Personal Statements of Members for the 306th Meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC)

Date: Tuesday, 21st July 2026
Ref: CBN/MPC/COM/163/306
Attention: News Editors/Gentlemen of the Press MONETARY POLICY RATE RETAINED AT 26.5 PER CENT The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) held its 306th meeting on July 20 and 21, 2026. The Committee reviewed recent developments in the global and domestic economies, assessed emerging risks to the outlook and considered their implications for monetary policy. Eleven (11) members of the Committee were in attendance. Decisions of the MPC The Committee decided as follows:

1. Retain the Monetary Policy Rate at 26.5 per cent.
2. Retain the Standing Facilities Corridor around the MPR at +50/-450 basis
   points.
3. Retain the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) for Deposit Money Banks
   at 45.00 per cent, Merchant Banks at 16.00 per cent, and non-TSA public sector deposits at 75.00 per cent. The Committee’s decision to maintain the current policy stance followed a thorough assessment of the balance of risks. Although the headline inflation moderated marginally in June 2026, global uncertainties have heightened due mainly to the renewed hostilities in the Middle East. In view of the evolving developments, maintaining a cautious monetary policy stance remains appropriate.

Considerations
In arriving at its decision, the Committee noted the recent resurgence of hostilities in the Middle East with particular attention to its spillover effects on global energy prices and the potential pass-through to domestic inflation. Notwithstanding the development, available evidence suggests that the Nigerian economy has remained largely resilient to the external shocks, reflecting the gains from prior reforms implemented by the fiscal and monetary authorities. However, maintaining the current monetary policy stance will provide an opportunity to closely monitor incoming data and assess the trajectory of inflation to guide future policy decisions. The MPC acknowledged the Federal Government’s renewed commitment to strengthening policy coordination, with particular emphasis on the ongoing collaboration with the monetary authority which has helped to moderate the impact of the Middle East crisis on the domestic economy. Members thus, noted that greater alignment between fiscal and monetary policies would enhance policy effectiveness and support the achievement of overall macroeconomic objectives. To further strengthen macroeconomic fundamentals, the Committee underscored the potential benefits of Executive Order 9. Members further commended Government’s renewed efforts in improving crude oil production and encouraged relevant agencies to strengthen the implementation of reforms to maximize the potentials in other sectors, such as solid minerals, to complement Government earnings. The MPC welcomed the positive outcome of the banking sector recapitalisation exercise, noting the improvement in the resilience of the banking system as reflected in key prudential and financial soundness indicators. It nevertheless urged the Bank to sustain effective surveillance to preserve financial sector soundness and mitigate potential risks to financial stability. Price and Other Domestic Developments Headline inflation (year-on-year) eased marginally to 15.91 per cent in June 2026, from 15.93 per cent in May 2026, ending the three consecutive months of uptick in price levels. The decline resulted from a decrease in the non￾food component which offset the increase in food inflation. Food inflation rose to 17.52 per cent in June 2026, from 16.96 per cent in May 2026, reflecting supply constraints. However, core inflation moderated to
15.92 per cent in June 2026, from 16.82 per cent in May 2026, largely on the
back of exchange rate stability. Similarly, the 12-month average inflation rate sustained its decline to 17.63 per cent in June 2026 from 18.36 per cent in May 2026, marking the sixth month of consecutive moderation and reflecting a slower pace of price increases over the medium term. On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation declined to 1.66 per cent in June 2026 from 1.75 per cent in May 2026, driven by a slowdown in core inflation.

Real GDP expanded by 3.89 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, compared with 4.07 per cent in the preceding period. This was largely driven by the resilience of the non-oil sector, which grew by 3.94 per cent, supported by improvements in telecommunications, financial services, trade, transportation, and other services sub-sectors. Oil sector GDP growth rate declined to 2.57 per cent in the first quarter of 2026 from 6.79 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2025, due to the maintenance of oil facilities and installations. However, recent data showed improvement in economic activities as composite Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 50.1 index points in June 2026 from 49.6 index points in May 2026. Gross external reserves rose to US$52.52 billion as of July 17, 2026, from US$50.47 billion as at end-May 2026, mainly as a result of receipts from crude oil-related taxes and third-party inflows. This is sufficient to finance approximately 11 months of imports of goods and services, surpassing the international benchmark of three months cover. Global Developments Recent estimates indicate that global growth is anticipated to slow to 3.0 per cent in 2026 compared to 3.5 per cent in 2025, reflecting the impact of heightened geo-political tensions in the Middle East, trade policy uncertainties and tight fiscal conditions. Risks to global inflation remain on the upside, driven mainly by the increasing prices of crude oil and other commodities. Inflationary pressures are likely to be further amplified by supply chain disruptions and climate-related shocks inhibiting food production. Additionally, exchange rate volatility and fiscal constraints pose upside risks to inflation in most Emerging and Developing Economies. Outlook Output growth is projected to remain resilient in 2026, anchored on the recent improvement in crude oil production, expansionary Purchasing Managers Index and the positive impact of timely policy reforms. Inflation is projected to moderate further in the medium term on the back of continued stability in the foreign exchange market, lagged effect of previous monetary policy tightening and improved food supply conditions as the harvest season approaches. The key risk to the outlook, however, remains the severe and prolonged escalation of the Middle East conflict. In the light of these considerations, the Committee reaffirmed its commitment to preserve price and financial system stability and remains prepared to take appropriate policy measures, guided by evolving macroeconomic conditions. The next meeting of the Committee is scheduled for Monday, 21st and Tuesday, 22nd September 2026.

Thank you.
Olayemi Cardoso
Governor,
Central Bank of Nigeria
July 21, 2026.

1. AKU PAULINE ODINKEMELU
   INTRODUCTION
   I vote to retain all monetary policy parameters at the levels decided at the 305th MPC Meeting of May 2026, namely: the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at
   26.50 per cent, the asymmetric corridor around the MPR at +50/-450 basis
   points, the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) at 45.0 per cent for Deposit Money Banks and 16.0 per cent for Merchant Banks, the CRR on non-TSA public sector deposits at 75.0 per cent, and the Liquidity Ratio at 30.0 per cent. This vote is informed by the need to consolidate the gains already achieved in restoring macroeconomic stability while maintaining vigilance against emerging inflationary risks as enunciated below. ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CONTEXT GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS Key Global Trends and Monetary Policy Decisions in Advanced and Emerging Economies. The global economy in the period leading to the July 2026 MPC meeting remained fragile, characterized by heightened geopolitical uncertainty, moderation in inflation in several jurisdictions, divergent growth outcomes, and increased caution among central banks. The renewed hostilities in the Middle East remained the dominant source of global risk, raising concerns about energy prices, supply chain disruptions, and potential second-round inflationary effects. These developments contributed to a more cautious policy stance among many major central banks. Key Global Trends Rising Geopolitical Risks and Energy Price Uncertainty The resurgence of conflict in the Middle East increased volatility in global oil and gas markets, posing upside risks to inflation worldwide. Although oil prices moderated from their initial peaks, central banks remained concerned about the potential pass-through of higher energy costs to consumer prices and inflation expectations. Gradual Disinflation but Persistent Price Pressures Many economies continued to record moderating headline inflation due to previous monetary tightening and easing supply bottlenecks. However, inflation remained above target in several jurisdictions, particularly due to energy-related pressures and enduring services inflation. Central banks generally viewed inflation risks as tilted to the upside.

Resilient Labor Markets
Labor markets remained relatively strong across major advanced economies despite tighter financial conditions. Low unemployment and steady wage growth helped support economic activity but also raised concerns about persistent inflationary pressures. Divergence in Monetary Policy Paths Central banks increasingly adopted differentiated policy responses reflecting country-specific inflation and growth dynamics. While some emerging market central banks began cautiously easing policy, others maintained restrictive stances. Advanced economy central banks largely remained cautious and data-dependent preferring to maintain a wait- and- see policy stance. The July 2026 WEO update shows that Global growth is projected to moderate to 3.0 per cent in 2026 and recover to 3.4 per cent in 2027, down from 3.1 per cent projected in the April 2026 WEO. This represents a slowdown from the 3.5 per cent average growth recorded in 2025. The modest slowdown reflects the impacts of the war in the Middle East being partly offset by accelerated demand-driven momentum in the global technology cycle, driven by advances in artificial intelligence and its adoption. The Advanced economies are projected to grow by 1.7 per cent in 2026 and
1.8 per cent in 2027. The United States stands out as a relative bright spot,
projected to expand by 2.3 per cent in 2026, underpinned by stronger productivity growth and a terms-of-trade benefit as a net energy exporter. The euro area is projected to grow at 0.9 per cent in 2026, a downward revision reflecting the energy shock. Japan's growth has been revised down to 0.9 per cent for fiscal 2026 on higher oil prices and yen depreciation, while the United Kingdom is projected at 0.9–1.0 per cent before recovering modestly in 2027 as the energy shock fades. Emerging markets and developing economies are significantly impacted by the conflict, with growth projected at 3.8 per cent in 2026 before recovering to 4.5 per cent in 2027. The Middle East and Central Asia face the steepest decline, with growth expected to plunge to 0.7 per cent in 2026, a downward revision of 1.2 percentage points. Sub-Saharan Africa's growth forecast has been trimmed to 4.3 per cent, as elevated fuel, food, and agricultural input costs continue to weigh on the region's recovery. On prices, global headline inflation is expected to increase from 4.1 per cent in 2025 to 4.7 per cent in 2026 before declining to 3.9 per cent in 2027, marking upward revisions from the April projections. This is driven largely by higher energy prices, less supportive monetary policy, and elevated policy

and geopolitical uncertainty. This suggests that, with every passing day without a resolution, we are moving away from that scenario, drifting closer towards the adverse scenario. The severe scenario envisages that energy supply disruptions extend into 2027, with global growth falling to 2 per cent this year and next, while inflation exceeds 6 per cent. Fundamentally, vulnerable commodity-importing EMDEs with pre-existing fragilities remain most exposed. Key risks include geopolitical escalation, trade frictions, fiscal constraints from elevated public debt, and threats to central bank independence. The IMF cautions that a deeper conflict could prolong commodity price swings and tighten financial conditions. As highlighted earlier, monetary authorities are maintaining a guarded posture, with most holding rates as they assess inflation trajectories, preserving policy space to respond if conditions deteriorate. However, this suffices where inflation expectations remain anchored, though clear forward guidance remains critical. DOMESTIC ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK The domestic economy continues to exhibit encouraging signs of resilience. Inflationary pressures have moderated considerably compared with previous periods, with headline inflation easing marginally to 15.91 per cent in June 2026, while core inflation also declined to 15.92 per cent from 16.82 percent, reflecting the positive impact of exchange rate stability and sustained policy discipline though food inflation rose to 17.52 per cent hinged mainly on supply constraints. The inflationary pressures have been largely externally induced through spillovers. The moderation in inflation indicates that previous monetary tightening measures are yielding results and should be allowed additional time to transmit fully through the economy. Premature policy easing at this stage could undermine these hard-won gains and risk reigniting inflationary pressures. The domestic economy maintained its growth momentum. Real GDP expanded by 3.89 per cent in Q1 2026, up from 3.13 per cent a year earlier, though moderating from 4.07 per cent in Q4 2025. The services sector remained the primary driver at 4.31 per cent growth, while agriculture rebounded sharply to 3.15 per cent from 0.07 per cent in Q1 2025. Industry grew by 3.50 per cent, with oil output averaging 1.55 mbpd. The non-oil sector accounted for 96.08 per cent of real GDP, underscoring ongoing diversification.

