Study Note No. 55: Inflation - July 2026

BCRP STUDY NOTES
No. 55 - August 14, 2026
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INFLATION: JULY 2026

1. In July 2026, a monthly inflation rate of 0.29 percent and 4.07 percent over the last 12 months was recorded.
   BCRPData/NEINF202607G1

2. The main upward contributions to monthly inflation were from fresh fish, meals outside the home, other fresh fruits, and papaya, while chicken meat, vehicle fuels, potatoes, and fresh legumes contributed to the decrease.
   BCRPData/NEINF202607C1

Main price increases of the month

• Chicken meat (11.4 percent): The price increase is explained by demand dynamics, reflected in the lower average weight of chicken, which decreased by 2.5 percent compared to the June average (the average weight in July remained at 2.63 kg per unit against 2.70 kg in the previous month). In this month, household liquidity increased due to national holiday bonuses; IPC
  Percentage variation of July
  -0.17
  0.48
  0.56
  0.19
  0.36
  0.79
  0.09
  0.55
  0.43 0.45
  0.08
  0.20
  0.38
  0.20
  0.46
  1.01
  0.94
  0.39
  0.24 0.23
  0.29
  2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 IPC Percentage variation of July Average 06-26 0.39 CONTRIBUTION TO INFLATION: JULY 2026 CPI base Dec. 2021=100 Positive Weight Var.% Contribution Index item/ Negative Weight Var.% Contribution Index item/ CPI CPI Chicken meat 2.7 11.4 0.26 92.8 Papaya 0.2 -13.0 -0.05 132.5 National land transport 0.3 18.7 0.04 94.1 Vehicle fuels 1.1 -4.1 -0.04 92.5 Meals outside the home 15.5 0.2 0.03 105.9 Potato 0.7 -4.5 -0.04 119.3 National air transport 0.2 15.5 0.03 82.4 Other fresh fruits 0.6 -3.6 -0.03 149.8 Tomato 0.2 10.3 0.02 115.6 Fresh marine fish 0.7 -4.0 -0.03 117.3 Eggs 0.7 1.7 0.01 114.9 Onion 0.2 -6.7 -0.02 119.3 Whole chili pepper 0.1 22.6 0.01 124.9 Motor vehicles 1.6 -0.7 -0.01 85.7 Domestic and household services 2.2 0.6 0.01 92.3 Domestic gas 0.8 -1.1 -0.01 83.8 Education 8.6 0.1 0.01 103.6 Electricity 2.6 -0.3 -0.01 79.4 Telephones 0.5 2.5 0.01 83.9 Carrot 0.1 -3.9 -0.01 133.2 Total 0.43 Total -0.25

BCRP STUDY NOTES
No. 55 - August 14, 2026
2 / 31 also contributed to this result the celebration of the Roasted Chicken Day and the long weekend for National Holidays.

• National land transport and national air transport (18.7 percent and 15.5 percent): The increase in ticket fares is explained by the seasonal increase in demand due to the long weekend that combined the Air Force Day (July 23) and National Holidays (July 28 and 29).
• Meals outside the home (0.2 percent): The largest price increases were recorded in broaster chicken (0.7 percent), pizzas and chaufa rice (0.6 percent each), regional broths and soups and grilled meat (0.5 percent each), ceviche (0.3 percent) and menu in restaurants (0.1 percent).
• Tomato (10.3 percent): The supply to Lima and Ica decreased compared to June (-5.3 percent and -9.5 percent, respectively) due to lower yields as a result of higher temperatures on the coast.
• Egg (1.7 percent): The higher price is due to the lower yield of laying hens due to heat stress in Lima.
• Whole chili pepper (22.6 percent): The price increase is explained by the higher price of yellow chili escabeche (47.0 percent), whose supply from the Lima valleys decreased by 17.8 percent compared to the previous month. The lower supply is due to the decrease in yields due to the month's anomalous high temperatures.

Main price decreases of the month

• Papaya (-13.0 percent): The average inflows from Ucayali in July increased by 6.4 percent compared to June following a decrease in precipitation in the region during the month of July.
• Vehicle fuels (-4.1 percent): The item mainly reflected the dynamics of final gasohol prices (-4.8 percent). The price of gasohols was a consequence of the lower retail margin of gas stations (-29.2 percent), which more than compensated for the increase in refinery price (1.6 percent). The increase in refinery price was driven by the recovery of the gap (69.9 percent) with respect to the international parity price, which, in contrast, registered a decrease of 4.0 percent.
• Potato (-6.0 percent): The price of white potato decreased (-5.6 percent) due to the development of the large campaign in the central highlands. In July, the supply of white potato from Junín increased by 25.8 percent compared to June and that from Ica increased by 412.8 percent (it went from an average of 72.9 daily tons in June to 373.8 daily tons in July).
• Other fresh fruits (-0.4 percent): It mainly reflects the lower price of blueberry (-16.2 percent), due to the increase in supply from the regions of Lambayeque and Ica by 60.5 percent, with the start of the harvest season of the year. The price of mango decreased (-5.0 percent) due to higher inflows of the Edward and Haden varieties from Piura.

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• Fresh marine fish (-4.0 percent): The price of bonito decreased by 11.3 percent due to greater supply compared to June (169.5 percent). This occurred after the decrease in anomalous wave heights that led to the reopening of ports from the second week of the month.
• Onion (-4.6 percent): The lower price is due to a greater supply from the province of Camaná (increase of 17.4 percent in shipments compared to June) along with an increase in shipments of the better quality product from the Lima valleys (37.7 percent compared to the previous month.
  BCRPData/NEINF202607C2
  Average Weight
  Dec.21=100 2001-2025 Month 12 months Month 12 months CPI 100.0 2.90 0.23 4.01 0.29 4.07

1. CPI excluding food and energy 55.3 2.35 0.08 4.46 0.28 4.57
   SAE excluding transport 46.1 2.22 0.10 1.56 0.17 1.69 Goods 17.4 2.0 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.9 Telephones 0.5 -1.5 1.3 5.9 2.5 7.8 Services 37.9 2.6 0.1 6.1 0.3 6.2 Education 8.6 4.1 0.0 3.4 0.1 3.6 Domestic and household services 2.2 0.9 0.8 5.6 0.6 5.9 Rentals 4.5 0.6 -0.4 0.1 0.1 0.3 Transport 9.1 2.9 0.0 18.3 0.7 18.2 National land transport 0.3 4.2 1.8 9.5 18.7 12.6 National air transport 0.2 4.2 -5.7 8.8 15.5 16.5
2. Food and energy 44.7 3.5 0.4 3.5 0.3 3.5
   a. Food and beverages 40.0 3.6 0.5 3.5 0.5 3.6 Chicken meat 2.7 2.6 -4.5 -2.5 11.4 14.4 Eggs 0.7 3.3 4.5 -1.3 1.7 3.8 Perishable agricultural foods 5.0 4.3 1.1 12.1 -1.6 7.7 Potato 0.7 4.0 -6.0 13.3 -4.5 6.8 Papaya 0.2 5.8 14.0 42.2 -13.0 13.4 Onion 0.2 5.1 -4.6 23.8 -6.7 15.5 Marine fish 0.7 2.9 26.6 18.3 -4.0 -3.6 Rest 15.4 3.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.4 b. Fuels and electricity 4.8 2.8 -1.1 3.0 -1.4 1.9 Fuels 2.1 2.7 -2.4 12.4 -2.6 10.1 of which Vehicle fuels 1.1 2.1 -5.7 22.3 -4.1 17.8 Domestic gas 0.8 2.4 0.6 4.4 -1.1 4.3 Electricity 2.6 2.6 0.1 -4.3 -0.3 -4.4 June 2026 Inflation: July 2026 Percentage variations July 2026

