Monetary Program June 2026

Monetary Program
June 2026
1
12 June 2026

The Board of Directors of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP) agreed to maintain the reference interest rate at 4.25 percent. 2 Nominal and Real Reference Interest Rates (in percentage) Source: BCRP.

• With inflation expectations.
  4.25
  1.36
  -4.0
  -2.0
  0.0
  2.0
  4.0
  6.0
  8.0
  10.0
  Jun-17
  Aug-17
  Oct-17
  Dec-17
  Feb-18
  Apr-18
  Jun-18
  Aug-18
  Oct-18
  Dec-18
  Feb-19
  Apr-19
  Jun-19
  Aug-19
  Oct-19
  Dec-19
  Feb-20
  Apr-20
  Jun-20
  Aug-20
  Oct-20
  Dec-20
  Feb-21
  Apr-21
  Jun-21
  Aug-21
  Oct-21
  Dec-21
  Feb-22
  Apr-22
  Jun-22
  Aug-22
  Oct-22
  Dec-22
  Feb-23
  Apr-23
  Jun-23
  Aug-23
  Oct-23
  Dec-23
  Feb-24
  Apr-24
  Jun-24
  Aug-24
  Oct-24
  Dec-24
  Feb-25
  Apr-25
  Jun-25
  Aug-25
  Oct-25
  Dec-25
  Feb-26
  Apr-26
  Jun-26
  Nominal Reference Rate Real Reference Rate * Jun. 25 Jul. 25 Aug. 25 Sep. 25 Oct. 25 Nov. 25 Dec. 25 Jan. 26 Feb. 26 Mar. 26 Apr. 26 May. 26 Jun. 26 (I) Nominal Rate 4.50 4.25 (II) Inflation Expectations 2.27 2.28 2.19 2.18 2.16 2.19 2.16 2.13 2.03 2.14 2.52 2.82 2.89 (III) Real Rate: (I) - (II) 2.23 2.22 2.31 2.07 2.09 2.06 2.09 2.12 2.22 2.11 1.73 1.43 1.36

3
Real Ex-Ante Monetary Policy Interest Rates in Latin America * (in percentage)

• Monetary policy rates and expectations updated as of 10 June 2026.
  Source: Central Banks.
  The reference interest rate has been the lowest among the main countries in the region since 2020. Brazil 14.50 4.64 9.86 Colombia 11.25 5.70 5.55 Mexico 6.50 4.14 2.36 Chile 4.50 3.30 1.20 Peru 4.25 2.89 1.36 Country Nominal Interest Rate Inflation Expectation 12 months Real Ex-Ante Rate

3.90 3.91 3.94 4.20
4.72
5.84
0.20
-0.16 -0.21
0.47 0.58 0.47
-1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
Chile Peru Mexico USA Brazil Colombia 12-months Monthly 4 In May, the monthly inflation rate was negative, standing at -0.16 percent, while inflation excluding food and energy was 0.09 percent. The decrease in monthly inflation was mainly due to lower prices of some food items. Inflation Rates by Country* (in percentage)

• As of May 2026
  Source: Central banks and national statistics institutes.

5
On a year-on-year basis, the total inflation rate decreased from 4.0 percent in April to 3.9 percent in May, while inflation excluding food and energy remained at 4.4 percent in the same period, staying above the target range.

• The transport item is estimated using the INEI report.
  Source: INEI and BCRP.
  Inflation: May 2026 *
  (percentage variations) Wgt.
  Month 12 months Month 12 months Month 12 months CPI 100.0 2.4 3.8 0.5 4.0 -0.2 3.9

1. CPI excluding food and energy 55.3 2.1 3.7 0.9 4.4 0.1 4.4
   Excluding transport 46.1 0.5 1.5 0.1 1.5 0.1 1.6 Goods 17.4 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.7 Services 37.9 3.0 5.1 1.2 6.1 0.1 6.1 Transport 9.1 9.1 14.1 4.0 18.1 -0.2 18.2 Education 8.6 2.9 3.4 0.0 3.4 0.1 3.4 Water supply 1.4 0.0 10.3 0.0 10.3 0.0 10.3 Other services 5.0 0.2 2.4 0.3 2.5 0.4 2.7
2. Food and energy 44.7 2.7 4.0 0.1 3.6 -0.5 3.3
   a. Food and beverages 40.0 2.2 4.4 0.1 3.8 -0.7 3.2 b. Fuels and electricity 4.8 8.8 -0.2 0.7 0.9 2.2 3.9 Fuels 2.1 20.1 11.8 0.4 13.5 0.2 14.4 Vehicle fuels 1.1 30.9 23.3 2.8 28.4 0.1 29.5 Domestic gas 0.8 12.5 3.6 -2.9 1.6 0.3 2.6 Electricity 2.6 -0.4 -9.7 0.9 -8.9 4.2 -4.4 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26