High-frequency indicators point to sustained expansion in Q1 2026. The PMI remained in expansionary territory supported by refining activity, telecommunications, and financial services, though geopolitical risks could temper momentum. The IMF retained Nigeria's 2026 growth forecast at 4.1 per cent and 4.3 per cent for 2027. Our external buffers remain robust and continue to shield the economy from external shocks. Gross external reserves rose to US$52.52 billion as of July 17, 2026, from US$50.47 billion at end-May, sufficient to finance approximately 11 months of imports, well above the three-month benchmark, reflecting improved crude oil tax receipts, stronger exports, and increased capital inflows. On the financial system front, the banking recapitalization program concluded successfully, strengthening banking system resilience as reflected in improved prudential and financial soundness indicators. Post-consolidation, the proposed overhaul of the financial holding company framework introduces new capital requirements for tier-1 banking groups and governance reforms to ring-fence banking from non-banking activities. Sustained surveillance remains critical to preserve financial stability and mitigate emerging risks. RATIONALE FOR DECISION & POLICY IMPLICATIONS Global growth is moderating, with the prolonged Middle East conflict weighing on activity and fueling inflationary pressures across major economies. Central banks remain cautious, preserving policy space while navigating supply-driven shocks against weakening momentum. Domestically, the economy remains on a steady expansion path, with GDP growing by 3.89 per cent in Q1 2026 and high-frequency indicators pointing to sustained momentum. Headline inflation moderated to 15.91 per cent in June, ending three consecutive months of uptick, though food inflation remains elevated on supply constraints. Core inflation declined, supported by exchange rate stability, reaffirming that disinflation remains on track. External buffers are robust at US$52.52 billion, providing over 11 months of import cover, while the banking system has been reinforced through the successful recapitalization program. The IMF retained Nigeria's growth forecast at 4.1 per cent for 2026 and 4.3 per cent for 2027, supported by improved macroeconomic stability and favorable terms-of-trade. However, the Fund cautions that higher essential prices could worsen poverty and food insecurity, affecting 63 per cent of the population and 27 million Nigerians reinforcing the need for a balanced

policy approach that preserves price stability while safeguarding household welfare. The question, therefore, is what response is warranted. Tightening would be counterproductive as inflationary pressures are externally induced and already moderating; easing remains premature with inflation above target and geopolitical uncertainties unresolved. A hold decision is therefore the appropriate middle path, steady, patient, and anchored in the buffers we have built. Maintaining the MPR alongside tight reserve requirements will anchor liquidity, stabilize borrowing costs, and support growth. The asymmetric corridor will continue to channel liquidity toward productive lending, while active OMO operations and transparent FX communication will manage day-to-day liquidity and anchor expectations. Sustained surveillance of the banking system remains essential following the recapitalization program and proposed FHC framework reforms. CONCLUSION The evidence before us supports a steady hand. Domestic output remains resilient at 3.89 per cent, inflation is moderating, external buffers are strong at over US$52 billion, and the banking system remains sound. The IMF has retained Nigeria's growth forecast at 4.1 per cent for 2026 and 4.3 per cent for 2027, affirming the positive trajectory of the economy, while also cautioning that rising prices for essentials could worsen poverty and food insecurity, a risk that reinforces the need for a balanced policy approach. Having carefully weighed the prevailing risks and conditions, maintaining the current policy stance remains the most prudent course of action. The uptick in inflation is externally driven and already moderating, tightening would be premature, while easing risks unravelling the disinflation gains we have secured. A hold decision is therefore justified, it is evidence-based, consistent with our mandate, and aligned with sound monetary policy practice. This approach will continue to anchor liquidity, reinforce price and financial stability, and preserve the flexibility to respond as shocks evolve.

2. ALOYSIUS UCHE ORDU
Introduction
At this meeting, I voted to:
1. Maintain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.50 percent.
2. Retain the Standing Facilities Corridor around the MPR at +50/-450 basis
points.
3. Maintain the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 45.00 percent for deposit money
banks, 16.00 percent for merchant banks, and 75.00 percent for non-TSA public sector deposits.
4. Keep the Liquidity Ratio unchanged at 30.00 percent.
I believe this configuration keeps policy in sufficiently restrictive territory. Disinflation is continuing, but it is proceeding gradually, and renewed uncertainty in the global economy, particularly around energy markets, argues for vigilance and for keeping our options open. Our actions will continue to be guided by the totality of incoming data and the evolving balance of risks. Economic and financial developments Global developments I would characterize the environment surrounding this meeting as one of heightened uncertainty. Renewed hostilities in the Middle East, energy-market shocks, trade fragmentation, and corrections in AI and technology equities have all weighed on global growth and inflation, and we are watching these developments closely. The IMF’s July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projects that global growth could slow to 3.0 percent in 2026, down from the 3.5 percent average recorded in 2025, owing largely to the US-Iran war and elevated energy costs. That forecast, locked in on June 10, assumed the Strait of Hormuz would reopen by mid-July with traffic normalizing gradually. Instead, July 21 marked the tenth consecutive night of sustained US strikes on Iran. I would note that this renewed escalation could worsen volatility in commodity prices, strain policy buffers, and tighten financial conditions, which tells us that the growth outlook may ultimately prove gloomier than currently projected.

Energy prices have risen by more than 25 percent, and fragile supply chains continue to transmit conflict-related pressures into the broader economy. As a result, global inflation is expected to rise to 4.7 percent in 2026 from 4.1 percent in 2025, a setback to the disinflation process globally. With inflation still running above target in several jurisdictions, the scope for rapid easing remains limited. Consistent with that reality, the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Bank of Canada, the Bank of Ghana, the Reserve Bank of South Africa, and the Reserve Bank of India all held rates steady at their June/July 2026 meetings, reflecting renewed inflation concerns. I would add that the global rate outlook may shift further under the incoming Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, whose less explicit communication style could itself become a source of financial-market uncertainty. Against this backdrop, global capital flows are likely to remain sensitive to relative real returns, exchange-rate expectations, sovereign-risk perceptions, and policy credibility. For Nigeria, this environment presents both opportunities and risks. Higher real returns, renewed investor confidence, and stronger oil receipts could support reserve accumulation, while higher global prices could pass through to domestic inflation and erode household purchasing power. Domestic developments Output Turning to the domestic economy, the picture remains one of broad resilience, supported mainly by services. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show real output growth of 3.89 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, up from 3.13 percent a year earlier, driven largely by information and communication services as businesses increasingly adopt artificial intelligence. Improved refining activity and crop production also strengthened manufacturing and agriculture. Oil GDP rose to 2.57 percent from 1.87 percent in the same period last year, reflecting improved pipeline surveillance and turnaround maintenance at key facilities, with crude oil production rising from 1.31 million barrels per day in February to 1.56 million barrels per day in June 2026. That said, I think it is fair to say the economy could have benefited more from record global oil prices, which exceeded US$120 per barrel at the peak of the Middle East conflict, had domestic production been higher. Notwithstanding this expansion, the high-frequency data counsel some caution. The leading composite PMI recovered to 50.1 points in June from contraction in May, but industry and services remain weak as geopolitical

uncertainty continues to weigh on business sentiment. Near- to medium-term growth will therefore depend on sustaining key reforms, calibrating policy carefully, improving security, and capturing opportunities in pivotal sectors of the economy. Inflation On inflation, the disinflationary trend, temporarily interrupted by Middle East tensions and higher staple prices, resumed in June 2026. Headline inflation moderates slightly to 15.91 percent from 15.93 percent in May, while month￾on-month inflation slowed to 1.66 percent from 1.75 percent. Food inflation remains the principal driver, reflecting logistics costs and seasonal supply constraints. Core inflation also eased marginally but remains sticky, which underscores why we need to sustain policy credibility until disinflation is more firmly established. I want to be clear that near-term inflation risks remain tilted to the upside. The anticipated Super El Niño event raises real concerns about climate risk and food security across West Africa, with direct implications for food inflation here in Nigeria. Combined with energy shocks and supply disruptions, this could prolong price pressures. Policy must therefore remain vigilant, work to consolidate FX market stability, anchor expectations, and strengthen coordination across the relevant authorities. Monetary and financial conditions Monetary conditions remain appropriately tight, consistent with the Bank’s priority of bringing down inflation and preserving FX stability. Broad money expanded by 1.86 percent in May, below the programmed target of 11.47 percent and lower than in the preceding month. That increase was driven by a 6.59 percent rise in net domestic assets, mainly reflecting higher claims on government, while net foreign assets declined by 12.71 percent. I believe the Bank’s policy stance has helped curtail demand-side pressures, support positive real returns, and strengthen confidence in naira￾denominated assets. The successful conclusion of the banking sector recapitalisation exercise has further strengthened the resilience of the financial system and its capacity to support the broader economy. Aggregate market capitalisation stood at N203.11 trillion in June, compared with N217.28 trillion in May and N155.53 trillion at the start of 2026, reflecting renewed investor confidence and positive corporate earnings. The market received a further boost in early July after S&P Dow Jones Indices announced plans to reclassify the Nigerian capital market from a standalone market to a