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Evolution of annual inflation to July
3. The annual inflation of July (4.07 percent) was higher than that of June (4.01 percent). The result responds mainly to the increase in chicken meat (from -2.5 to 14.4 percent), eggs (from -1.3 to 3.8 percent) and noodles (-11.7 to -7.7 percent).
BCRPData/NEINF202607G2

4. In July, inflation excluding food and energy (SAE) was 0.28 percent in the month and 4.57 percent over the last twelve months (4.46 percent in June). The result reflects the annual acceleration of national air transport (from 8.8 to 16.5 percent) and national land transport (from 9.5 to 12.6 percent).
   4.07
   4.57
   3.48
   0
   2
   4
   6
   8
   10
   12
   14
   16
   18
   Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-24 Apr-24 Jul-24 Oct-24 Jan-25 Apr-25 Jul-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 Apr-26 Jul-26 INFLATION (Percentage variation last twelve months) Inflation Inflation excluding food and energy Food and energy Maximum Minimum Inflation target range Avg. 01-25 2022 2023 2024 2025 Jul-26 Inflation: 2.9% 8.46% 3.24% 1.97% 1.51% 4.07% Excluding food and energy: 2.3% 5.59% 2.90% 2.60% 1.83% 4.57% Food and energy: 3.5% 12.02% 3.63% 1.23% 1.13% 3.48% Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26 Total Inflation Monthly 0.13 0.23 -0.29 0.01 -0.10 0.11 0.24 0.10 0.69 2.38 0.52 -0.16 0.23 0.29 12 months 1.69 1.69 1.11 1.36 1.35 1.37 1.51 1.70 2.21 3.80 4.01 3.91 4.01 4.07 Inflation excluding food and energy Monthly 0.07 0.18 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.06 0.46 0.04 0.36 2.07 0.87 0.09 0.08 0.28 12 months 1.69 1.68 1.75 1.81 1.77 1.77 1.83 2.02 2.20 3.65 4.41 4.44 4.46 4.57 Food and energy prices (Percentage variation) Monthly 0.20 0.29 -0.72 -0.04 -0.27 0.17 -0.01 0.16 1.08 2.74 0.12 -0.45 0.40 0.29 12 months 1.70 1.70 0.36 0.83 0.86 0.91 1.13 1.32 2.23 3.98 3.56 3.28 3.48 3.48

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BCRPData/NEINF202607G4
BCRPData/NEINF202607G3
0.90
6.20
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-24 Apr-24 Jul-24 Oct-24 Jan-25 Apr-25 Jul-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 Apr-26 Jul-26 INFLATION EXCLUDING FOOD AND ENERGY (Percentage variation last twelve months) SAE goods SAE services Maximum Minimum Inflation target range Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26 SAE goods Monthly 0.08 0.02 -0.04 0.02 -0.01 -0.05 0.00 0.18 0.09 0.06 0.17 0.13 0.13 0.21 12 months 1.25 1.14 1.01 0.97 0.95 0.81 0.82 0.85 0.80 0.48 0.62 0.67 0.72 0.90 SAE services Monthly 0.06 0.26 0.14 0.08 0.07 0.10 0.67 -0.03 0.48 2.96 1.17 0.07 0.06 0.31 12 months 1.89 1.93 2.09 2.19 2.14 2.20 2.29 2.56 2.83 5.08 6.10 6.14 6.14 6.20 3.63 1.94

• 15
• 10
• 5
  0
  5
  10
  15
  Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-24 Apr-24 Jul-24 Oct-24 Jan-25 Apr-25 Jul-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 Apr-26 Jul-26 FOOD AND ENERGY (Percentage variation last twelve months) Food and beverages Energy Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26 Food prices Monthly 0.25 0.36 -0.53 0.01 -0.21 0.30 -0.01 0.19 1.27 2.20 0.06 -0.70 0.55 0.46 12 months 1.98 2.07 0.91 1.44 1.53 1.78 2.04 2.29 3.33 4.39 3.82 3.22 3.53 3.63 Energy prices Monthly -0.30 -0.41 -2.76 -0.65 -0.87 -1.22 -0.07 -0.15 -1.00 8.82 0.67 2.18 -1.13 -1.43 12 months -1.14 -2.10 -5.20 -5.26 -5.84 -7.81 -7.94 -8.31 -8.76 -0.20 0.92 3.86 3.00 1.94

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5. The prices of SAE goods registered an annual price variation of 0.90 percent in July, higher than that observed in June (0.72 percent). Among the items that contributed to a greater variation stand out telephones (from 5.9 to 7.8 percent), which reflected a global supply factor due to the increase in production costs of equipment due to the increase in prices of RAM memory, storage and processing components due to the high demand for these by large data centers for use in Artificial Intelligence; likewise, they explained the rise in motor vehicles (from -6.5 to -6.2 percent) and televisions (from 2.0 to 3.0 percent).
BCRPData/NEINF202607C10

6. Services registered an annual price variation of 6.20 percent in July, higher than that observed in June (6.14 percent). Among the items that contributed to a greater variation stand out national air transport (from 8.8 to 16.5 percent), national land transport (from 9.5 to 12.6 percent), education (from 3.4 to 3.6 percent), domestic services (from 5.6 to 5.9 percent) and rentals (from 0.1 to 0.3 percent).
   Annual percentage variations
   Wgt. Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26 Goods 17.38 2.68 1.63 0.82 0.85 0.80 0.48 0.62 0.67 0.72 0.90 Textile and Footwear 4.10 2.74 0.67 1.20 1.24 1.12 1.08 1.03 1.01 1.03 1.13 Home appliances 0.46 0.67 1.99 2.57 2.64 2.59 2.14 1.41 1.03 0.53 0.11 of which:
   Stoves and refrigerators 0.22 1.53 2.86 3.04 2.85 2.86 2.45 2.00 1.26 0.52 0.29 Washing machines 0.13 -0.58 2.52 2.94 3.25 3.23 2.72 1.69 1.37 1.28 0.42 Rest of industrial 12.83 2.73 1.91 0.64 0.66 0.64 0.24 0.47 0.55 0.63 0.86 of which:
   Motor vehicles 1.61 0.12 2.97 -5.81 -5.35 -5.17 -7.38 -6.06 -6.33 -6.49 -6.24 Telephones 0.47 -2.62 -0.36 3.35 3.44 2.80 2.18 2.57 4.49 5.88 7.83 Televisions 0.38 -0.33 0.98 0.33 0.57 0.76 0.34 0.93 1.99 2.02 3.03

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BCRPData/NEINF202607C3

7. In July, the contribution to annual inflation of the items most linked to exchange rate, IPM and quotations was 0.55 percentage points. This result was mainly contributed by the increase in prices of food commodities linked to international quotations and fuels.