In May, the percentage of CPI items with year-on-year variation greater than 3 percent was 36 percent, similar to that observed in April. This indicates that the increase in inflation corresponds to few items. Dispersion Index and Percentage of CPI items with year-on-year price variation greater than 3 percent Source: INEI and BCRP. 6 May-26; 36.2 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 May-05 May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17 May-18 May-19 May-20 May-21 May-22 May-23 May-24 May-25 May-26

Average 2001-
2026: 39
Average around the 2 percent: 27 May-25 Jun-25 Jul-25 Aug-25 Sep-25 Oct-25 Nov-25 Dec-25 Jan-26 Feb-26 Mar-26 Apr-26 May-26 Index 30 36 36 35 32 36 35 34 34 33 36 Number of items:
Items with variation greater than 3% 57 56 57 67 68 65 61 68 66 64 64 62 68 Items with variation less than 3% 131 132 131 121 120 123 127 120 122 124 124 126 120

0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
Feb-07
Jul-07
Dec-07
May-08
Oct-08
Mar-09
Aug-09
Jan-10
Jun-10
Nov-10
Apr-11
Sep-11
Feb-12
Jul-12
Dec-12
May-13
Oct-13
Mar-14
Aug-14
Jan-15
Jun-15
Nov-15
Apr-16
Sep-16
Feb-17
Jul-17
Dec-17
May-18
Oct-18
Mar-19
Aug-19
Jan-20
Jun-20
Nov-20
Apr-21
Sep-21
Feb-22
Jul-22
Dec-22
May-23
Oct-23
Mar-24
Aug-24
Jan-25
Jun-25
Nov-25
Apr-26
Target Range of
Inflation
Maximum
Minimum
2.89
Source: BCRP. 7
Twelve-month inflation expectations increased from 2.8 percent in April to 2.9 percent in May, remaining within the inflation target range. 12-month inflation expectations of analysts and the financial system (in percentage) Macroeconomic Expectations Survey: Inflation (in percentage) Note: Twelve-month inflation expectations are calculated as the simple average of the 12-month expectations of the financial system and economic analysts. For each of them, an estimate of the 12-month expectation is obtained by weighting the expectation for the current year by the number of months remaining and the expectations for the following year by the number of months left to complete the 12 months. 1/ 18 analysts in March, 16 in April, and 20 in May 2026. 2/ 14 financial companies in March, 14 in April, and 14 in May 2026. 3/ 282 non-financial companies in March, 278 in April, and 278 in May 2026. 4/ Twelve-month inflation expectations are calculated as the simple average of the 12-month expectations of the financial system and economic analysts. 31 Mar. 30 Apr. 29 May. ECONOMIC ANALYSTS 1/ 2026 2.80 3.15 3.50 2027 2.25 2.50 2.60 2028 2.25 2.37 2.35 FINANCIAL SYSTEM 2/ 2026 2.45 2.80 2.95 2027 2.15 2.50 2.25 2028 2.15 2.25 2.20 NON-FINANCIAL COMPANIES 3/ 2026 2.30 2.50 2.80 2027 2.30 2.50 2.50 2028 2.30 2.50 2.50 12 MONTHS 4/ 2.52 2.82 2.89 Survey conducted on:

8
Leading indicators of economic activity as of May continue to show good performance. Capital Goods Imports * (real year-on-year % var.) Internal IGV * (real year-on-year % var.) Durable Consumer Goods Imports * (real year-on-year % var.)