frontier market, citing improved regulation and market integrity. On balance, I would characterize the Nigerian financial system as resilient and supportive of the real economy, though regulators must remain alert to emerging risks. Fiscal position While fiscal policy remains under pressure, I would note that the revenue challenge appears to be easing gradually. Total distribution to the three tiers of government increased from N1.969 trillion in January 2026 to N2.300 trillion in June 2026, driven by strong non-oil revenue performance. Over the first half of the year, N12.405 trillion was shared among the federal, state, and local governments, compared with N9.726 trillion over the same period in 2025, a trend that reinforces the narrative of an improving revenue profile, notwithstanding the challenges that persist. On the expenditure side, off-budget pressures stemming from wage demands, the election cycle, climate shocks, and infrastructure deficits continue to add to fiscal deficits and borrowing needs. Incomplete fiscal data also limits our ability to form a clear assessment of government fiscal performance, which in turn complicates liquidity management and inflation control. According to the Debt Management Office, public debt stood at N159.28 trillion as of end-December 2025 and remained within the 60 percent national threshold. Domestic and external borrowings accounted for 53.27 percent and 43.73 percent of the total debt stock, respectively, broadly in line with the 55:45 portfolio mix set out in the medium-term debt strategy for 2024–
2027. Despite this relative solvency, I think liquidity risks remain a legitimate
concern. The IMF estimates that interest payments will consume 53.7 percent of government revenue in 2026, up from 40.8 percent in 2024. Put simply, the debt sustainability challenge is largely a revenue issue. Fiscal policy must prioritize revenue reforms, including full implementation of Executive Order 9, 2026, which directs oil and gas revenue and related earnings into the Federation Account. Sustaining revenue reforms, improving expenditure efficiency, and maintaining fiscal transparency would all strengthen the fiscal outlook going forward. External sector The external sector strengthened on the back of sustained policy reforms and rising investor confidence. The overall balance of payments remained in surplus at US$2.38 billion in the first quarter of 2026, moderating from US$2.67 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 owing to lower reserve assets. The current

account surplus, however, rose by 256 percent to US$4.98 billion, or 6.09 percent of GDP, in the first quarter of 2026, compared with US$1.40 billion, or
1.61 percent of GDP, in the fourth quarter of 2025. This improvement reflected
a stronger goods account surplus, higher export receipts, lower petroleum product imports, and reduced primary income outflows. Gross external reserves rose to US$51.36 billion in June 2026 from US$50.52 billion in May, providing 10.74 months of import cover. This increase reflected crude oil-related tax receipts, third-party inflows, and improved foreign￾exchange market conditions, developments that reinforce our confidence in the external position. I believe reserves could rise further if the solid minerals sector is fully harnessed: formalizing artisanal gold mining, strengthening security across the mining value chain, and ensuring full declaration of gold exports could all support reserve accretion. Sustained confidence in the external position will depend on preserving reserves, maintaining policy consistency, and deepening autonomous and non-oil foreign-exchange supply. Risks and outlook Globally, renewed escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, higher energy and freight costs, tighter financing conditions, and rising trade fragmentation could weaken growth and revive inflationary pressures. For Nigeria specifically, the principal risks are higher imported inflation, renewed exchange-rate pressure, food supply disruptions, fiscal slippages, and weaker private-sector activity under tight financial conditions. I would note that these risks are partly mitigated by improved reserves, stronger banking-sector capitalisation, ongoing fiscal reforms, and the credibility gains that come from a consistent, data-driven monetary policy stance. So, the outlook, in my view, is one of cautious resilience. The disinflation path is not yet secure, food prices, energy costs, and inflation expectations all require close monitoring. Macroeconomic policy must remain coordinated and credible to avoid sending conflicting signals to economic agents. In this environment, monetary policy should remain evidence-based, forward￾looking, and clearly communicated. Our priority is to consolidate disinflation, anchor expectations, preserve exchange-rate stability, and support confidence, while retaining the flexibility to respond should incoming data materially alter the outlook. Fiscal and structural policies can reinforce these safeguards through stronger fiscal discipline and by better harnessing the opportunities available in the oil and solid minerals sectors.

Rationale for my vote
Let me explain the thinking behind my vote. My decision to maintain all policy parameters reflect the need to balance three considerations. First, headline inflation has eased only marginally, and food inflation remains a genuine concern. Second, renewed global uncertainty could quickly reverse recent gains through energy prices, exchange-rate expectations, and imported input costs. Third, the domestic economy has remained resilient, which suggests to me that the current stance can be maintained while we gather additional information. I want to be candid about the risks on both sides. A premature easing of policy could undermine the credibility of the disinflation process and reignite exchange-rate and price pressures. At the same time, further tightening at this stage could be disproportionate, given the recent moderation in headline inflation, improved reserves, and the need to avoid placing undue pressure on productive economic activity. Should disinflation become more broad-based and expectations remain well anchored, I would expect scope for recalibration to emerge over time. If risks intensify, however, we must be ready to respond decisively. Maintaining the MPR at 26.50 percent, while retaining the existing corridor, CRR, and liquidity ratio, therefore provides what I consider the most appropriate signal currently. It preserves restriction, supports positive real returns, sustains confidence in the naira, and gives the Committee the time it needs to assess whether the recent moderation in inflation will prove durable. For these reasons, I believe maintaining the current monetary policy settings is the right call at this juncture. It balances the need to consolidate disinflation with the imperative of safeguarding growth, financial stability, and external confidence, at a time when both the global and domestic outlook remain genuinely uncertain.

3. BANDELE A.G. AMOO
Given recent developments in the global and domestic economy, I hereby vote as follows:
a) Retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.50 per cent; b) Retain the Standing Facility corridor around the MPR at +50/-450 basis points; c) Retain the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 45.0 per cent for Commercial Banks and 16.0 per cent for Merchant Banks; d) Retain the 75.0 per cent CRR on non-TSA public sector deposits; and e) Retain the Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 30.0 per cent. My decision was based on the following considerations.
1. Global Economic Developments
Global economic activity remains resilient despite persistent uncertainties. Inflation in many advanced and emerging economies continues to moderate gradually, allowing several central banks to maintain a cautious policy pause. However, the recent resurgence of hostilities in the Middle East with its resultant spillover effects on global energy prices, coupled with trade￾related uncertainties, could pose risks to the outlook. Financial conditions remain relatively tight, while episodes of market volatility have underscored the importance of maintaining prudent macroeconomic policies in emerging market and developing economies. Consequently, the global environment continues to warrant caution, particularly for economies susceptible to external shocks and capital flow reversals.
2. Domestic Macroeconomic Developments
Domestic economic conditions continue to reflect the positive impact of ongoing macroeconomic reforms. Economic activity remains on a modest growth trajectory, supported primarily by the services sector and improving business confidence. The external sector has remained relatively stable, aided by improved foreign exchange market liquidity, stronger reserve buffers, and sustained confidence in recent policy measures. Recent inflation developments suggest that the disinflation process remains broadly on track, although the pace has been uneven. At 15.91%, Nigeria's year-on-year headline inflation moderated marginally in June 2026, from 15.93% recorded in May, recording a 0.02 percentage point decline and

reversing the gradual uptick observed in the previous months. This reflected the continued impact of favourable base effects and easing underlying price pressures. Month-on-month headline inflation declined from 1.75% to 1.66% in May, indicating that the pace of increase in consumer prices moderated during the review period. Core inflation declined to 15.92% year-onyear from 25.41% in the corresponding period of 2025, while its monthon-month levels eased to 1.66% from 1.94% in May, reflecting slower increases in underlying consumer prices. In contrast, the persistence of food supply challenges elevated the yearly and monthly food inflation to 17.52% and 3.75% respectively compared with their respective levels in corresponding and preceding months. This was driven by higher prices of key staples including yam tubers, pepper, beef, garri, cassava flour, crayfish, cowpea, Irish potatoes and fresh tomatoes, The banking sector remained sound, stable and resilient, with most prudential indicators aligning comfortably with the regulatory thresholds. Liquidity conditions, capital adequacy ratio, returns on equity and assets remained adequate, although the pattern of credit allocation continue to show a preference for government securities over lending to productive sectors of the economy. Also, macro-prudential and payment system policies were directed towards supporting growth as the CBN strives to strengthen the effectiveness of monetary policy implementation.
3.0 My Concern
My primary consideration at this meeting is the need to consolidate the gains already achieved in restoring macroeconomic stability while allowing sufficient time to observe how recent policy measures continue to transmit through the economy. The current stability in the foreign exchange market, gradual moderation in inflationary pressures, and resilience of the financial system represent important achievements that should be preserved. At this moment, neither further tightening nor premature easing appears justified. Additional tightening could impose unnecessary constraints on economic activity and private sector credit, while any relaxation of the current stance could risk reversing the progress already recorded in disinflation and exchange rate stability. The Committee's decision to retain all policy parameters therefore reflects a balanced and prudent approach. Maintaining the current stance will allow policymakers to better assess the persistence of recent improvements and

evaluate the effects of both domestic reforms and evolving global developments before taking further action. My concern, however, remains the persistence of weak structural drivers of inflation, particularly within the food segment. While recent inflation outcomes provide some grounds for optimism, sustainable moderation in food prices will require stronger support for agriculture. Greater fiscal focus, especially at the sub-national government levels, should be directed toward improving agricultural productivity, strengthening rural infrastructure, addressing insecurity in both farm and non-farm communities, expanding irrigation systems, and enhancing access to affordable finance across the agricultural value chain. Furthermore, investments in agricultural storage, transportation, processing, and market access facilities remain critical to reducing post-harvest losses and improving the efficiency of food distribution. A more coordinated approach between monetary and fiscal authorities in supporting agriculture will not only strengthen food security but also contribute meaningfully to achieving durable price stability. Beyond agriculture, continued government attention to critical infrastructure, including energy, transportation, digital and logistics networks, remains essential for reducing production costs and improving overall economic competitiveness. Sustained reforms in these areas will complement monetary policy efforts and support longterm growth. The outlook for the Nigerian economy remains cautiously positive. While inflation is expected to continue its gradual moderation over the medium term, risks still remain from global geopolitical developments, commodity price volatility, domestic supply-side constraints, and fiscal pressures. These uncertainties reinforce the need for policy vigilance and careful monitoring of incoming data. Consequently, provided the current disinflation trend is sustained, and exchange rate stability continue, the policy environment could gradually shift towards a more accommodating stance, increasing the likelihood of downward review of monetary policy instruments at subsequent MPC meeting in the near future.
4.0 Conclusion
Given the view that policy tightening would transmit to the economy rapidly, upside inflation risks are more prominent across possible future outcomes. I stand with the committee to continue to monitor closely the situation in the Middle East and how its impact circulates through the economy. Together, we stand ready to act as may be necessary to ensure that the CPI inflation remains on track to meet the single digit target in the medium term.

