Personal Statements of MPC Members for November 2024

Date: Tuesday, 26 November 2024
Ref: CBN/MPC/COM/155/298
Attention: News Editors/Gentlemen of the Press CENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA MONETARY POLICY RATE RAISED BY 25 BASIS POINTS TO 27.50 PER CENT FROM
27.25 PER CENT
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) held its 298th meeting on the 25th and 26th of November 2024 to review recent economic and financial developments as well as assess the risks to the outlook. All twelve members of the Committee were in attendance.

Decisions of the MPC
The Committee was unanimous in its decision to further tighten policy and thus decided as follows:

1. Raise the MPR by 25 basis points to 27.50 per cent from 27.25 per
   cent.
2. Retain the asymmetric corridor around the MPR at +500/-100 basis
   points.
3. Retain the Cash Reserve Ratio of Deposit Money Banks at 50.00 per
   cent and Merchant Banks at 16 per cent.
4. Retain the Liquidity Ratio at 30.00 per cent
   Considerations
   This meeting was held on the backdrop of renewed inflationary pressures, as the headline, food and core measures rose year-on-year in October 2024. The Committee was particularly concerned that all three measures also inched up on a month-on-month basis, suggesting the persistence of price pressures, with attendant adverse impacts on income and welfare of citizens. Members, therefore, agreed unanimously to remain focused in addressing price developments. While food prices remain a key contributor to the uptick, Members commended the efforts of the Federal Government for the improved security, especially in the North-East of the country, which would likely improve food production. The Committee also noted the role of rising energy prices on the general price level due to its impact on factors of production. The recent increase in the price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) has also impacted the cost of production and distribution of food items and manufactured goods. The Committee was optimistic that the full deregulation of the downstream sub-sector of the petroleum industry would eliminate scarcity and stabilise price levels in the short to medium term. Members thus, reiterated the need to strongly forge ahead with the deepening collaboration between the monetary and fiscal authorities to ensure the achievement of our synchronized objectives of price stability and sustainable growth. The Committee noted the improvement in the external sector, reflected by the increase in the current account surplus, enhanced remittance and capital inflows which have impacted the external reserves positively. This, therefore, suggests that key policy measures by both the monetary and fiscal authorities are yielding the desired outcomes. Members, however, expressed concern over persisting exchange rate pressure, reflecting continued high demand in the market. Consequently, the Committee urged the Bank to explore measures to boost market liquidity. Members noted with satisfaction the continued resilience and stability of the banking system despite significant exogenous and endogenous headwinds. Key financial soundness indicators such as the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR), Non-Performing Loan ratio (NPL), Liquidity Ratio (LR), amongst others, remain strong. The MPC, however, called on the Bank to maintain its close surveillance on the banking system to sustain compliance with regulatory thresholds and continued health of the industry. The MPC acknowledged the efforts of the Bank in deepening financial inclusion, towards improving the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to enhance policy effectiveness. From the foregoing, Members thus focused on the optimal policy choice to address the uptrend in price development, stabilize the exchange rate and anchor inflation expectations appropriately. Key Developments in the Domestic and Global Economies Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that headline inflation (year-on-year) rose to 33.88 per cent in October
   2024, from 32.70 per cent in September 2024. On a month-on-month basis, it also rose to 2.64 per cent in October 2024, from 2.52 per cent in the previous month, with both the food and core components contributing to the continued rise in headline inflation. Food inflation rose further to 39.16 per cent in October 2024, from 37.77 per cent in September, while core inflation also rose to 28.37 per cent in October 2024, from 27.43 per cent in September. The MPC, however, noted the moderation in the prices of farm produce and commended the efforts of the Federal Government in driving increased productivity in the agricultural sector. The recovery of output growth was sustained, with Real GDP (year-on-year) growing by 3.46 per cent in the third quarter of 2024 compared with 3.19 and
   2.54 per cent in the preceding and corresponding periods, respectively. The