• May information is preliminary.
  Source: SUNAT, INEI and BCRP.
  Internal Cement Consumption * (year-on-year % var.) 2.9 10.1 0.8 -0.7 -3.3 -10.2 -0.2 23.1
  29.0 27.1 30.0
  18.3
  30.8
  38.1
  FY.23
  II
  III
  IV
  FY.24
  II
  III
  IV
  FY.25
  II
  III
  IV
  FY.26
  Apr.-May. 26
  0.1
  4.7
  0.1
  8.9 8.1 8.5 9.8
  7.6
  24.9
  13.9
  16.2 17.5
  10.6
  24.6
  FY.23
  II
  III
  IV
  FY.24
  II
  III
  IV
  FY.25
  II
  III
  IV
  FY.26
  Apr.-May. 26
  -3.9 -6.6 -4.4 -3.4
  1.9 1.3
  7.8 9.1 9.3
  5.9 3.9
  6.8 8.3
  19.0
  FY.23
  II
  III
  IV
  FY.24
  II
  III
  IV
  FY.25
  II
  III
  IV
  FY.26
  Apr.-May. 26
  -15.4
  -13.4
  -8.6 -9.3
  -0.2 0.0 -0.6
  1.6 2.7
  5.8
  8.3
  12.5
  14.4
  11.3
  FY.23
  II
  III
  IV
  FY.24
  II
  III
  IV
  FY.25
  II
  III
  IV
  FY.26
  Apr.-May. 26

9
Monetary aggregates, credit, and card transactions continue to show high dynamism. Circulation * (nominal year-on-year % var.)

• May information is preliminary.
  Constant exchange rate.
• Without gas stations, financial entities, and government.
  Source: BCRP, Niubiz and Izipay. Total Credit (nominal year-on-year % var.) Total Liquidity (nominal year-on-year % var.) Card Transactions * (nominal year-on-year % var.) 15.8 10.6
  3.9 4.3
  8.6
  10.5
  18.7
  15.2
  10.3
  7.4
  0.2
  7.0
  11.2
  12.5
  FY.23
  II
  III
  IV
  FY.24
  II
  III
  IV
  FY.25
  II
  III
  IV
  FY.26
  Apr.-May. 26
  -3.0 -3.9
  -6.2 -6.0 -4.6
  0.6
  8.7
  11.6 12.5 13.6
  11.3
  13.0
  18.1 18.4
  FY.23
  II
  III
  IV
  FY.24
  II
  III
  IV
  FY.25
  II
  III
  IV
  FY.26
  Apr.-May. 26
  1.1
  2.2
  1.2 1.8
  3.5
  6.0
  10.1
  11.7
  10.2
  8.4
  6.4
  8.5
  13.8 14.5
  FY.23
  II
  III
  IV
  FY.24
  II
  III
  IV
  FY.25
  II
  III
  IV
  FY.26
  Jan.-Apr. 26
  2.9
  1.8
  0.8 1.1
  0.5 0.9
  0.1
  -0.1
  1.2
  1.8
  4.4
  6.0
  7.2 7.6
  FY.23
  II
  III
  IV
  FY.24
  II
  III
  IV
  FY.25
  II
  III
  IV
  FY.26
  Jan.-Apr. 26

10
In the month, most of the current situation and expectations indicators from the survey conducted by the Central Bank continue to be in the optimistic range, and a recovery was observed in most expectation indicators. Source: BCRP. Entrepreneurs' expectations about the economy and the sector in 3 months (Diffusion Index) Results of the Macroeconomic Expectations Survey Source: BCRP. March April May Correlation 2026 with GDP 1/ CURRENT BUSINESS SITUATION 55.6 56.6 > 56.4 ~ > 0.56 SALES LEVEL 56.5 56.4 ~ > 56.2 ~ > 0.49 PRODUCTION LEVEL 51.2 57.1 > 57.9 > 0.44 DEMAND LEVEL WITH RESPECT TO EXPECTATIONS 47.0 47.6 < 47.0 < 0.68 PURCHASE ORDERS WITH RESPECT TO THE PREVIOUS MONTH 56.5 54.6 > 51.5 > 0.52 UNWANTED INVENTORY DAYS 2/ 8.9 9.4 ⬆ < 9.5 ~ < -0.36 EXPECTATION OF:
THE ECONOMY IN 3 MONTHS 52.0 44.6 < 46.2 < 0.63 THE ECONOMY IN 12 MONTHS 60.0 51.2 > 55.9 > 0.42 THE SECTOR IN 3 MONTHS 55.0 51.1 > 50.0 = 0.67 THE SECTOR IN 12 MONTHS 62.1 56.5 > 58.8 > 0.33 THE SITUATION OF YOUR COMPANY IN 3 MONTHS 57.1 55.1 > 53.8 > 0.66 THE SITUATION OF YOUR COMPANY IN 12 MONTHS 65.1 60.9 > 63.4 > 0.66 DEMAND FOR YOUR PRODUCTS IN 3 MONTHS 61.4 55.6 > 56.5 > 0.66 DEMAND FOR YOUR PRODUCTS IN 12 MONTHS 68.8 65.5 > 66.3 > 0.66 PERSONNEL HIRING IN 3 MONTHS 54.9 52.9 > 53.2 > 0.66 PERSONNEL HIRING IN 12 MONTHS 60.7 57.8 > 59.0 > 0.58 YOUR COMPANY'S INVESTMENT IN 3 MONTHS 3/ 60.3 55.8 > 57.2 > 0.65 YOUR COMPANY'S INVESTMENT IN 12 MONTHS 3/ 65.1 60.5 > 63.7 > 0.65 EXPECTED AVERAGE PRICE OF:
INPUTS IN 3 MONTHS 64.5 66.7 ⬆ > 60.7 ⬇ > 0.63 SALES IN 3 MONTHS 59.0 61.8 ⬆ > 61.2 ⬇ > 0.59