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BCRPData/NEINF202607C4
Weight Var%
12 m
Var%
12 m
Var%
12 m
Var%
12 m
Base
Dec.21 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25 Jul-26
CPI (I+II) 100.00 3.24 3.24 1.97 1.97 1.51 1.51 4.07 4.07

A. Items linked to the exchange rate 14.58 1.92 0.27 1.77 0.25 0.25 0.03 0.48 0.07 Home appliances 0.46 0.67 0.00 1.99 0.01 2.57 0.01 0.11 0.00 Personal care items 3.99 4.76 0.19 2.48 0.10 2.22 0.09 1.66 0.07 Cleaning items 1.32 4.65 0.06 1.35 0.02 0.60 0.01 0.40 0.01 Medicinal products 1.62 1.60 0.02 1.51 0.02 -0.13 0.00 0.87 0.01 Vehicle purchases 1.61 0.12 0.00 2.97 0.05 -5.81 -0.09 -6.24 -0.10 Vehicle spare parts 0.08 -2.25 0.00 1.05 0.00 1.46 0.00 0.74 0.00 Vehicle repair 0.28 4.62 0.01 1.15 0.00 3.66 0.01 2.32 0.01 Rentals 4.45 -0.19 -0.01 0.57 0.02 -0.33 -0.01 0.31 0.01 Airline tickets 0.78 -1.37 -0.01 3.47 0.02 2.81 0.02 8.09 0.06

B. Items linked to international quotations and exchange rate (1+2) 7.99 1.44 0.12 -1.53 -0.12 -5.14 -0.40 5.96 0.44

1. Linked to food commodities 5.84 3.96 0.25 -2.94 -0.18 -4.38 -0.26 4.65 0.26
   Chicken meat 2.70 8.04 0.20 2.66 0.07 -3.74 -0.10 14.36 0.33 Bread 1.35 0.74 0.01 -0.18 0.00 -0.90 -0.01 -1.26 -0.02 Sugar 0.37 5.41 0.02 -2.30 -0.01 -18.01 -0.08 -11.77 -0.05 Noodles 0.32 3.61 0.02 -8.13 -0.04 -7.48 -0.03 -7.66 -0.03 Oils 0.38 -9.16 -0.04 -9.33 -0.03 -1.29 0.00 -2.07 -0.01 Eggs 0.71 3.30 0.03 -17.73 -0.17 -4.74 -0.04 3.76 0.03
2. Fuels 2.15 -6.36 -0.13 3.32 0.06 -7.62 -0.14 10.13 0.18
   Gasoline and lubricants 1.06 -8.38 -0.09 -4.57 -0.04 -8.22 -0.07 17.78 0.15 Gas 0.84 -5.77 -0.04 16.47 0.11 -6.35 -0.05 4.31 0.03 Other fuels 0.02 1.68 0.00 -2.55 0.00 1.61 0.00 3.99 0.00 Natural gas for housing 0.23 2.22 0.00 -0.02 0.00 -10.36 -0.02 -3.65 -0.01

C. Items related to IPM 1.37 1.32 0.02 7.48 0.10 0.80 0.01 10.29 0.14
Water consumption 1.37 1.32 0.02 7.48 0.10 0.80 0.01 10.29 0.14

D. Items related to the exchange rate,
IPM and quotations 2.62 -7.11 -0.19 -0.72 -0.02 -8.19 -0.19 -4.42 -0.10 Electricity 2.62 -7.11 -0.19 -0.72 -0.02 -8.19 -0.19 -4.42 -0.10

I. Total items linked to exchange rate,
IPM and quotations (A+B+C+D) 26.56 0.82 0.22 0.80 0.21 -2.15 -0.55 2.21 0.55
II. Rest 73.44 4.10 3.02 2.37 1.76 2.76 2.06 4.68 3.52
of which 0.00 0.00
Meals outside the home 15.45 6.56 1.03 2.89 0.47 2.68 0.44 4.26 0.70 Transport 9.14 2.89 0.27 3.83 0.36 3.01 0.29 18.17 1.71 Services excluding transport and water 28.44 2.94 0.80 2.65 0.72 2.13 0.58 1.98 0.54 Perishable agricultural foods 5.04 0.69 0.04 -3.22 -0.18 7.39 0.40 7.68 0.45 Items linked to exchange rate, international quotations and IPM Contr. Wgt. Contr. Wgt. Contr. Wgt. Contr. Wgt.

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Trend inflation indicators
8. In July, all trend inflation indicators show monthly variations lower than those of the previous month while annual measures increased compared to June.
BCRPData/NEINF202607G5
4.1
3.3
3.3
3.7
4.6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Jul-08 Jul-10 Jul-12 Jul-14 Jul-16 Jul-18 Jul-20 Jul-22 Jul-24 Jul-26 INFLATION (Percentage variation last twelve months) Inflation Re-weighted Percentile 63 Trimmed mean Inflation excluding food and energy Maximum Minimum Inflation target range Avg. 01-25 2021 2022 2023 2024 Jun-26 Jul-26 Inflation: 2.9% 6.43% 8.46% 3.24% 1.97% 4.01% 4.07% Excluding food and energy: 2.3% 3.24% 5.59% 2.90% 2.60% 4.46% 4.57% Re-weighted: 2.8% 4.20% 7.59% 4.24% 2.26% 3.25% 3.34% Trimmed mean: 2.9% 4.53% 8.22% 4.21% 2.36% 3.59% 3.65% Percentile 63: 2.9% 4.23% 8.84% 4.80% 2.68% 3.31% 3.35%

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BCRPData/NEINF202607C5
MONTHLY TREND INFLATION INDICATORS
Monthly percentage variation
CPI Re-weighted 1/ Mean Percentile CPI excluding trimmed 2/ 63 3/ food and energy 4/ Dec-21 0.78 0.60 0.63 0.68 0.66 Dec-22 0.79 0.62 0.67 0.77 0.54 Dec-23 0.41 0.24 0.22 0.25 0.36 Dec-24 0.11 0.17 0.18 0.22 0.40 Jan-25 -0.09 0.15 0.20 0.23 -0.15 Feb-25 0.19 0.21 0.25 0.33 0.19 Mar-25 0.81 0.42 0.34 0.25 0.64 Apr-25 0.32 0.18 0.14 0.20 0.14 May-25 -0.06 0.17 0.17 0.21 0.05 Jun-25 0.13 0.17 0.13 0.19 0.07 Jul-25 0.23 0.10 0.09 0.11 0.18 Aug-25 -0.29 0.05 0.15 0.16 0.08 Sep-25 0.01 0.08 0.11 0.13 0.06 Oct-25 -0.10 0.04 0.12 0.09 0.04 Nov-25 0.11 0.10 0.14 0.17 0.06 Dec-25 0.24 0.18 0.24 0.16 0.46 Jan-26 0.10 0.19 0.22 0.27 0.04 Feb-26 0.69 0.26 0.23 0.25 0.36 Mar-26 2.38 1.17 1.31 0.93 2.07 Apr-26 0.52 0.49 0.46 0.60 0.87 May-26 -0.16 0.33 0.25 0.21 0.09 Jun-26 0.23 0.21 0.21 0.17 0.08 Jul-26 0.29 ↑ 0.19 ↓ 0.16 ↓ 0.14 ↓ 0.28 ↑ 1/ Re-weighted: Reduces the weight of items with greater volatility, dividing the original weights of each item by the standard deviation of their variations percentage monthly. 2/ Trimmed mean: Weighted average of the percentage price variations located between percentiles 34 and 84. 3/ Percentile 63: Corresponds to the percentage variation of the item located at the 63rd percentile. 4/ CPI excluding food and energy: CPI excluding food, fuels and electricity.