   growth was driven by both the oil and non-oil sectors, with a notable contribution from the Services sector. The non-oil sector grew by 3.37 per cent in the third quarter compared with 2.80 per cent in the second quarter, while the oil sector grew by 5.17 per cent (year-on-year), compared with 10.15 per cent in the preceding quarter. The external reserves rose marginally to US$40.88 billion as at 21st November 2024 from US$40.06 billion at end-October 2024, available to finance 17 months of imports. At the global level, the IMF projects growth at 3.2 per cent for 2024 and 2025 from 3.3 per cent in 2023. Risks to this outlook, however, include ongoing geopolitical tensions such as the lingering war between Russia and Ukraine as well as the crisis in the Middle East. The deceleration in global inflation is expected to continue into 2025 and move towards the long-run objectives of key central banks in the advanced economies, albeit at a slow pace. This, however, faces a growing risk of reversal as talks of trade tariffs heighten, following the outcome of the November 2024 United States elections. In view of the above developments and identified risks, Members reiterated their commitment to price stability as the bedrock of a thriving Nigerian economy. The next meeting of the Committee is scheduled to hold on the 27th and 28th of January 2025. Thank you. Olayemi Cardoso Governor, Central Bank of Nigeria 26th November 2024 PERSONAL STATEMENTS BY THE MONETARY POLICY COMMITTEE MEMBERS MPC MEETING NOVEMBER 25 – 26, 2024
5. AKU PAULINE ODINKEMELU
   I voted to raise the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 25 basis points to 27.50 per cent, from 27.25 per cent, retain the asymmetric corridor around the MPR at +500/-100 basis points, retain the Cash Reserve Requirement of Deposit Money Banks at 50.00 per cent and Merchant Banks at 16 per cent, and the Liquidity Ratio at 30.00 per cent. My decision was influenced by the following developments:
   Global Economic Developments:
   There has not been any significant change in the global economy since the September Meeting. The global economy remains burdened by uncertainty, even as the IMF projects growth to stabilize at 3.2 per cent in 2024 and 3.3 per cent in 2025 and 2026. Persistent geopolitical tensions, including the Russia- Ukraine conflict, and the Middle East conflict continue to weigh heavily on global economic prospects. The Advanced economies are expected to grow by 1.9 per cent in 2024 and moderate slightly to 1.8 per cent in 2025, while the Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) are projected to achieve growth rates of 4.2 per cent in 2024 and 2025. Sub- Saharan Africa's growth outlook has been revised upward to 3.6 and 4.2 per cent. Global inflation is projected to decelerate in 2024, moving closer to the long- term targets set by central banks in the advanced economies. The IMF forecasts a decline in global inflation from 6.7 per cent in 2023 to 5.8 per cent in 2024 and 4.3 per cent in 2025. This trend is attributed to falling energy prices, a slowdown in wage growth, and tight financial conditions in the advanced economies. Inflation is expected to continue its downward trajectory in 2024 in the advanced economies. This deceleration is supported by relatively high but gradually moderating interest rates as central banks move towards monetary easing. Inflation is projected to decline by 2.0 percentage points, from 4.6 per cent in 2023 to 2.6 per cent in 2024, and moderate further to 2.0 per cent in 2025. Inflation in the EMDEs is projected to remain elevated due to persistent challenges such as exchange rate pressures, inadequate transport infrastructure, and energy shortages, which continue to pose upside risks to inflation. Inflation is expected to ease slightly from 8.1 per cent in 2023 to 7.9 per cent in 2024 and further to 5.9 per cent in
6. In my September statement, I emphasized that these structural factors
   are predominantly non-monetary. However, it remains imperative for the Bank to effectively anchor inflation expectations to ensure price stability amid persistent inflationary pressures. I therefore, supported a further, albeit gradual, rate hike to achieve this objective. Domestic Economic Developments and Outlook The growth data for the domestic economy remains unchanged from September 2024 due to delays in data computation and publication. Year- on-year real GDP increased by 3.19 per cent in Q2 2024, up from 2.98 per cent in Q1 2024, driven primarily by expansion in the oil sector. However, muted growth in the non-oil sector, subdued consumer demand, exchange rate depreciation, elevated interest rates, and rising prices continued to constrain output growth. While growth is positive, addressing the downside risks to growth is critical for stimulating and sustaining the growth trajectory Year-on-Year headline inflation increased to 33.88 per cent in October 2024, from 32.70 per cent in September 2024. This represents a resurgence of inflationary pressures after two consecutive months of decline. Exchange rate depreciation and high energy costs may have accounted for the resurgence. This uptick in inflation influenced my decision to vote for a further but gradual hike. Other factors that influenced my decision are as follows:
   First, is the outlook to domestic inflation, which is projected to increase gradually due to perennial flooding in some food-producing states and high cost of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS). Second, is the year-to-date growth in broad money resulting from the depreciation in the exchange rate through
7. Given the increase in money supply growth, credit has also continued
   to grow, thus keeping aggregate demand relatively strong and putting upward pressure on inflation. As an inflation focused central bank, further tightening of monetary policy is essential to curtail credit growth and moderate aggregate demand.
