National Reserve Bank of Tonga Warns of Import Price Shock Risks to Inflation

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Press Release: Tonga’s Price Stability Outlook Vulnerable to Import Price Shocks

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National Reserve Bank of Tonga
Fasi mo e Afi
Nuku'alofa

(676) 24057

(676) 24201

nrbt@reservebank.to

29 May 2026

Tonga’s Price Stability Outlook Vulnerable to Import Price Shocks

The ongoing Middle East conflict remains a material external risk to Tonga’s domestic price outlook and broader economic conditions. Three months since the escalation of the conflict, uncertainty remains elevated, particularly around key global energy and shipping routes that affect downstream supply of fuel to Tonga through regional hubs including Singapore and Fiji. While global oil prices have shown some volatility, the risks of prolonged disruption beyond May 2026 continue to place upward pressure on import prices for fuel, shipping costs, and supply chains.

Domestic Inflation

The latest annual headline inflation rose to 5.5% in April 2026, exceeding NRBT’s reference rate for the first time in 16 months, since January 2025. The increase was driven mainly by imported items contributing about 4.5 percentage points to headline inflation. Transportation services contributed the most with around 2 percentage points and imported food with 1.5 percentage points. Domestic food services (restaurants) added 1 percentage points with Kava prices rounding up the top 4 contributors.

Core inflation remained elevated at 9.5%, broadly unchanged from the previous month and higher than 8.7% in April 2025. This indicates that, while external price pressures remain important, underlying domestic price pressures also continue to warrant close monitoring.

Outlook

Governor Tatafu Moeaki stated that “Overall inflation outlook remains subject to upside risks from global fuel and import price shocks to food imports, freight costs and expects the headline inflation to remain above the 5% reference rate in the near term with possibility of reaching double figures in this calendar year. Second-round inflation risks are heightened with Tonga’s import-dependent and price taker economy. Local fuel prices were revised upwards in May together with a 35.8% hike in the electricity tariff for the next three months.”

NRBT will continue to monitor local food prices and other key inflation indicators to assess whether external price pressures are beginning to feed into broader domestic demand-side inflation and will consider policy response as appropriate.

In the meantime, NRBT continues its efforts to modernize its monetary policy tools so that its policy decisions will have greater impact on the market and inflation.

29 May 2026.

For further enquiries please contact:

Office of the Governor

National Reserve Bank of Tonga

Telephone: (676) 24-057; email: Vasi Feke
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webpage:
www.reservebank.to

Vā tamaki ‘i he Hahake Lotoloto

ʻOku kei tu’u lavea ngofua pē ‘a e fakafuofua ki he totongi koloa fakalotofonua ‘a Tongaˊ pea mo e tuʻunga fakaʻekonomika fakalukufua´ tupu mei he kei hokohoko atu ‘a e vā tamaki ‘i he Hahake Lotolotoˊ. Hili eni e māhina ʻe tolu mei he kamata e vā tamaki ‘i he Hahake Lotolotoˊ, ‘oku kei tu’u ta’epau ‘a e ngaahi tūkunga´, pea tautautefito ki he ma’u’anga ivi mo e halanga vaka ki hono uta mai ‘o e koloa lolo´ ‘a ia te ne uesia e lahi ‘o e lolo ‘oku hū mai ki Tonga ni ‘o fakafou ‘i he ngaahi halanga vaka fakafeitu’u ‘o kau ai ‘a Singapoa mo Fisi. Neongo ‘oku hā mai ha ngaahi fetōkaki ‘i he totongi lolo fakamāmāni lahi´, ka ʻoku ngalingali ke toe loloa ange ‘a e ngaahi uesia ko eni mei Mē 2026, ‘a ia ‘e toe malava pē ke toe ma‘olunga ange ‘a e totongi ‘o e koloa lolo hū maiˊ, ngaahi fakamole ki he uta koloa vakatahiˊ pea mo uesia ‘a e ngaahi halanga ki he hū koloa mai mei tu’apule’anga´.