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BCRPData/NEINF202607C6
ANNUAL TREND INFLATION INDICATORS
Percentage variation 12 months
CPI Re-weighted 1/ Mean Percentile CPI excluding trimmed 2/ 63 3/ food and energy 4/ Dec-21 6.43 4.20 4.53 4.23 3.24 Dec-22 8.46 7.59 8.22 8.84 5.59 Dec-23 3.24 4.24 4.21 4.80 2.90 Dec-24 1.97 2.26 2.36 2.68 2.60 Jan-25 1.85 2.25 2.40 2.68 2.44 Feb-25 1.48 2.11 2.29 2.68 2.11 Mar-25 1.28 2.00 2.10 2.43 1.87 Apr-25 1.65 2.01 2.00 2.32 1.90 May-25 1.69 2.00 1.99 2.29 1.79 Jun-25 1.69 2.03 2.01 2.37 1.69 Jul-25 1.69 1.99 2.00 2.38 1.68 Aug-25 1.11 1.88 2.03 2.34 1.75 Sep-25 1.36 1.88 2.00 2.31 1.81 Oct-25 1.35 1.86 2.02 2.24 1.77 Nov-25 1.37 1.84 2.05 2.33 1.77 Dec-25 1.51 1.86 2.12 2.27 1.83 Jan-26 1.70 1.90 2.13 2.32 2.02 Feb-26 2.21 1.96 2.12 2.24 2.20 Mar-26 3.80 2.72 3.10 2.93 3.65 Apr-26 4.01 3.04 3.43 3.34 4.41 May-26 3.91 3.21 3.51 3.34 4.44 Jun-26 4.01 3.25 3.59 3.31 4.46 Jul-26 4.07 ↑ 3.34 ↑ 3.65 ↑ 3.35 ↑ 4.57 ↑ 1/ Re-weighted: Reduces the weight of items with greater volatility, dividing the original weights of each item by the standard deviation of their variations percentage monthly. 2/ Trimmed mean: Weighted average of the percentage price variations located between percentiles 34 and 84. 3/ Percentile 63: Corresponds to the percentage variation of the item located at the 63rd percentile. 4/ CPI excluding food and energy: CPI excluding food, fuels and electricity.

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9. In July, tradable products registered an annual variation of 1.41 percent (1.70 percent in June) and non-tradables of 5.23 percent (5.02 percent in June). In the case of tradables it reflects the deceleration of prices of other fresh fruits, vehicle fuels and culinary herbs. In the case of non-tradables it reflects the acceleration of prices of chicken meat, eggs and whole chili pepper.
BCRPData/NEINF202607G6
Dispersion indices
10. In July, the CPI dispersion index reached 38.3 percent, higher than that observed in June (35.6 percent). This index has been decreasing since February 2023, the month in which it reached 76 percent. Between January 2001 and July 2026, the value of the dispersion index, considering only the months in which inflation was around 2.0 percent, was 27 percent.
1.41
5.23
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-24 Apr-24 Jul-24 Oct-24 Jan-25 Apr-25 Jul-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 Apr-26 Jul-26 TRADABLE AND NON-TRADABLE PRICES (Percentage variation last twelve months) Tradables Non-tradables Maximum Minimum Inflation target range Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26 Tradables Monthly 0.38 0.17 -0.52 -0.24 -0.31 -0.19 0.00 0.10 0.26 1.77 0.25 0.21 0.21 -0.12 12 months 1.18 1.18 0.63 0.68 0.70 0.48 0.38 0.22 0.18 1.61 1.70 1.88 1.70 1.41 Non-tradables Monthly 0.02 0.26 -0.19 0.12 -0.01 0.24 0.35 0.09 0.88 2.64 0.63 -0.32 0.24 0.46 12 months 1.92 1.91 1.32 1.66 1.64 1.76 2.00 2.35 3.11 4.76 5.02 4.79 5.02 5.23

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BCRPData/NEINF202607G7

11. The distribution of annual price variations at the item level in the CPI basket shows less dispersion compared to the previous month. This is reflected in the decrease of the 25th, 50th and 95th percentiles. In addition, the 75th and 5th percentiles increased.
    Distribution of annual variations of CPI items BCRPData/NEINF202607G8 Jul-26; 38.3 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jul-05 Jul-06 Jul-07 Jul-08 Jul-09 Jul-10 Jul-11 Jul-12 Jul-13 Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Jul-17 Jul-18 Jul-19 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-23 Jul-24 Jul-25 Jul-26 Percentage of CPI items with annual price variation greater than 3% Average 2001-2026:
    39
    Average around 2 percent: 27
    Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Jun-26 Jul-26 Index 30 36 36 35 32 36 35 34 34 33 36 36 38 Number of items:
    Items with variation greater than 3% 57 67 68 65 61 68 66 64 64 62 68 67 72 Items with variation less than 3% 131 121 120 123 127 120 122 124 124 126 120 121 116 Note: The average annual inflation corresponding to the period of the long-term average dispersion index is 2.99 percent.

BCRP STUDY NOTES
No. 55 - August 14, 2026
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Seasonally adjusted inflation indicators

12. Seasonally adjusted total inflation in July 2026 was 0.15 percent, and seasonally adjusted inflation excluding food and energy was 0.24 percent.
    BCRPData/NEINF202607G21

[Chart: Seasonally adjusted and unadjusted inflation (monthly % variation)] X-axis: Jul-19 to Jul-26 Y-axis: -1.00 to 3.00 Legend: IPC (Consumer Price Index), IPC (s.a.) (Seasonally Adjusted)

[Table: Monthly variations]
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul IPC 0.13 0.23 -0.29 0.01 -0.10 0.11 0.24 0.10 0.69 2.38 0.52 -0.16 0.23 0.29 IPC (s.a) 0.20 0.10 -0.29 0.13 0.08 0.25 0.20 0.20 0.69 1.82 0.54 -0.04 0.30 0.15

2025 2026
1/ For deseasonalization, Tramo Seats was used considering outlier and calendar effects. Seasonality factors are calculated considering the sample from Jan. 2002 - Dec. 2025.

[Chart: SAE inflation with and without seasonal adjustment (monthly % variation)] X-axis: Jul-19 to Jul-26 Y-axis: -0.50 to 3.00 Legend: SAE (Core Inflation), SAE (s.a.)

BCRP STUDY NOTES
No. 55 - August 14, 2026
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13. The three-month annualized moving variation of the seasonally adjusted total inflation series was 4.78 percent in July 2026. This rate is lower than that recorded in the previous month (8.48 percent) and is above the target range. The three-month annualized moving variation of the seasonally adjusted SAE (core) inflation series was 5.88 percent. This rate is lower than that recorded in June 2026 (9.13 percent) and is above the target range.
    BCRPData/NEINF202607G23

[Table: Monthly variations]
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul SAE 0.07 0.18 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.06 0.46 0.04 0.36 2.07 0.87 0.09 0.08 0.28 SAE (s.a) 0.13 0.14 0.15 0.18 0.10 0.18 0.25 0.30 0.34 1.53 0.92 0.14 0.15 0.24

2025 2026
1/ For deseasonalization, Tramo Seats was used considering outlier and calendar effects. Seasonality factors are calculated considering the sample from Jan. 2002 - Dec. 2025.