4. EMEM USORO
   At the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held on July 20 - 21, 2026, I voted to:
   i. Retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.50%.
   ii. Retain the Asymmetric Corridor at +50/–450 basis points around the
   MPR.
   iii. Retain the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) for commercial banks at 45%, for
   merchant banks at 16%, and at 75% on non-TSA public deposits. My vote was shaped by one central policy judgement: the economy now requires disciplined patience rather than additional tightening. I, therefore, favoured maintaining a restrictive stance to sustain disinflation, while preserving sufficient policy space to support output recovery amid evolving global and domestic conditions. One key consideration to the policy calculus was the uncertain global environment. Growth momentum was observed to have moderated across key advanced economies, while many emerging markets continued to navigate tight external financing conditions. Although global inflation retreated from recent peaks, underlying price pressures remain above target in several jurisdictions, keeping major central banks cautious and data dependent. For Nigeria, this continues to transmit through capital flow volatility, exchange rate expectations and imported inflation risks. Commodity and global financial market developments add another layer to the policy narrative. Volatility in crude oil and food prices, geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions and changing expectations around global monetary easing continue to affect fiscal receipts, foreign exchange inflows, imported inflation and domestic energy costs. At the same time, global risk sentiment remains highly sensitive to interest rate expectations and sovereign risk perceptions. Against this backdrop, the domestic policy setting tells a story of cumulative restraint. The Committee has already delivered substantial tightening, producing materially tighter monetary and financial conditions. Given the well-established lags in transmission, further tightening at this stage could amount to over-calibration before the full effects of earlier actions pass through the interest rate, credit, exchange rate and expectations channels. The inflation picture is also beginning to shift. Recent headline inflation outcomes suggest that disinflation is gaining traction, supported by restrictive monetary conditions, improved exchange rate stability, easing imported inflation and the fading of earlier cost-push shocks. Yet, the underlying

narrative remains complex: food inflation is still largely supply-induced, reflecting insecurity, logistics constraints, elevated energy costs, climate shocks and agricultural value-chain inefficiencies. These rigidities limit the marginal effectiveness of further rate increases and heighten the risk of disproportionate output costs. In view of this, external buffers remain critical to the policy choice. Divergent global monetary policy paths, commodity price volatility and geopolitical uncertainty continue to influence exchange rate expectations, capital flows and reserve adequacy. Maintaining adequate buffers is therefore essential to sustaining external resilience and safeguarding macroeconomic stability. The growth trend, however, counsels caution. Recent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) outcomes show resilience despite restrictive financial conditions, supported by improved foreign exchange market functioning, ongoing reforms, resilient financial intermediation and gradually improving business confidence. Nevertheless, the economy is approaching a zone where the marginal disinflationary benefit of additional tightening could be outweighed by adverse effects on investment, credit creation, employment and potential output. Financial conditions reinforce this assessment. The banking sector remains liquid and adequately capitalised, while recapitalisation has strengthened the system’s intermediation capacity. Exchange rate stability has also moderated pass-through to domestic prices and improved the operating environment for monetary policy transmission. Looking ahead, I expect inflation moderation to continue, but at a measured pace. The baseline outlook rests on exchange rate stability, sustained reforms, improved food supply and broadly favourable external financing conditions. However, the balance of risks remains tilted toward renewed price and external sector pressures from commodity shocks, adverse weather, insecurity, tighter global financial conditions and geopolitical escalation, with implications for inflation, growth and reserves. Concomitantly, these considerations make the existing policy configuration the most appropriate course of action. Holding policy steady preserves the credibility of the Committee’s anti-inflation commitment, allows cumulative tightening to transmit fully and reduces the risk of policy overshooting. I remain committed to a data-dependent and forward-looking framework and stand ready to support recalibration should the balance of risks shift materially.

5. LAMIDO ABUBAKAR YUGUDA
   At the 306th meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee held on July 20 and 21, 2026, I voted to retain the Monetary Policy Rate at 26.50 percent, the Standing Facilities corridor at +50/−450 basis points around the MPR, and the Cash Reserve Requirement at 45 percent for Deposit Money Banks, 16 percent for Merchant Banks, and 75 percent for non-TSA public sector deposits. My decision to maintain the current policy stance reflects the need to preserve macroeconomic stability amid fragile disinflation, heightened global uncertainty, capital flow risks, fiscal constraints, and intensifying geopolitical tensions. Rationale for the Decision Inflation and Disinflation Trajectory Headline inflation moderated only marginally to 15.91 percent in June 2026 from 15.93 percent in May, supported by naira stability and lower fuel prices. Food inflation, the largest component of the inflation basket, rose for the fifth consecutive month to 17.52 percent from 16.96 percent, driven by supply chain disruptions and elevated transportation costs. Although month-on￾month inflation eased to 1.66 percent, its lowest level in five months, this respite is insufficient to justify a premature policy shift. The decline from 34.8 percent in December 2024 is encouraging, but the disinflation path remains exposed to external shocks. Rising energy and commodity prices linked to the Middle East conflict could feed quickly into domestic prices, particularly food and transportation costs. Monetary policy must therefore remain sufficiently restrictive to keep inflation expectations anchored. Global Monetary Policy Stance The global monetary policy environment also argues for caution. The new US Federal Reserve leadership has reaffirmed an anti-inflationary stance and signalled that interest rates may remain elevated for longer. Other major central banks are similarly adopting a wait-and-see posture, creating an unfavourable setting for portfolio flows to emerging markets. In this context, easing would risk undermining Nigeria’s credibility with international investors and could trigger capital flow reversals. Maintaining a restrictive stance is therefore necessary to support exchange rate stability, preserve investor confidence, and sustain the gains already recorded in the foreign exchange market.

External Sector Pressures
External reserves rose to $52.5 billion by mid-July, the highest level in 17 years, reflecting improved foreign exchange inflows and stronger confidence in the reform trajectory. This achievement validates the current policy framework, but it remains dependent on sustained inflows in a volatile global environment. A credible monetary stance is therefore essential to protect reserve accumulation and exchange rate stability. Fiscal Constraints Fiscal conditions further strengthen the case for caution. Elevated public debt and constrained fiscal space limit the economy’s ability to absorb shocks, placing greater responsibility on monetary policy to preserve price and currency stability. Easing monetary conditions in the face of these pressures would risk worsening exchange rate pass-through, inflation expectations, and debt-servicing vulnerabilities. Geopolitical Risk and Oil Prices Geopolitical risks remain a major source of uncertainty. The intensification of US-Israeli military operations against Iran raises the probability of disruption to energy markets, global supply chains, and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Although crude oil prices have not yet spiked sharply, the risk of escalation warrants vigilance rather than policy relaxation. A tight stance provides a useful buffer against such shocks by preserving policy credibility, limiting capital flight risks, and preventing inflation expectations from becoming unanchored. If external shocks materialise, the Bank will be better positioned to respond from a position of credibility and restraint. Conclusion The decision to hold all policy parameters steady reflects a balanced assessment of the risks. Inflation is moderating only gradually, food prices remain under pressure, global monetary conditions are restrictive, capital flows to emerging markets are vulnerable, fiscal space is limited, and geopolitical risks are rising. Under these circumstances, maintaining a steady and credible policy stance is the most prudent course. It supports the price stability mandate, preserves investor confidence, anchors exchange rate expectations, and safeguards the external position. We must be steadfast and remain alert to the evolving risks.

6. MUHAMMAD SANI ABDULLAHI
   My Vote
   The 305th At this 306th meeting of the MPC, the key risk factors considered include headline inflation, which has persistently clustered around the 15 per cent threshold since January 2026; renewed hostilities between the US and Iran, which could spill over and further exacerbate core inflation; excess reserves of deposit money banks (DMBs) and SDF placements which could undermine the MPC’s credibility when inflation risks are rising; election-related fiscal pressures; and overall inflationary pressures, which could be transmitted through transportation and production cost channels, thereby reinforcing broader cost-push inflationary dynamics. Persistent energy cost pass-through and excess liquidity conditions could undermine the effectiveness of the Bank’s restrictive monetary policy stance and weaken the intended disinflationary impulse. Complementary structural policy measures will therefore be required to address the underlying food and energy price drivers of inflation and support more durable price stability. In my view, Nigeria’s macroeconomic policy stance should remain firmly anchored on price stability, exchange rate resilience, financial system soundness, and fiscal discipline. From available data, the economy is operating in a difficult global environment marked by renewed geopolitical tensions, elevated energy and commodity price volatility, tighter global financial conditions and heightened uncertainty around capital flows. Recent global assessments point to uneven growth, stalled disinflation and downside risks from conflict, commodity￾market disruptions and financial-market repricing. In this context and based on available data, I believe that monetary policy should avoid premature easing. We should maintain the current policy stance, which I consider to be at a sufficiently restrictive level, until there is clear, sustained evidence that inflation expectations are firmly anchored, exchange-rate pressures are contained and underlying inflation is on a durable downward path. Although exchange rates have remained broadly stable for over one year, imported inflation risks from energy prices, commodity-price shocks, and geopolitical tensions remain important. As I stated at the MPC meeting in May, the overall priority should be to restore effective policy transmission of previous tightening measures while safeguarding long-term price and external stability. Thus, further tightening could hinder the ongoing recovery by suppressing credit, raising borrowing costs, and discouraging investment. Consequently, a hold decision, supported by stronger policy anchors, would support the ongoing disinflation without stifling growth.

