 7.7 Loan-to-deposit ratio % 2025 Q4 94.4 External imbalances Current account % GDP 2025 Q3 -2.0 Net international investment position % GDP 2025 Q3 54.5 Asset quality NPL ratio Belgian non-financial corporations % total loans 2025 Q4 3.37 Belgian households % total loans 2025 Q4 1.34 Forbearance ratio Belgian non-financial corporations % total loans 2025 Q4 1.81 Belgian households % total loans 2025 Q4 0.84 Loan loss ratio 5 Consolidated, including interbank loans b.p. 2025 14.4 Non-consolidated, excluding interbank loans b.p. 2025 13.0 Sources: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, NBB. 1 Monthly averages for daily data. Data are shown at the end of quarter (March, June, September, December) or for the latest month available. 2 CCyB guides are expressed in percentage of risk-weighted assets. 3 Outstanding amounts of loans granted by resident monetary financial institutions to households and non-financial corporations, including those securitized, in percentage of GDP.

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4
Price earnings (P/E) ratio is a trailing (12 months) P/E ratio.
5 The loan loss ratio is the net flow of new impairments for credit losses, expressed as a percentage of the total stock of loans (one basis point is one-hundredth of one per cent).

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STATISTICAL ANNEX
Sources: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, NBB.

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STATISTICAL ANNEX (cont.)
Sources: Haver Analytics, NBB.

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STATISTICAL ANNEX (cont.)
Source: NBB.