[Chart: Three-month annualized moving average of seasonally adjusted total inflation] X-axis: Jul-19 to Jul-26 Y-axis: -1.00 to 13.00

[Table: Monthly variations]
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Total IPC 2.20 1.32 0.41 -0.20 0.38 1.17 2.16 3.02 6.06 9.48 11.26 8.48 4.78

2025 2026
1/ For deseasonalization, Tramo Seats was used considering outlier and calendar effects. Seasonality factors are calculated considering the sample from Jan. 2002 - Dec. 2025.

BCRP STUDY NOTES
No. 55 - August 14, 2026
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14. The three-month annualized moving variation of the seasonally adjusted SAE (core) inflation series excluding transport was 1.85 percent in July 2026. This rate is higher than that recorded in June 2026 (1.68 percent) and is within the target range.
    BCRPData/NEINF202607G26

[Chart: Three-month annualized moving average of seasonally adjusted SAE inflation] X-axis: Jul-19 to Jul-26 Y-axis: 0.00 to 10.00

[Table: Monthly variations]
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul SAE 1.61 1.63 1.68 1.76 1.82 1.91 2.32 2.92 5.20 8.12 10.55 9.13 5.88

2025 2026
1/ For deseasonalization, Tramo Seats was used considering outlier and calendar effects. Seasonality factors are calculated considering the sample from Jan. 2002 - Dec. 2025.

[Chart: Three-month annualized moving average of seasonally adjusted SAE inflation excluding transport] X-axis: Jul-19 to Jul-26 Y-axis: 0.00 to 6.00

[Table: Monthly variations]
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul SAE excluding transport 1.80 1.52 1.34 1.16 1.04 0.99 1.27 1.94 2.17 2.13 1.54 1.68 1.85

2025 2026
1/ For deseasonalization, Tramo Seats was used considering outlier and calendar effects. Seasonality factors are calculated considering the sample from Jan. 2002 - Dec. 2025.

BCRP STUDY NOTES
No. 55 - August 14, 2026
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15. The three-month annualized moving variation of the seasonally adjusted SAE Services inflation series was 8.07 percent in July 2026. This rate is lower than that recorded in June 2026 (12.75 percent) and is above the target range.
    BCRPData/NEINF202607G25

[Chart: Three-month annualized moving average of seasonally adjusted SAE Services inflation] X-axis: Jul-19 to Jul-26 Y-axis: 0.00 to 15.00

[Table: Monthly variations]
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul SAE Services 2.12 2.52 2.65 2.67 2.58 2.58 2.97 3.64 6.86 11.18 14.85 12.75 8.07

2025 2026
1/ For deseasonalization, Tramo Seats was used considering outlier and calendar effects. Seasonality factors are calculated considering the sample from Jan. 2002 - Dec. 2025.

Inflation by cities

16. In July, national inflation was 0.30 percent for the month and 3.70 percent over the last 12 months (3.57 percent in June). The dispersion of monthly inflations by city was 0.21 in July, lower than in June (0.24). The long-term average value of this indicator is 0.33 (average 2012-2026).

[Chart: Dispersion of city inflations - Standard Deviation] X-axis: 2017-Jul to 2026-Jul Y-axis: 0.0 to 2.0 Data points: Apr-20; 1.03, Ene-23; 1.26, Mar-23; 1.64, Jul-26; 0.21

[Bar Chart: July 2026 Inflation by Cities (Monthly % Variation)] Values:
Puno 0.01, Tarapoto 0.01, Cajamarca 0.02, Abancay 0.04, Iquitos 0.08, Moyobamba 0.10, Pucallpa 0.10, Piura 0.13, Moquegua 0.14, Arequipa 0.16, Chachapoyas 0.20, Tumbes 0.25, Lima 0.29, IPC Nacional 0.30, Cerro de Pasco 0.34, Chiclayo 0.34, Puerto Maldonado 0.37, Trujillo 0.41, Huaraz 0.43, Cusco 0.44, Huancayo 0.49, Huánuco 0.52, Ayacucho 0.53, Huancavelica 0.53, Tacna 0.54, Ica 0.64, Chimbote 0.72

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No. 55 - August 14, 2026
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17. The largest increases occurred in Chimbote (0.72), Ica (0.64), Tacna (0.54), and Huancavelica (0.53). The increases were mainly in fish, domestic air transport, and fruits.

In Chimbote, the result was explained by the rise in prices of meats and sausages due to increased production costs, associated with the higher cost of imported inputs such as yellow corn and soy, used in the preparation of balanced feeds. Also, the payment of bonuses, the long holiday, and increased tourist traffic boosted meat demand. The increase in fruit prices was associated with seasonal factors and lower availability of agricultural products. Fish and seafood prices increased due to oceanographic factors, such as variations in temperature and marine currents on the coast, which reduced the availability and landings of high-demand species.

In Ica, the month's result was explained by the rise in the price of chicken (3.5 percent), due to lower intake of live chickens at slaughter and distribution centers due to the effects of avian flu, as well as the increase in the price of beef (1.2 percent), due to the suspension of the municipal slaughterhouse in Ica, which forced the transfer of livestock for slaughter to slaughterhouses in other cities, such as Chincha, with the consequent higher freight cost. Accommodation services increased by 6.0 percent due to the greater flow of tourists during the National Holidays.

In Tacna, the result was explained by higher prices of meats (3.2 percent), particularly chicken and pork; fruits (5.2 percent), highlighting lemons and papaya due to lower supply from producer zones in the north and east of the country, as well as grapes and granadilla due to seasonal supply factors in other regions; and fish and seafood (3.23 percent), due to their lower availability in the region's ports and coves.

18. The cities with the highest inflations over the last 12 months were Puerto Maldonado (8.0), Arequipa (4.1), Moquegua (4.1), and Huancayo (4.0). The increases occurred mainly in fuels and lubricants and domestic land and air transport.

[Table: Monthly percentage variations: Cities with highest rates vs Cities with lowest rates - July 2026]

Highest Rates:
Ica: Fish and seafood 8.6, Fruits 7.3, Accommodation services 6.0, Telephone and facsimile equipment 2.7, Meat 2.3 Tacna: Fruits 5.1, Air passenger transport 4.6, Fish and seafood 3.2, Meat 3.2, Other food products 1.2 Puno: Fruits 8.0, Fish and seafood 6.5, Air passenger transport 3.6, Other food products 2.6, Coffee, tea and cocoa 1.6 Cajamarca: Vegetables, legumes and tubers -2.9, Fuels and lubricants -2.5, Unspecified personal effects -2.0, Oils and fats -1.7, Mineral waters, soft drinks and fruit juices -0.9

Lowest Rates:
Ayacucho: Fruits 8.0, Fish and seafood 6.5, Air passenger transport 3.6, Other food products 2.6, Coffee, tea and cocoa 1.6 Huánuco: Water supply 8.8, Fish and seafood 8.2, Air passenger transport 5.3, Meat 3.9, Paramedical services 2.1 Abancay: Fuels and lubricants -3.1, Fish and seafood -2.0, Air passenger transport -1.6, Meat -0.9, Bread and cereals -0.9 Iquitos: Fruits -2.6, Fuels and lubricants -1.8, Telephone and facsimile equipment -1.6, Gas -0.9, Household appliances -1.6

BCRP STUDY NOTES
No. 55 - August 14, 2026
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Other price indices

19. In July, the wholesale price index (WPI) increased 0.55 percent for the month, national products varied by 0.57 percent and imported products by 0.45 percent. Thus, the index accumulated an annual variation of 1.88 percent (0.58 percent in June).

