Regulatory Alerts2026-06-19
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Inflation Report June 2026: Current Outlook and Macroeconomic Projections 2026 - 2027
The Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) June 2026 Inflation Report presents current macroeconomic projections for 2026-2027, noting that global economic activity and outlook are affected by the Middle East conflict, leading to inflationary pressures and a more restrictive monetary policy stance, though global growth is maintained at 3.1% for both years. Domestically, Peru's GDP growth projection for 2026 is revised upwards to 3.4% driven by non-primary sectors and private spending, while the fiscal deficit is expected to decrease to 1.8% of GDP in 2026 and 1.5% in 2027, and the BCRP has maintained its reference interest rate at 4.25% since September 2025. Year-on-year inflation increased to 3.91% in May 2026, projected to be 3.8% for 2026 and 2.0% for 2027, with the balance of risks revised upwards primarily due to potential internal supply shocks, including the El Niño phenomenon.