Public Notice: Tonga Maintains Neutral Stance While Strengthening Monetary Policy Transmission

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Press Release

28 August 2026

Public Notice: Tonga Maintains Neutral Stance While Strengthening Monetary Policy Transmission

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National Reserve Bank of Tonga
Fasi mo e Afi
Nuku'alofa

(676) 24057

(676) 24201

nrbt@reservebank.to

28 August 2026

Public Notice: Tonga Maintains Neutral Stance While Strengthening Monetary Policy Transmission

Policy Decision: The National Reserve Bank of Tonga (NRBT) Board of Directors has approved “maintaining a neutral monetary policy stance for the next six months”. The monetary policy rate will remain at 2 percent, the interest rate corridor will be maintained at 0 – 4 percent, and the Statutory Reserve Deposit rate will remain unchanged at 15 percent.

Headline inflation increased to 9.3% in July 2026, well above the NRBT 5% reference rate and highest since January 2024. This increase is adding to costs of living for households and raising costs for businesses, placing further strain on already constrained budgets. Inflation has been driven mainly by external supply-side shocks and, while elevated, remains below the higher level projected for second half of 2026.

Governor Moeaki stated that “domestic demand pressures appear contained, foreign reserves adequate, the financial system remains stable. At the same time, NRBT continues to strengthen monetary policy transmission as part of its broader modernization so that monetary policy can more effectively influence liquidity, interest rates, credit conditions and ultimately inflation.”• While headline inflation is expected to remain above the reference rate in the immediate term, it is expected to ease below the reference rate by end of FY2027 as global uncertainties and climate change continue to pose risks to this outlook.

• The Government’s targeted FY2027 fiscal support to ease impact of external supply shocks and high inflation are helpful to reduce the cost pressures on households and businesses, including temporary assistance for electricity and outer-island transport, support for the elderly and people with disabilities, and concessional financing for SMEs and businesses.
• Foreign reserves remained above required thresholds and are expected to stay adequate in the near term whilst the medium-term outlook is tilted to the downside, reflecting heightened uncertainty.
• Excess liquidity has declined in June 2026, reflecting growing confidence of the market in NRBT Notes as the new norm of monetary policy operations. Credit growth moderated to 4.9 percent in June 2026, with interest rates broadly stable.
• Published estimate of real GDP growth for FY2025 at 4.4 percent, much higher than expected where growth is expected to moderate in 2026 and 2027.

The stance will remain data-dependent where NRBT stands ready to adjust monetary policy if demand-side inflationary pressures, or second-round effects intensify. To guide its assessment, NRBT will closely monitor core inflation and second-round effects, domestic credit and liquidity conditions, foreign reserve adequacy and exchange-rate pressures, remittance and imported-price developments, and progress in absorbing excess liquidity through NRBT Notes.

27 August 2026.
Electronic copy of the MPS is available from our website www.reservebank.to or email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
For further details, please contact: Economics Department, Telephone: (676) 24 057; Email:
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Fanongonongo: Tu’uma’u pē Tu’utu’uni Fakapa’anga Pāngike Pule ‘a Tonga΄, pea Hoko atu hono Fakamālohia e Ngāue mo e Ola ‘a e Ngaahi Fokotu’utu’u Ngaue Fakapā’anga΄.

Tu’utu’uni Ngāue: Ku o tali ‘e he Poate ‘a e kau Talēkita ‘o e Pangikē Pule Fakafonua ‘a Tonga´ (NRBT) ke “hoko atu e tu’unga tu’u tau’ataina e tu’utu’uni fakapa’anga ki he māhina ‘e ono ka hoko´”. ʻOku kei tuʻu maʻu pē ʻa e tuʻutuʻuni fakapaʻanga ʻi he peseti ʻe 2, hoko atu hono ngāue‘aki e matapā (corridor) ki he totongi tupu΄ ‘i he peseti ‘e 0–4, pea mo tu’uma’u ‘i he peseti ‘e 15 ‘a e lahi ‘o e fakahū pa’anga ‘i he ngaahi pangikē´ ‘oku tu’utu’uni’i ke tauhi talifaki ‘i he Pangikē Pule´.