Among national products that registered positive price variations, fuels stand out such as diesel fuel (6.3 percent), liquefied petroleum gas (1.2 percent), and gasohol (0.4 percent).

Price increases were recorded in imported products such as diesel fuel (6.7 percent), polypropylene resins (4.0 percent), and soybean meal (1.9 percent).

[Bar Chart: July 2026 Inflation by Cities (Annual % Variation)] Values:
Tumbes 3.9, Iquitos 4.0, Tarapoto 4.0, Moyobamba 4.1, Chimbote 4.1, Chiclayo 4.3, Pucallpa 4.6, Huaraz 4.7, Chachapoyas 4.8, Huánuco 5.2, Trujillo 5.3, Ayacucho 5.4, Piura 5.8, Tacna 6.1, Cajamarca 6.8, Puno 7.7, Ica 8.0, Huancavelica 8.0, Cusco 8.0, IPC Nacional 8.0, Abancay 8.0, Cerro de Pasco 8.0, Huancayo 8.0, Lima 8.0, Moquegua 8.0, Arequipa 8.0, Puerto Maldonado 8.0

[Table: Annual percentage variations: Cities with highest rates vs Cities with lowest rates - July 2026]

Highest Rates:
Puerto Maldonado: Fuels and lubricants 43.7, Road passenger transport 35.2, Fruits 25.6, Unspecified personal effects 20.6, Air passenger transport 18.6 Arequipa: Fuels and lubricants 21.9, Air passenger transport 21.3, Road passenger transport 18.6, Cultural services 17.0, Domestic and household services 15.5 Tumbes: Fruits -18.0, Telephone and facsimile equipment -11.6, Telephone and facsimile equipment -15.9, Household appliances -10.8, Tools and household equipment -9.0 Iquitos: Telephone and facsimile equipment -11.6, Receiving and recording equipment -9.9, Household appliances -6.4, Fish and seafood -6.5, Household appliances -6.4

Lowest Rates:
Moquegua: Fuels and lubricants 25.0, Road passenger transport 16.8, Water supply 12.9, Meat 9.0, Therapeutic appliances and equipment 8.2 Huancayo: Fuels and lubricants 19.6, Fish and seafood 18.8, Water supply 16.5, Fruits 14.2, Road passenger transport 11.8 Moyobamba: Other food products -5.3, Receiving and recording equipment -8.6, Electricity -4.9, Products for pets -3.7, Bread and cereals -3.0 Chiclayo: Receiving and recording equipment -8.6, Electricity -5.3, Products for pets -3.7, Household appliances -5.1, Bread and cereals -4.7

BCRP STUDY NOTES
No. 55 - August 14, 2026
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Source: INEI
BCRPData/NEINF202607G12

20. In July, the machinery and equipment price index decreased 0.15 percent for the month and 3.01 percent over the last twelve months, contributing to this, national origin goods with a monthly variation of -0.06 percent and imported goods in -0.18 percent.

Among national origin goods that registered the largest price reductions are transportation machinery and equipment such as bodies (-0.8 percent) and vehicle docks (-0.1 percent). Negative variations were also recorded in fishing net prices (-0.8 percent).

Among imported origin goods that reduced their prices stand out agricultural machinery and equipment such as tractors (-0.9 percent) and lampas (-0.5 percent).

21. The construction materials price index decreased 0.16 percent for the month and 1.70 percent over the last twelve months.

Of the 10 groups that make up the index, the ones that contributed most to the negative result are glass (-2.7 percent), electrical supplies (-1.9 percent), and metal products (-1.2 percent). The glass group presents the largest negative variation, among the main products is tempered glass (-6.1 percent). Additionally, in the electrical supplies group, the price of energy cables decreased (-4.5 percent).

[Chart: Wholesale Price Indices (December 2013 = 100)] X-axis: Jul-98 to Jul-26 Y-axis: 0 to 160 Data points: Oct-09; 88.8, May-21; 115.9, Ene-24; 131.9, Jul-26; 131.2

BCRP STUDY NOTES
No. 55 - August 14, 2026
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[Table: Price Indices]
Month | 12 months | Month | 12 months | Month | 12 months | Month | 12 months | Month | 12 months
| WPI | WPI National | WPI Imported | Machinery & Equipment | Construction Materials |
Dec-20 | 0.65 | 1.56 | 0.66 | 1.04 | 0.63 | 3.27 | -0.31 | 4.79 | 1.45 | 4.99 Dec-21 | 0.36 | 13.58 | 0.20 | 12.82 | 0.87 | 16.01 | 1.05 | 12.64 | 1.07 | 15.40 Dec-22 | -1.11 | 7.03 | -0.82 | 9.28 | -2.05 | 0.03 | -1.10 | 0.34 | -0.16 | 4.77 Mar-23 | -0.51 | 5.68 | -0.21 | 7.49 | -1.56 | -0.18 | -1.18 | 4.98 | -0.30 | 2.93 Jun-23 | -0.75 | 0.51 | -0.59 | 2.42 | -1.29 | -5.78 | -0.72 | 1.18 | -0.54 | -0.42 Sep-23 | 0.13 | -0.22 | -0.05 | 1.61 | 0.80 | -6.28 | 0.81 | -1.73 | -0.12 | -0.81 Dec-23 | -0.72 | -1.04 | -0.58 | 0.05 | -1.22 | -4.75 | -0.77 | 0.17 | -0.71 | -1.39 Mar-24 | -0.41 | -2.52 | -0.07 | -1.95 | -1.62 | -4.52 | -1.69 | 0.98 | -0.42 | -2.17 Jun-24 | -0.01 | -1.23 | -0.10 | -1.31 | 0.32 | -0.94 | 1.01 | 4.34 | 0.03 | -1.03 Sep-24 | -0.39 | -2.38 | -0.45 | -2.47 | -0.18 | -2.08 | 1.00 | 3.60 | -0.08 | -0.42 Dec-24 | -0.29 | -1.38 | -0.22 | -1.39 | -0.52 | -1.33 | -0.70 | 1.88 | -0.28 | 0.21 Mar-25 | -0.15 | -0.97 | 0.12 | -0.72 | -1.15 | -1.88 | -0.94 | -0.03 | -0.17 | -1.07 Jun-25 | -0.34 | -1.17 | -0.26 | -0.65 | -0.65 | -3.03 | -0.58 | -1.53 | -0.25 | -0.61 Sep-25 | -0.35 | -2.92 | -0.18 | -2.22 | -0.99 | -5.43 | -0.64 | -3.86 | -0.35 | -1.22 Dec-25 | -0.07 | -3.83 | -0.01 | -2.46 | -0.27 | -8.69 | -0.33 | -7.18 | -0.20 | -1.77 Ene-26 | 0.07 | -3.86 | 0.16 | -2.36 | -0.28 | -9.18 | -0.16 | -7.48 | -0.03 | -1.89 Feb-26 | 0.38 | -3.14 | 0.42 | -1.71 | 0.25 | -8.28 | 0.17 | -6.56 | -0.02 | -1.61 Mar-26 | 3.11 | 0.02 | 2.98 | 1.09 | 3.61 | -3.86 | 1.54 | -4.23 | 0.88 | -0.57 Abr-26 | 1.42 | 1.24 | 1.35 | 2.27 | 1.67 | -2.46 | 0.36 | -4.58 | 1.13 | 0.42 May-26 | -0.44 | 1.20 | -0.69 | 1.92 | 0.51 | -1.41 | 0.50 | -3.61 | 0.91 | 1.19 Jun-26 | -0.96 | 0.58 | -1.02 | 1.15 | -0.72 | -1.48 | -0.70 | -3.72 | 0.34 | 1.78 Jul-26 | 0.55 | 1.88 | 0.57 | 2.38 | 0.45 | 0.07 | -0.15 | -3.01 | -0.16 | 1.70

BCRP STUDY NOTES
No. 55 - August 14, 2026
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Inflation in regional countries1

22. In June 2026, annual inflation increased in most of the main countries in the region, with the exception of Brazil and Mexico, with only the latter country having inflation within the target range.