Hikihiki 'i he Totongi Koloa Fakalotofonua

Naʻe kake ʻa e hikihiki fakata’u ‘i he totongi koloa fakalukufuaˊ ki he peseti ‘e 5.5 ʻi ʻEpeleli 2026, ‘a ia ko e fuofua taimi eni ʻi he māhina eni ʻe 16 kuohiliˊ, talu mei Sanuali 2025ˊ, ke laka hake ‘i he tu’unga fe’ungaˊ ko e peseti 'e 5. Naʻe makatuʻunga ʻa e hiki΄ni mei he totongi ‘o e ngaahi koloa hū maiˊ ʻa ia naʻa ne tānaki atu ‘a e peseti poini ʻe 4.5 ki he hikihiki fakata’u e totongi koloaˊ. Ko e totongi ki he fefonongaʻakiˊ na’e lahi taha ‘ene hikiˊ ‘o ne tānaki atu e meimei peseti poini ʻe 2 pea peseti poini ʻe 1.5 ‘a e koloa meʻakai hū maiˊ. Naʻe tānaki atu ʻe he totongi ki he ngaahi sēvesi ki he meʻakai fakalotofonuaˊ (falekai) ʻa e peseti poini ʻe 1 pea pehē foki mo e totongi ʻo e kavaˊ ‘a ia ko e ngaahi koloa eni ‘e 4 ne lahi taha ‘enau kau ki he hikihiki fakata’u ‘i he totongi koloaˊ.

Naʻe kei maʻolunga pē ʻa e hikihiki 'i he totongi koloaˊ ‘o ikai kau heni 'a e lolo mo e me’akai (core inflation) ʻi he peseti ‘e 9.5, ʻo ʻikai liliu lahi mei he māhina kimuʻaˊ pea maʻolunga ange ʻi he peseti ‘e 8.7 ʻi ʻEpeleli 2025ˊ. ʻOku hā heni, neongo ʻoku kei mahuʻinga pē ʻa e vakai ki he ngaahi feliuliuaki ‘i he totongi koloa hū maiˊ, ka ʻoku kei fiemaʻu pē ke siofi ofi ʻa e ngaahi feliuliuaki ‘i he totongi koloa fakalotofonuaˊ.

Fakafuofua ki he Kaha’u´

Na’e fakahā ‘e Kovana Tatafu Moeaki, “Ko e fakafuofua ki he tu’unga ‘o e hikihiki ‘i he totongi koloa

fakalukufua ՛ ki he kaha’u´, ‘oku malava ke toe ma’olunga ange ‘i hono uesia ‘e he tu’unga ‘e ‘i ai ‘a e totongi lolo fakamāmani lahi ՛ pea mo e hikihiki ‘o e totongi

koloa me’akai hū mai ՛, totongi tute ՛ pea ‘oku fakafuofua ‘e hokohoko atu ai pē ‘a e ma’olunga ‘a e hikihiki e totongi koloa fakata’uˊ ‘i he tu’unga fe’unga ko e peseti ‘e 5 ‘i he kaha’u vave maiˊ, pea ‘oku ngalingali ‘e a’u ki he mata’i fika tu’u lōua՛ ‘i he ta’u ՛ ni.

‘E toe lahi ange foki ‘a e ngaahi uesia ‘i he hikihiki ‘o e totongi koloa՛ koe’uhi ՛ ko e fakafalala ‘a Tonga ՛ ni ‘i he koloa hū mai mei muliˊ pea mo e ‘ikai ke ‘i ai hatau mafai ki hono totongi ՛.

Naʻe toe hiki hake foki ʻa e totongi lolo fakalotofonuaˊ ʻi Mē fakataha mo e hiki peseti ‘e 35.8 ʻa e totongi ʻuhilaˊ ki he māhina ʻe tolu ka hokoˊ.

‘E hokohoko atu pē ‘a hono muimui’i ‘e he Pangikē Puleˊ ‘a e totongi ‘o e ngaahi koloa me’akai fakalotofonuaˊ pea pehē ki he ngaahi koloa tefito kehe ‘oku՛ ne uesia ‘a e hikihiki ‘o e totongi koloa ՛ ke siofi pē kuo hanga ‘e he ngaahi uesia ‘o e totongi koloa ‘i tu’apule’anga ՛ ‘o fakatupu ha hikihiki fakalūkufua ‘o e totongi koloa fakalotofonuaˊ tupunga mei he lahi ‘a e fiema’u՛, mo ha ngaahi fokotu’utu’u ngāue ki ai. ‘Oku kei hokohoko atu pē ‘a e feinga ‘a e Pangikē Puleˊ ke fakalelei’i ‘a e ngaahi fokotu’utu’u ngāue fakapa’anga՛ ke fakapapau’i ‘e kaunga lelei ‘a e ngaahi tu’utu’uni ՛ni ki he māketi ՛ pea mo e hikihiki ‘o e totongi koloa ՛.

29 Mē 2026.

Ki ha toe fakaikiiki, kataki ʻo fetuʻutaki:

‘Ofisi e Kovana

Pangikē Pule Fakafonua ‘a Tonga

Telefoni: (676) 24-057; ‘imeili: Vasi Feke
This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
;

uepisaiti:
www.reservebank.to

The National Reserve Bank of Tonga (Reserve Bank) was established on 1 July 1989 as the central bank of Tonga.

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