8. ALOYSIUS UCHE ORDU
   Developments in the Global Economy
   The November 2024 MPC took place against the backdrop of the re-election of Donald Trump as US President an outcome that is already impacting the global economy. A month earlier, during the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank, policymakers in the US and other advanced economies held the view that the battle against inflation was largely won. The IMF thus raised its forecast for US economic growth to 2.8 per cent in 2024 and 2.2 per cent in
9. In the euro area, the IMF projected growth below 1.0 per cent in 2024,
   while Japan will barely grow at all. Overall, the global economy was expected to expand by 3.2 per cent in 2024 which is below the 20-year average of 3.8 per cent. The Fund also projected that global inflation would fall to 3.5 per cent by the end of 2025, quite a drop from the peak of 9.4 per cent in the fall of 2022. This generally upbeat outlook will need to be revisited as Trump's economic agenda (deficit-financed corporate tax cuts, global tariff increases, and mass deportations) is likely to be inflationary. These policies would most certainly lead to a more restrictive Fed stance in the future. On November 7, the Fed cut interest rates by 0.25 percentage point to a target range of 4.5 to 4.75 per cent; this followed the 50 basis points cut earlier in September, the first reduction since 2020. However, in sharp contrast to the September meeting where the Fed stated that “the direction of travel is clear”, the absence of forward guidance was particularly noteworthy in the post-November meeting statement by the Fed chair a reflection of the uncertain outlook in the period ahead. With Trump's re- election, the pace of interest rate cuts may be reduced, with rates likely to stay higher for longer in 2025. D Already, bond prices have fallen and the yields on US Treasury notes have risen on the expectation of larger fiscal deficits. That the dollar strengthens in anticipation of a worsening fiscal position reflects the US's dominant position in the global economy. Though the uncertainty relating to the US election is now over, the policy uncertainty has only just begun with increased focus on tariffs, trade wars, taxes and trillion-dollar deficits. Executing such protectionist US policies will be far much more devastating for the rest of the world. As US interest rates rise relative to those in the rest of the world, an appreciating dollar will weaken global economic outlook and lead to reductions in overall trade volumes. For countries with dollar-denominated debt, a rising dollar will further aggravate their debt burdens. The combination of higher rates and stronger dollar will amount to a global tightening in financial conditions that may prompt other central banks into more rate cuts that further strengthens the dollar. Already, the euro has depreciated, and some market participants anticipate euro-dollar parity later in 2025. The ECB is thus likely to cut interest rates much faster than the Fed, especially as the Eurozone economic conditions are weaker than the US. For China, a Trump tariff will lead to substantial depreciation of the yuan, and this will drag down other emerging markets currencies. Commodities have a long history of trading inversely with the dollar which will adversely impact commodity producers, especially those in Africa. Developments in Africa According to the IMF's Regional Economic Outlook, economic growth in sub- Saharan Africa has continued to diverge with incomes in resource-intensive countries, such as Angola and
   Nigeria, stagnating in contrast to non-resource rich countries such as Ethiopia and Senegal. The performance gap emphasizes the need for more effective fiscal management, improvements in the business environment, economic diversification, and adopting accountable measures to manage natural resource revenues well. As indicated above, the unfolding developments in the global economy suggest a likely worsening in the terms of trade and poor growth prospects for commodity producers. For South Africa, the IMF forecasts economic growth of 1.1 per cent in 2024 and 1.8 per cent next year. This is lower than the 3.0 per cent growth target of the Government of National Unity. However, with a confluence of positive factors (inflation slowed to 2.8 per cent in October which is below target; and improved investor confidence), the Reserve Bank cut interest rate by 25 basis points to 7.75 per cent in November 2024. For Nigeria, CBN Staff statistical brief show that volatile items such as food