23. Underlying inflation had a mixed variation in the countries of the region: it increased in Chile and Peru, decreased in Brazil and Mexico, and remained stable in Colombia. Underlying inflation was within the target range in Chile and Mexico (at the upper limit).

[Chart: Inflation in Latin America (Variation last 12 months)] X-axis: Dec-22 to Jun-26 (for each country) Y-axis: 0.0 to 16.0 Countries: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru Data points (Jun-26): Brazil Total 4.6, Suby. 4.6; Chile Total 4.3, Suby. 3.1; Colombia Total 6.1, Suby. 6.0; Mexico Total 3.4, Suby. 4.0; Peru Total 4.0, Suby. 4.5

1 Prepared by the World Economy Department.

[Table: Inflation Rates]

	May-26	Jun-26	Max	May-26	Jun-26	Max	May-26	Jun-26	Max	May-26	Jun-26	Max	May-26	Jun-26	Max
Total	4.7	4.6	12.1 (apr-22)	3.9	4.3	14.1 (ago-22)	5.8	6.1	13.3 (mar-23)	3.9	3.4	8.7 (set-22)	3.9	4.0	8.8 (jun-22)
Suby.	4.8	4.6	9.7 (jun-22)	2.9	3.1	10.9 (ago-22)	6.0	6.0	10.5 (mar-23)	4.2	4.0	8.5 (nov-22)	4.4	4.5	5.9 (mar-23)

Source: Central banks and national statistics institutes.
BCRPData/NEINF202607G13

24. In June, the variation in food prices increased in most economies, with the exception of Brazil and Mexico. In this country, a lower increase in vegetable prices (especially tomatoes and peppers) was observed, as well as a greater contraction in fruit prices (bananas, pineapple, and grapes) and pork and chicken meat.

Chile had the largest increase in the annual variation of food prices, mainly in beef, bread and bakery products, vegetables and legumes, and potatoes. For the case of Colombia, which continues to register the highest variation, prices remain high for beef, fresh fruits, onions, and potatoes, which compensated for the moderation observed in banana and coffee prices.

BCRP STUDY NOTES
No. 55 - August 14, 2026
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[Chart: Food Prices* in Latin America (Variation last 12 months)] X-axis: Jun-21 to Jun-26 Y-axis: 0.0 to 30.0 Countries: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru

• Brazil and Peru indices include the sub-group of meals outside the home.
  Source: Central banks and national statistics institutes.
  BCRPData/NEINF202607G14

25. Most countries registered a 5 annual variation in energy prices, in line with the decrease in international oil prices resulting from the ceasefire between the USA and Iran reached in the second week of June. In the case of Brazil, lower prices for domestic fuel (natural gas and cylinder) and residential electricity energy were recorded, after the yellow tariff flag was maintained (with an increase in the electricity bill of 1.885 reais for every 100 kWh consumed).

In the case of Chile, the growth in energy prices moderated, mainly vehicle fuel, which compensated for the increase in gas prices.

On the contrary, in Colombia, the increase in vehicle fuel prices remained unchanged, but higher gas prices and electricity tariffs were evident.

[Chart: Energy Prices in Latin America (Variation last 12 months)] X-axis: Jun-21 to Jun-26 Y-axis: -20.0 to 40.0 Countries: Brazil*, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru

• Corresponds to the energy sub-group within the home.
  Source: Central banks and national statistics institutes.
  BCRPData/NEINF202607G15

26. In July, expected inflation for 2026 showed a decreasing trend in most countries in the region, with the exception of Colombia and Peru. This revision for most countries is due to execution below expectations in recent inflation data following a partial normalization of fuel prices and a reversal of food supply shocks (mainly Mexico and Chile). For the year 2026, expected inflation in most countries would be above their target ranges, except for Chile and Mexico, where it would be positioned at the upper limit.

For 2027, expected inflation increased in Brazil, Colombia, and Peru. Despite this, the expected result would be lower than that of 2026 in all countries, so that inflation would be within the target range of the main economies, with the exception of Colombia.

[Chart: Expected Inflation]
X-axis: Jun-21 to Jun-26
Y-axis: -20.0 to 40.0
Countries: Brazil*, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru

• Brazil data point is Jun-26; 7.7
  Chile data point is Jun-26; 13.7
  Colombia data point is Jun-26; 1.4
  Mexico data point is Jun-26; 1.4
  Peru data point is Jun-26; 3.0

BCRP STUDY NOTES
No. 55 - August 14, 2026
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BCRP STUDY NOTES
No. 55 - August 14, 2026
26 / 31
Source: Central banks and national statistical institutes BCRPData/NEINF202607G16 Real Exchange Rate

27. The Multilateral Real Exchange Rate - TCRM - decreased in July (-0.35 percent), mainly due to the decrease in the Multilateral Nominal Exchange Rate - TCNM (-0.20 percent) and, to a lesser extent, due to higher internal inflation compared to external inflation.

BCRPData/NEINF202607G17

5.0
4.0
6.6
4.0
3.9
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Jan-25
Feb-25
Mar-25
Apr-25
May-25
Jun-25
Jul-25
Aug-25
Sep-25
Oct-25
Nov-25
Dec-25
Jan-26
Feb-26
Mar-26
Apr-26
May-26
Jun-26
Jul-26

Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru
Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru
Target Range: 1.5-4.5 2.0-4.0 1.0-3.0
2026 5.0 4.0 6.6 4.0 3.9
2027 4.2 3.0 5.0 3.8 2.5
Jul-26; 96.71
Jul-26; 86.50
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
125.0
Jul-96
Jul-97
Jul-98
Jul-99
Jul-00
Jul-01
Jul-02
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
Jul-22
Jul-23
Jul-24
Jul-25
Jul-26
Multilateral exchange rate
(Indices 2009=100)
Multilateral Nominal Exchange Rate Index Multilateral Real Exchange Rate Index July-2026 Month 12 Months Var. % of TCRM -0.35 -4.44 Var. % of Sol/Basket -0.20 -2.76 Var. % of Nominal TC USD/ -0.13 -4.39 Internal Inflation 0.29 4.07 External Inflation 0.13 2.27 Inflation Expectations 2026 (Variation last 12 months)

BCRP STUDY NOTES
No. 55 - August 14, 2026
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28. The Multilateral Nominal Exchange Rate - TCNM - decreased by 0.20 percent due to the appreciation of the sol against the euro (-0.84 percent) and the Chinese yuan (-0.18 percent). The appreciation of the sol against the euro and Chinese yuan is mainly due to the depreciation of these same currencies against the dollar (0.71 and 0.04 percent, respectively).