Specifically, I voted to:

1. Retain the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.50 per cent.
2. Retain the Standing Facilities corridor around the MPR to +50/-
   450 basis points.
3. Retain the Cash Reserve Ratio of Deposit Money Banks at 45.0
   per cent and Merchant Banks at 16 per cent.
4. Retain a 75 per cent CRR on non-TSA public sector deposits.
   My Considerations
   The uncertainty around developments in the Middle East will remain a persistent source of domestic inflationary pressure. Based on available data, global uncertainty and the domestic political transition suggest that the appropriate policy posture, in my view, is one of coordinated caution:
   preserving credibility, containing inflation risks, protecting external buffers, and ensuring that fiscal, monetary, and prudential policies reinforce one another. Thus, the role of monetary policy in addressing energy-price shocks will remain limited to anchoring inflation expectations in the short-to-medium term and preventing possible second-round effects from such shocks. Accordingly, three key issues stand out for me. First, there is a need to retain the MPR at a level consistent with disinflation objectives, intensify liquidity sterilisation where excess reserves threaten policy transmission, and communicate clearly that easing will follow only after sustained reductions in inflation and exchange-rate pressures. Second, there is a need to strengthen coordination with the fiscal authorities to reduce inflationary and debt risks. Strengthening revenue collection, prioritising essential and productivity￾enhancing expenditure, limiting election-related spending pressures, and adopting a credible medium-term debt strategy to reduce rollover risks and rebuild fiscal space will be necessary. Third, there is a need to safeguard external and financial sector stability. In this regard, preserving external reserves by strengthening the extant foreign exchange management policies that have engendered stability remains important. Additionally, strengthening the financial sector after recapitalisation through capital planning and stress testing against energy price, exchange rate, and interest rate shocks will be necessary. Although headline inflation remains elevated at 15.91 per cent, recent month-on-month data continues to show some moderation from previous highs. Accordingly, the most balanced policy option is to hold the MPR at
   26.50 per cent while retaining a tight anti-inflation posture, intensifying liquidity
   sterilisation, and strengthening coordination with fiscal authorities. This

approach, supported by stronger policy communication, will preserve the Bank’s credibility and support price and exchange rate stability. Inflation Trends and Dynamics National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) data, rebased to the 2024 CPI reference year, show that headline inflation remained structurally elevated in June 2026, easing only marginally to 15.91 per cent from 15.93 per cent in May, following 15.69 per cent in April. The persistence of elevated inflationary pressure was primarily attributable to sustained food-price dynamics, alongside intensifying core inflation and imported food inflation, which collectively reinforced broad-based price pressures within the inflation basket. Other key underlying components of headline inflation also showed mixed outcomes. For example, in June 2026, food inflation increased to 17.52 per cent from 16.96 per cent in may reflecting supply pressures and domestic production conditions, while imported food inflation moderated to 13.63 per cent from 14.66 per cent. Core inflation, however, declined to 15.92 per cent from 16.82 per cent, demonstrating that monetary tightening is softening demand-side pressures and that the Bank’s policy stance on curbing underlying inflation is gaining traction. Month-on-month, headline inflation remained at 1.7 per cent in June and May 2026, down from 2.1 per cent in April 2026. This moderation was driven largely by core inflation, which declined further to 1.66 per cent in June 2026 from 1.94 per cent in May. Food inflation, on the other hand, increased over the same period, while imported food inflation also registered upward pressure. Real output growth was 3.89 per cent in Q1 2026, down from 4.07 per cent in Q4 2025, suggesting resilient output conditions and strengthening economic fundamentals, particularly in non-oil sector growth. External reserves and the foreign exchange market remain broadly stable and are likely to improve with higher oil production, increased diaspora remittances and sustained investor confidence. These domestic and external conditions reinforce the need for a cautious, data-dependent policy stance over the near term. Overall, the near-term outlook favours a hold policy stance: maintaining tight monetary conditions to anchor expectations while strengthening fiscal coordination, liquidity management, and supply-side interventions to protect the recovery and deepen disinflation.

Outlook
The near-term outlook for Nigeria’s economy for the rest of 2026 remains one of cautious optimism, given the significant downside risks from emerging global trends. Growth is expected to remain resilient, supported by relative exchange rate stability, improved oil receipts, continued reform gains, stronger non-oil activity and the post-recapitalisation resilience of the banking sector. Inflation is likely to moderate only gradually, as recent easing in headline and core inflation remains fragile and could be reversed by renewed energy price shocks, imported inflation and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The main risks to this outlook are food price pressures, persistent structural bottlenecks, excess liquidity that weakens policy transmission and election￾related fiscal injections ahead of the 2027 elections. These risks require a careful balance between sustaining disinflation, preserving external stability and avoiding unnecessary constraints on recovery. Nigeria’s financial system outlook remains favourable, underpinned by the recent recapitalisation exercise and prudential indicators that remain broadly within regulatory thresholds. Against this backdrop, a hold decision best balances the need to sustain disinflation, preserve external stability, support financial-system soundness and avoid unnecessary constraints on growth.

7. MURTALA SABO SAGAGI
   Context
   The 306th meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) held on July 20 – 21, 2026, at a time when global uncertainty has somewhat heightened on account of the renewed hostilities in the Middle East, with attendant risks to energy prices, freight and logistics costs, and the broader global disinflation outlook. Domestically, headline inflation eased marginally to 15.91 per cent in June 2026, from 15.93 per cent in May, a decline of 0.02 percentage points. After a careful review of the available data and a thorough assessment of domestic and global conditions, I was convinced that retaining all monetary policy parameters unchanged remains the most prudent course of action at this meeting. I also held a strong opinion that the relative stability achieved should be augmented with deliberate policy action to stimulate domestic productivity using a combination of fiscal and monetary tools. In my assessment, annual growth rates of less than 5% is insufficient to guarantee stability and restore welfare loses due to reforms. In essence, the current view of growth in the country needs to be redefined and refocused on increased private sector participation in areas where Nigeria possesses comparative or competitive advantages. Without innovative fiscal and monetary policy actions aimed at promoting disciplined spending and stimulating the growth of strategic industries and sectors, the current efforts to withstand shocks and curve inflation, will, at best, remain transitional. GLOBAL AND DOMESTIC ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT Global Global economic conditions have grown more uncertain since the Committee's last meeting, reflecting the renewed escalation of hostilities in the Middle East and the associated risks to energy markets, shipping routes, and global supply chains. This has reinforced upside risks to global inflation, particularly through elevated energy and freight costs, at a time when several advanced-economy central banks were already contending with sticky core inflation and have consequently adopted a cautious, wait-and￾see posture on further monetary easing. In many emerging market economies, exchange rate pressures and imported inflation continue to complicate the path to disinflation. This global backdrop of heightened uncertainty and monetary caution reinforces, rather than diminishes, the case for the Committee to remain circumspect. Key downside risks to the outlook include a further escalation of the Middle East conflict and its impact on global energy supply chains; tighter-than-expected global financial conditions as major central banks continue to diverge in their policy paths;

and the risk that elevated public debt and fiscal deficits in several economies could further narrow policy space and amplify capital flow volatility to emerging markets, including Nigeria. Domestic Nigeria's real GDP grew by 3.89 per cent in Q1 2026, moderating from the
4.07 per cent recorded in Q4 2025, even as both the oil and non-oil sectors
continued to make positive contributions to output. This is a reminder that the growth recovery is not strong and inclusive enough to deliver a sustained wealth creation trajectory. On prices, headline inflation (year-on-year) eased for a second consecutive month to 15.91 per cent in June 2026, from 15.93 per cent in May, a decline of just 0.02 percentage points and the slowest pace of improvement recorded in recent months. More concerning, food inflation rose to 17.52 per cent in June, from 16.96 per cent in May, reflecting the continuing toll of high inputs, transportation and logistics costs, as well as insecurity in farming communities. Core inflation, by contrast, moderated to
15.92 per cent in June, from 16.82 per cent in May, an encouraging signal
that underlying demand-side pressures are broadly contained, even as the persistence of food-driven inflation underscores the fragility of the overall disinflation trend. Nigeria's external sector has remained a source of strength. Gross external reserves stood at US$52.5 billion as at July 22, 2026, comfortably above the internationally recommended minimum of three months of import cover and reflecting sustained foreign exchange inflows and continued exchange rate stability. This robust buffer continues to reinforce investor confidence and provides an important cushion against the external shocks associated with the renewed Middle East crisis. Notwithstanding these gains, the durability of the disinflation process, particularly on the food side, remains closely tied to structural and fiscal fundamentals. Overtime, rural farmers and small businesses round the agricultural value chains have not witnessed any significant improvement in their conditions. This an indication that governments at all levels have not been very helpful in reducing pressure on food prices in spite of budgetary allocations and development supports. MAJOR ECONOMIC CONSIDERATIONS An Inflation Ease That Falls Short of the Threshold for Loosening The 0.02 percentage point decline in headline inflation recorded in June 2026 is positive but marginal. It is encouraging that the disinflation trend has not reversed, and that core inflation continues to moderate, but a decline of this magnitude, particularly when food inflation is simultaneously rising, does not provide reasonable relief to justify loosening the current policy stance.

Emerging External Headwinds requires Caution, Not Complacency The renewed escalation of the Middle East conflict represents an evolving risk to the global energy and freight outlook, with a direct bearing on Nigeria's import-dependent food and manufacturing supply chains. These emerging headwinds have arguably contributed to the uptick in energy prices with attendant pass-through to domestic prices. Resilience of the External Position Provides a Buffer, not a Trigger for Easing Nigeria's external reserves of US$52.5 billion, well above the recommended import-cover threshold, together with continued exchange rate stability, provide a valuable cushion against imported inflationary shocks. The external buffer affords the Committee the space to remain patient and vigilant. The Imperative of Fiscal-Monetary Collaboration The ongoing efforts to deepen collaboration between the fiscal and monetary authorities is highly notable. The recent engagements between the fiscal authorities and the Bank on exchange rate stability, spending alignment, and broader macroeconomic coordination were instructive. The conversation, however, should be extended to cover holistic economic revitalization with special emphasis on rural economy and strategic sectors that would ensure food and energy security. Debt accumulation and excessive or procyclical fiscal spending, particularly election-cycle releases are critical factors that could easily returns the country to debt crisis regime and counteract the disinflationary gains. Hence, the role of private sector should be embedded and be made visible in the envisaged holistic fiscal￾monetary policy action. Food Inflation and the Fragility of the Disinflation Trend The renewed rise in food inflation to 17.52 per cent in June is a further testimony that Nigeria is food insecure. Overtime, varied agricultural and rural development policies have been implemented but with unimpressive results. The structural bottlenecks of agricultural productivity and value chain development are well known but limited attention is on placed tackling the biding constraints meaningfully. This explains why the ease in food prices from 2025 is no driven largely by domestic food production but by imports. Until genuine agricultural transformation is undertaken drawing strengths from public and private capital and participation, the durability of the broader disinflation trend cannot be taken for granted. My Vote ❖ MPR: Retained at 26.5 per cent; ❖ Standing Facilities Corridor: Retained at +50/−450 basis points around the MPR;

❖ Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR): Retained at 45.00 per cent for Deposit Money Banks; 16.00 per cent for Merchant Banks; and 75.00 per cent for non￾TSA public sector deposits. Policy Recommendations Looking ahead, I recommend the following:
I. Sustained Vigilance amid Emerging Headwinds: the CBN should maintain
close and continuous monitoring of the evolving Middle East crisis and its potential pass-through to domestic energy, freight, and food prices, and should stand ready to act decisively and innovatively. The current tools should be augmented with context specific measures to curtail inflation and provide reasonable space for the economy to grow.
II. Deepening Fiscal-Monetary Collaboration: Without compromising the
independence and razor-sharp focus on inflation of the Bank, efforts to ensure enduring stability and sustainable wealth creation should be worthy of consideration. Thus, an architecture that would eventually metamorphose into a cohesive fiscal and monetary policy action to address excessive speeding, debt accumulation, debt servicing and stimulating the growth of strategic sectors/industries should be crafted and executed.
III. Food Inflation and Agricultural Supply Chains: the renewed uptick in food
inflation calls for urgent, coordinated action, including measures to improve the affordability and availability of key agricultural inputs, strengthen rural security, and upgrade rural road and storage infrastructure, so as to enhance the durability of the overall disinflation trend.
IV. Exchange Rate and External Reserve Management: the CBN should
continue to manage exchange rate stability prudently, leveraging the current reserve buffer to absorb any short-term volatility arising from the renewed Middle East crisis, while sustaining the policies that continue to attract remittance and export inflows.