Na’e hiki hake totongi koloa fakalūkufua´ ki he peseti ‘e 9.3 ‘i Siulai 2026, ‘o mā’olunga ange ia ‘i he tu’unga fe’unga ‘a e Pangikē Pule ko e peseti ‘e 5, pea koe hiki ma’ulonga taha eni talu mei Sanuali 2024. Ko e hiki ko eni ‘e toe fakalahi mo mamafa ange ai ‘a e fakamole ki he ngaahi famili´ mo e fiema’u faka’aho´ pea hiki mo e ngaahi fakamole ki he ngaahi pisinisi´ ke faingata’a’ia ange ai hono totongi. Na’e makatu’unga ‘a e hiki e totongi koloa´ he mamafa ange hono ngaohi mo hono uta mai mei tu’apule’anga, pea neongo ‘ene ma’olunga,ˊ ka ‘oku kei ma’ulalo ange eni 'i he ngaahi fakafuofua ne ‘amanaki ‘e a’u ki ai 'i he konga hono ua ‘o e 2026.

Na’e pehē ‘e Kovana Moeaki, “‘Oku hā mai ko e hiki e totongi koloa ‘oku ‘ikai ke teke mei he lahi mo e tukunga e fiema’u fakalotofonua´, pea ‘oku 'i he tu’unga lelei pe ‘a e pa’anga talifaki ‘a e Pule’anga ‘i muli´, pea tokamalie ‘a e sisitemi fakapangikē. 'I he taimi tatau, ‘oku hoko atu ‘a e ngāue ‘a e Pāngike Pule ki hono fakamālohia ‘a e halanga ngāue ‘a e tu’utu’uni ngāue fakapa’anga´. Ko e konga eni ‘o ‘ene feinga ke fakaeonopooni ‘a ‘ene ngaahi me’angāue fakapa’anga ke malava ai ‘o mālohi ange ‘a ‘ene ngāue mo leva’i e pa’anga ngāue ‘a e ngaahi pangikē´, ngaahi totongi tupu´, ngaahi makatu’unga fakaenoo´, pea mahu’inga taha ‘ene tokoni ke holo e hikihiki 'i he totongi koloa´”.

• Neongo ‘oku fakafuofua ke hokohoko atu ‘a e mā’olunga e tu’unga hikihiki e totongi koloa ‘i he kaha’u vave mai´, ka ‘oku fakafuofua ke ma’ulalo hifo ‘i he tu’unga fe’unga´ ‘i he faka’osinga ‘o e ta’u fakapa’anga 2027. ‘Oku hokohoko atu hono fakafe’ātungia ‘e he ngaahi tu’unga ta’epau fakamāmani lahi mo e feliuliuaki ‘o e ‘ea ‘a e fakafuofua´ ni.

• ‘Oku tokoni ‘a e ngaahi fokotu’utu’u ‘a e Pule’angaˊ ‘i he’ene Patiseti ki he ta’u fakapa’anga 2027 ki hono fakasi’isi’i ‘a e uesia ‘oku fakahoko ‘e he ngaahi fakatamaki mei tu’apule’angaˊ ‘i he tafa’aki fa’unga koloa´ pea mo e hikihiki lahi ‘i he totongi koloa´. ‘Oku kau ki ai ‘a e ngaahi tokoni ki he totongi ‘uhila´, fefononga’aki fakalotofonua´, tokoni ki he kau toulekeleka´ pea mo e kakai faingata’a’ia, pea mo hono fakapa’anga ‘i ha ngaahi founga ma’ama’a ange ‘a e fiema’u mei´ he ngaahi kautaha iiki mo e ngaahi pisinisi´.