BCRPData/NEINF202607G18

-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
Nov-21
Jan-22
Mar-22
May-22
Jul-22
Sep-22
Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
May-23
Jul-23
Sep-23
Nov-23
Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
Sep-24
Nov-24
Jan-25
Mar-25
May-25
Jul-25
Sep-25
Nov-25
Jan-26
Mar-26
May-26
Jul-26
Multilateral Nominal Exchange Rate
(contributions of monthly var.%)
China USA Other developed 1/ Other emerging Asian 2/ Latam 3/ Eurozone 4/ TCNM July-2026 Var.% monthly Var.% 12 months China -0.18 1.18 United States -0.13 -4.39 Other developed 1/ -0.77 -8.67 Other emerging Asian 2/ -0.07 -13.10 Latam 3/ 0.59 3.48 Eurozone 4/ -0.84 -6.42 Sol/Basket TC 1/ Switzerland, United Kingdom, Japan and Canada. 2/ Taiwan, India and South Korea. 3/ Mexico, Ecuador, Colombia, Brazil and Chile. 4/ Italy, Germany, France, Netherlands, Spain and Belgium.

BCRP STUDY NOTES
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BCRPData/NEINF202607C8

29. The TCRM decreased by 4.44 percent year-on-year due to the fall in the TCNM by 2.76 percent and by higher internal inflation compared to external inflation. With this result, the TCRM continues to record consecutive annual decreases since October 2024 and is below its long-term average.

TC um/dollar TC sol/um um/dollar TC sol/um a. Developed countries United States - -0.13 - -4.39 Japan 0.73 -0.86 10.32 -13.33 Canada 0.57 -0.70 3.07 -7.24 Switzerland 1.12 -1.24 1.37 -5.68 Eurozone 0.71 -0.84 2.17 -6.42 United Kingdom -0.54 0.41 0.77 -5.13 b. Asia China 0.04 -0.18 -5.50 1.18 South Korea -2.41 2.33 8.55 -11.93 India 0.89 -1.02 11.24 -14.05 Vietnam -0.13 -0.01 4.52 -8.53
c. Latin America
Brazil -0.22 0.08 -7.48 3.34
Chile 2.71 -2.77 -2.36 -2.08
Ecuador - -0.13 - -4.39
Mexico 0.43 -0.56 -6.61 2.38
Colombia -6.65 6.98 -19.42 18.64
1/ Source: Reuters and SBS.
Nominal Exchange Rate
Var.% Monthly Var.% 12 months
July-2026

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30. The evolution of bilateral real exchange rates in July reflected the results of the evolution of nominal exchange rates. In terms of contributions to the reduction of the TCRM, the decrease in the bilateral real exchange rate - TCRB - with the Eurozone and China stands out.

31. The bilateral real exchange rate - TCRB - with the United States decreased by 0.47 percent in the month, mainly due to nominal appreciation (-0.13 percent).
    Year-on-year, the TCRB decreased by 5.08 percent in July, remaining below its long-term average. This year-on-year reduction in the TCRB is mainly due to the strengthening of the sol against the dollar, which recorded an appreciation of 4.39 percent.

-17.00
-12.00
-7.00
-2.00
3.00
8.00
13.00
18.00
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
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Jan-22
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May-22
Jul-22
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Nov-22
Jan-23
Mar-23
May-23
Jul-23
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Jan-24
Mar-24
May-24
Jul-24
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Nov-24
Jan-25
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May-25
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Jan-26
Mar-26
May-26
Jul-26
Multilateral Real Exchange Rate and Components (12-month percentage variation) 12-month % variation of TCNM Annual inflation differential 1/ 12-month % variation of TCRM 1/ External annual inflation minus internal annual inflation.

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Jul-26/ Jul-26/ Jul-26/ Jul-26/ Jul-26/ Jul-26/ Jun-26 Jul-25 Jun-26 Jul-25 Jun-26 Jul-25 a. Developed countries 37.54 -0.72 -7.48 -0.52 -6.24 0.08 2.69 United States 16.04 -0.47 -5.08 -0.13 -4.39 -0.05 3.31 Japan 3.38 -0.93 -15.29 -0.86 -13.33 0.22 1.71 Canada 4.79 -0.66 -8.35 -0.70 -7.24 0.33 2.82 Switzerland 2.17 -1.52 -8.99 -1.24 -5.68 0.00 0.42 Germany 2.13 -0.79 -8.04 -0.84 -6.42 0.34 2.27 Spain 2.87 -1.10 -7.07 -0.84 -6.42 0.03 3.35 Italy 1.59 -1.06 -7.65 -0.84 -6.42 0.06 2.70 Netherlands 2.28 -0.96 -8.77 -0.84 -6.42 0.17 1.45 Belgium 0.71 -1.08 -7.43 -0.84 -6.42 0.04 2.94 France 0.71 -0.93 -8.55 -0.84 -6.42 0.20 1.70 United Kingdom 0.88 0.29 -6.27 0.41 -5.13 0.17 2.80 b. Asia 49.40 -0.26 -4.07 -0.16 -1.66 0.18 1.52 China 40.15 -0.21 -1.75 -0.18 1.18 0.25 1.06 South Korea 2.43 2.26 -12.61 2.33 -11.93 0.22 3.26 India 6.13 -1.54 -14.48 -1.02 -14.05 -0.24 3.54 Vietnam 0.69 -0.27 -8.07 -0.01 -8.53 0.02 4.60
c. Latin America 13.06 0.40 3.34 0.59 3.48 0.10 3.93
Brazil 3.85 -0.08 3.77 0.08 3.34 0.12 4.50
Chile 2.75 -2.98 -2.51 -2.77 -2.08 0.07 3.61
Ecuador 1.96 -0.15 -6.51 -0.13 -4.39 0.27 1.76 Mexico 2.06 -0.82 1.45 -0.56 2.38 0.03 3.12 Colombia 2.44 6.68 20.69 6.98 18.64 0.01 5.86 AGGREGATE 100.00 -0.35 -4.44 -0.20 -2.76 0.13 2.27 3/ Projected inflation data for most countries. 1/ Weights of international trade with main trading partners in 2025. 2/ Corresponds to the average exchange rate of the month. Sol/UM TC (2009=100) 2/ IPE (2009=100) 3/ Multilateral Exchange Rate (Percentage variations) Wt. 20251/ RER (2009=100) 1/

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You can find the tables and graphs of this report in BCRPData/NEINF202607.

Jul-26; 101.12
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
125.0
Jul-96
Jul-97
Jul-98
Jul-99
Jul-00
Jul-01
Jul-02
Jul-03
Jul-04
Jul-05
Jul-06
Jul-07
Jul-08
Jul-09
Jul-10
Jul-11
Jul-12
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Bilateral Real Exchange Rate-USA
(Index 2009=100)
July-2026 Month 12 Months
Var. % of TCRB -0.5 -5.1
Var. % of Nominal TC USD/ -0.1 -4.4
Internal Inflation 0.3 4.1
US Inflation -0.1 3.3
1/ SBS Average E.X.