and energy continued to drive price pressures in October 2024. Food inflation increased to 39.16 per cent; core inflation to 28.37 per cent; and headline inflation to 33.88 during the month. Disaggregated by States, 20 States recorded increased food inflation versus 17 States where food prices declined during the period. Supply chain issues, poor infrastructure and insecurity continued to play key roles in exacerbating inflationary pressures and these factors necessitate expeditious actions by the fiscal authorities. Staff analysis of the FAAC distribution for October 2024 also highlighted other areas that merit the attention of the fiscal authorities. At N10.93 trillion, the Federal deficit is 80 per cent above the projection for the period January to August 2024. There is a shortfall (60.22 per cent) in FAAC and independent revenue receipts. The expenditure side of the ledger shows over-spending on recurrent items and underspending on capital expenditures (51.17 per cent). Debt service payments (foreign) was 176 per cent over budget, with debt-to- GDP ratio of 56 per cent, which exceeds the 40 per cent threshold of the Debt Management Office. The fiscal position and debt dynamics indicated clearly warrant serious attention, including the evident need for greater efficiency in the use of borrowed funds. This will further strengthen Nigeria's ability to conduct fiscal policy which deteriorated slowly over the years. For instance, urgent measures are needed to expeditiously execute development projects and programs at the Federal, State and Local Government levels. This entails a comprehensive review of the nation's huge portfolio of development projects whether these projects are financed by borrowed funds from the multilateral and bilateral lenders or from internally-generated resources. Some of these projects have suffered inordinate delays from previous Administrations with huge undisbursed loan balances outstanding. Such delays are clearly expensive as they unduly
   delay development benefits to Nigerians. In view of the constrained fiscal space, now is the time to re-evaluate the existing stock of projects to determine whether their development objectives are still relevant. Where necessary, undisbursed loan balances of poorly performing projects should be cancelled or reallocated to alternative uses. On the external sector and monetary policy, CBN staff presentations show noteworthy green shoots since the era of tight money began. First, there has been a marked improvement in the current account balance. Q3 2024 data shows a surplus of US$6.29 billion vis-à-vis US$5.14 billion in Q2 2024; and the overall balance of payment position recorded a surplus of US$3.79 billion. Second, the external reserves stood at US$40.88 billion at end-October 2024, a remarkable 16.9 months of import cover. The exchange rate remained relatively stable for most of the second half of 2024, reflecting increased capital inflows on account of attractive yields. Third, tight monetary policy has slowed the rate of credit growth with broad money supply (M3) down by around N1.7 trillion in October 2024 from the preceding month. Credit to the private sector declined by N1.9 trillion during the same period, indicating a slowing down in aggregate demand which will further ease inflationary pressure. The banking sector expects credit demand to continue to wane in the high-interest rate environment. This shock therapy is necessary to correct years of policy missteps and to control inflation. A most welcome development during the MPC meeting was the announced reduction in the PMS price by the Dangote refinery. This will moderate the rise in energy prices as well as transportation and food costs. And the stabilizing naira will also moderate the pass-through effect of the exchange rate which will dampen price pressures. Rationale for my vote. It is not enough for the CBN to be willing to do whatever it takes to fight inflation. It is vital that the Nigerian public also believes that the CBN will indeed follow through. Expectations matter as the CBN's actions affect every aspect of economic life albeit with long, variable lags. Taking account of the available data, our expectation is that inflation will moderate by the end of the first quarter of 2025. Reducing inflation requires consistent long-term actions. Now is thus not the appropriate time to ease off on the inflation pedal. I therefore voted for a 25 basis points increase in the MPR from 27.25 per cent to 27.50 per cent; and a hold on the CRR, the asymmetric corridor and the liquidity ratio.