8. MUSTAPHA AKINKUNMI
1. Introduction
I reaffirm my support for maintaining the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) at 26.50 per cent. Furthermore, I vote to retain all other policy parameters at their current levels: the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) for Deposit Money Banks at 45.00 per cent, Merchant Banks at 16.00 per cent, and non-TSA public sector deposits at 75.00 per cent; the Liquidity Ratio at 30.00 per cent; and the Standing Facility Corridor at +50/–450 basis points around the MPR. This is consistent with the policy decision taken at the May 2026 MPC meeting, where the Committee retained the MPR at 26.5 per cent and maintained the key policy parameters. This position is consistent with the policy stance I have maintained since joining the Committee in 2024. Throughout this period, I have consistently argued that inflationary pressures in Nigeria are predominantly structural, driven largely by food price dynamics, energy costs and exchange-rate pass￾through effects. While acknowledging the progress achieved in stabilising the foreign exchange market and moderating headline inflation, I have maintained that policy easing should be undertaken only when disinflation becomes sufficiently broad-based and durable. In my assessment, recent improvements, while encouraging, do not yet provide sufficient assurance that inflationary pressures have moderated on a sufficiently broad-based and durable basis to justify further policy easing. My decision at this meeting is anchored on a careful assessment of recent global and domestic developments. While headline inflation moderated marginally in June 2026, the underlying inflation picture remains fragile. Food price pressures have not moderated sufficiently, energy-related cost pressures remain elevated, and global uncertainty continues to pose risks to the inflation outlook. In my assessment, the economy has not yet reached a sufficiently comfortable position to justify further policy easing. Economic and Financial Context While the global environment remains challenging, the Nigerian economy has continued to demonstrate resilience, particularly on the external side. According to the IMF's July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update, global growth is projected at 3.0 per cent in 2026 and 3.4 per cent in 2027, while global inflation is expected to rise to 4.7 per cent in 2026, then declining to 3.9 per cent in 2027. Renewed geopolitical tensions, commodity price volatility and tighter financial conditions continue to pose risks to emerging market economies, including Nigeria.

Notwithstanding these external headwinds, Nigeria’s external position has strengthened considerably. External reserves rose to about US$51.9 billion as at mid-July 2026, supported by stronger export earnings, improved foreign exchange inflows and sustained investor confidence. The foreign exchange market has also remained relatively stable, aided by improved reserve accretion and better market management. This has helped moderate exchange-rate pass-through relative to the more volatile conditions experienced in earlier periods. However, the recent improvement in foreign exchange market conditions should not be interpreted as sufficient justification for policy easing, particularly given the persistence of other inflationary pressures. Liquidity conditions in the banking system remained relatively robust during the review period, reflecting improved external inflows, fiscal injections and sustained market confidence. According to FMDA Monthly Market Report (June 2026), average system liquidity stood at approximately ₦4.58 trillion in June 2026, while projected inflows for July 2026 were estimated at about ₦12.39 trillion, driven largely by ₦9.01 trillion in OMO maturities and expected FAAC disbursements of about ₦2.0 trillion. Despite ongoing sterilisation efforts, liquidity remained ample, underscoring the need for continued liquidity management to prevent excess liquidity from weakening monetary policy transmission and fuelling inflationary pressures. Maintaining disciplined liquidity conditions therefore remains important to preserving macroeconomic stability and anchoring expectations. Domestic inflation developments present a mixed picture. Headline inflation moderated only marginally to 15.91 per cent in June 2026, from 15.93 per cent in May 2026, indicating only limited progress in the disinflation process. However, food inflation increased to 17.52 per cent from 16.96 per cent, while month-on-month food inflation accelerated to 3.75 per cent from 2.98 per cent in the preceding month. This suggests that underlying price pressures, particularly those associated with food supply constraints, remain significant. The moderation in headline inflation is therefore not yet sufficiently broad￾based. Given the central role of food prices in household expenditure and inflation expectations, the continued increase in food inflation reinforces the argument for caution. Energy-related conditions also remain a concern. Despite the modest moderation in headline inflation, fuel and transportation costs continue to exert pressure on domestic prices. The persistence of elevated PMS prices has sustained logistics and distribution costs across the economy, limiting the extent to which improvements in exchange-rate stability and other macroeconomic indicators can translate into broader price relief.

Consequently, energy-related cost pressures remain an important source of inflation risk and argue for continued policy caution. Oil production has improved, with June 2026 crude oil and condensates output reported at approximately 1.74 million barrels per day, of which crude oil accounted for 1.56 million barrels per day. This has supported external receipts and reserve accumulation, although sustaining and further strengthening production remains critical to enhancing fiscal revenues, reserve accretion and overall macroeconomic stability. Fiscal conditions have also improved in nominal terms. The July 2026 FAAC distribution showed gross revenue of approximately ₦4.50 trillion, deductions of about ₦1.95 trillion, and net distributable revenue of approximately ₦2.55 trillion. While this provides support to government revenue performance, it does not eliminate the need for continued fiscal discipline, particularly in light of persistent expenditure pressures and debt-service obligations. Rationale for the Vote Since the last meeting, domestic conditions have improved in some respects, particularly in relation to external reserves, foreign exchange liquidity and oil￾sector performance. However, inflation outcomes do not yet provide sufficient comfort for a further reduction in the policy rate. Headline inflation moderated only marginally, food inflation accelerated, and PMS-related cost pressures remain elevated. I have consistently maintained that inflationary pressures in Nigeria are predominantly structural, driven mainly by food price dynamics, energy costs, supply-side constraints and exchange-rate pass-through. In this context, monetary policy should remain focused on anchoring expectations and preserving exchange-rate stability, while recognising that interest-rate action alone cannot fully resolve supply-induced inflation. With the MPR at 26.50 per cent and headline inflation at 15.91 per cent, Nigeria’s real policy rate stands at approximately 10.59 per cent. This suggests that monetary conditions remain firmly restrictive. The issue before the Committee is therefore not the adequacy of the current policy stance, but whether inflation has moderated sufficiently and sustainably to warrant further easing. In my view, the available evidence does not yet support such a conclusion. A comparison with selected peer economies further illustrates this point. Although Nigeria’s monetary policy stance is already highly restrictive, inflation remains significantly higher than in many comparable African economies. In Ghana, inflation stood at approximately 5.3 per cent in June 2026, while Kenya and South Africa recorded inflation rates of about 6.4 per

cent and 5.0 per cent, respectively. For instance, the South African Reserve Bank kept its policy repo rate unchanged at 7.0 percent on 23 July 2026, despite inflation rising to 5.0 percent. Meanwhile, the National Bank of Ethiopia raised its benchmark policy rate from 15.0 percent to 16.0 percent on 13 July 2026, its first adjustment since the benchmark was introduced in mid-2024, to curb inflationary pressures. Against this backdrop, policy rates in these economies imply positive real interest rates; however, Nigeria’s implied real policy rate of approximately
10.59 per cent remains among the most restrictive in the region. This
underscores the fact that the current monetary stance is already strongly geared towards containing inflation and anchoring expectations. Nevertheless, Nigeria’s inflation environment differs materially from those of its peers, reflecting the continued influence of food-price pressures, exchange￾rate pass-through effects and elevated energy-related costs. Consequently, while monetary conditions are restrictive by regional standards, a premature easing of policy could undermine the gains already achieved in price and exchange-rate stability. The challenge before the Committee is therefore not to tighten further, but to preserve policy credibility until disinflation becomes more broad-based, durable and sustainable. The current stance has helped support exchange-rate stability and reserve accretion. It is therefore important to preserve these gains. A hold decision therefore provides the Committee with an opportunity to evaluate whether the recent moderation in headline inflation can be sustained, whether food inflation begins to reverse, and whether underlying price pressures ease sufficiently to support a broader and more durable disinflation process. Policy Implications and Outlook The outlook for the Nigerian economy remains cautiously positive, but not without significant risks. Growth is expected to be supported by improved oil production, stronger external reserves, sustained non-oil activity and continued confidence in reforms. The IMF's July 2026 World Economic Outlook projects that Nigeria would record the third-highest economic growth rate among Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs) in 2026, with real GDP growth of 4.0 percent. This projection places Nigeria behind India (6.4 percent) and China (4.6 percent), while ranking ahead of Brazil (2.4 percent) and Saudi Arabia (1.7 percent). However, the inflation outlook remains vulnerable to food supply disruptions, energy costs, global commodity price movements and exchange-rate pressures. The global environment reinforces the need for caution. The IMF July 2026 World Economic Outlook Update projection that global inflation will rise to 4.7 per cent in 2026 suggests that imported inflation pressures may persist.