• Na’e kei ma’olunga ange pē ‘a e pa’anga talifaki ‘a e Pule’anga ‘i muli ‘i he tu‘unga fe‘unga ‘oku fiema’u ke ‘i aiˊ pea ‘oku ‘amanaki ke kei fe’unga pē ‘i he kaha’u vave mai.Ka ‘oku ‘i ai e fakafuofua ke holo ‘i he taimi lōlōa atu´ koe’uhi ko e kei ‘i he tu’unga ta’epau ‘a e ngaahi fakafuofua fakamāmani´.

• Kuo holo hifo ‘a e pa’anga hulu ‘ikai ngāue’aki ‘e he ngaahi pangikē΄ ‘i Sune 2026, ‘o ha mei heni ‘a e lahi ange ‘a e falala ʻa e māketi´ ‘a ia kuo hoko ‘a hono tuku atu ʻo e Nouti ‘a e Pangikē Puleˊ ko e founga angamaheni ia ʻo hono fakahoko ʻo e tuʻutuʻuni fakapaʻanga. ʻI he taimi tatau, naʻe māmālie ʻa e tupu ‘i he ngaahi nō ki he peseti ʻe 4.9 ʻi Sune 2026, pea naʻe kei tu’uma’u pē ʻa e ngaahi totongi tupu.

• Na’e tuku mai ‘e he Potungāue Sitetisitika ‘a Tonga´ ‘a ‘ene fuofua lipooti ki he tupu faka’ekonōmika ma’ae ta’u fakapa’anga 2025 ko e peseti ‘e 4.4, ‘o mā’olunga ange ‘i he ngaahi fakafuofuaˊ. Kaekehe, ‘oku fakafuofua ke māmālie ‘a e tupu faka’ekonōmika´ ‘i he ta’u ‘e 2 ki he 3 ka hoko maiˊ.
  'E kei fakafalala e tuʻutu’uni ko eni mei he ngaahi fakamatala ‘oku ma’u mai´ pea ‘oku tu’u mateuteu ‘a e Pangikē Puleˊ ke liliu ‘a e tu’utu’uni fakapa’anga ‘o kapau ‘e fakautuutu ange hono teke ‘e he ngaahi fiema’u fakalotofonua´ ‘a e hikihiki e totongi koloa´ pē ko e ho’ata mai ha uesia lahi ange 'i he hikihiki e totongi koloa makatu’unga mei´ he ngaahi hiki kimu’a´. Ke tataki ‘ene ngaahi tu’utu’uni´, ‘e hoko atu hono siofi ofi ‘e he Pangikē Puleˊ ‘a e hikihiki 'i he totongi ‘o e ngaahi koloa tefito´ mo e ngaahi uesia 'i he takai hono ua ‘a e hikihiki´, ngaahi tu’unga 'i he nō fakalotofonua mo e lahi ‘o e pa’anga ngāue, tu’unga fe’unga ‘o e pa’anga talifaki ‘a e Pule’anga 'i muli´ mo e ngaahi pole 'i he tu’unga ‘o e fakafetongi pa’anga muli´, ngaahi fakalakalaka 'i he tafa’aki ‘o e talafi pa’anga´ mo e totongi hū koloa mai´, pea mo e fakalakalaka ‘a hono holoki ‘o e hulu 'i he ngaahi pa’anga ngāue ‘a e ngaahi pangikē´ ‘o fakafou 'i he fakatau ‘o e Nouti ‘a e Pangikē Puleˊ mo hono fetuku ki he ‘Akauni Ngāue ‘a e Va’a Pa’anga (Treasury Single Account).

27 ‘Aokosi 2026.
ʻOku lava ke maʻu atu ʻa e tatau fakaʻilekitulonika ʻo e Fokotu’utu’u Ngāue Fakapa’anga mei heʻemau uepisaiti www.reservebank.to pe ‘imeili This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
Ki ha toe fakaikiiki, kataki ʻo fetuʻutaki ki he: Va’a ʻEkonōmika, Telefoni: (676) 24 057; ‘Imeili This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

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---------- NGATA’ANGA ----------

The National Reserve Bank of Tonga (Reserve Bank) was established on 1 July 1989 as the central bank of Tonga.

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