10. BALA MOH'D BELLO MON
    Opening Statement
    The last Monetary Policy Committee meeting in 2024 was held in an atmosphere of optimism despite the presence of lingering economic challenges. This positive sentiment was largely due to the cumulative impact of earlier increases in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) and several complementary fiscal policy measures that have begun to show favourable outcomes. Notably, we observed moderation in inflation persistence, indicating that previous strategies to manage price developments are gradually having positive effects. Additionally, the external reserves position has improved, providing a buffer against potential economic shocks and enhancing overall financial stability. Also, the trajectory of output growth remains on an upward trend, indicating that the economy is gaining momentum. I also considered recent global developments that could influence our economic situation, including shifts in the trend of international trade and global markets. This comprehensive analysis ultimately guided my decision at the meeting, reinforcing my confidence in the direction of the Committee's monetary policy. Key Considerations On the global front, the International Monetary Fund has projected output growth at 3.2 per cent for 2024 and 2025 from 3.3 per cent in 2023. Risks to this outlook, however, include ongoing geopolitical tensions, such as the lingering war between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the crisis in the Middle East. There is also heightened uncertainty following the outcome of the November 2024 United States elections, with fears of potential disruptions to global trade and the current economic momentum. As a result, stakeholders are urged to closely monitor these developments, as they will play a critical role in shaping the economic landscape in the years to come. Notwithstanding, Nigeria's Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has maintained a positive trajectory, with a growth rate of 3.46 per cent in the third quarter of 2024, compared with 3.19 and 2.54 per cent in the preceding and corresponding periods, respectively. This growth, driven by both the oil and non-oil sectors, with a notable contribution from the Services sector, is a testament to the resilience of our economy. The non-oil sector grew by 3.37 per cent in the third quarter, compared with 2.80 per cent in the second quarter, while the oil sector grew by 5.17 per cent (year-on-year), compared with 10.15 per cent in the preceding quarter. The positive growth momentum, shown by leading indicators and staff forecasts, is expected to persist, providing a sense of stability and progress. Notably, the external reserves position has grown remarkably to US$40.88 billion as of 21st November 2024 from US$40.06 billion at end-October 2024, a development that strengthens the needed buffer to mitigate unforeseen risks and reinforces the importance of ongoing efforts at sustaining improved foreign exchange supply. The rising reserves position, alongside the relatively stable exchange rate, would
    enhance Nigeria's position as an attractive investment destination. The resilience of the domestic economy, bolstered by a strong financial system with robust soundness indicators, instils confidence in the economic structure. Major prudential ratios, such as capital adequacy, liquidity, and Non-Performing Loans ratios, were within prudential limits, reflecting proactive regulatory oversight and strong industry risk management practices. Significant credit was extended to growth-enhancing sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing and general commerce, as well as individuals and households. This credit played a crucial role in stimulating economic activities and supporting output performance, emphasizing the role of financial institutions in the economy. In addition, the results of stress tests showed that bank's solvency and liquidity ratios remained resilient in scenarios of potential severe macroeconomic shocks. Continued vigilance is, however, required to ensure that the banking system remains strong and stable amid lingering risks. Each one of us has a role to play in this, and our collective vigilance is crucial for the stability of our financial system. Although inflation persistence has moderated, headline inflation, rose (year- on-year) to 33.88 per cent in October 2024 from 32.70 per cent in September
11. On a month-on-month basis, it also rose to 2.64 per cent in October
    2024, from 2.52 per cent in the previous month, with both the food and core components contributing to the continued rise in headline inflation. Food inflation rose further to 39.16 per cent in October 2024, from 37.77 per cent in September, while core inflation also rose to 28.37 per cent in October 2024, from 27.43 per cent in September. Recent data indicates a notable moderation in the prices of farm produce, underscoring the federal government's proactive measures aimed at boosting productivity within the agricultural sector. These efforts include initiatives designed to mitigate insecurity in regions critical to food production across the country. Despite these positive developments, risks associated with domestic price fluctuations persist, including climate conditions and increased market demand. As a result, while the current situation shows promise, vigilance and sustained collective efforts at mitigating the risks will be necessary to navigate the challenges ahead. Policy decision While I note the broadly positive domestic trajectory, the uncertain short-term outlook for domestic prices and emerging global headwinds, calls for immediate and coordinated policy support. It is crucial that we strengthen our policies to sustain Nigeria's economic resilience in the face of these challenges. The monetary authority must therefore continuously anchor the expectations of economic agents, given the risks to domestic price movements, and reinforce its commitment to keep inflation in check. The monetary policy response should, however, take cognizance of the need to support output performance, which is important for the sustained resilience of the domestic economy. Over the course of the year, I have voted to tighten the stance of monetary policy to rein in inflation. At this meeting, I found compelling reasons to tighten the stance further, albeit at a slower pace. Therefore, I voted to
12. Raise the MPR by 25 basis points to 27.50 per cent from 27.25 per cent.
13. Retain the asymmetric corridor around the MPR at +500/-100 basis
    points.
14. Retain the Cash Reserve Ratio of Deposit Money Banks at 50.00 per
    cent and Merchant Banks at 16 per cent.
15. Retain the Liquidity Ratio at 30.00 per cent
16. BANDELE A.G. AMOO
    Having reviewed the empirical developments in both the domestic and international economies since the last MPC meeting, I hereby vote as follows:
    (a)Raise the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 25 basis points from 27.25 to
    27.50 per cent.