Renewed geopolitical tensions could also affect oil prices, freight costs, fertiliser prices and capital flows, all of which have implications for Nigeria’s inflation and exchange-rate outlook. Domestically, the rise in food inflation is particularly important. It shows that the slight moderation in headline inflation should be interpreted carefully. The food basket remains the clearest transmission channel through which structural constraints affect household welfare, wage expectations and the broader inflation process. Until food prices show a more decisive and sustained decline, the Committee should avoid a premature shift towards easing. The current monetary stance should therefore be maintained, while liquidity management operations are strengthened to improve policy transmission. Banking system liquidity remains an important area for close monitoring, as excess liquidity can weaken the effectiveness of the policy rate and reduce the disinflationary impact of earlier tightening. Policy coordination remains essential. Monetary restraint must be complemented by fiscal discipline, increased domestic energy production, improved food supply chains, stronger security around agricultural production zones, and sustained investment in transport and logistics infrastructure. These measures are necessary to address the structural sources of inflation and reduce the burden placed on monetary policy. Conclusion Our In conclusion, I support the retention of the current policy stance. The economy has made progress, particularly in the areas of external reserves, foreign exchange market stability and oil-sector performance. However, food prices have not moderated sufficiently, PMS prices remain elevated, and global uncertainty has increased. These conditions suggest that the economy has not yet reached a sufficiently comfortable position to accommodate further easing without risking a reversal of the gains already achieved in price and exchange-rate stability. The appropriate policy response at this meeting is therefore to hold. This will allow the Committee to consolidate the gains achieved so far, continue to anchor expectations, support exchange-rate stability, and assess whether the recent marginal moderation in headline inflation will become more durable and broad-based. Accordingly, I vote to:
 Retain the Monetary Policy Rate at 26.50 per cent;

 Retain the Standing Facility Corridor around the MPR at +50/–450 basis points;  Maintain the Cash Reserve Ratio at 45.00 per cent for Deposit Money Banks, 16.00 per cent for Merchant Banks, and 75.00 per cent for non￾TSA public sector deposits; and  Retain the Liquidity Ratio at 30.00 per cent.

9. PHILIP IKEAZOR – 306th MPC Meeting Statement
   Monetary policy is effectively moderating inflation, and available indicators show no risk of renewed price pressures. Nonetheless, the disinflation path remains fragile due to persistent geopolitical tensions and evolving global supply‑chain disruptions. Given these uncertainties, maintaining the prevailing monetary policy stance, for me, remains the most prudent course of action. I therefore voted to retain:
   (1) The MPR at 26.50 per cent.
   (2) The Standing Facility corridor around the MPR at +50/-450 basis points. (3) The CRR for Commercial Banks at 45.0 per cent. (4) The CRR for Merchant Banks at 16.0 per cent. (5) The CRR for non-TSA public sector at 75.0 per cent. Global and Domestic Developments Renewed geopolitical tensions and energy supply disruptions have moderated U.S. inflation but triggered a sharp rebound in oil prices, heightening global inflation risks and prompting investors to reassess future interest rate paths. The IMF has lowered its 2026 global growth forecast by 0.5 percentage point, with inflation expected to rise to 4.7 per cent due to persistent commodity price pressures. Nonetheless, a modest recovery to 3.4 per cent is projected for 2027. Domestically, growth remained positive at 3.89 per cent in Q1-2026, though momentum has weakened since mid-2025. The June PMI shows broad-based contraction outside agriculture, signalling softening economic conditions even as inflation eased in June, driven by continued declines in core inflation, reflecting effective monetary policy transmission. Headline and core inflation declined on both monthly and annual bases, with core inflation easing to 15.92 per cent year‑on‑year. In contrast, food inflation rose to 17.52 per cent, though this increase is expected to be temporary as improving agricultural conditions should help ease price pressures. Imported food and farm produce inflation continued to fall, while energy inflation contracted sharply month‑on‑month but remained elevated on an annual basis. Rural inflation indicators suggest that monetary policy is having a stronger impact in rural areas than in urban areas.

Overall, global and domestic conditions remain mixed and uncertain, shaped by evolving supply shock dynamics and the effectiveness of domestic policy responses to geopolitical and geoeconomic risks. My Considerations Inflation appears to have reached a turning point. The impact of monetary policy is now clearly visible across the economy and, for the first time in many months, has effectively moderated inflation pressures even in rural areas. Growth remained positive in Q1 2026 but has slowed. The PMI results show broad sectoral contraction except in agriculture, signalling weakening momentum, while employment indicators confirm a slowing economy as firms scale back hiring. Labour market conditions are also weakening. Unemployment is projected to rise by 4.5 per cent in Q1 2026, aligning with subdued PMI and slower output growth. The moderation in the Employment PMI reinforces signs of a cooling economy, reflecting increased business caution in hiring amid softening consumer demand. Given Nigeria’s vulnerability to external shocks and commodity price volatility, there is need for caution to avoid placing excessive strain on the domestic economy until global conditions become more predictable. Experiences from other central banks amid ongoing geoeconomic fragmentation show a gradual shift toward lowering policy rates as inflation moderates, while adopting more cautious, data‑dependent strategies that balance domestic growth support with structural supply‑chain adjustments. Over 57 per cent of sampled major central banks that maintained a tight stance in June saw inflation either rise or remain unchanged, even as real growth increased. This underscores the complexity of current global conditions and reinforces the need for a cautious, data-driven approach, particularly if a tight stance is being considered. Broad money supply expanded by 5.08 per cent in June, but the annualised pace remains below target. Alongside contractions in Currency-in-Circulation and a decline in Net Foreign Assets, overall liquidity conditions point toward tightening. Although Net Domestic Assets increased due to higher government securities purchases, the contractionary impact of falling NFA outweighs this expansion, indicating that monetary policy is already operating in a restrictive mode. Despite pressures in the NFEM and BDC segments and a wider premium, inflation risks remain contained. Key indicators, moderating inflation, slowing output, rising real interest rates, and contracting drivers of money supply, collectively reinforce the case for easing the current monetary stance. As inflation declines, it is important to evaluate whether the tight monetary stance may be constraining growth. If the goal is broad-based and inclusive

economic improvement, the balance between sustaining disinflation and supporting growth requires careful consideration. To balance growth and inflation, the recent decline in inflation, particularly month‑on‑month, and the current positive but slow growth suggest a moderate policy stance, either a moderate rate cut or, at most, holding the rates. However, with geoeconomic tensions resurfacing after a lull in the Middle East, a cautious approach is important; hence my support for holding the rates. While interest rate adjustments have supported macroeconomic stability, persistent structural rigidities are limiting the effectiveness of monetary policy. In such an environment, additional tightening may yield limited benefits if structural constraints outweigh policy transmission. Rising unemployment, weak demand, and Nigeria’s exposure to external shocks also suggest the need for caution. To conclude, CBN forecasts point to further easing in inflation in July, supported by an expected moderation in food prices following strong agricultural expansion reflected in the June PMI. However, fiscally driven components, including food, energy, and farm‑produce prices, continue to exert upward pressure outside the direct influence of monetary policy. Structural bottlenecks, fiscal vulnerabilities, and renewed external risks, including heightened global trade fragmentation, could elevate imported inflation and delay the convergence to lower inflation levels. As inflation continues to moderate and the Bank advances its transition toward an inflation‑targeting‑lite framework, clear forward guidance remains essential. If the projected decline in inflation over the next three months materialises and no new risks emerge, I will support a downward adjustment in policy rates. In conclusion, it remains essential to closely monitor renewed geopolitical and geoeconomic developments and their implications for policy transmission, while maintaining strong collaboration with fiscal authorities to address broader macro‑fiscal challenges, including structural bottlenecks, fiscal vulnerabilities, and heightened global trade fragmentation, all of which could elevate imported inflation and delay convergence toward lower inflation levels.

10. RAYMOND O. OMACHI
1. Introduction
I voted to retain the policy rate and other policy parameters as follows:
i. Retain the Monetary Policy Rate at 26.5 per cent.
ii. Retain the Standing Facilities Corridor around the MPR at +50/-450 basis
points.
iii. Retain the Cash Reserve Requirement (CRR) for Deposit Money Banks
at 45.0 per cent, Merchant Banks at 16.0 per cent, and non-TSA public sector deposits at 75.0 per cent.
2. Rationale for my Voting Decision
The 306th meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) convened against the backdrop of significant, yet fragile macroeconomic progress with persistent upside risks, particularly elevated geopolitical tensions. Key developments leading up to the meeting thus required careful balance between returning to a disinflation path and sustaining growth. Available evidence over the period, including simulations across all scenarios, indicates that the current monetary policy stance best supports greater stability in the domestic economy. From a global perspective, renewed hostilities in the Middle East and uncertainty over higher global energy and transport costs have created upside risks to inflation across economies. The IMF's July 2026 outlook projected slower global growth and noted an expected rise in inflation in 2026 before easing thereafter. These developments provide a rationale against policy loosening at this stage, given the likelihood that rising global inflation may permeate the domestic economy. It is pragmatic to observe the outcome of ongoing negotiations among parties to the Middle East crisis, as this will ensure a proper assessment of the timing and magnitude of potential spillovers. In this context, maintaining a steady policy stance provides the flexibility to monitor these external developments and evaluate their implications for the domestic economic outlook. In Nigeria, the domestic inflation trajectory has improved, with headline inflation moderating to 15.91 per cent in June 2026 from 15.93 per cent in May. However, food inflation remains elevated, and upside risks from exchange rate pass-through have not been fully eliminated, suggesting that disinflation is not fully entrenched. In these circumstances, easing policy

could undermine recent price stability gains, while further tightening would impose additional costs on productive sectors without materially addressing the supply-side drivers of inflation. During this period, economic growth is also positive but raises questions about its capacity to absorb further tightening. Real GDP expanded by 3.89 per cent in Q1 2026, although the growth momentum softened relative to the previous quarter. This suggests that aggregate demand is not excessively strong to withstand additional monetary tightening, underscoring the role of fiscal and structural interventions to complement the current interest-rate stance. Also worth noting is the approaching election period, where election-related spending pressures and the associated volume of cash in circulation may become inflationary. This subsequent rise in system liquidity and exchange rate pressures may pose a key risk to disinflation. Overall, the current policy mix has delivered improved macroeconomic and foreign exchange market stability. Premature easing could reverse these gains, weaken portfolio inflows and reignite exchange-rate pressures, while additional tightening risks raising borrowing costs, constraining credit, and weakening investment. This scenario validates the saying “you don’t change a winning formula”, as altering an effective strategy introduces greater risk without guaranteed improvement. Evidence thus supports policy continuity. Accordingly, my preferred policy mix, at this time, is to retain current monetary parameters while complementing them with growth-supportive fiscal measures. This combination would help sustain the inflation trajectory, support output growth, and strengthen macroeconomic stability. To further put the global, domestic, and economic outlook contexts that shaped my voting decision into perspective, the following specifics are provided:
3. Global Context:
The prolonged tensions between the United States and Iran remain the most significant driver of geopolitical risk. The unpredictable nature of events surrounding the US-Iran crisis continues to weigh heavily on the global economy. Of particular concern are attacks on energy infrastructure, constrained global supply, and the resulting energy price pressures. The possibility of a rebound in energy costs amid heightened uncertainty from the conflict presents an upside risk to global inflationary pressures. These developments, coupled with tight fiscal space globally, have heightened uncertainty across global financial markets and are indirectly affecting the