: greater than 50
< : less than 50

~ : Indicates that the monthly difference of each diffusion index is not greater, in absolute value, than 0.2. Arrows up or down indicate that this threshold was exceeded, while the "-" sign implies that the index did not vary. 1/ Correlations found from December 2007 to December 2019 respectively. For current situation indicators, the contemporaneous correlation is shown, and for the rest of the expectations, the correlation with GDP is presented. 2/ Unwanted inventory days show the difference between the inventory days corresponding to each month minus the desired inventory days according to companies. 3/ Correlation with Private Investment from September 2017 to December 2019, considering optimal lag (t=-3 for 3-month investment and t=-6 for 12-month investment) 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 May-16 Jan-17 Sep-17 May-18 Jan-19 Sep-19 May-20 Jan-21 Sep-21 May-22 Jan-23 Sep-23 May-24 Jan-25 Sep-25 May-26 Economy Sector Optimistic Range Pessimistic Range May-26: 50 May-26: 46

50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
31-Dec-25
07-Jan-26
14-Jan-26
21-Jan-26
28-Jan-26
04-Feb-26
11-Feb-26
18-Feb-26
25-Feb-26
04-Mar-26
11-Mar-26
18-Mar-26
25-Mar-26
01-Apr-26
08-Apr-26
15-Apr-26
22-Apr-26
29-Apr-26
06-May-26
13-May-26
20-May-26
27-May-26
03-Jun-26
10-Jun-26
11
Global risk remains elevated due to the conflict in the Middle East, which is reflected in high volatility in financial markets and international oil prices. WTI Spot Quotation * (USD/bbl.)

• Quotation as of 11 June.
  Source: Reuters.
  Price / Var. % Jun.26* / Dec.25 WTI (Spot) 52.8 WTI (Future Dec-26) 41.1

12
Despite this, the outlook for global economic activity growth this year remains positive, and the terms of trade remain favorable for the Peruvian economy. Terms of Trade (Index 100 = 2007) Source: BCRP. * Corresponds to the annual average. Projection from the March 2026 Inflation Report. Source: BCRP. Terms of Trade * (percentage variation) 12.2 19.9 11.5 2024 2025 2026 124 119 130 144 190 186 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-24 Apr-24 Jul-24 Oct-24 Jan-25 Apr-25 Jul-25 Oct-25 Jan-26 Apr-26

13
Taking into account that most of the inflation is associated with supply-side factors estimated to be temporary, it is projected that both year-on-year inflation and inflation excluding food and energy will return to the target range within the projection horizon, and will be around 2 percent in 2027, as the effects of these supply shocks dissipate. The Board remains particularly attentive to new information on inflation and its determinants, including the evolution of underlying inflation, inflation expectations, economic activity, and the duration of supply shocks, in order to make, if necessary, adjustments in the monetary policy stance. The Board reaffirms its commitment to taking the necessary actions to guarantee the return of inflation to the target range within the projection horizon. Inflation (12-month percentage variation) Source: INEI. 3.9 4.4 1.6 3.3 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 Jul-21 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22 Jan-23 Mar-23 May-23 Jul-23 Sep-23 Nov-23 Jan-24 Mar-24 May-24 Jul-24 Sep-24 Nov-24 Jan-25 Mar-25 May-25 Jul-25 Sep-25 Nov-25 Jan-26 Mar-26 May-26 CPI Inflation excluding food and energy Core Inflation excluding transport Food and energy Core Inflation excluding transport CPI Inflation excluding food and energy Food and energy Maximum Target Range of Inflation Minimum

Monetary Program
June 2026
14
12 June 2026