    (b)Retain the asymmetric corridor around the MPR at +500/-100 basis points. (c) Retain the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 50.0 per cent for Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) and 16.0 per cent for Merchant Banks. (d) Retain the Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 30.00 per cent. My decision is influenced by the following developments. 1 Assessment of Global Growth and Inflation The resilience witnessed in the recent past in global economic outlook continued in November 2024. The steady but slow output expansion continued despite escalating geopolitical tensions which heightened global financial market uncertainty. Global average inflation is falling, giving rise to precipitating monetary policy convergence among advanced economies. The global PMI expanded to 52.3 index points in October 2024, from 51.9 index points in September 2024. The global headline inflation is projected to decrease further from an average of 6.7% in 2023 to 5.8% in 2024 and 4.3% in
17. The downside risks have, however, persisted as escalating geopolitical
    tensions continue to further disrupt commodity prices, and increase fragmentation of trade networks. The current trend of lower policy rates in advanced countries, especially the United States, is expected to persist, despite the ongoing policy vigilance owing to the dynamics of geopolitical tensions. These developments require prudence when designing an optimal policy response to mitigate the impact of global spillovers such as those from attraction of capital inflows and improving exchange rate stability to improve country economic fundamentals. Global trade is projected to further rebound gradually in the last quarter of 2024 and 2025 driven by declining inflation and a fast-recovering Europe, Asia and US economies. Consequently, it is expected to rise to 3.1% in 2024 and 3.4% in 2025, indicating significant shifts in trade patterns, amidst identified challenges. Global debt continued to surge, driven largely by increased borrowing by India, China and Mexico. 2 Domestic Economic Developments and Outlook Domestic economic activities continued to be resilient in November 2024 when compared with October 2024 (Pre-MPC). Data from the NBS showed that economic growth in Nigeria recorded modest increase as at third quarter of 2024. The economy grew by 3.46% YoY (vs. 3.19% YoY in Q2:2024). Growth in the quarter was spurred by expansion in both the oil (+5.17% YoY vs. 10.15% YoY in Q2:2024) and non-oil (+3.37% YoY vs. 2.80% YoY in Q2:2024) sectors. The services sector led the growth of the nonoil sector contribution while the manufacturing and industries sectors posted negative contributions. For 2024 full year data, we still expect the services sector to continue to propel further growth, especially the financial and ICT sectors. Financial system resilience remains solid. Banking industry resilience in terms of capital and liquidity was also confirmed by the latest stress tests. Furthermore, the health parameters of banks and other depository corporations continued to be strong. The Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) also remained stable at 14% while the NPLs and Liquidity ratio slightly fell to
    4.6 and 56.2 percent respectively when compared to their levels the previous
    month. The financial soundness indicators stood well to absorb risk and support credit growth effectively. Meanwhile, non-performing loans (NPL), as a proxy of credit risk, were also low (4.8%) in October 2024. However, credit growth was reportedly constrained by the current level of CRR set at 50%. It is believed that the CBN will continue to strengthen synergy with other regulators to sustain financial system stability. Nigeria's Balance of Payments (BOP) position remained stable to support our external sector stability. The BOP provisionally recorded a surplus in the 3rd Quarter of 2024 driven by positive balances in the current account and net asset acquisition positions. The overall account positively stood at US$3.79billion as at Q3 of 2024. Meanwhile, portfolio inflows remain high, recording a net inflow US$0.59 billion as at November 2024. The total foreign exchange flows through the economy stood at US$6,175billion in September 2024 compared with US$2,570.6billion in August 2024. Furthermore, foreign reserves at the end of October 2024 stood at US$39.68billion, equivalent to several months of import cover. External reserves is projected to further increase by year end due to expected reduction in import demand pressures arising from the full deregulation of the downstream oil sector, reduced petroleum products importation regime, increased inflows and other process management by the CBN. Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported that the headline inflation rate for October 2024 was 33.88% from 33.20% in September 2024 and 27.33% in September 2023. Food inflation stood at 39.16% in October 2024 compared to 31.52% in September 2023 and 36.22% in September 2024. Core inflation moved from 26.23% in September 2024 to 28.37% in October
18. A further breakdown of the inflation data shows that Food and Non-
    Alcoholic beverages were the major drivers of both year-on-year and month- on-month Headline inflation, contributing 16.65 and 1.15% respectively. Opinion survey from the states showed that insecurity, production cost, subsidy issues, exchange rate depreciation are the main factors driving inflation in Nigeria. Improved agricultural activity in recent months, occasioned by decline in banditry/insecurity, improved supply of farm inputs, brighten the prospects of expanded agricultural output. To further assure improved outcome on these concerns