monetary policy considerations of central banks in both advanced and emerging market and developing economies. Global growth forecast for 2026 was further lowered to 3.0 per cent in July, from the April projection of 3.1 per cent and from 3.5 per cent in 2025 (IMF WEO, July 2026). Global inflation is also projected at 4.7 per cent in 2026, from the April projection of 4.4 per cent and from 4.1 per cent in 2025. Global energy prices started to ease due to the increase in global oil production arising from the temporary ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran in June 2026. Consequently, international oil prices have declined significantly, reversing much of the earlier surge triggered by the conflict that had disrupted global supply since February 2026. By July 20, 2026, crude oil prices had eased to around US$80 per barrel. However, the ceasefire breach recorded in July underscores the persistence of geopolitical risks in global energy markets. As a result, oil prices trend above their pre-conflict level of approximately US$60 per barrel and are likely to stay elevated through 2026 as geopolitical uncertainties continue. This has prompted a cautious response among major central banks as they seek to better understand inflation pathways. While some have collectively paused policy rate cuts to keep rates higher for longer, others are even expecting hikes if energy price volatility reignites. The US dollar is strengthening against major EMDE currencies amid flight-to-safety preferences and rate-hike expectations, with implications for capital-flow conditions. On the upside, the stabilisation of US trade policy following the preceding year’s shocks, as well as growth in AI-related investment, could significantly offset global risks, foster trade resilience, and support global recovery. For Nigeria, the evolving global economic landscape poses distinct risks and opportunities. A possible rebound in crude oil prices could boost export earnings, fiscal revenues, and external reserves. However, regional security concerns, elevated uncertainty, and weaker global trade prospects continue to pose risks to domestic inflation and external sector stability, notwithstanding the country’s improved macroeconomic conditions.
4. Domestic Context:
On the domestic front, the Nigerian economy grew by 3.89 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, slightly slower than the preceding-quarter growth of 4.07 per cent. Similarly, growth in the oil and non-oil sectors also reached 2.57 per cent and 3.94 per cent, respectively, though lower than the 6.79 per cent and 3.99 per cent in the preceding quarter. Year-on-year headline inflation declined slightly to 15.91 per cent in June 2026 from 15.93 per cent in May. The recent trajectory of inflation follows two consecutive months of upticks,

pointing to a possible return to the disinflation path. Food inflation, however, rose to 17.52per cent from 16.96 per cent. In the external sector, the naira-to-US dollar exchange rate has broadly remained stable, with the official rate closing at ₦1,380.18/US$ on July 17,
2026. Gross external reserves (GER) rose to a record level of US$52.54 billion on
July 13, 2026, from US$51.36 billion as at end-June 2026, and are adequate to cover about 11 months' imports of goods and services (CBN, July 2026). The improvement in accretion to foreign reserves continues to cushion the effect of geopolitical shocks and curtail volatility, keeping the naira-to-US-dollar exchange rate within desired limits, despite the strengthening of the US dollar. Overall, the domestic financial market has so far in the year delivered robust performance and has remained stable, supported by the concluded banking sector recapitalisation programme and broader macroeconomic improvement, which has improved sentiment. The fiscal sector mirrored this performance, with year-on-year government revenue increasing by 31.33 per cent in April 2026 and expenditure declining by 41.26 per cent. This translated to the narrowing of the fiscal deficit by 65.14 per cent. The notable increase in tax revenue reflects gains from tax reform, digital administration, and the transition of the Nigerian Revenue Service in support of the government's ambition to build a one-trillion-dollar economy.
5. Economic Outlook Context
Nigeria’s economic outlook remains positive but cautious, supported by ongoing macroeconomic reforms, improved foreign exchange market stability, stronger external reserves, and growth in key sectors. Ongoing fiscal and exchange rate reforms are expected to underpin growth prospects. However, the outlook is subdued by vulnerability to global shocks, including geopolitical tensions, oil price fluctuations, and a potential rebound in inflationary pressures. I am concerned that these shocks may further increase living costs, which have remained persistently high. It is prudent, therefore, to continue factoring these shocks into policy recalibrations in 2026, particularly when assessing their pass-through to domestic prices. While the structure of the Nigerian economy evolves positively, sustained monetary and fiscal policy reforms, complemented by measures to boost productivity and investment, would foster more inclusive growth over the medium term. For the fiscal sector, the robust financial markets, rising oil revenue, and increased crude oil production present a clear opportunity to broaden domestic borrowing and improve both oil and non-oil revenue. These

measures would expand the revenue base while reducing the cost of financing external debt and broadly improving fiscal sustainability. The fiscal sector also benefits significantly from the Presidential Executive Order 9 (EO9) through accountable revenue generation. However, stronger coordination with the monetary authority is important to curb demand-driven shocks to inflation through spending pressures (including those of election spending) The fiscal sector is committed to supporting the monetary authority to ensure that current stability is sustained over the longer term. The Committee remains nimble to new evidence on the durability of macroeconomic improvement as well as the extent of the second-round effects of global shocks.
6. Conclusion
Having carefully weighed the global outlook and risks to the domestic economy, I am of the view that a hold stance remains the most appropriate policy response at this time. It is necessary to be mindful of headwinds from elevated global uncertainty, weaker trade prospects, and geopolitical tensions as they continue to dictate global capital flows and commodity price stability, even as a possible rebound in crude oil prices offers tailwind support to fiscal and external buffers. The moderation in headline inflation, alongside relatively stable exchange rates, improved external reserves, and resilient non-oil sector growth, reflects the cumulative impact of the tightening cycle. However, inflationary pressures have not been fully curtailed, as food inflation continues to trend upwards, thus requiring continued vigilance to guard against a complete shift of focus from the price stability objective. I strongly suggest that this policy stance remain unchanged at this meeting, as the economy gradually adjusts to its output potential and to achieve greater stability. The policy space remains intact to respond decisively should new developments unfold. In furtherance of the mandate of the Central Bank of Nigeria, and within the purview of the Monetary Policy Committee, I uphold my decision to maintain the current policy rate and keep other parameters unchanged.

11. OLAYEMI CARDOSO
    Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria and Chairman, Monetary Policy Committee Decision I voted to retain all monetary policy parameters at their prevailing levels. In reaching this decision, I took account of several evolving developments. Inflation eased marginally in June, external reserves strengthened further, economic activity continued to expand, the foreign-exchange market remained stable, and our earlier policy measures are showing clearer signs of taking effect. Inflation, however, remains elevated. The improvement we have seen in June is not yet sufficiently broad or sustained to justify easing, particularly given continuing uncertainty in the global environment. On the other hand, the case for further tightening is less compelling at this stage. Weighing all of these considerations, my judgement is that holding all parameters unchanged is the most appropriate course of action. It allows us to protect the progress already made, continue to support exchange-rate and financial-system stability, and give our earlier decisions more time to work through the economy. It also allows us to continue to assess important developments at home and abroad without introducing unnecessary volatility. Inflation Developments The June inflation, though elevated, provided tentative evidence that the disinflation process is regaining traction. Headline inflation eased slightly to
    15.91 per cent from 15.93 per cent in May, marking the first moderation since
    the Middle East conflict interrupted the earlier disinflation trend in March. Month-on-month data were more encouraging: headline inflation slowed for a third consecutive month, from 4.18 per cent in March to 1.66 per cent in June, while core inflation also declined to 15.92 per cent from 16.82 per cent. This suggests that first-round energy-shock effects are fading without significant second-round pressures so far. However, the composition of inflation calls for a cautious approach. Food inflation rose to 17.52 per cent from 16.96 per cent, with month-on-month food inflation at 3.75 per cent, largely reflecting logistics costs, flooding and structural bottlenecks, whose resolution will require complementary actions

across several policy areas and levels of government. Overall, the June figures are encouraging but not yet decisive. Domestic Environment The domestic economy continues to grow. Real GDP expanded by 3.89 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, compared with 4.07 per cent in the preceding quarter. The Composite PMI also moved marginally back into expansion, reaching 50.1 index points. The slowdown in growth was largely due to weaker oil-sector performance, while the non-oil economy continued to support overall activity. These indicators, taken together, suggest that the economy is expanding at a modest but uneven pace. Domestic demand remains healthy, and there is no evidence of overheating. One domestic issue will require close attention in the months ahead: the persistence of food-price pressures. The recent rise in food inflation reflects challenges mostly related to the production, transportation, storage and distribution of farm produce. Flooding, high logistics costs and supply-chain bottlenecks could keep food prices elevated even when other components of inflation begin to ease. These problems reinforce the need for stronger coordination among the monetary authority, the fiscal authorities, state governments and other relevant agencies. The Bank will continue to support such coordination. Global Environment The global economy has remained resilient, although uncertainty has increased since the May meeting. Renewed energy pressures, trade fragmentation and supply disruptions have complicated the inflation outlook, while global growth has moderated. Consequently, major central banks have been cautious in addressing persistent inflation amidst weaker growth. A stronger US dollar, tighter global financial conditions and more volatile capital flows have also created a particularly demanding environment for emerging markets. For Nigeria, these external pressures are transmitted through higher energy and transportation costs, imported inflation, weaker capital flows and renewed pressure on the foreign-exchange market. Our stronger external reserves and current account surplus provide meaningful protection. Thus, the Bank will continue to preserve policy credibility and take advantage of periods of relative strength to opportunistically firm up our external buffers.

Policy Outlook
To gauge the outlook, the Committee will continue to assess the direction and composition of inflation, particularly food and core inflation, alongside system liquidity, fiscal operations, capital flows, external reserves and banking-sector asset quality. The Committee will also consider available indications of how businesses and households are responding to price developments. Future decisions will remain data-dependent and guided by the outlook for inflation, the external environment and the Bank's price stability mandate. For now, the prudent course is to leave all monetary policy parameters unchanged. This will allow us to consolidate the progress already made, preserve macroeconomic and financial stability, and keep inflation firmly on a path towards our medium-term goal of single-digit inflation. Accordingly, I voted to:
 Retain the Monetary Policy Rate at 26.50 per cent.
 Retain the asymmetric Standing Facilities corridor at +50/-450 basis points around the MPR.  Retain the Cash Reserve Ratio for commercial banks at 45 per cent.  Retain the Cash Reserve Ratio for merchant banks at 16 per cent.  Maintain the 75 per cent Cash Reserve Ratio on non-TSA public-sector deposits. Olayemi Michael Cardoso Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria July 2026